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El Sadar gets another tense-looking La Liga afternoon on Saturday, with Osasuna and Deportivo Alavés both arriving off the back of league defeats and both needing a response. The table makes it feel properly live: Osasuna sit 16th, level on points with 18th-placed Girona, while Alavés are 12th with 18 points from their opening 16 matches. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Borussia M’gladbach are positioned higher in the table and possess a significantly better defensive record at home compared to Augsburg’s away struggles. Haris Tabakovic is in excellent scoring form with seven goals, and he should find joy against an Augsburg defense that concedes nearly two goals per game on average. While Augsburg have a good recent head-to-head record, their current form on the road—failing to win eight of their last nine away matches—suggests Gladbach have the upper hand. The home side's superior passing and ability to control the middle third should eventually tell.
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Both teams carry defensive scars, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely. Gladbach’s weakness against through balls and set pieces offers Augsburg a route to goal, but the hosts' attacking efficiency, led by Tabakovic, should see them outpace the visitors. Augsburg have conceded 28 goals this term and lack clinical finishing, which often leaves them on the wrong end of narrow scorelines. A 2-1 result reflects the competitive nature of the bottom-half scrap while acknowledging Gladbach’s slight statistical edge in terms of goal creation and home-field advantage.
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Osasuna vs Alaves Predictions and Best Bets
Osasuna vs Alaves — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through prices with “Implied (from listed odds)” percentages shown for quick context.
The percentages below are calculated directly from the listed fractional prices, giving a quick snapshot of how the 1X2 is being framed.
A handful of common scorelines, ordered by higher implied percentages from the listed prices.
The bars reflect implied percentages from the listed prices for totals and both-teams-to-score.
A quick look at listed anytime prices for a few named attackers, shown with implied percentages from those odds.
- Table tension headline: Osasuna are 16th with 15 points after 16 matches, while Deportivo Alavés are 13th with 18 points from the same 16 games.
- Same output, different balance headline: both sides have scored 14 goals in 16 matches (0.88 per match), but Osasuna have conceded 20 (1.25) compared to Alavés’ 17 (1.06).
- Chance profile headline: Osasuna’s xG for is 1.17 per match with xG against at 1.58, while Alavés post 1.25 xG for and 1.27 xG against — suggesting Alavés games are closer to even.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per La Liga Game
Both sides have been involved in relatively tight scorelines, and the match-goals averages hint at how open (or closed) this one might feel.
With 14 scored and 20 conceded across 16 games, Osasuna matches have tended to include a touch more scoreboard movement.
Alavés have scored 14 and conceded 17 in 16, a profile that often keeps games within one key moment either way.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets So Far
Clean sheets show how often a side can shut the door completely — especially relevant in a fixture where margins can be thin.
A 25% clean-sheet rate suggests Osasuna often concede at least once, so their defensive organisation has to stand up for long spells.
Alavés sit at 19% for clean sheets, pointing to a side that can be stubborn, but still gives opponents openings over 90 minutes.
Chance Volume: Shots per Match
Shot volume isn’t everything, but it’s a quick way to gauge which side tends to spend more time asking questions in the final third.
Osasuna average 10.13 shots per match, so their best spells often depend on turning transitions into quick attempts before the box gets crowded.
Alavés are on 11 shots per match, edging the volume, which fits a side capable of building pressure even when games stay low-scoring.
Can Osasuna’s defensive-heavy set-up shut down Alavés at El Sadar?
That gap matters, but it’s not a canyon. Osasuna’s 15 points from 16 games tells its own story of a side living close to the edge, while Alavés’ return has been steadier without being spectacular. Neither has been ripping up the division for goals either — both are on 14 scored — which sets up a match where territory, decision-making and small moments could end up louder than any grand plan.
There’s also something very La Liga about this one: two teams who can make matches awkward, who don’t give you rhythm for free, and who tend to ask opponents to earn every clean touch in the final third. If it becomes scrappy, nobody in Pamplona will be shocked. If it becomes tactical chess, it’ll suit the setting just as well.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Osasuna’s possible XI is listed as: Herrera; Arguibide, Osambela, Catena, Herrando, Cruz; Moncayola, Torro, Oroz; Budimir, Munoz.
Even without over-complicating it, the balance of that selection points towards a defence-first approach: six named as defenders in the back line, then three in midfield, then two forwards. Whether that becomes a back line with a spare man, or a flatter unit that drops and squeezes space, the implication is clear: Osasuna are set up to protect their goal first and build from there. Up top, Ante Budimir and Munoz give them two reference points to play into, while the midfield trio of Moncayola, Torro and Oroz suggests a blend of legs, duels and someone who can link play.
Alavés’ possible XI is: Sivera; Otto, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Parada; Blanco; Vicente, Ibanez, Suarez, Rebbach; Boye.
That reads like a more standard structure, with a back four, a single screen in front of it and then a four behind a central striker. Antonio Blanco looks like the key hinge: the player who can steady possession, cover transitions and allow the attacking midfielders to play higher. With Carlos Vicente Robles, Pablo Ibáñez, Denis Suárez and Abderrahman Rebbach listed behind Lucas Boyé, there’s a clear intention to supply one forward rather than split the responsibility across two.
How the Match Could Be Played
The interesting contrast here is what each selection hints at in terms of risk. Osasuna’s listed shape feels built to deny space between the lines. If they sit a little deeper with that defensive-heavy look, the game can funnel into wide areas, with Alavés asked to find quality from the flanks or work their way into crossing zones. That’s where Osasuna’s plan can make sense: you can defend crosses with numbers, you can reset quickly after second balls, and you can keep the central corridor crowded so that players like Denis Suárez don’t get to turn and pick passes at will.
The trade-off, of course, is what happens when Osasuna have the ball. Their season possession average is 45%, which points towards spells without it. That can be fine — even healthy — if you’re sharp in the first pass after winning it. With Budimir and Munoz together, Osasuna look like they want a direct outlet, someone to hold it and someone to run beyond, or at least someone to be close enough for knockdowns and second balls. The midfield trio becomes crucial: if Moncayola, Torro and Oroz can arrive quickly around the forwards, Osasuna can turn clearances into attacks rather than simply inviting the next wave.
For Alavés, the midfield and half-spaces look like the key territory. Their average possession is 49%, slightly higher than Osasuna’s, and their shots per match sit at 11. That points to a team that can get into shooting positions, even if the end product hasn’t been prolific. With Blanco sitting, the next line — Vicente Robles, Ibáñez, Suárez, Rebbach — can rotate around Boyé: one dropping in, one running beyond, one pulling wide to create a lane for an overlap.
If Osasuna do defend with numbers, the “where” matters as much as the “how”. Letting Alavés have the ball in harmless areas is one thing. Letting them settle around the box and recycle attacks is another. That’s where the first trigger to press might appear: a loose touch in midfield, a back pass into traffic, or a sideways pass that invites Budimir and Munoz to angle the press and force play wide. You can imagine Osasuna wanting turnovers in positions where a quick ball into Budimir becomes an immediate problem for Alavés’ centre-backs.
At the other end, Alavés will be thinking about transitional control. Osasuna’s away form numbers are rough, but at home their record is much stronger, and they score more there. If Alavés lose the ball while building, Blanco’s positioning and the distances between their midfielders become a big swing factor. Leave gaps and Osasuna can get their forwards facing goal. Keep the rest defence tight and you force Osasuna into longer, lower-percentage attacks.
There are also some neat individual battles implied by the team sheets. Budimir is Osasuna’s top scorer with 4 league goals, so Alavés’ centre-backs — including Jon Pacheco in the listed XI — will want to stop him receiving cleanly. At the other end, Boyé has 3 league goals for Alavés, which makes him the obvious reference point against a defence that may already be prioritising compactness. And then you’ve got the creators: Rubén García leads Osasuna’s assists with 4, while Carles Aleñà leads Alavés’ assists with 3. If either of those sides can get their main supplier receiving in a pocket of space, the match can tilt quickly.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The table position and points underline why this feels like a “don’t make it worse” fixture as much as a “go and win it” one. Osasuna have 15 points from 16 matches, while Alavés have 18 from 16. That difference suggests Alavés have found a few more ways to turn games into points, but not enough to feel comfortable.
Goal output is also revealing. Both teams have scored 14 in 16 matches, which works out at 0.88 goals per match for each. That matters because it frames the likely rhythm: if neither side scores freely, the first goal becomes more valuable, and patience becomes a skill rather than a vibe.
Defensively, Alavés have conceded 17 (1.06 per match) and Osasuna 20 (1.25 per match). That gap isn’t massive, but it hints at Alavés being a touch better at keeping matches under control. Clean sheets add another layer: Osasuna have 4 in 16 (25%), Alavés have 3 in 16 (19%). In other words, neither side has been living on shutouts; both are conceding often enough that one well-timed spell of pressure can matter.
The underlying chance metrics also fit the idea of a match decided by efficiency. Osasuna’s xG for per match is 1.17 and xG against is 1.58; Alavés’ xG for is 1.25 and xG against is 1.27. Put simply, Osasuna’s matches have tended to feature opponents generating more, while Alavés are closer to balance. That doesn’t write the script on its own, but it does explain why Osasuna might lean into a more protective set-up.
Even the discipline profile supports the expectation of a physical, stop-start contest. Osasuna commit 12.69 fouls per match, while Alavés are at 16.06. If Alavés turn it into a duel-heavy game, Osasuna may be forced to play more set-piece style phases and fewer flowing moves — and that can suit an away side happy to manage momentum.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first ten minutes. Not because it decides the result, but because it reveals intent. If Osasuna sit in and let Alavés have early possession, the game becomes about Alavés’ patience and Osasuna’s timing to jump on a loose pass. If Osasuna start on the front foot, it could be a sign they want to pin Alavés back early and make El Sadar feel like a constraint, not a backdrop.
Budimir’s duels. With 4 league goals, he’s the clearest threat in Osasuna’s numbers, and how Alavés handle him shapes everything: win first contacts and the away side can build; lose them and Osasuna can live in second balls, scrambles, and those miserable little defending sequences that never end.
The “Blanco zone”. If Blanco can receive and play forward, Alavés can get Denis Suárez and the wide players into the match higher up the pitch. If Osasuna’s midfield three can crowd that area and force sideways passes, Alavés may end up crossing from deeper zones rather than slipping passes through the middle.
Shot quality versus shot volume. Osasuna take 10.13 shots per match with a 9% conversion rate, while Alavés take 11 shots per match with an 8% conversion rate. That’s close enough to suggest the difference might come down to who lands the cleaner chances rather than who shoots more.
What could go wrong with this read? A lot, honestly — and that’s the point. Two sides with similar scoring rates can turn a match on a single deflection, a penalty incident, or one mistake playing out. If either team scores early, the entire tactical picture can flip: the team leading can protect space, the team chasing can take risks, and suddenly the match becomes less about structure and more about nerve.
Best Bet for Osasuna vs Deportivo Alavés
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Osasuna to win
The case for an Osasuna victory is primarily built on the stark contrast between their performance at El Sadar and Alavés’ struggles away from home. While Osasuna find themselves in 16th place, their home form tells a much more encouraging story than their league position suggests. They have secured four victories from seven matches at El Sadar this season, earning 13 of their 15 total points in front of their own supporters. This represents a 57% win rate on home soil, a figure that far exceeds their overall season average and provides a stable foundation for them to overcome a direct rival in the table.
Conversely, Deportivo Alavés have been remarkably poor on their travels. The visitors have managed just one win from seven road trips in La Liga this season, picking up a mere four points from a possible 21. Their attacking output away from Mendizorroza is particularly concerning, as they have failed to score in three of their last four away league matches. This lack of goal threat is reflected in their average of just 0.43 goals per game on the road. When facing an Osasuna side that has managed to score in seven consecutive home matches, Alavés’ inability to find the net away from home creates a significant tactical disadvantage.
Furthermore, historical data heavily favors the hosts. Alavés are currently on a run of 11 matches without a win against Osasuna in all competitions, a streak that includes eight defeats. Osasuna’s defensive setup, which features six listed defenders in the projected XI, is designed to minimize risk and protect the goal first. Given that both teams average only 0.88 goals per match, Osasuna’s superior home efficiency and historical dominance in this fixture make them the most logical choice to secure all three points in a tight, low-scoring encounter.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection lies in the low-scoring nature of both sides. With both teams averaging less than a goal per game, a single mistake or a moment of individual brilliance—such as a strike from Alavés’ Carlos Vicente, who has eight goals in all competitions—could result in a 1-0 away win or a stalemate. If Osasuna’s defensive-heavy lineup fails to provide enough service to Ante Budimir, the match could easily drift into a scoreless draw, especially if Alavés successfully implement their pragmatic, counter-attacking strategy.
Correct score lean
Osasuna 1-0
The 1-0 scoreline is the most consistent outcome based on the statistical profiles of both clubs. Both Osasuna and Alavés have struggled significantly for goals this season, each averaging just 0.88 goals per match through 16 rounds. Alavés have been particularly toothless on the road, losing 1-0 in three of their last four away trips. Osasuna’s projected 5-4-1 formation underscores a commitment to defensive stability over expansive play. In a match where the first goal is likely to be the only goal, Osasuna’s strong home record suggests they are the side most likely to find it.
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