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Valencia and Mallorca arrive at Friday night’s La Liga meeting with a familiar edge to the mood: both have found the season a grind, but both also have a very clear opportunity to make it feel lighter. Valencia go into it 17th, level on points with 18th-placed Girona, while Mallorca sit 14th — not comfortable, not panicking, but still close enough to the noise that every home-and-away detail starts to matter. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is based on the overwhelming statistical evidence from Valencia's season, where 69% of their matches have seen more goals scored in the second half. Valencia's scoring rate jumps significantly from 0.19 goals per game in the first half to 0.75 in the second. Mallorca follows a similar pattern, also averaging 0.75 goals in the second period. Given the current "poor" form of both sides and their positions in the lower half of the table, a cautious start followed by a more open second half is the most probable narrative.
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A 1-1 draw is the most supported scoreline based on Mallorca’s 63% BTTS rate and Valencia’s defensive record of 1.56 goals conceded per match. Both teams average exactly 10.81 shots per game, indicating a high degree of parity in chance creation. While Mallorca is more clinical with 4.19 shots on target, Valencia’s home advantage and desperate need for points should see them compete. The odds for a 1-1 draw are explicitly listed at 7.2 in the data, reflecting a likely outcome for two sides that frequently exchange goals but struggle to dominate.
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Valencia vs Mallorca Predictions and Best Bets
Valencia vs Mallorca — bet365 Market Snapshot
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A quick snapshot of the listed 1X2 prices for Valencia, the draw, and Mallorca, with implied percentages shown as 1/decimal.
These are selected listed correct-score prices, shown with implied percentages (1/decimal) for quick comparison.
Listed goal-line prices with implied percentages (1/decimal). These reflect the pricing shown, not a forecast.
First-half goal-line prices shown with implied percentages (1/decimal), as listed for this fixture.
- Mallorca’s main man factor: Vedat Muriqi has 9 league goals this season, nearly double Valencia’s top scorer Hugo Duro on 5, shaping how both defences prioritise the box.
- Same shot volume, different accuracy: Both sides average 10.81 shots per match, but Mallorca put 4.19 on target per game compared to Valencia’s 2.88, a gap that often decides tight matches.
- Valencia’s risk profile: Valencia average 0.94 points per game and concede 1.56 goals per match, with 1.50 xG against per match, hinting at a side regularly defending bigger moments than it creates.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides live around the same overall game tempo this season, with their matches typically settling in the mid-twos for total goals.
A 2.50 match average points to games that can swing on a couple of moments rather than constant end-to-end chaos.
Mallorca’s 2.56 suggests similar match rhythms, where control matters but goals still arrive often enough to keep it tense.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored per League Match
This compares how regularly each side converts their attacking phases into goals across the league season so far.
Under a goal per game puts extra pressure on finishing and second-phase play around the box when chances arrive.
A 1.13 scoring rate suggests Mallorca tend to find a route to goal more often, even if matches remain tight overall.
End Product: Shots on Target per League Match
Shots on target give a quick read on how often attacking moves finish with a test for the goalkeeper.
With 2.88 on target per game, the key is turning decent build-up into clearer, more accurate final actions.
A 4.19 on-target rate suggests Mallorca’s attacks more often end with the keeper involved — a useful edge in fine-margin games.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets in the League
Clean sheets highlight how often a side keeps concentration and structure for the full ninety, even when matches get messy.
Four clean sheets show Valencia can lock games down at times — but maintaining that level under pressure is the weekly challenge.
Three clean sheets suggests Mallorca have had spells of defensive control, but often still have to manage long periods without the ball.
Can Valencia find the cutting edge to halt Mallorca’s forward threat on Friday night?
It’s also a fixture framed by “contrasting results” in the Copa del Rey. That phrase alone doesn’t tell you who’s flying and who’s fuming, but it does hint at two squads coming into the same game with different levels of freshness in the legs and clarity in the head. And with both teams labelled as being in “Poor” form across their league summaries, the early phases feel important here: settle first, then grow. Or wobble early, and spend the rest of the night chasing your own shadow.
The league numbers suggest two sides living in the margins. Valencia have 15 goals scored and 25 conceded across 16 matches; Mallorca have scored 18 and conceded 23 in 16. There’s no great mystery to what that usually produces: tight spells, spells of anxiety, then a couple of moments that decide everything. The question is whose moments turn up — and whose don’t.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Valencia’s possible XI is listed as: Agirrezabala; Foulquier, Tarrega, Copete, Vazquez; Correia, Ugrinic, Pepelu, Almeida; Lopez, Duro. On paper, that reads like a back four with a four-man midfield line and a front pair — a selection that can give you structure quickly, but also puts pressure on the wide players to cover ground and keep the team connected.
Mallorca’s possible XI is: Roman; Maffeo, Valjent, Raillo, Mojica; Aguado, Samu; Joseph, Darder, Virgili; Muriqi. Again, it looks like a back four, with a double pivot in front, three supporting runners/creators behind a single forward. It’s the kind of shape that can become very compact without the ball, then spring forward through the central attacking midfielder or the wide channels if the timing is right.
The headline individual threats are sitting right at the top of each team’s scoring list. Hugo Duro has 5 league goals for Valencia, while Vedat Muriqi has 9 for Mallorca. If these line-ups are close to correct, both sides are naturally geared towards getting a reliable finisher into the “main event” areas — the box, the second balls, the ugly rebounds, the moments where defenders glance over shoulders and everyone suddenly looks a bit shorter than they did five seconds ago.
How the Match Could Be Played
This has the feel of a game where the first ten minutes are less about genius and more about discipline. Valencia’s overall profile — 48% average possession and 10.81 shots per match — points to a side that can have the ball without dominating it, and can shoot without necessarily overwhelming opponents. Mallorca’s 45% average possession suggests they’re comfortable living without long spells of control and choosing their moments instead.
If Valencia do line up with two forwards (Lopez and Duro), the most obvious route is to make Mallorca’s centre-backs defend forward, not backward. That can mean early balls into channels, quick diagonals, and getting the second line (Pepelu, Almeida, and the wide options) close enough to hoover up loose touches. The balance is delicate, though. Push the full-backs too high and you invite direct counters into the spaces they’ve left; keep them too deep and you risk leaving your forwards isolated.
Mallorca’s set-up, with Aguado and Samu sitting behind Joseph, Darder and Virgili, looks built to protect central spaces first. That could force Valencia to try to progress down the sides, where 1v1s and deliveries become more important. It also creates a clear battleground: can Valencia’s wide midfielders win enough territory and enough duels to keep Mallorca pinned back, or will Mallorca’s wide defenders and midfield screen turn those moments into quick exits?
The other key dynamic is the shot profile. Both teams average 10.81 shots per match, which is an unusually neat symmetry. The difference is where those shots land: Valencia average 2.88 shots on target per match, while Mallorca average 4.19. That gap hints at Mallorca creating clearer looks or finishing phases with more accuracy — and it suggests Valencia’s defensive organisation can’t merely “hold”; it has to prevent the high-quality final action.
Game state matters, too. Valencia’s split data shows they score 0.19 goals per game in the first half and 0.75 in the second, with 69% of their games having the second half as the higher-scoring half. Mallorca also score 0.75 in the second half, and their second-half record is notably stronger than their first-half one. You can imagine a match that starts cagey, then opens once the first round of adjustments and substitutions kicks in — and once legs start to burn in the wide areas.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Valencia’s league record (16 played) reads: 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, and 0.94 points per game. That matters because it frames their tolerance for risk. A team averaging under a point a game often wants control, but also needs outcomes — and that tension can show up in decision-making around when to press and when to sit.
In both chance-creation and chance-prevention, Valencia’s expected goals numbers are telling: 1.17 xG for per match and 1.50 xG against per match. In plain terms, that suggests they’re generally giving up better chances than they create. Over time, that tends to punish you unless you finish above your baseline or defend heroically in key moments.
Mallorca’s numbers are similar but slightly harsher defensively: 1.26 xG for per match and 1.61 xG against per match. Yet Mallorca score more often than Valencia — 1.13 goals per match compared to 0.94 — and they hit the target more frequently (4.19 on target per match compared to 2.88). That combination points towards a side that, whatever its broader difficulties, is finding ways to turn possession into properly testable shots.
Then there’s the “both teams score” tendency. Mallorca’s BTTS rate is listed at 63%, while Valencia’s is 50%. It doesn’t guarantee anything on a given night, but it does support the idea that Mallorca matches are regularly open enough for both sides to have spells of threat — especially if Valencia’s concession rate stays close to their season average of 1.56 conceded per match.
Finally, the table context: Valencia are 17th on 15 points (from 16 matches), Mallorca are 14th on 17 points. That two-point gap isn’t a season-definer on its own, but it’s enough to sharpen the edge: win it and you climb, lose it and you invite uncomfortable conversations.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment is simply the finishing duel: Duro (5 league goals) versus Muriqi (9). These are the players most likely to turn a half-chance into a problem. If Valencia’s build-up results in frequent crosses or scrappy box entries, Duro’s presence becomes central; if Mallorca can get deliveries and cut-backs into the right zones, Muriqi is the reference point.
Another is shot quality versus shot volume. Valencia average the same shots per match as Mallorca (10.81), but a much lower on-target number (2.88 versus 4.19). That’s often the difference between “we had moments” and “we actually tested the keeper.” If Valencia can lift the precision — not by shooting more, but by shooting better — the whole mood of the game changes.
The third is the second-half swing. Valencia’s goals trend heavily towards later stages (their scoring jumps from 0.19 in the first half to 0.75 in the second), and Mallorca’s second-half record is also stronger than their first-half one. If it’s level on the hour, it could become a contest of nerve and concentration rather than elaborate patterns — the kind of match where one loose pass, one late runner, or one poorly defended phase flips everything.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single early goal can shred the “patient first half” script, forcing a team to chase and opening spaces that weren’t there five minutes earlier. And even with season-long averages pointing one way, individual nights don’t always behave: a deflection, a goalkeeper in inspired form, or one rash decision can make the numbers feel irrelevant.
Best Bet for Valencia vs Mallorca
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Second Half to be the Highest Scoring Half
Rationale
The statistical profiles of both Valencia and Mallorca suggest a match that will start with extreme caution before opening up significantly in the later stages. Valencia’s scoring distribution is remarkably skewed towards the end of their fixtures. They average only 0.19 goals per game in the first half compared to 0.75 in the second half. This trend is further reinforced by the fact that 69% of Valencia’s games this season have seen the second half emerge as the higher-scoring period. When a side consistently fails to find the net early but manages to increase its output nearly fourfold after the interval, it points toward a tactical approach that prioritizes defensive stability until the opposition tires or tactical adjustments are made.
Mallorca mirror this trend in their own offensive output, also averaging 0.75 goals per game in the second half. Their overall performance record is notably stronger after the break, suggesting that both teams possess a “late-growth” rhythm. This is logical given the high stakes of the fixture; with Valencia sitting 17th and Mallorca 14th, both managers are likely to emphasize a “settle first” mentality to avoid a catastrophic early wobble. The initial phases are expected to be tight and cagey, as both squads are currently in poor league form and will be wary of conceding a goal that could shred their confidence.
Tactically, the expected setups also favor a late surge in action. Mallorca’s structure, featuring a double pivot of Aguado and Samu, is designed to protect central spaces and force Valencia into the wide channels. This often leads to a war of attrition in the first hour. As fatigue sets in for the wide players and substitutions are introduced—particularly with threats like Hugo Duro and Vedat Muriqi remaining active for the full duration—the likelihood of defensive lapses increases. Given the historical goal distributions and the current league situation requiring a disciplined start, the most justified outcome is a higher concentration of goals in the second period.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a “breakout” individual moment in the opening minutes. While the averages suggest a quiet start, an early error in Valencia’s defensive organization (which concedes 1.50 xG per match) or a clinical strike from Muriqi could force an immediate change in game state. If a goal is scored in the first 15 minutes, the trailing team is forced to abandon their disciplined shape earlier than planned, which could lead to an anomalous first-half goal fest that defies the season-long trends.
Correct score rationale
The 1-1 draw is the most logical scoreline as it aligns perfectly with the high “Both Teams to Score” (BTTS) rates and the defensive vulnerabilities of both sides. Mallorca carries a 63% BTTS rate, and Valencia’s expected goals (xG) against sits at 1.50 per match, indicating that both teams consistently struggle to keep clean sheets. Furthermore, their shot volume is identical at 10.81 per match, suggesting a balanced level of threat. With both teams averaging roughly one goal per game and desperately needing to avoid a loss, a competitive but ultimately level scoreline is the most consistent result.
Correct score lean
1-1
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