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Bologna vs Inter Milan Predictions A place in the Supercoppa Italiana final is on the line in Riyadh on Friday evening, with last season’s Serie A runners-up Inter Milan facing Coppa Italia winners Bologna. Monday’s decider awaits for the winner, where either Napoli or AC Milan will be waiting. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Preston North End are in strong form following a 2-0 away win and have shown excellent defensive organization, conceding only four goals in their last six matches. Their aerial dominance, led by Jordan Storey's 4.7 wins per match, directly targets Wigan’s known weakness in the air. Wigan’s tendency to receive red cards and their recent defensive struggles—conceding seven in six games—suggest they will find it difficult to contain a higher-tier side at Deepdale. Preston’s ability to win without needing high possession makes them a reliable choice in this knockout format.
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This selection aligns with Preston's recent performances, including their latest 2-0 victory. The hosts have maintained high defensive standards with consecutive clean sheets, while Wigan have struggled to find the net in their most recent outings. Preston's clinical nature—averaging 1.39 goals per game—and their strength in creating long-shot opportunities match up well against a Wigan defense that is vulnerable to distance strikes. A two-goal margin for the home side captures the gap in current form and defensive reliability between the Championship and League One outfits.
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Bologna vs Inter Milan Predictions and Best Bets
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- Inter’s pressure profile: 34 goals in 15 Serie A matches (2.27 per game) alongside 17.47 shots per match points to sustained chance volume, not just clinical finishing, and that shapes how long Bologna can absorb pressure.
- Bologna’s defensive base: just 13 goals conceded in 15 (0.87 per game) and clean sheets in 40% of league matches suggests they can keep the scoreline tight long enough for one attacking spell to matter.
- Possession battle in miniature: Inter average 60% possession and Bologna 57%, a rare pairing that hints this may hinge less on who has the ball and more on who uses it to control wide zones and transitions.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides have lived in fairly busy scorelines this season, but Inter Milan matches have carried a higher overall goal tempo than Bologna’s.
A higher match-goals average can point to games that swing between phases quickly, with momentum shifts arriving fast.
Bologna’s lower match-goals average hints at tighter stretches where patience and decision-making in the final third matter.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets are a simple snapshot of how often a side keeps the game under control all the way to full-time.
Nearly half their league matches have ended with a clean sheet, which speaks to sustained control rather than one-off heroics.
Six clean sheets underline a team that can protect its box for long periods, even when the game turns scrappy.
Attacking Activity: Shots per League Match
Shot volume doesn’t guarantee goals, but it does show who tends to spend more time pushing the game towards the opposition area.
A high shots-per-match number suggests sustained pressure phases, with repeated entries and second balls becoming important.
Bologna’s shot volume is still healthy, but it leans towards choosing moments rather than firing at every half-chance.
Can Bologna’s first Supercoppa night disrupt Inter’s rhythm in Riyadh?
For Bologna, it’s a first-ever supercup contest — a new stage, new surroundings, and the kind of occasion that can either sharpen the senses or make legs feel a touch heavier than usual. Inter, meanwhile, arrive carrying the familiar weight of expectation that follows a side sitting top of the Serie A table after 15 matches, with 34 goals scored and 14 conceded.
Bologna’s league position tells its own story too: sixth, with 23 scored and just 13 conceded. That defensive base gives them a chance in any one-off, but the match-up — and the likely shapes — hint at a tactical evening where small decisions in wide areas and midfield spacing could tilt the whole thing.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Bologna’s possible starting XI reads: Ravaglia; Holm, Lucumí, Heggem, Miranda; Moro, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Castro.
That looks like a 4-2-3-1 on paper, with Moro and Ferguson as the double pivot and a line of three behind Castro. In that structure, the balance is pretty clear: Orsolini and Cambiaghi can provide directness from the flanks, Odgaard can knit attacks together between the lines, and the full-backs — Holm and Miranda — have the potential to decide how brave Bologna are in possession.
Inter’s possible XI: J. Martinez; Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni; Henrique, Barella, Zielinski, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez.
That suggests Inter’s familiar 3-5-2 shape, with Akanji, Bisseck and Bastoni as the back three, wing-backs providing width, and a midfield trio that can control tempo through Barella, Zielinski and Mkhitaryan. Up top, Thuram and Martinez gives Inter a two-man frontline that can threaten in behind or pin centre-backs to create pockets for runners from midfield.
The match could hinge on where Bologna choose to match Inter’s width. If Holm and Miranda push high, it can help Bologna get out — but it also hands Inter’s wing-backs space to attack the outside channels, and those are exactly the zones a 3-5-2 loves to overload.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first question is simple: who gets to play in the opponent’s half?
Inter’s set-up points to long spells with the ball, and it’s not guesswork to say they’re comfortable doing that — their average possession sits at 60% in Serie A this season. Bologna aren’t exactly strangers to keeping it either at 57%, so this may not be a siege so much as a fight for rhythm: who dictates the speed of circulation, and who forces the other into rushed decisions.
Out of possession, Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 gives them clear reference points against Inter’s build-up. Castro can screen passes into midfield, Odgaard can jump onto Inter’s deepest midfielder lanes, and the wide players can step to wing-backs. The trick is that Inter’s back three can stretch that first line: if Bologna press high, gaps can appear either side of the two midfielders, especially if Barella or Mkhitaryan find space to receive on the half-turn.
In possession, Bologna’s most obvious route is to use the flanks to move Inter’s wing-backs back towards their own goal. If Orsolini and Cambiaghi can receive early and drive at the outside centre-backs, you can force that back three into uncomfortable wider defending — and when that happens, spaces can open for Odgaard arriving between lines or for Castro to occupy the central defenders.
But Inter’s shape naturally creates its own counters to that. With three centre-backs, they can shuffle across and still keep cover. And with wing-backs, they can quickly flip the picture: one moment Bologna’s winger is trying to create, the next he’s sprinting back to deal with Dimarco or Henrique arriving high.
Midfield is where the subtlety lives. Bologna’s Moro and Ferguson will need to judge when to sit and protect central space and when to step in and disrupt Inter’s buildup. If they sit too deep, Inter’s midfield three can camp around the edge of the final third and feed the forwards; if they step too aggressively, Thuram and Martinez become a problem the moment Inter can play through pressure.
Then there’s the transition game. Bologna’s away numbers suggest they can be effective on the road, and a compact 4-2-3-1 can be built for quick counters if the wide players are ready to spring. The danger is Inter have both the volume of chances and the structure to recycle attacks quickly. If Bologna can’t keep the ball for long spells, they may end up defending wave after wave, where one lapse in spacing is all it takes.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Inter’s league output has been relentless: 34 goals in 15 matches, which works out at 2.27 scored per game, and they average 17.47 shots per match. That combination matters because it’s not just about efficiency — it’s repeat pressure. When a side produces that many attempts, defending becomes less about winning one duel and more about surviving a sequence of actions without one tiny mistake.
There’s also a tempo element: Inter score a goal every 40 minutes in Serie A. That doesn’t mean an early goal is inevitable, but it does underline how quickly they can turn control into an actual scoreboard problem — especially if Bologna’s defensive line gets pinned and clearances keep coming straight back.
Bologna, though, aren’t arriving as cannon fodder. They’ve conceded only 13 goals in 15 matches — 0.87 per game — and keep clean sheets in 40% of their league matches. That’s a strong platform for a one-off contest, because it suggests they can stay in games even when they’re not dominating them.
The attacking numbers hint at a different style of threat. Bologna average 1.53 goals scored per match and take 13.67 shots per match — a lower volume than Inter, but not a meek one. It suggests their best moments will likely need to be more selective: win the ball, get it forward quickly, and make the first attack count rather than aiming to trade chance-for-chance over 90 minutes.
Individual production adds colour too. For Inter, Lautaro Martínez has 8 league goals, with Marcus Thuram on 4. For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini leads with 6, while Santiago Thomas Castro has 4. In a match where spaces may be limited, having a forward who doesn’t need five invitations can be the difference between “good spell” and “actual goal”.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One: Bologna’s wide players versus Inter’s wide structure. If Orsolini and Cambiaghi can isolate defenders and force Inter’s wing-backs to retreat, Bologna can change the height of the game. If Inter pin Bologna’s full-backs early, Bologna’s wingers may spend too much of the night doing the hard yards without the ball — honest work, but not the point of picking them.
Two: the midfield squeeze. Barella, Zielinski and Mkhitaryan as a trio can suffocate the centre if Bologna’s pivot gets stretched. The key moment might not be a tackle; it might be whether Moro and Ferguson can stay connected while still being brave enough to step out and contest second balls.
Three: the finishing touch from the headline names. Inter’s attack has spread goals around — Thuram, Martínez, and others — while Bologna’s output has Orsolini and Castro as key scorers. In a Supercoppa semi-final, it’s often one clean action that breaks the pattern: a sharp run across a defender, a finish through traffic, or a composed final pass under pressure.
What could go wrong with this read? A one-off match on a big stage can scramble scripts. An early goal can flip the entire tactical balance, forcing a side out of its comfort zone. And when teams with strong defensive numbers meet an opponent that creates chances in volume, fine margins — one deflection, one loose clearance, one mistimed step — can decide everything.
Best Bet for Bologna vs Inter
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Inter Milan to Win
The case for Inter Milan securing their place in the Supercoppa final rests on a combination of tactical maturity, overwhelming offensive volume, and the psychological edge of being the competition’s seasoned frontrunners. Arrying in Riyadh as the Serie A leaders, Inter have demonstrated a level of consistency that is difficult to ignore. Over the course of 15 league matches, they have amassed 34 goals, translating to a scoring rate of 2.27 per game. This isn’t merely a statistic; it represents a relentless style of play where they average 17.47 shots per match. For a side like Bologna, who are entering their first-ever Supercoppa contest, surviving this level of repeat pressure requires a perfect defensive performance over 90 minutes.
Tactically, Inter’s 3-5-2 system is designed to exploit the very areas where Bologna might struggle. With wing-backs like Dimarco and Henrique stretching the pitch, Inter create natural overloads in the wide channels. If Bologna’s full-backs, Holm and Miranda, push high to support their own attack, they leave space behind for Inter’s runners. Conversely, if they sit deep, they allow Inter’s midfield trio of Barella, Zielinski, and Mkhitaryan to camp around the final third. Inter’s ability to score a goal every 40 minutes suggests that even if Bologna starts strongly, the sheer volume of chances created by the Nerazzurri eventually forces a breakthrough.
Bologna’s defensive record is undeniably impressive, conceding just 0.87 goals per game, but this match presents a unique challenge. While Bologna averages 57% possession, they will be facing a side that typically dominates 60% of the ball. This shift in rhythm can be exhausting in a high-stakes knockout environment. Furthermore, Inter possesses an elite strike partnership in Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram. Having forwards who can convert half-chances is vital in one-off matches where spaces are limited. Inter’s structural ability to recycle attacks quickly means that even when they lose the ball, they are well-positioned to prevent Bologna from launching the quick transitions they rely on through Orsolini and Cambiaghi.
What could go wrong? A single-elimination match on neutral territory is always prone to variance. If Bologna manages to score an early goal via a counter-attack, they have the defensive organization (keeping clean sheets in 40% of their games) to sit deep and frustrate Inter. Additionally, a standout performance from Bologna’s wide players could force Inter’s wing-backs into a purely defensive role, effectively neutralizing one of their primary attacking outlets and turning the game into a low-volume cagey affair.
Correct Score Lean
Bologna 1-2 Inter This scoreline reflects Inter’s statistical trend of outscoring opponents while acknowledging Bologna’s resilience. Inter’s average of 2.27 goals per game suggests they will find the net twice, while Bologna’s 1.53 goals scored per match and Inter’s 14 goals conceded this season hint at a consolation or competitive reply from the underdogs.
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