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Can Benfica steady the ship at the Luz as wounded Estrela come to town? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Benfica are unbeaten in 33 league games and face an Estrela side that just conceded five goals at home. With Benfica averaging 16 shots and Estrela conceding 1.88 goals per away match, a heavy home victory at the Luz is the most probable outcome.
Read Rationale ▾
Benfica have only conceded 11 goals this season and dominate 58% of possession. Estrela’s defensive fragility, highlighted by their recent 5-0 loss, makes a 3-0 clean sheet win for the hosts a strong value selection for the scoreline.
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Benfica vs Estrela Amadora Predictions and Best Bets
Benfica vs Estrela Amadora — bet365 Market Snapshot
Informational snapshot. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds. Prices can change. 18+ GambleAware.
Illustrative probabilities derived from current match day pricing.
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- Relentless league run: Benfica are unbeaten in 33 Primeira Liga matches, winning 24 and drawing nine, with just six draws from 18 games slowing their title push.
- Firepower meets fragility: Benfica have scored 38 league goals from 16.1 shots per game, while Estrela Amadora have conceded 32 goals and were hit for five last time out.
- Away-day warning signs: Estrela Amadora have managed four wins in their last 25 away league games, conceding an average of 1.88 goals per away match.
Offensive Intensity: Shots and Scoring
A look at the attacking volume generated per match compared to domestic scoring totals.
Benfica’s constant pressure is reflected in their high shot count, resulting in 38 goals so far this campaign.
Estrela generate fewer scoring opportunities, reflected in their season total of 23 goals.
Defensive Metrics: Goals Conceded
Visualising the defensive stability of both sides across the current season.
The hosts have maintained a disciplined back line, conceding fewer than one goal per match on average.
A high concession rate, including five in their last outing, suggests ongoing defensive struggles.
There’s a clear demand at Estádio da Luz: lift the mood and move on. Benfica come into Sunday’s fixture after a bruising few weeks, with cup exits piling up and Champions League hopes fading fast following defeat in Turin. The pressure has shifted squarely onto domestic matters, where dropped points — not defeats — have been the real frustration.
League form, however, still offers reassurance. A 2-0 win at Rio Ave last weekend stretched Benfica’s unbeaten Primeira Liga run to 33 matches, even if too many home draws have left them playing catch-up in the title race. Estrela Amadora arrive with scars of their own, reeling from a 5-0 home loss to Estoril, their heaviest top-flight defeat in almost 18 years. Both sides need a response — but for very different reasons.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Benfica: J. Fins Veloso (shoulder), H. Pereira Araújo (muscle), R. Ríos (shoulder), G. Prestianni Gross (international duty)
Benfica — possible starting XI
Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Manu; L. Cabral, Barreiro, Sudakov; Pavlidis
Estrela Amadora — possible starting XI
Ribeiro; Encada, Schappo, Patrick, Otavio; Moreira, Robinho, Sola; Stoica, Pinho, Jovane
What it means
- Benfica’s structure remains familiar, with Vangelis Pavlidis leading the line after scoring 17 league goals, supported by creative runners either side.
- Estrela’s back line faces a serious examination, especially given their issues defending set pieces and through balls, areas Benfica repeatedly target.
Managers: José Mourinho (Benfica) vs João Nuno (Estrela Amadora)
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Liga Portugal) | Benfica | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 12th |
| Points | 42 | 19 |
| Goals scored | 38 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 32 |
| Shots per game | 16.1 | 11.3 |
| Possession | 58.0% | 47.6% |
| Pass accuracy | 85.8% | 79.9% |
The numbers underline a familiar pattern. Benfica dominate territory and the ball, generate far more shots, and defend their box efficiently. Estrela operate with less possession and rely on moments — but those moments dry up quickly when pinned deep for long spells.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Benfica on the front foot
Benfica control games high up the pitch. Short passing, constant movement, and aggressive positioning in the opposition half are central to their approach. With 85.8% pass accuracy and nearly 16 shots per game, the pressure is relentless once they settle.
The wings are key. Benfica are very strong attacking down the flanks, and full-backs push high to overload wide areas before cutting inside through runners like Sudakov and Barreiro. When that rhythm clicks, the box fills quickly around Pavlidis, who combines aerial strength with sharp movement.
Estrela’s counter-punch plan
Estrela Amadora are far more comfortable defending deep and breaking. They’re strong on the counter and capable of long shots and direct balls into space, particularly through Kikas and Jovane. Their ability to respond after going behind is also notable.
The concern is defensive resistance. Estrela struggle defending set pieces, through balls, and skilful players, all areas Benfica specialise in. Long periods without the ball also increase the risk of individual errors — already a recurring issue this season.
Where it tilts
This fixture is likely shaped by territory. Benfica’s volume of dangerous attacks dwarfs Estrela’s, and sustained pressure usually leads to corners, second balls, and repeated waves. If Estrela can’t slow the tempo early, the pitch will tilt sharply towards their own box.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early pressure at the Luz: Benfica often settle after the first sustained spell; Estrela must survive that opening surge.
- Set pieces: Benfica defend them well and attack them even better, while Estrela remain vulnerable.
- Discipline under strain: Estrela concede fouls in dangerous areas, and Benfica have the technical quality to exploit them.
What could go wrong?
For Benfica, individual mistakes remain the soft spot — a loose pass can undo long spells of control. For Estrela, another heavy concession could unravel confidence quickly if the game runs away from them.
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The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Benfica: 38 goals; Estrela: 23 goals | Home Handicap |
| Defense | Benfica: 11 conceded; Estrela: 32 | Clean Sheet |
| Away Form | Estrela: 4 wins in 25 away games | Home Win |
| Shooting | Benfica: 16.1 shots/gm; Estrela: 11.3 | Over 2.5 Goals |
Benfica -2 Handicap (Match Result)
Benfica enter this match as overwhelming favorites for a reason. They have maintained a 33-match unbeaten streak in the Primeira Liga, a run built on clinical finishing and a rigid defensive structure. Facing an Estrela Amadora side that was recently dismantled 5-0 at home by Estoril, the gap in quality is substantial.
The statistics highlight a mismatch in every department. Benfica average 16.1 shots per game and control 58% of the ball. This sustained pressure will likely overwhelm an Estrela defense that has already conceded 32 goals this season. Because Estrela concede an average of 1.88 goals per away match, they lack the defensive resistance required to withstand the waves of attacks led by Vangelis Pavlidis.
Furthermore, Benfica’s proficiency from wide areas and set pieces directly exploits Estrela’s primary weaknesses. Estrela struggle to defend through balls and aerial deliveries, which are central pillars of José Mourinho’s tactical setup. With Benfica having scored 38 goals in the league, they have the firepower to win by at least a three-goal margin.
Estrela’s away record is poor, with only four wins in their last 25 league outings. This lack of travel comfort, combined with the psychological impact of a heavy recent defeat, means Benfica will have the freedom to dominate from the opening whistle. Expect the hosts to maintain their relentless pace until the game is out of reach.
What could go wrong?
Individual errors are the primary concern for the hosts. If Benfica commit a loose pass during their high-possession spells, Estrela’s counter-attacking threat through Kikas and Jovane could result in a goal that narrows the margin.
Correct Score Lean
Benfica 3-0 Estrela Amadora
Benfica’s defensive record is elite, having conceded only 11 goals in the league. They defend set pieces effectively and control territory, which limits opposition opportunities. Estrela Amadora, coming off their heaviest defeat in 18 years, are likely to adopt a damage-limitation approach. However, Benfica’s average of 16.1 shots per game suggests they will eventually break through multiple times. A 3-0 scoreline aligns with Benfica’s scoring rate and Estrela’s defensive struggles on the road.
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