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Resurgent Blues Meet Saints With Plenty to Prove. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Waterford have scored 11 goals in their last four matches, showing incredible attacking form under Graham Coughlan. However, they concede an average of two goals per game. St Patrick’s possess an excellent attack but have struggled away, making goals at both ends highly likely in UK English.
St Patrick’s Athletic have drawn three of their last five away fixtures, demonstrating a tendency to stall on the road. With Waterford enjoying significant defensive improvements and scoring momentum at home, a competitive 1-1 stalemate represents a highly plausible outcome for both sides.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Waterford v St Patrick's Athl..
Waterford United host St Patrick’s Athletic in Gameweek 24 of the League of Ireland Premier Division, with the Blues chasing safety and the Saints eyeing the top two.
Waterford United vs St Patrick’s — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
St Patrick’s are favored by the listed prices, but their five-match winless away run provides hope for resurgent Waterford.
Waterford scored 11 goals in four matches, which heavily impacts the expectations on the total goals line here.
St Patrick’s have conceded only 19 goals in 23 league games, making tight scorelines the main focus.
St Patrick’s average 54% possession against Waterford’s 39%, highlighting the clear tactical split expected on Friday.
Three Punchy Stats
- Waterford have scored 11 goals in their last four league matches, a burst that has transformed the feel of their season and dragged them back towards the survival conversation.
- St Patrick’s Athletic have conceded only 19 goals in 23 league games, giving them one of the strongest defensive records in this matchup.
- The Saints have failed to win any of their last five away fixtures, with three draws and two defeats, despite sitting third in the table.
Tactical Style: Average Ball Possession
The possession metrics highlight a deep structural contrast between how these two teams try to direct proceedings during a league game.
They managed only 30% possession in their recent impressive win at Derry, showing comfort operating without the ball.
Stephen Kenny’s side prefer to control matches, reaching up to 64% possession in their latest home outing.
Passing Precision: Completion Rates
Passing accuracy metrics explain how cleanly each outfit works the ball through central areas to set their distinct attacking tempo.
A lower completion rate reflects their preference for rapid transitions and direct forward distributions toward Tom Lonergan.
The Saints display superior efficiency on the ball, completing 10,515 total passes over the season.
Waterford United vs St Patrick’s Athletic: A Friday Night Test With Real Bite
Waterford United welcome St Patrick’s Athletic to the Waterford Regional Sports Centre on Friday night in one of those League of Ireland fixtures that feels bigger than a single set of three points. It is Gameweek 24, kick-off is set for 8.00pm, and the mood around both clubs is very different from where it was only a few weeks ago.
Waterford are ninth with 20 points from 23 matches. That still keeps them in the danger zone, but it no longer feels like a side sleepwalking towards the bottom. Graham Coughlan has injected belief, energy and a bit of edge into the Blues since taking charge in early May. They were bottom when he arrived, nine points behind Sligo Rovers, and now they are level with Sligo on points and just two behind Drogheda United. That is not a miracle yet, but it is at least the start of something that has supporters looking at the table without immediately covering one eye.
St Patrick’s Athletic arrive third with 41 points from 23 league games. Stephen Kenny’s side are still chasing the clubs above them, sitting two points behind Bohemians and nine behind Shamrock Rovers, while also having played fewer games than both. Their position is strong, their defensive numbers are excellent, and their ceiling looks high. But there is one fairly awkward detail: their away form has started to creak like an old garden gate.
Waterford’s Revival Has Become Impossible to Ignore
Waterford’s recent run has changed the tone of their season. Their last six league matches read three wins, one draw and two defeats, with victories over Sligo Rovers, Dundalk and Derry City. The 4-0 home win over Sligo was particularly important because it came against a direct rival near the bottom. The 3-2 comeback away to Dundalk then added drama and resilience. Most recently, the 4-2 win at Derry City showed that this team can travel to difficult venues and still punch hard.
The Derry result was striking because Waterford had only 30% possession yet scored four times. That tells a very specific tactical story. This is not a side trying to dominate every match through long spells on the ball. They can be direct, efficient and ruthless when space opens up. Five shots on target were enough to do serious damage, with Tom Lonergan scoring twice and Padraig Amond and Joergen Voilaas also finding the net.
Lonergan is becoming central to the entire narrative. He scored a brace against Derry City, having also hit two in the previous outing. Across the available scoring charts, he leads Waterford with nine goals, ahead of Padraig Amond on five and John Mahon on three. For a team fighting at the wrong end of the division, having a forward catching fire is priceless. It gives belief to the dressing room and panic to defenders. Not bad for a side that, a month ago, looked like it might need a search party just to find a clean path out of trouble.
The Saints Are Strong, But Not Without Questions
St Patrick’s Athletic have the cleaner overall profile. They have 12 wins, five draws and six defeats from 23 league games, scoring 38 and conceding only 19. That goal difference of +19 is the kind of number that usually belongs to a side with serious ambitions. They are also coming off a confident 3-0 home win over Galway United, with Ryan Edmondson, Kian Leavy and Aidan Keena all scoring during a sharp 15-minute first-half burst.
That win mattered because it followed a 2-0 defeat against Bohemians. The response was authoritative. St Patrick’s Athletic did not ease back into rhythm; they snapped into it. They had 64% possession and 11 shots on goal against Galway United, which reflects their usual preference for control and territorial pressure. In their last 10 league matches, they have averaged 56.4% possession, 17.9 attempts and 5.1 shots on goal.
Defensively, the Saints are especially impressive. In those same last 10 league matches, they have conceded only 0.8 goals per game, with opponents averaging 2.7 shots on goal. Across their wider season numbers, they have conceded 28 goals in 29 matches in all listed fixtures, an average of 0.97 per game. That is tidy, disciplined work. No fireworks, no nonsense, no defending like everyone has just met in the car park.
And yet, this match is not as simple as third versus ninth. St Patrick’s Athletic have not won any of their last five away fixtures, drawing three and losing two. Their most recent away league matches include defeats at Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers, plus draws at Derry City, Sligo Rovers and Galway United. A team with title-chasing ambitions cannot keep leaving away grounds with a shrug and a “could have been worse”.
Why The Midfield Battle Could Decide The Tempo
The tactical contrast is clear. Waterford are far less possession-heavy, averaging 39% possession overall, while St Patrick’s Athletic average 54%. Waterford’s passing volume is also lower, with 6,080 total passes and an average of 264.35 per game, compared with St Patrick’s Athletic’s 10,515 total passes and 362.59 per game. The Saints are more accurate too, completing 79% of passes compared with Waterford’s 60%.
That suggests St Patrick’s Athletic will try to take the ball, stretch the pitch and make Waterford defend for long spells. The likely structure should help them do that, with Daniel Rogers behind a back three of Joe Redmond, Sean Hoare and Luke Turner, and a midfield line expected to feature James Brown, Jamie Lennon, Romal Palmer and Jason McClelland.
Waterford, though, may not mind being without the ball. Their recent win at Derry showed they can absorb pressure and still attack with purpose. With Stephen McMullan in goal, a defensive unit involving John Mahon, Kevin Long and Hayden Cann, and wide support from Jordan Houston and Benny Couto, the Blues can build a compact platform. Will Johnson, Conan Noonan and Sam Glenfield may be asked to cover enormous ground, especially if St Patrick’s Athletic push numbers into the central lanes.
The key for Waterford is not possession for its own sake. It is whether they can make their possession count. Their season shooting numbers show 287 total shots at 12.48 per game, with 30% on target and 66% coming from inside the box. St Patrick’s Athletic are more productive, with 476 total shots at 16.41 per game, 31% on target and 64% from inside the area. Both sides generate a strong share of efforts in dangerous locations, but St Patrick’s Athletic do it with greater frequency.
Head-To-Head Adds Heat To The Evening
Recent meetings favour St Patrick’s Athletic. They won 4-1 at Richmond Park in May and 2-0 at the Waterford Regional Sports Centre in March. Across the last six listed Premier Division meetings, St Patrick’s Athletic have won four and drawn two, while Waterford have not won any of those encounters.
That matters psychologically, but it should not overwhelm the current context. Waterford are not entering this match as the same flat, uncertain side that spent too long rooted to the bottom. They have scored 11 goals across their last four matches, including four against Sligo and four at Derry. They are chaotic, yes. They concede too often, absolutely. But they have found a pulse, and sometimes a pulse is enough to turn a relegation fight into a street fight.
St Patrick’s Athletic, meanwhile, must prove they can transfer their home authority onto the road. Their home win over Galway was polished and efficient. Their away record is more complicated. They have won only one of their last six listed away matches, drawing three and losing two. For all their superior league position, this is precisely the kind of fixture that tests whether a strong side is merely good, or genuinely ruthless.
Team News And Likely Lineups
Waterford are still without Evan McLaughlin, who has been sidelined since May with a leg injury. Finlay Armstrong has also been dealing with a muscle problem, which points towards Benny Couto and Jordan Houston operating wide of a back three. Conan Noonan, Will Johnson and Dean McMenamy are among the central midfield options, while Tom Lonergan and Padraig Amond provide the obvious attacking threat.
Waterford could line up with Stephen McMullan in goal, protected by John Mahon, Kevin Long and Hayden Cann. Jordan Houston and Benny Couto may work as wing-backs, with Will Johnson, Conan Noonan and Sam Glenfield in midfield. Padraig Amond and Tom Lonergan are expected to lead the attack.
St Patrick’s Athletic are without Joseph Anang, with Daniel Rogers set to continue in goal. A back three of Joe Redmond, Sean Hoare and Luke Turner looks likely, while James Brown, Jamie Lennon, Romal Palmer and Jason McClelland could form the midfield and wing-back unit. Kian Leavy and Aidan Keena should support Ryan Edmondson in attack.
Final Analysis: A Clash Of Momentum Against Control
This match is fascinating because it is not simply about league position. St Patrick’s Athletic are clearly higher in the table, stronger defensively and more consistent across the season. They pass better, shoot more often, concede fewer chances and carry the authority of a side still trying to pressure the top two.
But Waterford have something dangerous: momentum with emotion attached. The Regional Sports Centre should feel alive because supporters have been given a reason to believe again. Coughlan’s side are still flawed, and their average of two goals conceded per league match explains why they remain ninth. Yet they are no longer passive. They have found goals, personality and a bit of menace.
For St Patrick’s Athletic, the challenge is to avoid turning another away trip into a frustrating evening. Their clean sheets and attacking quality make them formidable, but their recent road form leaves just enough doubt to make this contest feel edgy. For Waterford, the task is to keep the game uncomfortable, protect the central spaces and feed Lonergan early enough to ask proper questions.
It has the ingredients of a match with tension at both ends of the table: one side fighting to climb out of danger, the other trying to stay close to the summit. No need to dress it up too much. Waterford are scrapping for oxygen, St Patrick’s Athletic are chasing altitude, and Friday night should tell us which side handles the pressure better.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This market requires both competing teams to find the back of the net at least once during standard regular time. It operates as a simple binary selection. Cautious analysts select this market when facing teams with prolific forward lines but structural defensive deficiencies, avoiding the volatility of predicting standard match outcomes. The main risk involves a highly defensive approach or an early red card altering the game-state.
Correct Score
A higher-risk mechanism requiring the exact prediction of the final scoreline at the final whistle. This delivers superior pricing but features massive volatility. Single incidents such as late random goals or defensive errors can destroy a selection in seconds. It suits structured situations where team performance baselines are clearly documented, allowing analytical parameters to isolate a narrow band of realistic scorelines.
🎯 Both Teams to Score Analysis
Waterford enter this fixture demonstrating significant attacking momentum under Graham Coughlan, having scored 11 goals in their last four league fixtures. Their recent performance away at Derry City highlighted a highly ruthless counter-attacking blueprint, scoring four goals from just five shots on target despite registering a low 30% possession share. With Tom Lonergan in excellent form after scoring successive braces, the home side possess the necessary firepower to penetrate a disciplined defence. However, Waterford continue to demonstrate vulnerability at the back, maintaining an average of two goals conceded per league match, which keeps them heavily entrenched in a relegation battle.
St Patrick’s Athletic bring a strong overall profile to the Regional Sports Centre, scoring 38 goals across their campaign. Stephen Kenny’s side average 16.41 attempts per match with 64% of their total shots generated from inside the opposition penalty area, demonstrating consistent territorial pressure. Despite their general defensive strength, the Saints have shown continuous frailty on the road, failing to win any of their last five away matches while conceding goals in defeats against rivals like Bohemians. Given the tactical setup where the visitors dominate possession while the hosts attack rapidly on the break, both defensive units will be subjected to intense pressure.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Waterford have generated 11 goals inside their most recent four fixtures.
- St Patrick’s Athletic maintain an elevated scoring metric with 38 goals this season.
- The visitors remain winless across their last five consecutive away matches.
Risk Factor: An early defensive lock by Stephen Kenny or a failure by Waterford to convert their limited opportunities on the counter-attack could cap the goal volume.
🎯 Correct Score 1-1 Rationale
Isolating the exact 1-1 scoreline relies heavily on the away trends demonstrated by St Patrick’s Athletic. The Saints have drawn three of their last five away fixtures, including score draws away at Derry City, Sligo Rovers, and Galway United. Stephen Kenny’s side average 54% possession and control tempo cleanly but frequently struggle to kill games off on travel, leading to stalemates. Defensively, they concede just 0.8 goals per match over their last ten games, indicating that while they are vulnerable on the road, they rarely fall apart structurally.
Waterford’s home atmosphere will amplify their energy, but their overall quality baseline makes a straight victory against the third-placed team difficult. Coughlan’s side complete only 60% of their passes, which will lead to long spells without the ball, preventing them from completely dominating the match. A 1-1 draw respects Waterford’s scoring surge and home energy while acknowledging the Saints’ superior technical metrics and their documented travel issues.
Waterford Goals (4 Games)
Saints Away Draws (Last 5)
Risk Factor: Late game-state changes, reckless challenges, or specialized set-piece delivery could easily push this into a 2-1 outcome for either side.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Scored four goals from 30% possession at Derry. Lethal when striking into open spaces left by high-pressing lines.
Winless in five away matches. Vulnerable to fast breaks when committing numbers forward on travel.
🙋 Frequently Asked Questions
⊕What does the Both Teams to Score market mean?
The Both Teams to Score market requires both teams to score a minimum of one goal during regular time to win. If the match finishes with both teams scoring, the selection is successful, regardless of the final outcome. It represents an excellent option when tracking high-scoring, defensively unstable sides.
⊕How does the Correct Score market function?
The Correct Score market requires specifying the exact scoreline at the conclusion of regular time. This market offers increased pricing due to its inherent difficulty and volatility. A single late goal completely changes the result, making it a high-risk selection for analytical purposes.
⊕Why is Both Teams to Score highly plausible for this match?
Both Teams to Score is highly plausible because Waterford have scored 11 goals in their last four matches while maintaining a high concession rate. Concurrently, St Patrick’s Athletic possess a robust scoring record of 38 goals this season but show regular defensive frailties during away fixtures.
⊕What specific stats point toward a 1-1 correct score draw?
St Patrick’s Athletic have drawn three of their last five away matches, pointing explicitly to a trend of traveling stalemates. Waterford’s strong goal surge combined with the Saints’ average of just 0.8 goals conceded over their last ten games makes a competitive 1-1 tie mathematically logical.
⊕Does this match take place in a cup or league format?
This match takes place within the League of Ireland Premier division, representing Gameweek 24 of the standard league season calendar. Points won impact the league table directly, influencing Waterford’s ongoing relegation fight and St Patrick’s Athletic’s pursuit of European qualification positions.
⊕How does possession affect the expected flow of the game?
St Patrick’s Athletic control matches through possession, averaging 54% compared to Waterford’s lower baseline of 39%. This ensures the Saints will dictate territorial location, while Waterford will look to deploy a low defensive block before executing rapid counter-attacks through Tom Lonergan.
⊕Who are the key players missing due to injury?
Waterford are missing Evan McLaughlin, who has been completely sidelined since May due to a persistent leg injury. St Patrick’s Athletic continue to play without Joseph Anang, meaning Daniel Rogers will manage goalkeeping duties for the visitors at the Regional Sports Centre.
⊕What is the head-to-head history between these teams?
St Patrick’s Athletic dominate the recent head-to-head record, winning four and drawing two of the last six listed Premier Division matches. They secured a 4-1 victory at Richmond Park in May and a 2-0 win on their last visit to Waterford in March.
Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT · Editorial Policy
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