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Can Blackpool’s right-sided counter punch disrupt Ipswich’s shot-heavy, half-pitch control at Portman Road? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Ipswich Town’s statistical dominance is evident in their 16 shots per game and 56.7% possession. They are facing a Blackpool side that concedes 1.44 goals per game and is particularly weak at defending set pieces and skillful attackers. With Ipswich strong at creating chances through individual skill and direct free kicks, they should find multiple breakthroughs. While Blackpool's counter-attacking threat may lead to a goal, the hosts' overall quality and Blackpool's poor historical record against higher-tier teams suggest a comfortable home win in a match with at least three goals.
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A 3-1 scoreline aligns with the tactical profiles of both clubs. Ipswich Town’s high attacking volume and Blackpool’s defensive weaknesses—specifically their struggle with fouls and set pieces—indicate multiple goals for the home side. Blackpool, however, average 1.44 goals scored per game and possess a strong counter-attacking identity focused on the right flank. Given that both teams are prone to individual errors, a clean sheet for the hosts is less likely than a victory where both sides contribute to the scoreline.
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Ipswich Town vs Blackpool Predictions and Best Bets
Ipswich vs Blackpool — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market probabilities and sample bet365 odds for this FA Cup tie.
Ipswich Town are heavily favored by the pricing as they face League One opposition at Portman Road.
Analysis suggests a higher-scoring encounter is likely given the gap in divisions and Ipswich’s attacking volume.
- Ipswich bring relentless pressure: 16 shots per game in the Championship plus 56.7% possession and 82.0% pass success, so opponents defend for long spells and face constant penalty-area traffic.
- Blackpool live for transitions, not control: 48.4% possession and 9.9 shots per game in League One, yet Ashley Fletcher still has 10 goals and four assists to turn limited supply into end product.
- The defensive gap is stark over listed match totals: Ipswich concede 0.96 per game (25 in 26), while Blackpool concede 1.44 per game (46 in 32), so resistance matters.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
A comparison of offensive output shows the disparity in pressure applied by both sides over the season.
With over 400 total shots recorded, Ipswich’s style is built around relentless pressure and high attempt counts.
Blackpool record fewer shots overall but focus on quality, with 69% of attempts coming from inside the penalty area.
Territorial Control: Average Possession
Ipswich aim to dominate the ball and pin opponents back, while Blackpool are more comfortable without it.
Combined with an 82% pass success rate, Ipswich use possession to control the tempo in the opposition half.
The visitors typically see less of the ball, relying on wide attacks and quick transitions rather than sustained build-up.
Portman Road hosts an FA Cup third-round tie on Saturday as Ipswich Town welcome Blackpool in a meeting between two previous winners of English football’s most historic club competition. The framing is straightforward: there are 39 places between them, the Championship side are pushing for promotion under Kieran McKenna, and the League One visitors arrive looking to turn the cup into a cold shower for the Tractor Boys.
There’s also a simple appeal to this fixture. Ipswich like to play on the front foot, keep the ball in the opposition’s half, and rack up shots. Blackpool are happiest with width, right-sided thrust and quick counter attacks. Put those identities into the same 90 minutes and you get a contest that can look calm for long spells… right up until it suddenly doesn’t.
With conditions listed at 3° at Portman Road, it has the feel of a proper January cup tie: bright lights, sharp touches, and the sort of moment that either makes a season’s scrapbook or ruins your weekend.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Ipswich’s possible starting XI is: Palmer; Young, Woolfenden, O’Shea, Davis; Humphreys, Cajuste; Burns, Nunez, Clarke; Akpom.
That reads like a familiar 4-2-3-1: a back four, a double pivot, three attacking midfielders supporting a centre-forward. The balance is clear. Davis gives width from left-back, while Young offers experience on the other side. Humphreys and Cajuste look like the platform to let Nunez run the central lanes, with Burns and Clarke providing the outside support and Akpom asked to finish moves.
Blackpool’s possible starting XI is: Peacock-Farrell; Casey, Horsfall, Lyons; Imray, Morgan, Honeyman, Ashworth; Bowler; Bloxham, Fletcher.
That points to a back three with wing-backs, a midfield pair, Bowler operating behind a front two. The selection screams for two things: protect the centre with numbers, then spring into the wide channels and let the forwards attack the box.
The key tactical question from the team sheets is where the game is played. Ipswich are built to pin teams back and play in the opposition’s half. Blackpool are comfortable playing in their own half and waiting for the moment to break. One side wants territory; the other wants space.
How the Match Could Be Played
Ipswich play possession football with short passes, they control the game in the opposition’s half, and they attack through the middle while attempting through balls often. That combination creates a very specific type of pressure. It’s not just keeping the ball for its own sake; it’s moving it quickly enough to drag defenders around and then slipping the decisive pass into the pocket behind the midfield line.
That matters because Blackpool have a glaring issue stopping opponents from creating chances, and they struggle badly defending against skilful players. Ipswich are strong creating chances through individual skill and strong creating scoring chances. Over 90 minutes, that becomes a test of nerve and organisation for the visitors: can they keep their shape intact when Ipswich start rotating positions in the half-spaces?
Ipswich also carry a strong counter-attacking threat of their own, which is not always talked about with possession-heavy teams but is very much part of their identity. If Blackpool push their wing-backs on and lose the ball in midfield, Ipswich can go straight through the middle and into the channels. The first pass after the regain becomes dangerous immediately.
Blackpool, though, don’t travel to be decorative. They are very strong on the counter attack, they play with width, and they attack down the right. That right-sided focus brings a clear duel into the spotlight: Ipswich’s left flank, where Davis will want to advance and support attacks, against Blackpool’s right-sided forward thrust. If Blackpool can win the ball and immediately release down that side, they force Ipswich into long recovery runs and quick defensive decisions.
The attacking shape Blackpool are likely to show on breaks is straightforward: early ball wide, delivery into the box, and bodies arriving. Fletcher is central to that plan. He has 10 League One goals and four assists, and he is also one of Blackpool’s best aerial contributors at 3.1 aerials won per game. In a team that likes to get it wide and cross, that profile matters.
Ipswich’s defensive strengths change the picture at set pieces and in game management. They are strong defending set pieces and strong protecting the lead. That means Blackpool can’t rely on one well-worked corner to tilt the tie; they need to hurt Ipswich in open play as well, particularly through transition moments and wide delivery.
At the other end, Blackpool are very weak defending set pieces and very weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Against an Ipswich side that are very strong shooting from direct free kicks, that is playing with fire. Give away cheap free kicks around the box and you invite trouble. Concede corners and free kicks repeatedly and you turn the match into a siege where the next delivery keeps landing in uncomfortable places.
Both teams also share an ugly trait: avoiding individual errors is a weakness for Ipswich and for Blackpool. That means the match can swing on a single lapse even if one side has controlled most of the football. A sloppy pass out, a mistimed step, a moment of indecision — and the game changes shape instantly.
There’s also the offside theme. Ipswich are weak avoiding offside, and Blackpool are weak avoiding offside too. That becomes relevant if Blackpool hold a deeper line and then step up late, or if Ipswich’s through-ball game asks runners to live right on the shoulder. Timing in the final third becomes a constant mini-battle: half a second early, flag up; half a second late, the chance is gone.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Ipswich’s Championship numbers back up the idea of sustained pressure. They average 16 shots per game across 25 matches, with 56.7% possession and an 82.0% pass success rate. That means Ipswich spend long stretches on the ball and turn that control into a steady stream of attempts. It also means Blackpool’s defensive block will be asked to defend repeatedly rather than simply survive one or two big moments.
Blackpool’s League One profile is almost the opposite. They average 9.9 shots per game across 25 matches, with 48.4% possession and 73.4% pass success. That means they’re not built to win this tie through endless build-up. They are built to be efficient, to break quickly, and to make their chances count when they arrive.
The broader match record numbers underline two different defensive realities. Ipswich have conceded 25 goals in 26 played games, an average of 0.96 conceded per game, while scoring 43 at 1.65 per game. That means Ipswich keep games under control and still find goals. Blackpool’s 32 played games show 46 scored and 46 conceded, both at 1.44 per game. That means Blackpool live in matches where they give opponents chances as well as creating their own, which becomes a risky lifestyle against a side that creates scoring chances well.
Shot profiles also point to how the pressure might look. Ipswich are at 15.92 shots per game from 414 total shots, with 64% of their attempts coming inside the box. Blackpool sit at 10.75 shots per game from 344 total shots, with 69% inside the box. Ipswich bring volume; Blackpool bring a preference for getting closer to goal before they pull the trigger.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big swing factor is set pieces and free kicks. Ipswich are very strong shooting from direct free kicks and strong defending set pieces. Blackpool are very weak defending set pieces and very weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. That combination turns every cheap foul and every corner into a moment of tension for the away side, and it gives Ipswich a reliable route to apply pressure even if open play gets crowded.
The second moment lives on Blackpool’s right. Their style leans into attacking down the right and playing with width, and they are very strong on the counter. If Ipswich commit bodies into the opposition half and lose the ball, the first pass into that right channel becomes a sprint duel with the whole match chasing.
The third moment is the individual battle in the pockets. Ipswich are strong creating chances through individual skill, while Blackpool are very weak defending against skilful players. If Clarke and Nunez find space between the lines and start turning, Blackpool’s back line gets dragged into awkward decisions: step out and risk the ball in behind, or sit off and let Ipswich pick their pass.
What could go wrong with this read? The cup doesn’t care about who had the ball. Both sides make individual errors, and both sides struggle with offside timing. That creates volatility: a soft turnover, a misplaced step, a marginal run, and the tie becomes a different game in a heartbeat.
Best Bet for Ipswich Town vs Blackpool
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Ipswich Town to win and Over 2.5 goals
Rationale
Ipswich Town enter this tie as a side defined by high-volume attacking and territorial dominance. They average 16 shots per game and maintain 56.7% possession, a statistical profile that forces opponents into sustained periods of defensive organization. At Portman Road, this pressure is amplified by their ability to control the game in the opposition’s half and use short, intricate passing to create high-quality scoring chances. Specifically, Ipswich are strong at creating chances through individual skill, which directly exploits a major defensive vulnerability for Blackpool, who are very weak at defending against skillful players.
The discrepancy in defensive records further justifies a high-scoring home win. Ipswich concede just 0.96 goals per game while scoring 1.65, whereas Blackpool’s matches are far more volatile, with the Seasiders scoring and conceding at an identical rate of 1.44 per game. This defensive leakiness for the visitors is particularly dangerous given Ipswich’s proficiency at shooting from direct free kicks. Blackpool are very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas and struggle significantly with defending set pieces. Every corner or free kick conceded by the visitors becomes a high-probability scoring opportunity for a side as technically gifted as Kieran McKenna’s.
While Blackpool possess a clear threat on the counter-attack—led by Ashley Fletcher, who has ten league goals—their reliance on right-sided thrust often leaves gaps that a side like Ipswich can exploit. Ipswich themselves carry a potent counter-attacking threat, and with Blackpool prone to individual errors, the transition moments are likely to go in favor of the higher-tier side. Given that Blackpool have been eliminated in 17 of their last 20 FA Cup ties against sides from a higher division, the combination of Ipswich’s clinical attacking and Blackpool’s defensive frailties points toward a victory for the hosts in a match that clears the total goals threshold.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection involves the shared tendency of both teams to commit individual errors. If Ipswich suffer a lapse in concentration early, Blackpool’s counter-attacking efficiency and Fletcher’s aerial strength could allow them to sit deep and protect a lead. Additionally, both teams are weak at avoiding offside, meaning a high-scoring game could be suppressed by several goals being chalked off by the assistant referee.
Correct score lean: 3–1
The 3–1 scoreline reflects Ipswich’s offensive volume and Blackpool’s defensive inconsistencies. Ipswich average nearly 16 shots per game and are strong at converting individual skill into goals, suggesting they will find the net multiple times. However, Blackpool’s proficiency on the break and Fletcher’s 3.1 aerials won per game suggest they can snatch a goal, particularly as Ipswich are not immune to individual defensive errors.
Correct score rationale
Ipswich Town have a clear technical advantage, averaging over 1.6 goals per game this season and creating scoring chances at a high rate. Their ability to pin teams back ensures they will have numerous sights of goal, particularly through set pieces where Blackpool are statistically very weak. Conversely, Blackpool’s identity is built on quick transitions and right-sided attacks, which are designed to catch possession-heavy teams like Ipswich off-guard. While the hosts should dominate the scoreboard, Blackpool’s scoring record of 1.44 goals per game suggests they are capable of contributing to the total, resulting in a 3–1 victory for the Championship side.
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