Italy vs Turkey: Azzurri can tighten grip as visitors face uphill battle. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Italy’s recent 4-1 win over Turkey and resilience in a 1-1 draw with France highlight their momentum. Turkey’s poor form and key attacking absences contrast with Italy’s scoring strength, while Italy’s defensive vulnerability suggests Turkey can still score, making this combined market a logical choice.
A 3-1 scoreline fits Italy’s scoring form and Turkey’s defensive issues, with Italy conceding in all group games but consistently allowing just one goal in recent wins. Missing key Turkish attackers and Italy’s refreshed attack support this exact score prediction, though defensive improvements could alter the outcome.
Italy and Turkey meet for the second time in eight days on Monday, with Roberto Mancini’s side aiming to build on an emphatic victory in Bursa and keep themselves firmly in contention in Nations League Group 1.
Italy vs Turkey — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Selection requires Italy to win the match in normal time.
Italy and Turkey bring contrasting strengths, leaving this market finely balanced.
Italy hold one clear edge, but Turkey still carry enough threat to respond.
Italy hold one clear edge, but Turkey still carry enough threat to respond.
Three Punchy Stats
- Italy won the reverse fixture 4-1, establishing a three-goal lead before half time.
- Turkey have conceded seven goals across their last two Nations League matches.
- Italy are still searching for their first clean sheet of the campaign, having conceded in all three group games.
Goals Scored in Last 5 Matches
Recent attacking records for Italy and Turkey are shown below.
Clean Sheets in Last 5 Matches
Recent defensive records for Italy and Turkey are shown below.
The Azzurri ran out 4-1 winners in the reverse fixture before earning a 1-1 draw away to France, while Turkey arrive in Bologna after three successive group defeats and with several important attacking players unavailable.
Italy building momentum under Mancini
Mancini’s second spell in charge began badly with a home defeat to Belgium, but Italy have responded encouragingly. Their four-goal display in Turkey showcased the potential of a younger-looking side, before Friday’s draw in Paris provided evidence of greater resilience.
Gianluigi Donnarumma was particularly important against France, making seven saves as Italy recovered from falling behind. Alessandro Bastoni supplied the equaliser, scoring for a second successive international appearance after also finding the net in Bursa.
Those results leave Italy third in Group 1 on four points, two behind Belgium and three behind leaders France. With France and Belgium still to come in their final two fixtures, Monday represents a significant opportunity to collect three points.
Mancini also has scope to freshen his team. Nicolo Barella and Gianluca Mancini could return after starting on the bench against France, while Antonio Vergara is pushing for greater involvement following an impressive international debut as a substitute.
Pio Esposito offers another intriguing option. The striker has scored at a rate of one goal every two matches across his 12 Italy appearances and could again feature alongside brother Sebastiano, although Moise Kean and Gianluca Scamacca provide further competition.
Turkey running out of room for error
Turkey's introduction to Nations League A has proved unforgiving. A narrow 1-0 defeat against France was followed by the 4-1 home loss to Italy and a 3-0 reverse in Belgium.
That sequence has increased the pressure on Vincenzo Montella, whose side have now lost five of their last six matches. Another defeat would leave their prospects of remaining in the top tier looking increasingly bleak.
More immediately, Montella faces a substantial selection problem. Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz are suspended, while Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are injured. Removing that much attacking quality from a team already struggling for results makes the trip to Bologna particularly difficult.
Merih Demiral is expected to captain Turkey again in Calhanoglu’s absence, but the visitors need improvement at both ends after conceding seven goals across their last two Nations League matches.
Italy have the recent head-to-head record firmly in their favour too, winning three of the teams’ last four meetings. Their performance in Bursa demonstrated how quickly they can punish Turkey once space appears, racing into a three-goal lead before half time.
Turkey may nevertheless see some encouragement in Italy’s defensive record. Mancini’s men are yet to keep a clean sheet in this Nations League campaign, conceding against Belgium, Turkey and France. That offers the visitors some hope of threatening even with their depleted attacking options.
The balance of the supplied form, availability and recent head-to-head evidence, though, points strongly towards Italy. The Azzurri have responded positively since their opening defeat, while Turkey arrive short of both confidence and several of their most influential players.
How Pick 1 Settles
Italy to win and both teams to score is a combined market that requires two separate outcomes to occur simultaneously. For this selection to win, Italy must win the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, AND Turkey must score at least one goal. If Italy draw, lose, or win while keeping a clean sheet (e.g., 1-0 or 2-0), the entire bet loses.
How Pick 2 Settles
Correct Score (3-1) demands exact precision. The match must finish with exactly three goals for Italy and exactly one goal for Turkey at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Any other final scoreline results in a losing bet.
Other opportunities in this market
Over 2.5 Goals: This selection requires the match to produce at least three total goals across 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It trades the higher price of a Correct Score bet for a wider safety net, winning on scorelines such as 2-1, 3-0, or 2-2, but it loses if the match finishes with zero, one, or two total goals.
Match Result (Italy): Backing the hosts in the standard match odds market requires only that Italy win the game in normal time. It removes the necessity for Turkey to score, sacrificing the larger odds of a combined market for a much simpler settlement condition.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Italy to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Italy vs Turkey 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Italy to win and both teams to score @ 9/5
Italy’s strong response to an opening defeat makes them clear favourites, and coupling the home win with both teams to score fits the pattern of their recent matches. Roberto Mancini’s side established momentum with a 4-1 victory over Turkey just eight days ago, before demonstrating further resilience to earn a 1-1 draw against France. Those results leave the Azzurri firmly in contention in Group 1 on four points, requiring a victory in Bologna to maintain pressure on leaders France and second-placed Belgium.
The prospect of an Italian win is strengthened by the stark contrast in recent trajectories, with Turkey arriving on the back of five defeats in six matches. Vincenzo Montella’s men have conceded seven times across their last two Nations League fixtures, including that heavy loss in Bursa where Italy repeatedly punished the space that appeared. However, the Azzurri have shown consistent defensive vulnerability of their own, conceding against Belgium, Turkey and France to remain without a single clean sheet in this Nations League campaign.
Turkey’s ability to capitalise on that lack of Italian shutouts is hindered by severe attacking absences, with Arda Guler, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz all unavailable. That depletion is a significant obstacle for the visitors, but Italy’s ongoing failure to keep opponents out provides a credible basis for the away side finding the net regardless. The overall evidence points to the hosts possessing too much momentum for a struggling Turkish side, making the combined selection a logical approach in a fixture where defensive perfection remains elusive for Mancini’s men.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Italy won the reverse fixture 4-1 just eight days ago, establishing a three-goal advantage before half time.
- Turkey have lost five of their last six matches, struggling significantly in Nations League Group 1.
- Roberto Mancini’s side have conceded in all three of their group games so far, failing to secure a clean sheet against Belgium, Turkey, or France.
Risk Factor: Turkey's severe attacking absences could leave them unable to score the single goal required for the BTTS element to win.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Scored four against Turkey eight days ago, establishing a dominant three-goal lead before half time.
Conceded seven goals across their last two Nations League fixtures, losing five of their last six matches.
⚔️ Pick 2: Italy vs Turkey 3-1 @ 9/1
A 3-1 victory for Italy aligns closely with the goalscoring form demonstrated by the hosts and the specific defensive issues affecting the visitors. Italy require a decisive result to close the gap on Group 1 leaders France, and their recent meeting with Turkey provides a clear precedent for multiple goals. The Azzurri established a three-goal advantage before half time during that 4-1 win in Bursa, with Alessandro Bastoni currently supplying an additional threat after finding the net in two successive international appearances.
The evidence for Turkey conceding at least three times is rooted in their broader Nations League struggles. Montella’s side have now suffered three consecutive group defeats, allowing seven goals across their two most recent outings against Italy and Belgium. With Turkey requiring a positive result to avoid remaining anchored in their section, any space left behind is liable to be exploited by an Italian side that recently introduced younger players and refreshed their attacking options, including Pio Esposito, who averages a goal every two matches across his 12 Italy appearances.
While Turkey are missing four crucial attackers through suspension and injury, justifying a solitary away goal relies on Italy’s established inability to secure a clean sheet. The Azzurri have conceded in all three of their Nations League assignments so far, proving they offer opponents opportunities regardless of the personnel involved. An exact-score market remains heavily exposed to a single missed chance or unexpected goal, but the combination of Italy’s scoring form and their consistent concession of exactly one goal in their two most recent positive results makes 3-1 a coherent conclusion.
Risk Factor: Italy's returning starters could improve defense, turning a 3-1 prediction into a 3-0 clean-sheet victory.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Both Teams to Score market?
Both teams must score at least one goal each in 90 minutes plus stoppage time for this market to win.
How does a Match Result and BTTS bet settle?
The selected team must win and the opposing team must also score at least once for the bet to win.
Why are Italy heavily favoured in the betting?
Italy recently beat Turkey 4-1 and Turkey have lost five of their last six matches.
What happens to an Over 2.5 Goals bet if the match finishes 1-1?
The bet loses because only two total goals were scored, below the required three.
How does the Correct Score market function?
It settles on the exact final scoreline at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Who is missing for Turkey in this match?
Turkey are missing Arda Guler, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Kenan Yildiz due to suspension and injury.
