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Can Real Betis land a punch at the Metropolitano, or do Atlético Madrid turn this into another night of control? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Atlético Madrid boast the best home record in La Liga, remaining unbeaten in 15 home matches. Having recently dismantled Betis 5-0 in the Copa del Rey, their superior passing security and tactical dominance at the Metropolitano make a home win with at least two goals highly likely.
Read Rationale ▾
While Atlético are dominant at home, they have a noted problem protecting leads. Real Betis average 15 shots per game and are very strong at finishing chances. Expect Betis to find the net, but Atlético’s home-track authority should see them edge a competitive 2-1 victory.
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Gameweek 23 brings a clash of targets and temperaments at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s Atlético are trying to sharpen the edge after a 0-0 draw at Levante, while their home form has been relentless.
Atletico vs Betis — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Atlético have the best home record in La Liga, taking 31 points from 11 matches at the Metropolitano.
Betis average 15 shots per game, hinting at an open contest despite Atletico’s defensive passing security.
Atlético’s home authority meets Betis’ volume of 15 shots, making a 2-1 margin a plausible outcome.
Atlético rack up 6.88 corners per game, exploiting Betis’ noted weakness in defending set pieces.
Match Preview
Gameweek 23 under the lights at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano brings a proper clash of targets and temperaments. Diego Simeone’s Atlético are third with 45 points, trying to sharpen the edge after a 0-0 draw at Levante. They’re not in a title race, but they are absolutely in a fight to keep their league position tight — and their home form has been relentless.
Manuel Pellegrini’s Betis roll in fifth on 35 points, chasing the teams above while juggling the bruises of a heavy 0-5 Copa del Rey defeat to the same opponents. Kick-off is 17:30. The mood? Atlético want their league win back. Betis want their pride and structure back.
Pressure Indicators: Average Corners per Match
Atlético’s right-sided thrust often results in a high volume of set-piece opportunities compared to Betis.
Their 6.88 corner average exploits a Betis side known to be weak at defending set pieces.
Betis focus more on counter-attacks and wing surges, leading to a lower overall corner frequency.
Technical Precision: Pass Accuracy Percentage
Ball security is a hallmark of Diego Simeone’s side at home, where they average 53.7% possession.
Koke leads this metric with 92.7% accuracy, allowing Atlético to dictate the match rhythm.
Betis attempt more through-balls and long shots, resulting in a slightly lower completion rate.
- Home-Track Authority: Atlético have the best home record in La Liga, taking 31 points from 11 matches, and they’re unbeaten in their last 15 home La Liga games.
- Fresh Memory, Real Edge: This fixture arrives just days after Atlético’s 5-0 Copa del Rey win at Betis, and the recent head-to-head run shows 4 Atlético wins from the last 6 meetings.
- Shot Volume Meets Shot Quality: Betis average 15 shots per game in La Liga (14.83 across all tracked matches), while Atlético sit at 13.4 per league game—expect plenty of attempts, and plenty of pressure moments.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries & Absences
Atlético Madrid: Clément Lenglet (inner ligament injury, out until 01/03/2026).
Real Betis: O. Vaargas (called up to national team).
Atlético Madrid possible starting XI
Oblak; Pubill, Hancko, Gimenez, Ruggeri; Koke, Llorente; Giuliano Simeone, Baena, Lookman; Julián Alvarez
Real Betis possible starting XI
Valles; Ortiz, Bartra, Natan, Rodriguez; Altimira, Roca; Antony, Fornals, Ezzalzouli; Ávila
Tactical Selection Implied
Atlético losing Lenglet narrows Simeone’s defensive options, so the back line’s decision-making under pressure becomes even more important. Betis’ front four looks built to shoot and create—Antony and Ezzalzouli bring direct running, while Fornals is a genuine threat around the box.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Atlético Madrid | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 5th |
| Points | 45 | 35 |
| Goals (La Liga) | 38 | 36 |
| Shots per game (La Liga) | 13.4 | 15.0 |
| Possession % (La Liga) | 53.7% | 50.6% |
| Pass % (La Liga) | 85.8% | 84.3% |
| Clean sheets | 12 (34 games) | 11 (35 games) |
| Corners (avg) | 6.88 | 4.46 |
Tactical Battle
Atlético’s blueprint
Atlético play with short passes and possession football, and they like attacking down the right. That combination can turn matches into long spells of being pinned back, especially when Atlético are winning corners at the rate they do. They’re also very strong from direct free kicks and strong defending set pieces. That matters because Betis have a glaring soft spot: defending set pieces is a weakness. If Atlético are smart, they don’t need to force the perfect open-play goal every time — they can build pressure, squeeze territory, and punish lapses around dead balls.
Betis’ response
Betis’ identity is punchy. They are very strong attacking down the wings, very strong on counter attacks, and they take a lot of shots — plus they’re strong at finishing scoring chances. That is the recipe for an away performance that doesn’t just “survive”. Their style leans to the left, with short passing and through-ball ambition. The risk is obvious: Betis are weak defending against through ball attacks, and Atlético are strong on counter attacks. If Betis push numbers on, they must be clean with the ball, because loose passes can turn into Atlético breaking into space fast.
Midfield Tension
Atlético’s passing security is elite-level in these numbers, and players like Koke (92.7% passing) and Marcos Llorente (89.3%) can throttle the tempo when the game needs calming. Betis can’t afford to spend long spells chasing, because Atlético at home don’t tend to gift momentum. But Betis have genuine match-winners in the data: Cucho Hernández (8 goals), Pablo Fornals (6 goals, 4 assists), Antony (5 goals, 4 assists), and Abde Ezzalzouli (4 goals, 3 assists). If they can create a few high-quality moments early, the whole match changes.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Atlético are strong defending them and dangerous from direct free kicks; Betis have a weakness defending set pieces. That’s a swing factor.
- Through-ball risk: Betis struggle against through balls, while Atlético are strong on counter attacks. One mistimed press can open a runway.
- The corners count: Atlético average 6.88 corners per game. If that starts stacking up, it’s pressure you can feel in the stands.
- Wide duels: Atlético like attacking down the right; Betis like attacking down the left. The full-back battles decide who plays in the front foot.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Atlético, it’s the one weakness you don’t want at home: protecting the lead is a listed problem, and Betis are very strong coming back from losing positions. If Atlético go ahead and then drop their intensity, Betis have the shot volume and finishers to turn the mood instantly. For Betis, it’s the nightmare start — concede early, concede a set-piece, and the Metropolitano turns the match into an exercise in survival rather than ambition.
Market Explainer 📊
Match Result & Total Goals
This market requires predicting the winner and whether the total goals will exceed a specific number. It combines two outcomes for higher potential returns.
Pros: Better value on favourites. Cons: Fails if the team wins with fewer goals than specified.
Correct Score
Predicting the exact final scoreline. This is a high-volatility market that offers large payouts because accuracy is difficult to achieve.
Pros: High rewards. Cons: High risk; a single late goal can spoil the selection entirely.
Atlético Madrid to Win & Over 1.5 Goals Rationale 🎯
Atlético Madrid enter this clash with the most formidable home record in La Liga, having secured 31 points from 11 matches at the Metropolitano. Their authority on home turf is reinforced by an unbeaten streak spanning 15 league games. Just days ago, Diego Simeone’s side demonstrated their dominance over Real Betis with a 5-0 victory in the Copa del Rey, showcasing the significant gulf in quality when these sides meet in high-stakes environments. Atlético’s tactical blueprint relies on elite ball security, boasting an 85.8% pass completion rate which allows them to throttle the tempo and maintain 53.7% possession.
- Atlético have 12 clean sheets and concede fewer high-quality chances at home.
- Betis possess a glaring weakness in defending set pieces, while Atlético average 6.88 corners.
- Head-to-head records show 4 Atlético wins in the last 6 encounters.
Marcos Llorente and Koke provide the passing precision to navigate through Betis’ defensive structure, while Julian Alvarez remains a constant threat in the final third. Given that Betis fire 15 shots per game but are weak at defending through-balls, Atlético’s counter-attacking strength should result in multiple goals.
Risk Factor: Atlético have a listed problem with protecting leads, which could invite pressure if they don’t secure the second goal early.Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Betis Rationale ⚔️
A 2-1 scoreline is plausible given the tension between Atlético’s control and Betis’ attacking volume. Real Betis average 15 shots per league game and possess clinical match-winners like Pablo Fornals and Antony, who have combined for 11 goals and 8 assists. Despite Atlético’s home strength, Manuel Pellegrini’s side is very strong at counter-attacks and Surging down the wings, meaning they have the tools to breach Jan Oblak’s goal, especially as Atlético must manage the absence of Clément Lenglet.
Atlético’s tendency to win a high volume of corners (6.88 per game) will put immense strain on a Betis defence that is weak at defending set pieces. However, since Betis are strong at coming back from losing positions, the match is unlikely to be a one-sided affair like the recent cup meeting. The 2-1 scoreline respects Atlético’s home unbeaten run while acknowledging the offensive threat Betis provide through their left-sided surges and finishing ability.
Risk Factor: If Betis capitalise on their high shot volume early, Atlético may struggle to maintain their usual defensive structure.Interactive Q&A ⊕
How does the “Match Result & Over 1.5 Goals” market work?
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Can Real Betis exploit Atlético’s weaknesses?
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What does “BTTS – Yes” mean in a 2-1 prediction?
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