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Can Castro’s relegation-battlers punch back against Sarabia’s possession machine? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Levante have conceded 18 goals in their last 8 home matches but have scored 21 times this season. Elche average over 59% possession and have scored 27 goals. With Levante’s leaky defense and Elche’s attacking dominance, both sides are highly likely to find the net.
Read Rationale ▾
Elche’s superior possession (59.1%) and passing accuracy (86.8%) should overwhelm a Levante side that is very weak at defending wings and set pieces. While Levante’s strikers Eyong and Romero have enough quality to score, Elche’s overall technical edge supports a narrow away victory.
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Levante vs Elche Predictions and Best Bets
Levante vs Elche — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
William Hill pricing shows Levante as slight home favourites, though Elche’s technical dominance keeps the away win and draw in close contention.
Low-margin results dominate the pricing, reflecting the likely impact of Elche’s possession play versus Levante’s direct transition threat.
Implied probabilities from the BTTS market show a high expectation for both sides to find the net, aligning with Levante’s defensive leaks.
Goduine Koyalipou and Karl Etta Eyong are the primary statistical threats for the home side, based on current William Hill scoring prices.
- Home Pain, Real Pressure: Levante have taken just 3 points from 8 home league matches and conceded 18 in that spell — a brutal mix when you’re already 19th.
- Possession Gap That Shapes Everything: Elche average 59.1% possession with 86.8% pass accuracy, while Levante sit at 40.7% possession and 78% passing — expect very different rhythms.
- Attack Isn’t the Problem for Levante: Despite sitting in the bottom five, Levante have scored 21 in 19 matches — but they’ve also conceded 32, one of the division’s worst records.
Tactical Control: Average Ball Possession
The possession gap between these two sides defines the match rhythm, with Elche looking to dictate play through short passes and high volume.
With an 86.8% pass accuracy, Elche prioritizes territory and ball retention to suffocate opponents.
Levante is comfortable operating without the ball, relying on long balls and through balls to break quickly.
Defensive Stability: Home Goals Conceded
Levante’s struggle to keep opponents out at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia has been a defining feature of their relegation battle.
This tally reflects a significant struggle in defending wide areas and set pieces, where Elche are statistically strong.
Attacking Reliability: Season Goals
Both sides have shown they can find the net consistently despite their respective positions in the league table.
Their 11.3 shots per game indicate a team that creates high-volume scoring opportunities through individual skill.
Despite their league position, Levante maintains a respectable scoring rate of over one goal per game.
Friday night at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia brings a proper contrast of pressure and ambition at 20:00. Levante are 19th with 14 points from 19 matches, six adrift of 17th — and they need points, fast, to stop the ground shifting under them. Elche arrive in eighth on 24 points from 20, still chasing the pack above with an outside push towards the European places.
The mood lines up with the table. Levante have only lost one of their last four league games, but their home form has been grim. Elche have shown both punch and wobble lately — a 4-0 win over Rayo Vallecano sits alongside a 1-3 home loss to Villarreal and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla.
Team News & Lineups
Levante — manager: Luís Castro
- Out: Unai Elgezabal (meniscus tear)
- Out: Roger Brugué (outer ligament tear, out until 01.03.2026)
- Implication: Elgezabal’s absence hits a side that already struggles in the air and under pressure, while missing Brugué reduces options for width and tempo changes.
Probable Levante XI:
Ryan; Toljan, Dela, Matturro, Sanchez; Vencedor, Martinez; Tunde, Alvarez, Romero; Eyong
Elche — manager: Eder Sarabia
- No listed absences here.
- Implication: With rotation part of their identity, Elche can keep their possession structure intact and still threaten with fresh legs in key zones.
Probable Elche XI:
Pena; Josan, Chust, Affengruber, Petrot, Valera; Neto, Aguado, Febas; Diangana, Rodriguez
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Levante | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 8th |
| Points | 14 (19 games) | 24 (20 games) |
| Goals scored | 21 | 27 |
| Goals conceded | 32 | 26 |
| Shots per game | 10.1 | 11.3 |
| Possession | 40.7% | 59.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 78.0% | 86.8% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 7 |
Levante’s numbers scream two things at once: they can get the ball in the net (21), but they leak badly (32 conceded) and suffer when pinned back. Elche look built to control territory — higher possession, sharper passing, and more clean sheets — but they’re not untouchable at the back either with 26 conceded.
If this turns into long spells of Elche possession, Levante’s “very weak” areas — defending set pieces, protecting the lead, and defending attacks down the wings — come into play quickly. If Levante can make it messy, they’ve got enough goal threat in Karl Etta Eyong (5) and Iván Romero (4) to make the night uncomfortable.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Elche’s control vs Levante’s patience
Elche’s identity is clear: short passes, possession football, and a tendency to attack down the left. With 59.1% average possession and 86.8% pass accuracy, they want the ball and they want you chasing it. That suits Aleix Febas in midfield, a high-volume passer with a 91% success rate, and it puts decision-makers like Germán Valera (rated 6.90, 4 goals, 2 assists) in positions to hurt you.
Levante are the opposite vibe. They play long balls, try through balls often, and are comfortable operating in their own half. That can look passive, but it’s also a plan: draw pressure, break lines, and get runners arriving early.
The key mismatch: wide danger areas
The red flag for Levante is right there in their profile: defending against attacks down the wings is listed as very weak, and defending set pieces is also very weak. Elche have a “strong” label for defending set pieces, but going forward they’re “very strong” for creating chances through individual skill and creating long shot opportunities — the sort of attacks that win corners and free-kicks even when the box is crowded.
This is where Elche’s left-sided bias matters. If Elche funnel play into wide areas, they can force Levante to defend repeated deliveries and second balls. Levante have conceded 18 in 8 home league matches — and that isn’t just bad luck, it’s a pattern of pressure moments going the wrong way.
Where Levante can land punches
Levante’s best route is direct and sharp. Eyong (5 goals, 2 shots per game) and Romero (4 goals, 1.8 shots per game) give Castro a front pair who actually shoot often enough to matter. Levante also create chances through through balls and have a noted strength in shooting from direct free kicks, so quick transitions and set-piece moments are their lifeline.
The other point: Elche’s weaknesses include defending counter attacks and stopping opponents from creating chances. That’s the invitation. If Elche commit bodies to sustain possession, Levante have to be brave with the first pass out — not hopeful punts, but targeted balls into channels and into feet for runners like Carlos Álvarez (3 goals, 1 assist) to connect the next phase.
Game state will decide the tone
If Elche score first, they can turn the match into a long chase. Levante are listed as very weak at protecting the lead, but the bigger issue might be chasing without control — their weakness is keeping possession of the ball, and Elche are built to suffocate teams once they’ve got you stretched.
If Levante score first, it’s chaos time. Elche are also flagged as weak at protecting the lead, so an early goal could turn this into an end-to-end night where composure matters more than structure.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces into the Levante box: Levante’s set-piece defending is a glaring concern, and repeated pressure can turn into corners and second-ball scrambles.
- First 15 minutes of territorial control: Elche average 102.08 total attacks per game (to Levante’s 81.14) — if that early pattern shows, Levante may be in for a long evening.
- Transition decisions from Levante: When they win it, do they find Álvarez and Romero quickly enough, or does Elche’s ball-winning strength smother the counter at source?
- Goalkeeper influence: Mathew Ryan has a team-best 7.01 rating for Levante — if this becomes wave after wave, he could be central to keeping it alive.
What could go wrong?
For Elche, sterile domination is the trap: lots of possession, not enough punch, then one through ball and the whole shape is scrambling. For Levante, the danger is obvious — concede first at home again, and the match can slide into a familiar story of defending wide areas, giving up set pieces, and spending too long without the ball to build any momentum.
Best Bet for Levante vs Elche
Can Levante’s Relegation-Battlers Punch Back Against Sarabia’s Possession Machine?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defense | Lev: 18 conceded in 8 home; Elc: 26 total conceded | Back BTTS |
| Attack | Lev: 21 goals scored; Elc: 27 goals scored | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Control | Elc: 59.1% possession; Lev: 40.7% possession | Elche to Win |
Both Teams to Score
Levante enters this fixture as a team of contradictions. They sit 19th in the table, yet their attack is far from dormant, having netted 21 goals across 19 matches. However, their defensive record is a major concern, particularly at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. The hosts have conceded 18 goals in their last 8 home matches, an average of 2.25 goals per game. This defensive fragility, combined with the absence of key defender Unai Elgezabal due to a meniscus tear, makes a clean sheet for the home side highly improbable.
Elche, managed by Eder Sarabia, are a high-volume possession side. They average 59.1% of the ball with an elite pass accuracy of 86.8%. This means they will control the tempo and pin Levante back for long periods. Given Levante is very weak at defending wings and set pieces, Elche’s technical players like Germán Valera and Aleix Febas will find ample opportunities to exploit these gaps. Elche have scored 27 goals this season and should have no trouble finding the net against a back line that has struggled all year.
Despite Elche’s dominance on the ball, they are not defensively impenetrable. They have conceded 26 goals in 20 matches and are specifically noted as weak at defending counter-attacks. This plays directly into Levante’s hands. Luís Castro’s side thrives on long balls and quick through balls, utilizing the goal-scoring instincts of Karl Etta Eyong (5 goals) and Iván Romero (4 goals). With Elche likely to commit bodies forward to sustain their possession game, Levante will find spaces on the break to maintain their scoring record.
What could go wrong?
Elche could produce “sterile domination,” where they hold the ball for long periods without creating clear-cut chances, or Levante could fail to capitalize on their limited transition opportunities. Additionally, if Levante concedes early and retreats into a defensive shell, the match could become a low-scoring affair dominated entirely by Elche’s midfield.
Correct Score Lean
Levante 1-2 Elche
Elche’s superior control of the ball and high pass accuracy (86.8%) will eventually break down a Levante defense that is very weak at defending wide areas. Since Levante have conceded 18 goals in their last 8 home games, Elche should have the quality to score at least twice. However, Levante’s attacking duo of Eyong and Romero are persistent threats on the counter-attack, and Elche’s weakness in stopping opponents from creating chances suggests the home side will get on the scoresheet. A narrow Elche win reflects the technical gap while acknowledging Levante’s home scoring potential.
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