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Can Toulouse’s aerial edge and central ambition disrupt Lens’ counter-attacking machine at Stadium de Toulouse? Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Everton's attacking output is consistently high, averaging over 10 shots and 50 dangerous attacks per game. Their aerial strength makes them favorites at home. However, their weakness in defending through balls and counters aligns with Sunderland's direct style.
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This scoreline reflects Everton's superior attacking metrics and home advantage while acknowledging their defensive vulnerabilities that Sunderland's creative players are capable of exploiting.
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Toulouse vs Lens Predictions and Best Bets
Toulouse vs Lens — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on illustrative probabilities from match data.
Lens’ league-leading form is reflected in the market, though Toulouse’s home advantage keeps the pricing competitive.
Implied probabilities derived from match analysis point toward high-likelihood tight margins.
- Title-chasers with a platform: Lens are 1st with 37 points from 16 Ligue 1 games, scoring 28 and conceding 13, a combination that points to control and efficiency.
- Aerial dominance you can build a plan around: Charlie Cresswell averages 4.4 aerials won per game, while Toulouse are rated “very strong” in aerial duels, shaping how they can defend crosses and set pieces.
- Shot volumes suggest a busy night: Lens average 13.9 shots per game and Toulouse 12.2, which hints at sustained attacking sequences and why second balls and box protection may decide key phases.
Efficiency: Total League Goals Scored
Both teams have shown high goal-scoring capacity across their first 16 Ligue 1 matches of the campaign.
Their 12.2 shots per game average underpins a consistent offensive threat that has seen them reach the top half.
Generating 13.9 shots per game, the visitors have translated pressure into the league’s top position.
Tactical Battle: Aerial Dominance
Individual defensive statistics highlight a specific area where the home side may hold a physical advantage.
Charlie Cresswell’s individual dominance in the air is a key component of the home side’s defensive profile.
Lens (108) and Toulouse (83) both frequently win corners, making the aerial duel statistics particularly relevant.
Lens head into Friday’s trip to Stadium de Toulouse with the sort of problem every club pretends not to enjoy: being top brings pressure, and every away day comes with a target on your back. Still, it’s a decent way to start 2026. Matchday 17 offers Les Sang et Or the chance to stretch their advantage at the summit, with Lens sitting on 37 points from 16 games — a point clear of Paris Saint-Germain — and arriving off a 2-0 win over Nice in their final league outing of 2025.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have nudged their way up to eighth with 23 points, buoyed by a 3-0 victory over Paris FC. There’s a confidence to their recent run too: three wins in their last six in all competitions, including that emphatic Paris FC result and a 1-0 league win over Strasbourg. For a team described as “very strong” at coming back from losing positions and “very strong” at creating scoring chances, the message is pretty clear: they don’t need to dominate a match to make it feel uncomfortable.
What makes this one especially interesting is that both sides’ profiles point to an assertive, chance-heavy contest. Toulouse are labelled as a team that “take a lot of shots” and “attack through the middle”, while Lens are “very strong” on counter-attacks and also “very strong” at creating scoring chances. Put that together and you can imagine long spells where Toulouse try to play, Lens try to spring, and the midfield becomes a tug-of-war for who gets to dictate the next five minutes.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Toulouse’s possible starting lineup is: Restes; McKenzie, Cresswell, Nicolaisen; Sidibe, Vossah, Casseres, Methalie; Hidalgo, Gboho; Emersonn.
That points towards a back three with wing-back-ish width from Djibril Sidibé and Dayann Méthalie, and two players operating behind a central forward. Yann Gboho is the obvious creative spearhead: five league goals, and he’s listed as an attacking midfielder/forward who can drift and combine. Santiago Hidalgo is another interesting name in that line, not least because he has two goals and two assists despite mostly coming off the bench, which hints at a player used in bursts and in moments.
There are, however, clear availability complications. Frank Magri is listed as suspended, Abu Francis has a tibia and fibula fracture, and Dayann Méthalie is listed with a knee injury. Those notes directly collide with the proposed XI, which includes Méthalie and does not include Magri anyway. In practical terms, it means Toulouse’s midfield and left-sided balance may look different to the “possible” XI on the page, and any rotation there could affect how aggressively they can press and how cleanly they can build.
Lens’s possible starting lineup is: Risser; Ganiou, Baidoo, Sarr; Aguilar, Sangare, Thomasson, Udol; Thauvin, Said; Edouard.
That reads as the 3-4-2-1/3-4-1-2 family Lens have leaned on, with Robin Risser in goal, a back three anchored by Malang Sarr, and width from Ruben Aguilar and Matthieu Udol. Udol’s presence is especially notable: he has five assists and a 7.18 rating, and that is huge production from the left side of a back-three system. In the half-spaces, Florian Thauvin and Adrien Thomasson look like the connectors who can turn transitions into chances, and the front end is as direct as it gets: Wesley Saïd and Odsonne Édouard have 13 league goals between them (six and seven).
On selection stability, both sides are tagged as having a consistent first eleven, which usually shows in automatisms: wing-backs knowing when to jump, midfielders covering without looking, and forward pairings understanding the timing of runs. The caveat here is Toulouse’s injury/suspension list, which may force adjustments.
How the Match Could Be Played
This is a game that practically begs to be discussed through the middle of the pitch. Toulouse are described as attacking through the middle, taking lots of shots, attempting crosses often, and playing aggressively. They also carry a weakness for keeping possession of the ball, which is a fascinating tension: the intent is front-foot, but the control isn’t always there.
Lens, for their part, are described as attacking down the right, attacking through the middle, attempting crosses often and taking lots of shots. More importantly, they are “very strong” on counter-attacks and “strong” at stealing the ball from the opposition. That combination is basically a warning label for Toulouse’s build-up. If Toulouse try to punch passes into the centre and miss one, Lens are structurally set to turn that into a sprint the other way.
The mirror back-three shapes add another layer. When both sides have three centre-backs, the spare man often depends on where the wide players stand. If Toulouse’s wing-backs push high, they can pin Lens’s wide men and keep the ball in Lens territory. But if Lens win the ball and Udol or Aguilar have space to drive into, the pitch suddenly becomes very big for the nearest Toulouse centre-back. Those are the moments Lens have made a habit of thriving on, and it’s why Toulouse’s rest-defence — the positions they hold when attacking — may matter as much as their attacking patterns.
There’s also a really specific clash in the air. Toulouse are rated “very strong” in aerial duels, and the individual numbers reinforce it: Charlie Cresswell averages 4.4 aerials won per game, by far the standout in the match. Lens aren’t described in the same way, but they do have multiple centre-backs with solid aerial output, and Édouard offers a natural target. This could shape where Toulouse choose to defend: if they’re comfortable in the air, they may allow wider deliveries and focus on protecting the cut-back zone, trusting Cresswell and Rasmus Nicolaisen to deal with the first ball.
Conversely, Lens’s weakness profile includes being “very weak” at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas and “weak” at defending against long shots. Toulouse’s attacking identity includes taking a lot of shots, and their strengths include creating chances through individual skill and attacking set pieces. That’s not subtle. If Toulouse can get Lens facing their own goal, they may be able to draw fouls around the box and manufacture the type of second-phase situations where a loose clearance becomes a shooting chance.
If this turns into a rhythm game, Lens might actually be fine with that. They’ve won their last six Ligue 1 matches, and they’re unbeaten at half-time in their last 12 league games — which suggests they are comfortable feeling their way into matches, staying organised, and then making their quality count when the pattern is understood.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Lens’s league campaign has been built on both production and control. They’ve scored 28 goals in 16 Ligue 1 matches while conceding only 13, which underlines a side that can create enough to win games without trading chaos for entertainment. Their 13.9 shots per game reinforces the idea that this isn’t a team living off a couple of moments; they generate volume.
Toulouse’s numbers tell a story of their own. They’ve scored 24 in 16, with 12.2 shots per game. That shot volume fits their style tag of taking a lot of shots, and it matters because it suggests they can land punches even when they don’t have the ball much. Their average possession is listed at 40.0%, which aligns with the “keeping possession of the ball” weakness: they can be dangerous without necessarily being dominant.
Passing efficiency is another useful lens. Toulouse are at 80.5% pass accuracy, Lens at 84.2%. That gap isn’t enormous, but in a match where Lens are strong at stealing the ball, it can be the difference between a clean progression and a turnover that becomes a counter.
Set-piece and territory indicators pop up too. Lens average 6.35 corners per game (108 total across 17 played games in the broader summary block), while Toulouse average 4.88 (83 total). Corners aren’t goals, but they are repeated pressure — and in a match where Toulouse are strong in the air and Lens are very strong at attacking set pieces, those dead-ball moments start to look like mini-battles inside the bigger one.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” to watch is Toulouse’s opening pattern: do they try to force central progression early, or do they stretch the pitch with Sidibé and their wide options to avoid feeding Lens’s counter-press traps? With Lens strong at stealing the ball, the first couple of risky passes into midfield could set the tone for whether Toulouse play with freedom or with caution.
The second is the Udol factor. Five assists from the left side is serious output, and if Toulouse’s defensive weakness includes defending against attacks down the wings, Lens will look at that matchup as an invitation. The question becomes whether Toulouse can keep their wing-backs from being pinned too deep — because once you’re defending with your wing-backs on the edge of your own box, your own transition threat disappears.
Third: the aerial battles in both boxes. Cresswell’s 4.4 aerials won per game is a monster figure, but Lens are a set-piece-strong side and they cross often. If Toulouse repel the first wave, they’ll want to turn that clearance into a break, because Lens are also labelled weak at defending long shots and very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas — the exact kind of detail that can swing a match without requiring a 20-pass move.
What could go wrong with this read? It could become a game of tiny margins. A single set-piece delivery, a single transition where one defender slips, or one early booking that changes how aggressively a midfielder can press can tilt everything. And because both sides take plenty of shots, the match can also swing on finishing variance: you can do a lot right, and still be chasing the game because one half-chance flew in.
Best Bet for Toulouse vs Lens
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Lens to win
Lens arrive in the south of France carrying the immense momentum of a six-match winning streak in Ligue 1. This remarkable run has seen them climb to 37 points from 16 matches, positioning them one point ahead of Paris Saint-Germain at the top of the table. Their consistency has been the hallmark of their campaign, having secured 12 victories already this season. This record isn’t just a flash in the pan; it is the strongest start in the club’s history at this stage of a top-flight season.
The visitors’ success is built on a potent combination of clinical attacking and defensive stability. They have found the net 28 times while conceding only 13, showcasing a balanced approach that makes them difficult to break down and lethal on the break. Their away form has also been impressive, with five wins from eight trips, including recent victories at Nantes, Angers, and Monaco. This ability to perform under pressure away from home is a vital characteristic of title contenders.
Toulouse, while currently eighth with 23 points, have shown they can be competitive, particularly following their recent 3-0 victory over Paris FC. However, their home record has been somewhat inconsistent, as evidenced by a loss to Angers at the Stadium de Toulouse in late November. Furthermore, historical trends favor the visitors in this specific fixture; Lens have emerged victorious in three of their last four visits to this venue.
The individual quality within the Lens squad often proves the difference in tight encounters. With players like Odsonne Édouard and Wesley Saïd combining for 13 league goals, they possess multiple avenues to goal. When coupled with the defensive leadership of Malang Sarr and the creative output of Matthieu Udol—who has already provided five assists from the left—the league leaders appear well-equipped to navigate the challenges posed by Toulouse and secure another vital three points.
What could go wrong?
Despite their status as favorites, Lens face a Toulouse side that is notoriously “very strong” at coming back from losing positions and creates scoring chances frequently. If Toulouse can capitalize on Lens’s tendency to occasionally foul in dangerous areas or exploit their “weakness” in defending long shots, the match could shift. Additionally, Toulouse are statistically superior in aerial duels, winning an average of 4.4 per game through Charlie Cresswell, which could turn set-pieces into a significant vulnerability for the visitors.
Correct score lean: 1-2
The most likely outcome points toward a narrow victory for the visitors, reflecting their superior form and clinical edge. While Lens are the favorites, they have shown a tendency to concede on their travels, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five away league matches. Given that three of their recent away wins have ended with a 2-1 scoreline, a repeat of this result seems a logical projection for a contest between two sides capable of creating high shot volumes.
Rationale for the correct score selection
A 1-2 victory for Lens aligns with the statistical profiles of both teams. Lens average 1.5 goals per game on the road and have scored at least twice in five of their last six matches. Conversely, Toulouse are productive enough at home to find the net, averaging 1.6 goals per game overall and frequently creating high-quality chances. However, the visitors’ current seven-match winning streak in all competitions suggests they have the mental fortitude and tactical discipline to edge out a competitive opponent. The historical context of this fixture also supports a close game, with the narrow margin reflecting the competitive nature often seen at the Stadium de Toulouse.
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