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Alaves vs Real Madrid predictions for Sunday’s La Liga clash. Real need a result after suffering back-to-back defeats. Sunday’s trip to Campo de Futbol de Mendizorrotza lands at an awkward moment for Real Madrid, and that is precisely why it feels so combustible. Read on for our free La Liga predictions and betting tips.
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Alaves are shaping matches into low-scoring battles, with 13 goals in 15 league games and ten of 15 finishing under 2.5 goals. Their home return is solid too, taking 14 points from eight matches with only two defeats, so a blowout is less likely. Real Madrid are under rising pressure after consecutive defeats and a poor broader run, which typically drives a more controlled, risk-managed approach. Their strong historical edge in this fixture supports them edging it, while the overall match profile supports keeping the total under control.
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A 0-1 away win matches the expected rhythm: Alaves do not often pile up goals (13 in 15), and they have failed to score in five of their seven league defeats, suggesting they can be contained when the opponent stay disciplined. Real Madrid’s circumstances point towards pragmatism rather than flamboyance after two losses and increasing scrutiny, especially with defensive absences encouraging game control. Alaves’ home strength makes a narrow margin more plausible than a runaway result, while Real Madrid’s overall edge makes them the likeliest side to find the decisive moment.
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Alaves vs Real Madrid Predictions and Best Bets
Alaves vs Real Madrid — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
The overall picture points towards Real Madrid carrying the stronger win expectation, but Alaves’ sturdy home returns still keep the draw firmly in play.
Indicators lean towards a tense, low-scoring evening where narrow margins and the scoreless draw remain highly plausible at Mendizorroza.
With Alaves involved in plenty of lower-scoring outcomes this season, the goals markets naturally cluster around tighter totals and measured scoring patterns.
Lucas Boye is Alaves’ leading league scorer, while Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham shape much of Real Madrid’s threat through direct running and late arrivals.
- Home resistance meets elite travel form: Alaves are on 14 points from eight home league matches with only two defeats, yet Real Madrid are described as having the best away record in the division in 2025-26.
- The numbers scream “low-scoring pressure cooker”: Alaves have scored 13 in 15 league games, and ten of those 15 matches have gone under 2.5 goals, shaping a contest where chances may arrive grudgingly.
- Recent mood swing for the visitors: Real Madrid have lost their last two matches, won only two of their last eight in all competitions, and heard whistles after the Manchester City defeat, raising the stakes for a composed response.
Scoring Profile: Alaves Goals For vs Goals Against
Alaves are sitting mid-table, but their numbers underline why their matches can feel like slow-burn chess rather than a goal-fest: modest output, disciplined concessions.
With 13 goals across 15 league games, their attacking returns are measured, which often pushes opponents into long, patient build-up phases.
Conceding 15 in 15 suggests a defence that rarely collapses, which is exactly how teams like Alaves keep favourites sweating and supporters groaning.
Game-State Tendencies: Tight Totals vs Recent Results
These two snapshots explain why this fixture can swing between control and chaos: Alaves often keep totals down, while Real Madrid arrive needing to steady the ship.
Ten of 15 finishing under 2.5 goals hints at a side who are happy to make matches awkward, gritty and, for neutrals, occasionally “character-building”.
With just two wins from eight and consecutive defeats, the visitors are in a results-first mood — not the time for unnecessary risks or fancy moral victories.
Matchup Context: Head-to-Head Tilt
History never decides a match on its own, but it does frame expectations — and this pairing comes with an unmistakable imbalance that shapes how both sides approach it.
Winning 19 of the last 21 meetings paints the picture of a matchup that usually tilts one way — even when the venue tries its best to argue otherwise.
Five wins from 44 meetings underlines the scale of the challenge, which is why Alaves’ best route is often to make the match ugly before making it memorable.
Will Alaves’ home grit turn Mendizorrotza into a trap, or will Real Madrid’s response be cold and clinical?
They are still second in La Liga and only four points behind Barcelona, yet the mood around them has turned from calm confidence to restless impatience in the space of a few days. Back-to-back defeats will do that, especially when the most recent one in Europe ended with whistles once the final result was confirmed. When a stadium starts sounding like a kettle about to boil, you know the next match stops being “another fixture” and becomes a referendum on the direction of the team.
Alaves, meanwhile, are not arriving with the same existential noise, but they do have genuine reasons to believe they can make this uncomfortable. They are 11th with 18 points from 15 league matches, built on a season record of five wins, three draws and seven defeats. The league table says mid-table, yet the emotional temperature is warmer than that. December has already brought a morale lift: a 1-0 win over Real Sociedad on December 6, plus a Copa del Rey victory over Portugalete at the start of the month. That combination matters because it changes the way a team defends; sides who feel brittle retreat, while sides who feel brave make you earn every metre.
Why this match could feel tight even when the names look lopsided
The raw history between these clubs screams “tough afternoon for the hosts”. Alaves have met Real Madrid 44 times and only won five, and Real Madrid are on a seven-game winning run against them. Add that Los Blancos have not lost at Mendizorrotza since October 2018 and it reads like a script you have seen before. The problem with scripts is that football loves tearing them up when context shifts, and the context here is loud: Real Madrid are wobbling, and Alaves are set up to make wobblers look even more unsteady.
Tactically, the matchup has a clear tension. Alaves have scored 13 goals in 15 league games and conceded 15 across that same stretch, which points to a side who are far more comfortable grinding than gambling. Ten of their 15 La Liga matches have finished under 2.5 goals, and in five of their seven league defeats they failed to score at all. That’s not a team profile that invites a shoot-out; it’s a profile that invites patience, frustration, and long spells where the favourite has the ball but not the joy.
That is awkward for Real Madrid because the data you’ve provided says breaking down low blocks has been an issue for them this season, while they tend to look better when matches become open and end-to-end. If Alaves are disciplined and happy to sit in, the visitors can end up doing a lot of running for a small amount of reward. And yes, it’s a little controversial to say it out loud, but sometimes the “bigger” team’s problem is not effort or quality — it’s entitlement. The moment you assume the game will bend to your will is the moment it stops doing so.
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Team news that shapes the chessboard
Alaves are missing Nikola Maras with a knee injury and Facundo Garces due to suspension, while Jon Guridi needs assessment. Otherwise, they are in decent shape, and given how impressive they were against Real Sociedad, continuity would make sense. Lucas Boye (three league goals this season) is expected to lead the line, with Denis Suarez offering craft behind or alongside, supported by names such as Calebe, Ibanez and Rebbach, and protected by Guevara.
Real Madrid’s list is longer and, frankly, more disruptive. Dani Carvajal, Ferland Mendy, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, Endrick, Fran Garcia and Alvaro Carreras are all definitely out, with suspensions and injuries stretching the defensive options. Eduardo Camavinga, David Alaba, Dean Huijsen and Kylian Mbappe still require assessment. Huijsen returned to training on Friday and could feature, but Mbappe missed the Manchester City match with a knee issue and risks may be avoided. The likely shape points to Courtois in goal; Valverde, Rudiger, Huijsen and Asencio across the back (with Asencio potentially moved to left-back); Guler, Tchouameni and Ceballos in midfield; Bellingham as the connector; and Rodrygo with Vinicius Junior as the forward pair. That is a strong XI on paper, but paper doesn’t defend set pieces, and paper doesn’t deal with an afternoon where every second ball feels like an argument.
Best Bet for This Match
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Real Madrid to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Here at bettingtips4you we do something that feels almost rebellious in the modern betting world: we do not throw a buffet of selections at you and hope one sticks. Instead, we select one prediction from all the possible bets available for the match and present it as the ultimate call for this specific clash. The logic is simple: quality beats quantity, clarity beats confusion, and accountability beats noise. If there is only one best bet per event, it is easier for readers because there is no second-guessing which angle to take, and it is easier to judge our profitability because every match has one clear, measurable outcome.
Why this is the single best angle to back (rationale)
A straight “win” price on Real Madrid can look tempting on reputation alone, but the deeper value in this fixture comes from combining their likely response with the game-state Alaves usually create. Real Madrid are arriving after two defeats, including a 2-0 home loss to Celta Vigo in La Liga and a 2-1 home defeat to Manchester City in midweek, with audible frustration from supporters afterwards. Teams in that situation rarely chase chaos early; they typically prioritise control, especially under a coach facing growing pressure. Xabi Alonso “cannot afford another setback” according to the information provided, and that kind of moment often produces a more pragmatic match plan: stabilise first, sparkle later.
Alaves are also pointing the game towards a lower total. They have 13 goals scored in 15 league matches, and ten of their 15 have ended under 2.5 goals. Even in their defeats, five of seven came with them failing to score, which hints at a side who can be shut out when the opponent are patient and organised. Add their defensive concession rate (15 allowed in 15) and you get a team who are not routinely blown apart. At home they have collected 14 points from eight matches and only lost twice, so they are not likely to roll over just because the visitors arrive wearing famous shirts.
This is where “Real Madrid to Win & Under 3.5 Goals” becomes the neatest fit for the evidence. It acknowledges the visitors’ superior record in the matchup (including a seven-game winning run against Alaves) while respecting the reality that Alaves tend to drag matches into a tight corridor. It also accounts for Real Madrid’s structural disruption at the back: with multiple defensive absences and a possible reshuffle featuring Raul Asencio at left-back, the visitors may prefer not to turn the game into a track meet. A calmer, controlled away performance — like their 3-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao in their last league away match — is the blueprint, even if the scoreline does not need to be as emphatic to cash this particular selection.
“BettingTips4You.com expert quote – we will then review it before publishing to make sure it is in line with our thinking: It’s not just about who are better; it’s about what kind of match Alaves are likely to force. If Real Madrid are serious about stopping the noise, they will accept a workmanlike win — and that usually keeps the total goals in check.”
As for the likely correct score, 0-1 to Real Madrid fits the emotional and tactical shape suggested by the data. Alaves’ season scoring rate is modest, their matches frequently stay under common goal lines, and Real Madrid’s urgency is more about stopping the slide than putting on a circus. It might not be the most glamorous scoreline, but neither is whistling your own team — and yet here we are.
Likely score: Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid.
Alaves are repeatedly involved in tight, low-scoring games (13 goals in 15; ten of 15 under 2.5), and they often blank in defeats. Real Madrid are under pressure to respond, so a controlled, narrow away win fits the match shape.
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