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Can Levante’s league-high goals-against record withstand Villarreal’s central attacking threat at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Villarreal’s superior central attacking and chance creation (13.76 shots per game) should overwhelm a Levante side that has conceded the most goals in La Liga. Given Levante’s poor home form and Villarreal’s clinical finishing, an away win for the third-placed side is highly probable.
Read Rationale ▾
Levante recently suffered a 2-0 derby defeat and struggle to contain through-balls. Villarreal’s defensive stability (9 clean sheets) combined with Levante’s league-high 40 goals conceded makes a 2-0 scoreline a logical outcome for the visitors, reflecting the current gulf in quality and momentum.
Readers’ Tip
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Levante are in the thick of the scrap, sitting 19th and staring at a seven-point gap to safety, while Villarreal arrive in third level on points with Atlético Madrid.
Levante vs Villarreal — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Villarreal’s high win probability reflects the gulf in class between the top-four contenders and Levante’s league-worst goals-against record.
With Levante conceding 40 times this season, pricing leans towards a higher-scoring encounter as Villarreal look to exploit defensive vulnerabilities.
Levante’s struggle to find the net at home combined with their leaky backline makes low-margin Villarreal victories a prominent market focus.
Ayoze Perez and Gerard Moreno lead the attacking threat for the visitors, given Villarreal’s high volume of shots per league match.
Match Preview
This one has a bite to it. Levante are in the thick of the scrap, sitting 19th on 18 points and staring at a seven-point gap to 17th. Villarreal arrive at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in third, level on points with Atlético Madrid, and still carrying the swagger of a side built to control matches and punish weaknesses.
There’s a dash of unfinished business too: this fixture was meant to land in mid-December, but heavy rainfall in the Valencia region forced a postponement. Now it drops into a tense moment for Levante, fresh from a 2-0 derby defeat to Valencia, facing a Villarreal team that create, shoot, and strike through the middle with real purpose.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Game
Villarreal’s higher shot frequency suggests they will dominate the final third against a Levante side often pinned back.
Defensive Reliability: Total Clean Sheets
Villarreal have recorded nearly double the clean sheets of Levante, highlighting the difference in defensive structure.
Team News & Probable Lineups
No specific injuries or suspensions are listed for either side.
Levante Probable XI (4-4-2)
Ryan; Toljan, De la Fuente, Moreno, Sanchez; Vencedor, Raghouber; Tunde, Alvarez, Romero; Eyong
Villarreal Probable XI
Junior; Mouriño, Marín, Veiga, Cardona; Buchanan, Gueye, Comesaña, Moleiro; Mikautadze, Pérez
Tactical Outlook
Levante’s shape screams “protect the middle, then go long” — but the problem is they’ve been soft defending transitions and set pieces. Villarreal’s selection leans into ball security and incision, with creators and finishers who can turn one loose moment into a chance in the net.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League) | Levante | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 4th |
| Points | 18 | 45 |
| Goals scored | 26 (23 apps) | 44 (23 apps) CLINICAL |
| Goals conceded | 40 (23 apps) | 26 (23 apps) |
| Shots per game | 10.6–10.81 | 12.0–13.76 |
| Possession | 41.3%–43% | 44.2%–46% |
| Pass accuracy | 78.3%–79% | 83.0%–84% |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 9 |
| Corners (total) | 92 | 155 |
Levante’s numbers paint a team forced into survival football: lower possession, lower pass accuracy, and the league’s worst goals-against record. Villarreal look the opposite — more goals, more control, more corners, and a higher clean-sheet count. That doesn’t guarantee flow, but it does hint at territory: Villarreal should have the ball more often, and Levante will need to defend their box like their season depends on it.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Levante’s problem: defending what they invite
Levante sit deep and play in their own half, leaning on long passing and trying to thread through balls when they do escape. They also attempt plenty of shots, but the bigger story is what happens when they lose it. They struggle to keep possession, and they’re very weak defending set pieces and wide attacks — exactly the sort of pressure that snowballs when you spend long spells without the ball.
That makes their wide protection huge. If Toljan and Sanchez get pinned back, Levante’s wide men can’t jump out to press, and the whole block gets squashed towards Ryan’s area. With 40 conceded already, that’s a dangerous way to live.
Villarreal’s threat: central incision with runners off it
Villarreal’s style points to a team happy to play in their own half at times, then spring forward with through balls, central attacks, and right-sided emphasis. Their strengths are loud: counter-attacks, creating chances, and finishing. Add in that they’re strong from set pieces, and Levante’s biggest defensive weakness gets poked repeatedly. Watch the midfield triangle: Gueye and Comesaña can keep Villarreal balanced, while Moleiro drives the output — he’s Villarreal’s leading league scorer with 9, and he also has 4 assists.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Levante are very weak defending dead balls, while Villarreal are strong taking them and defending them. Corners could feel like mini-penalties.
- First contact in the box: Levante rely on direct play and early shooting; Villarreal are weak in aerial duels, so the first header and second ball fights matter.
- Discipline in dangerous zones: Villarreal can struggle to avoid fouls in risky areas, and both sides rack up fouls (Levante 318, Villarreal 428). One clumsy challenge can flip momentum.
Strengths & Weaknesses Snapshot
- Defence Under Fire: Levante have conceded 40 goals in 23 La Liga matches, the division’s worst record.
- Home Comforts Missing: Levante have taken just seven points from 11 home league matches, the weakest home record in La Liga this season.
- Chance Volume: Levante average 10.81 shots per game, while Villarreal fire 13.76.
Market Explainer: Match Result and Correct Score 📊
Match Result (8/11)
This market requires selecting the outcome of the game: a home win, a draw, or an away win. It is the most popular way to support a team’s overall superiority.
Pros: Straightforward and reflects league form. Cons: Offers lower prices for clear favourites.
Correct Score (8/1)
Predicting the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes. This market offers higher returns due to the difficulty of pinpointing precise results.
Pros: High price potential. Cons: Extremely sensitive to late goals or single mistakes.
Villarreal to Win: Tactical Analysis 🎯
Villarreal arrive at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia with clear statistical superiority in almost every performance category. Standing 4th in the league with 45 points, they face a Levante side languishing in 19th with only 18 points. The most significant factor in this matchup is Levante’s defensive fragility; they have conceded 40 goals in 23 matches, which is the worst record in the entire division. This vulnerability is perfectly matched by Villarreal’s attacking efficiency, having scored 44 goals themselves. Villarreal average 13.76 shots per game, significantly higher than Levante’s 10.81, suggesting the visitors will maintain constant pressure on a backline that has only managed five clean sheets all season.
Tactical Indicators:
- Villarreal’s 84% pass accuracy allows them to control territory and tire out Levante’s deep block.
- Levante have taken just seven points from 11 home matches, the weakest home record in La Liga.
- Villarreal’s strength in through-balls and central attacks exploits Levante’s weakness in defending transitions.
Risk Factor: Villarreal have only won one of their last seven away matches across all competitions.
Correct Score: Villarreal 2-0 ⚔️
A 2-0 victory for the visitors aligns with both teams’ recent scoring and defensive patterns. Levante failed to score in their recent 2-0 derby loss to Valencia, a result that mirrored their general struggles at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Villarreal have recorded nine clean sheets this season compared to Levante’s five, and with creators like Moleiro and Gerard Moreno in the side, they possess the incision to penetrate a Levante defence that is noted for being soft against through-balls. Villarreal often target the right-hand side and central areas, which forces Levante’s full-backs deep and creates space for high-quality chances.
Scoreline Probability: Levante’s low home scoring rate and Villarreal’s superior clean sheet record make a 2-0 away win a highly plausible outcome.
Risk Factor: Both teams commit a high volume of fouls, which could disrupt the flow of play and lead to a more fragmented contest.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Moleiro and Moreno specialize in through balls and central attacks to create high-volume shooting opportunities.
Ranked worst in the league for goals conceded (40), struggling specifically with set pieces and transition defense.
Match Q&A ⊕
What is a Match Result bet? ⊕
What is a Match Result bet?
A Match Result bet is a wager on which team will win the game or if it will end in a draw. It is the most standard football bet based on the outcome after 90 minutes.
Why is Villarreal favoured in this match? ⊕
Why is Villarreal favoured in this match?
Villarreal are favoured because they sit 15 places higher in the league and face the division’s worst defence. Levante have conceded 40 goals and have the league’s poorest home record.
How does the Correct Score market work? ⊕
How does the Correct Score market work?
The Correct Score market requires you to predict the exact final score of the match. While difficult to predict, it offers higher potential returns than simple result markets.
What is Levante’s home form like? ⊕
What is Levante’s home form like?
Levante have the weakest home record in La Liga this season. They have taken just seven points from 11 home matches at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
Who are the key players to watch for Villarreal? ⊕
Who are the key players to watch for Villarreal?
Moleiro is the leading scorer with 9 goals and 4 assists, while Gerard Moreno holds the team-best performance rating of 7.25.
What is the significance of the “POSTPONED” status? ⊕
What is the significance of the “POSTPONED” status?
This match was originally scheduled for December but was delayed due to heavy rainfall. It now takes place at a time when Levante are desperate for points to avoid relegation.
What is a through-ball threat? ⊕
What is a through-ball threat?
A through-ball is a pass sent into open space behind the defensive line for a runner. Villarreal specialize in this, while Levante are statistically weak at defending such plays.
What does ‘xG trend’ mean in betting? ⊕
What does ‘xG trend’ mean in betting?
Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of chances created. Villarreal’s rising xG trend suggests they are creating increasingly better opportunities to score.
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