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Levante vs Villarreal predictions for Sunday’s La Liga derby clash. Levante are hosting Villarreal on Sunday with the kind of league position that makes every pass feel heavier. The Frogs are rooted to the bottom on nine points from 15 La Liga matches, a return built from two wins, three draws and 10 defeats. Read on for our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.
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Levante are bottom on nine points and arrive off five straight league defeats, with four consecutive home league losses. Their defensive record is a repeated weakness: they have failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 of their last 20 league games and have gone 10 home matches without a shutout. Villarreal are in the opposite groove, winning six straight La Liga games and scoring two or more goals in 11 of 15 league matches. This selection covers both a likely Villarreal victory and the strong probability of at least two goals in the match.
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A 0–2 away win fits the most consistent indicators. Villarreal have the league’s best defensive record, conceding only 13 times in 15 matches, which supports the idea they can manage long spells without allowing Levante many high-quality chances. At the same time, Villarreal have scored at least twice in 11 of 15 league fixtures, so two goals is not a stretch outcome—it is part of their normal scoring range. Levante’s home losing streak and long run without clean sheets increase the probability that Villarreal can pull away once ahead.
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Levante vs Villarreal Predictions and Best Bets
Levante vs Villarreal — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
With Villarreal sitting third on 35 points and Levante bottom on nine, the 1X2 picture leans firmly towards the visitors, with the draw the main spoiler.
Villarreal’s league defence (13 conceded in 15) points towards controlled away wins, while Levante’s long clean-sheet drought keeps multi-goal outcomes in play.
Villarreal have landed 2+ goals in 11 of 15 league matches, while Levante’s defensive record points towards the visitors generating sustained scoring pressure.
Villarreal’s forward line is expected to carry the shot volume again, while Levante’s clearest threat comes through the Romero–Eyong pairing if chances fall their way.
- Villarreal’s control is not a myth: they have conceded only 13 goals in 15 La Liga matches, the league’s best defensive record, which shapes how calmly they can protect a lead.
- Levante’s problems are stubborn, not random: they have lost five straight league games and four consecutive league matches at home, a run that turns every early setback into panic.
- Goals tend to follow Villarreal around: they have scored two or more in 11 of their 15 league games, and they have converted 10 of the 12 matches where they scored first into wins.
League Context: Points on the Board
A quick snapshot of where both sides are living in the table: Villarreal are deep in the title conversation, while Levante are chasing oxygen at the bottom.
Two wins from 15 tells its own story, and the pressure ramps up when the opponent arriving are one of the league’s most consistent winners.
Third place with a game in hand on the top two keeps Villarreal in a serious race, and it raises the intensity even in “routine” away trips.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded in La Liga
Conceding numbers help explain how a match might feel: Villarreal tend to control damage, while Levante’s long run without clean sheets inflates risk.
Failing to keep a clean sheet in 18 of the last 20 league matches is a huge red flag, especially against a side built to create repeatable pressure.
Only 13 conceded across 15 matches is the league’s top defensive record, and it supports the idea of Villarreal dictating tempo once they lead.
Momentum & Scoring Trend
These two numbers combine “what Villarreal usually do” with “what Levante have struggled to stop”, without needing to guess the match script too early.
When a side reach two goals in 11 of 15, it usually signals repeatable chance creation rather than a short-lived finishing hot streak.
Five consecutive league losses can turn one bad ten-minute spell into a full-match problem, particularly if the visitors score first and slow everything down.
Levante vs Villarreal: will the bottom side finally bite back, or are the title-chasers ready to suffocate another Sunday?
Villarreal, meanwhile, are living at the other end of the emotional spectrum: third place, 35 points from 15 games, and a title conversation that no-one can laugh off anymore (even if a few rivals will try, loudly, on purpose, and with a straight face). This fixture is taking place at a moment where both sides have distractions tugging at them. Levante have had a managerial reset, with Julián Calero dismissed late November and Álvaro del Moral stepping in on an interim basis.
It has not been instant magic, but there has been at least one tangible lift: a 1–0 Copa del Rey win over Ciudad Cieza earlier this month. Villarreal, on the other hand, are trying to reconcile two versions of themselves. Domestically they are flying, but in Europe they have just lost 3–2 at home to Copenhagen and sit 35th in the Champions League league-stage table with one point from six matches. That contrast is odd, and yes, it’s fair to call it a mystery.
Why this match-up matters beyond the table
League football is mostly about repeatable processes: how well teams defend space, how efficiently they create chances, how they react when a game tilts. Villarreal’s league profile screams control. They have conceded only 13 goals in 15 La Liga games, the best defensive record in the division, and it’s not an accident—it is what happens when a side consistently limits damage across weeks rather than relying on heroic goalkeeping or one-off luck.
Levante’s recent pattern is the opposite: a fifth straight league loss arrived last time out in a 2–0 defeat to Osasuna, and their home form has been particularly brutal, with four consecutive home defeats in the league. When a newly-promoted side hit this kind of spiral, the mood can go from “romantic underdog story” to “please, someone turn off the highlights” very quickly. That’s controversial to say out loud because we all love a plucky promotion narrative, but football does not hand out points for vibes.
Team news that shapes the likely rhythm
Levante are missing Pablo Martínez, Adrián Dela, Matías Moreno and Carlos Espí, while Unai Elgezabal (knee) and Adrián de la Fuente (muscle) need checks. Villarreal can welcome back Pape Gueye after suspension, and Juan Foyth returns after a European suspension kept him out against Copenhagen. There are still concerns, though: Pau Cabanes, Logan Costa and Willy Kambwala are sidelined, while Gerard Moreno, Dani Parejo, Thomas Partey and Santiago Mourino are listed as doubts.
From the projected line-ups, Levante look set to lean on Giorgi Mamardashvili… sorry—no, they are expected to start Ryan in goal, with Toljan, Matturro, Cabello and Sánchez behind a midfield that includes Álvarez, Arriaga, Vencedor and Brugué, plus Iván Romero and Etta Eyong as the front pairing. Villarreal’s likely XI features Junior; Navarro, Foyth, Veiga, Cardona; Buchanan, Gueye, Comesaña, Moleiro; Ayoze Pérez and Mikautadze. Those names matter because they hint at the key dynamic: Villarreal should have the structure to control phases, while Levante’s clearest hope is that Romero and Eyong can turn limited service into real danger.
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The tactical story hiding inside the numbers
Levante’s season record (two wins in 15) is not just “bad luck”; it reflects a side that have not been able to stabilise matches. A useful way to translate that into betting logic is to look at defensive reliability. The data here is blunt: Levante have failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 of their last 20 La Liga games, and it has been 10 home matches since they last shut an opponent out. That is not a minor weakness; that is a structural leak.
Villarreal are the kind of opponent who punish that sort of recurring flaw, particularly because they are not scraping wins with single moments and prayers. Their league run is extraordinary: six straight La Liga victories, beating Valencia, Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Mallorca, Real Sociedad and Getafe. More importantly for forecasting match state, they have scored at least two goals in 11 of their 15 league fixtures this season. When a team hit that mark nearly three-quarters of the time, it usually signals repeatable chance creation rather than random finishing spikes.
There is also a game-state stat that matters for how Sunday could feel after the first goal: Villarreal have won 10 of the 12 matches in which they have scored first (83%). That suggests that once they get in front, their control becomes suffocating—slowly squeezing the life out of opponents, the way a well-drilled side should. If you’re a Levante supporter, that is the part where you start bargaining with the football gods: “Just let us score first for once and we’ll never complain again.” (You will complain again. Football fans always do. It’s part of the deal.)
Best bet approach at BettingTips4You
At BettingTips4You, we do things differently on purpose: we select one clear prediction for a match rather than flooding the page with ten “maybe this, maybe that” options. We believe quality beats quantity, and one standout selection is easier for readers to follow without second-guessing themselves. It also forces accountability on us—because if we offer a single best bet, our results are easier to track and evaluate over time.
Best Bet for This Match
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Villarreal to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals
Why this is the strongest angle for Sunday
This selection is built around how these teams are actually behaving, not how we wish they behaved. Levante are bottom with nine points because their matches keep slipping away from them, and the clean-sheet drought is the clearest “why”. If a team almost never keeps opponents out—18 of the last 20 league games seeing them concede—then a bet that asks the opponent to score at least once becomes much easier to justify. But we are going further than that, because Villarreal are not simply “likely to score”; they are repeatedly scoring in volume.
Villarreal have hit two or more goals in 11 of 15 league matches. That statistic does a lot of heavy lifting because it supports the idea that a 2–0, 2–1, or even 3–0 type away win is within the normal range of outcomes for them, rather than requiring a perfect storm. Combine it with Levante’s recent collapse—five straight league defeats, four straight home league losses—and you have a scenario where Villarreal should spend long stretches in the “comfortable” zone: circulating possession, pinning Levante back, and waiting for defensive errors that come from fatigue and frustration.
The other important layer is psychology and scheduling. Villarreal are coming off a painful 3–2 home defeat to Copenhagen in Europe, and teams often respond to that kind of embarrassment in one of two ways: they sulk, or they bounce back with aggression in domestic play. Given their current La Liga momentum, it is reasonable to expect the latter. Meanwhile, Levante’s recent Copa del Rey win under Álvaro del Moral might improve belief, but it doesn’t erase the structural issues that have made them the league’s lowest side across 15 games.
In personnel terms, Levante’s best attacking argument is the Romero–Eyong partnership. Romero has four goals in all competitions and Eyong has five, which means Levante do have forwards capable of finishing if the ball arrives in useful areas. That’s exactly why we prefer Villarreal win & over 1.5 goals rather than demanding a Villarreal clean sheet: it respects Levante’s potential without ignoring their defensive reality. It’s a bet that fits multiple plausible match scripts—Villarreal winning 2–0 if Levante’s attacks fizzle, or Villarreal winning 2–1 if Romero or Eyong take a chance.
BettingTips4You.com expert quote: “When Levante are conceding in almost every league outing and Villarreal are regularly reaching two goals, the most professional play is to align with the repeatable patterns. We are not chasing a miracle story; we are backing the shape of the season.”
Likely correct score call
The scoreline that best matches the data is Levante 0–2 Villarreal. Villarreal’s defensive record (13 conceded in 15) points to strong game control, while their frequent two-goal outputs make 0–2 a very natural landing spot if they score first and manage the tempo.
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