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Ajax head into Wednesday night’s KNVB Cup second-round trip to Sportpark Dijkpolder with a point to prove. The last time they were at this stage, they were dumped out by fourth-tier Hercules Utrecht in 2023–24, a proper cup bruise that still stings when you mention it around Amsterdam. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Ajax games average 3.13 total goals and they take 14.56 shots per match, with 6.00 on target, which is consistent with steady chance creation. Excelsior Maassluis matches average 2.76 goals and they concede 1.59 per match, so the tie can drift into a three-goal game if Ajax convert pressure. Ajax’s away split (1.86 conceded per match and BTTS 100% away) also hints the hosts can contribute, helping the total clear 2.5.
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Ajax’s most frequent full-time scoreline is 2–0 (four times in 16), showing they often land on two goals. But their away split shows 0% clean sheets and 1.86 conceded per match, while Excelsior Maassluis score 1.44 per match at home. That combination makes a narrow away win with a home goal a reasonable lean, while accepting that correct scores carry obvious variance.
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Excelsior Maassluis vs Ajax Predictions and Best Bets
Excelsior Maassluis vs Ajax — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample odds displayed in decimal format.
The headline 1X2 prices shown are extremely tight across all three outcomes, so treat this slide as a display of the listed numbers rather than a strong read on game flow.
These percentages are the most frequent full-time scorelines recorded for each side in their league season data, shown here as a quick guide to common outcomes rather than a firm prediction.
These percentages reflect each team’s season rates (league formats differ), used here to frame how often certain goal patterns have appeared across their campaigns.
A quick snapshot of the displayed goal-line numbers. The percentage figures here are simple 1/odds conversions, shown for context alongside the listed prices.
- Ajax sit 3rd in the Eredivisie with 8 wins from 16 and 30 goals scored, which points to a side that generally finds a way to take control and create chances.
- Excelsior Maassluis are 15th of 19 in the Tweede Divisie with 4 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, conceding 27 goals in 17 — a sign opponents regularly get opportunities.
- Ajax’s away split shows BTTS at 100% and 1.86 conceded per match, suggesting their trips can become open contests where the home side still finds a route to goal.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored per League Match
A simple way to frame how often each side finds the net across their league campaigns, before the cup context adds its own unpredictability.
That figure captures their baseline scoring level over the season rather than any single one-off result.
Their league average points to a steadier attacking return across the campaign.
Defensive Baseline: Conceded per Match & Clean Sheets
Conceding rates show how often opponents score; clean-sheet percentages show how regularly a team shuts the door completely.
Their clean-sheet rate is 29% across the season, which shows they can keep teams out but not consistently.
Ajax’s clean-sheet rate is 25%, and the conceded-per-match number gives a quick snapshot of their defensive floor over the campaign.
Chance Creation: Shots per Match & xG For
Shots per match measures volume; xG for per match estimates chance quality over time—useful context when two teams come from different league levels.
Their xG for is 1.48 per match, showing the typical chance output tied to that shot volume.
Their xG for is 1.72 per match, pairing volume with a steady level of chance quality across the season.
Can Excelsior Maassluis make Ajax sweat again in the cup?
This time, the mood music is healthier. Ajax have won four consecutive matches in all competitions, and their league season has them third in the Eredivisie with 8 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 16 games. They’re scoring 1.88 goals per match and averaging 57% possession, so the ball tends to be theirs and the scoreboard tends to move.
Excelsior Maassluis, meanwhile, are in the Tweede Divisie and sit 15th of 19 after 17 matches, with 4 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats. Their overall points-per-game is 1.00 and the profile is scrappy: 1.18 goals scored per match, 1.59 conceded, and an average match total of 2.76 goals. At home it’s steadier (4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9), but away it’s been bleak (0 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses) — which matters less here, because this one is on their patch and the cup has a habit of making visiting giants sweat.
The team sheets, as far as they’re being sketched out, point towards both sides setting up in a familiar 4–3–3 shape. Excelsior Maassluis’ possible XI is Fakiri; Varela, Ringeling, Udenhout, Tureaij; Van Eerden, Plank, Hamd; Verbont, Wennekers, Tavares. Ajax’s possible XI is Pasveer; Alders, Bouman, Baas, Rosa; Steur, Itakura, Mokio; Edvardsen, Konadu, Moro.
On paper, it reads like a classic cup storyline: a home side that can be organised and brave, against a heavyweight that wants control, rhythm, and zero drama. But football rarely reads the script, and Ajax know that better than most after that Hercules shock.
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Best Bet for Excelsior Maassluis vs Ajax
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Over 2.5 Goals
Rationale
Start with the shapes and what they imply on the pitch. Both projected line-ups look like 4–3–3s, which usually means you’ll see wide forwards trying to pin full-backs, a midfield trio asked to balance pressing and protection, and plenty of moments where the game stretches when possession turns over. That matters here because Ajax’s numbers suggest they play at a higher tempo with the ball, while Excelsior Maassluis’ season suggests their matches rarely stay completely quiet for long.
Ajax average 14.56 shots per match, with 6.00 on target. That’s a useful measure because shots on target, in plain terms, are the attempts that actually force saves or become goals — they’re a quick indicator of whether a team is reliably getting into dangerous zones rather than just passing it around. Over a full match, that volume tends to produce chances, and chances tend to produce goals. Ajax’s xG For is 1.72 per match and they score 1.88 per match, which is consistent with a side that generates enough to get on the scoresheet most weeks.
Now look at what Excelsior Maassluis bring to the party. They’re not a shot-shy team: 11.76 shots per match, 4.88 on target. Their conversion rate is 10%, and they score 1.18 per match overall, rising to 1.44 per match at home. That home scoring number is important because it’s the best case for this bet: if they can land a punch in their own stadium, the match is far more likely to cross the three-goal line, even if Ajax do most of the heavy lifting.
The other side of the same coin is defending. Excelsior Maassluis concede 1.59 goals per match overall, and while it tightens at home (1.00 conceded per match), they’ve still allowed 27 goals across 17 league games. That’s not a moral judgement — it’s simply what the number measures: how often opponents are finding the net against them. Against an Ajax side that’s scored 30 league goals in 16 matches, the expectation is that Ajax create enough to score at least once, and quite possibly more.
Crucially, Ajax aren’t exactly a travelling clean-sheet machine. Their clean sheet rate is 25% overall, but it drops to 0% away in the league splits shown, and they concede 1.86 per away match. Even if Ajax control the ball, those away concessions tell you there are game states where opponents still find a route to goal — transitions, set-pieces, a moment of chaos, whatever the cause. You don’t need to over-explain it: conceding nearly two a game away is a clear signal that the door is not always bolted.
That leads into the most supportive stat for a goals angle: Ajax have BTTS landing at 69% overall and 100% away. BTTS is simply “both teams score”, and while we’re not betting that directly here, it’s a strong hint that Ajax matches can open up — especially away from home — with the opponent contributing. If Excelsior Maassluis do score, the Over 2.5 line becomes much easier to reach.
There’s also a broader “match tempo” clue in the average total goals. Ajax matches average 3.13 total goals, Excelsior Maassluis matches average 2.76. Neither number guarantees fireworks, but they’re consistent with games that more often drift into three-goal territory than stay stuck in a 0–0 trench.
The tactical picture that fits those numbers is fairly straightforward. Ajax, with 57% average possession and higher shot volume, should spend long spells in the attacking third. Excelsior Maassluis, with 46% possession on average, are more likely to have to work without the ball for stretches, then break when they can. In cup ties, that dynamic often produces two things: sustained pressure from the bigger side (good for goals), and a handful of counter-attacking chances for the underdog (also good for goals). It doesn’t need to become a fantasy about pressing triggers and intricate rotations — the simple mechanism is enough.
What could go wrong?
Cup football can turn cagey if the favourite scores early and manages the game, or if the underdog settles into a low-risk rhythm and prioritises survival over adventure. Excelsior Maassluis also have 53% of matches under 2.5 goals in their league season, which is a reminder that plenty of their games don’t hit three. And if Ajax dominate territory but don’t convert — it happens — you can end up with a comfortable 0–2 that still lands, or a frustrating 0–1 that doesn’t. Fine lines, as ever.
Correct score lean
Ajax 2–1 is a sensible lean rather than a prophecy. Ajax’s most frequent full-time scoreline is 2–0 (four times in 16), which underlines how often they land on two goals, but their away profile shows 0% clean sheets and 1.86 conceded per match, making a home goal feel plausible too. Excelsior Maassluis also score 1.44 per match at home, and Quincy Tavares has 8 league goals, so they’ve got at least one finisher capable of turning a moment into a goal. Put those together and 2–1 sits neatly alongside an Over 2.5 stance: Ajax do the bulk of the scoring, but Excelsior Maassluis give the crowd a reason to make some noise.
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