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Can Paris FC turn this derby into a counter-attacking scrap at Parc des Princes? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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PSG are second in the table and haven't lost a home league game in their last eight outings. They average 2.43 goals per home match and are elite at creating chances through individual skill and through balls. However, they are statistically weak at preventing opponents from creating chances. Paris FC have scored in six of their last seven away games and possess a strong counter-attacking profile. Given that the visitors have scored in both of their recent head-to-head meetings, PSG should win a match where both sides find the back of the net.
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This scoreline aligns with PSG's high scoring average at home and Paris FC's tendency to concede away from home. PSG’s ability to dominate possession (69.9%) and generate high shot volumes (17.7 per game) should see them breach the defense multiple times, especially given Paris FC's weakness against through balls. Conversely, Paris FC’s counter-attacking strength and PSG's admitted struggle to stop chances from being created suggest the visitors will find a way through at least once, mirroring the 2-1 and 1-1 scorelines seen in recent history.
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PSG vs Paris FC Predictions and Best Bets
PSG vs Paris FC — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
PSG enter the derby as heavy favourites with an 89% implied probability for a home win based on current pricing.
The 2–0 and 3–0 outcomes are among the most likely according to listed market prices.
Implied probabilities suggest a 75% chance of Over 2.5 Goals in this Parisian derby.
- PSG’s league control is extreme: 69.9% average possession in Ligue 1 and 17.7 shots per game, showing sustained pressure that can pin opponents deep for long spells.
- The gap in the table is clear: PSG are second with 36 points from 16 games, while Paris FC are 14th with 16 points from 16 matches.
- PSG’s home league platform has been steady: unbeaten in their last 8 home Ligue 1 games, a run that shapes the atmosphere and raises the bar for Paris FC.
Territorial Dominance: Average Possession
PSG’s control of the ball reflects their tactical approach of pinning opponents deep in their own half.
With 724.83 passes per game and 91% accuracy, PSG sustain pressure for long periods.
Despite having the ball often, they are noted for playing primarily in their own half.
Chance Volume: Shots per Game
A comparison of offensive output showing the frequency with which both sides test the opposition goal.
The hosts generate high volumes through individual skill and through balls.
Focus on transitional moments and wing attacks to create openings.
The first Parisian derby of the season lands with a bit of extra charge on Sunday, as Paris Saint-Germain welcome Paris FC to Parc des Princes in Ligue 1. It’s the sort of fixture that doesn’t need much dressing up — the city on one pitch, the bragging rights on the line — but the table gives it a very clear frame anyway.
PSG come into it second with 36 points from 16 games, while Paris FC sit 14th on 16 points from the same number of matches. That gap doesn’t make the game a procession, but it does shape the likely story: PSG trying to impose their usual control and chance volume, Paris FC trying to stay compact, survive the waves, and land their own moments when the match stretches.
There’s also a schedule quirk hovering over it. The build-up calls it Sunday, and the wider match listing references January 4, 2026 — yet elsewhere the time stamp shown is 05/01/2026 2:45. Whatever the clock says in the margins, the heart of it is simple: this is PSG’s home turf, and Paris FC are walking into a stadium where the hosts have been unbeaten in their last eight home Ligue 1 matches. That alone sets a tone. The visitors don’t just have to play the opponent. They have to play the setting.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
PSG’s possible starting XI is named as: Chevalier; Zaïre-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Barcola, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia. That reads like a 4-3-3, matching their formations summary showing 4-3-3 used 15 times in Ligue 1, with 35 goals scored and 13 conceded in that shape.
It’s a line-up that suggests control through the middle and speed out wide. Vitinha sits at the heart of it with six Ligue 1 assists and a lofty 94% pass accuracy, which hints at a team that can keep the ball moving quickly and still find the killer pass. João Neves brings end product from deeper zones — he has five league goals — while Fabián Ruiz adds another technical body to keep PSG’s midfield line smooth rather than scrappy.
The front three in this possible XI is built to stretch and slice: Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Barcola’s league record includes five goals, and Kvaratskhelia has three goals and three assists. Even without overcomplicating it, that blend suggests PSG can threaten with both finishing and creation from wide and half-space areas, not just one classic route.
Paris FC’s possible starting XI is listed as: Nkambadio; Sangui, Mbow, Otávio, De Smet; Cafaro, Camara, Marchetti, Lopez, Ikoné; with the final forward name missing in that lineup line. The personnel still tells you a lot. Obed Nkambadio in goal, Moustapha Mbow and Otávio in the middle of defence, with Thibault De Smet at left-back, points to a back line that will have to defend big spaces if PSG pin them in.
In midfield and the attacking band, there are several familiar levers: Adama Camara, Vincent Marchetti, Maxime Lopez and Jonathan Ikoné are listed, and the squad numbers underline who tends to carry the attacking load. Ilan Kebbal stands out as Paris FC’s most productive league scorer with six goals and four assists, while Moses Simon has three goals and two assists. Those names matter when you’re thinking about how Paris FC might try to get out: not just clearing lines, but finding their most productive players early enough to make the break count.
Team availability notes are also included. Achraf Hakimi is listed as called up to the national team until 19.01.2026, while there are entries for Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha (hamstring), Lee (dead leg), and R. Bellucci Marin with an unknown injury. The possible PSG XI includes neither Hakimi nor Lee, so the likely shape in this preview stays coherent with what’s presented.
How the Match Could Be Played
This looks, on paper, like a contest of territory.
PSG’s style profile is unapologetic: possession football, short passes, controlling the game in the opposition’s half, and attacking down the right. They’re also tagged as very strong at creating long-shot opportunities and very strong at creating chances through individual skill, with through balls also listed as a strong route. In plain terms: PSG want you penned in, moving side to side, with the occasional sudden knife between the ribs when you overstep.
Paris FC’s style profile is almost the mirror image in terms of where they operate: possession football too, but “playing in their own half” is explicitly stated. That doesn’t mean they never attack; it means their default starting point is deeper, and they try to build from there. The strengths reinforce the idea of survival-and-strike: counter attacks are strong, coming back from losing positions is very strong, and protecting the lead is strong. In other words, Paris FC are comfortable in the grimy parts of matches where you suffer, stay in touch, and grow into it.
The fascinating tactical tension is in the weaknesses. Paris FC are rated very weak at defending against through-ball attacks and very weak at avoiding individual errors, while PSG are strong at creating chances using through balls and very strong at individual-skill chance creation. If PSG can lure Paris FC’s midfield and back line into stepping out at the wrong moment, the space between full-back and centre-back becomes a target — exactly where wide forwards like Barcola and Kvaratskhelia tend to enjoy themselves.
At the other end, Paris FC’s counter-attacking strength meets PSG’s own defensive risk markers. PSG are listed as very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and very weak in aerial duels, while Paris FC are strong at attacking down the wings. If Paris FC can win the ball and shift it quickly wide, they have a plausible route to testing PSG in the moments when structure breaks. Moses Simon and Ilan Kebbal, in particular, look like the sort of players you want receiving early when you’re trying to turn defence into threat.
The midfield battle is likely to be less about crunching tackles and more about angles. PSG’s likely trio of Ruiz, Vitinha and Neves suggests they’ll try to own the central lanes with constant availability. Paris FC’s listed midfield options — Camara, Marchetti and Maxime Lopez among them — have to decide whether to chase those angles (and risk being played through) or hold their shape and accept long spells without the ball. PSG’s profile suggests they’re happy to take long shots too, so if Paris FC sit deep and block central access, PSG have another way to keep pressure and force second balls.
Set pieces could become surprisingly significant because the profiles nudge you there. PSG are strong at attacking set pieces and strong at defending set pieces, but they’re also very weak in aerial duels. Paris FC are weak at defending set pieces and weak in aerial duels. That combination hints that dead-ball moments might be less about towering headers and more about organisation, second contacts, and who reacts quickest when the ball drops awkwardly in the box.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The table positions provide the blunt context: PSG are second with 36 points from 16 games, while Paris FC are 14th with 16 points from 16 games. PSG’s league goal numbers reinforce their ability to tilt the pitch: 35 goals scored in Ligue 1, with 17.7 shots per game, and a huge 69.9% average possession. That possession figure matters because it describes a game-state: PSG typically spend matches in the opponent’s half, recycling attacks until something gives.
Paris FC’s league profile is more moderate: 21 goals from 12.4 shots per game, with 55.3% possession. That suggests they’re not purely a low-possession outfit across the season, even if their style note says they often play in their own half. They can have the ball — but the question here is whether they can have it in the right places at Parc des Princes, or whether it becomes safe possession under pressure.
Some of the “overall” match aggregates included also frame this as a game PSG can keep feeding chances into. Across the listed played games section, PSG have 417 total shots at 18.13 per game, while Paris FC have 221 total shots at 13 per game. PSG’s passing volume is also enormous in that same section: 16,671 total passes, averaging 724.83 per game, with 91% accuracy and 69% possession. When a team completes passes at that rate, it isn’t just about prettiness — it’s about pinning you in and forcing concentration mistakes.
Concentration is relevant because Paris FC are described as very weak at avoiding individual errors, and their disciplinary line is heavier too: 33 yellow cards compared to PSG’s 24, plus 2 red cards each. That doesn’t predict drama on its own, but it does hint at a side that can end up defending in stressful zones for long spells — and that’s where a mistimed challenge or lapse in shape can become a problem.
Individual production tells you where the sharp end lives. PSG have two five-goal league scorers in João Neves and Barcola, while Vitinha’s six assists points to PSG having a reliable creator even from central midfield. Paris FC’s leading man is Kebbal with six goals and four assists, and Maxime Lopez has three assists. If Paris FC are going to make this a proper derby rather than an exercise in damage limitation, those are the players who need to touch the ball in meaningful spaces.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is PSG’s right-sided emphasis meeting Paris FC’s left side. PSG are described as attacking down the right, and the possible XI includes Zaïre-Emery at right-back with Dembélé in the front three. Paris FC’s possible XI has De Smet at left-back. If PSG can repeatedly isolate that lane, forcing two-versus-one decisions, the match could become a steady drip of entries into the box and cut-backs.
The second moment is the through-ball question. Paris FC’s weakness against through-ball attacks is labelled very weak, while PSG’s capacity to create through balls is rated strong. That’s a tactical marriage made for a tense afternoon: one mistimed step from the Paris FC back line and suddenly Barcola or Kvaratskhelia is running into the gap. If Paris FC manage to hold their line and keep their distances tight, PSG may be pushed towards longer shots — which PSG are well set up to take, but which can also keep the underdog hanging around.
The third moment is transitions. Paris FC are strong on counter attacks, and PSG are rated very weak at stopping opponents creating chances. If Paris FC can win it and find Kebbal or Simon quickly, they can turn PSG’s territory into exposure. It’s the classic risk of dominating the ball: lose it once in the wrong spot and you’re instantly defending a sprint.
What could go wrong with this read? Derbies have a habit of shredding tidy narratives. An early goal can flip everything: PSG might have to manage their “protecting the lead” weakness, or Paris FC might be forced into a higher block that doesn’t suit “playing in their own half”. And with both sides tagged as weak in aerial duels, one messy set-piece or awkward second ball can create a goal that doesn’t follow any tactical plan at all.
Best Bet for Paris Saint-Germain vs Paris FC
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Paris Saint-Germain to win and both teams to score
PSG enter this derby as heavy favorites, sitting second in the table with 36 points and an unbeaten home record in their last eight Ligue 1 matches. They possess a high-volume attack that averages over 17 shots per game and has already produced 35 goals this season. With creators like Vitinha, who boasts six league assists, and dynamic forwards like Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé, the hosts are structurally equipped to exploit a Paris FC defense that is rated as very weak at defending through-ball attacks. Given that PSG are listed as strong in creating chances through exactly that method, the home side is well-positioned to find the net multiple times.
However, a clean sheet for the favorites is far from a certainty. While PSG dominate possession, they are described as very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and very weak in aerial duels. Paris FC, despite their 14th-place standing, have shown they can be a threat on the road, having scored in six of their last seven away league matches. The visitors are also noted for their strength in counter-attacks and wing play, which aligns directly with PSG’s defensive vulnerabilities. With Ilan Kebbal contributing six goals and four assists this season, Paris FC have the individual quality to capitalize on the transition moments that often occur when PSG pin opponents back. History also shows that in their last two head-to-head encounters, Paris FC managed to score at least once in each game. Considering PSG’s tendency to allow chances despite their territorial dominance, a home victory accompanied by goals for both sides is the most logical expectation.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this selection is a lack of clinical finishing from the visitors, particularly since they often “play in their own half” and may struggle to sustain pressure. If PSG’s midfield trio of Ruiz, Vitinha, and Neves exerts total control and limits Paris FC to a very low number of transitions, the visitors might fail to find the target. Additionally, if the match becomes a defensive stalemate similar to Paris FC’s recent 0-0 draw at Le Havre, the “both teams to score” element would fail.
Correct Score Lean: Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Paris FC
The 3-1 scoreline reflects the significant gap in league standing while acknowledging the tactical trends of both clubs. PSG have scored 35 goals in 16 matches, and their average of 2.43 goals per home game suggests they are likely to hit the three-goal mark against a side that has conceded 29 times this term. Paris FC’s weakness against individual skill and through balls should allow PSG’s front three to find multiple breakthroughs. However, PSG’s “very weak” rating in stopping chances and aerial duels provides a clear path for a Paris FC consolation, likely via a counter-attack or a cross.
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