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Can Boreham Wood’s Meadow Park momentum withstand Burton’s shot-heavy, long-ball-and-cross approach in the FA Cup? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Boreham Wood's relentless scoring record of 2.14 goals per game and strong home form make them a serious threat. Burton's defensive weaknesses, particularly against set pieces and counters, could be their downfall at Meadow Park.
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This scoreline reflects Boreham Wood's habit of scoring twice at home while acknowledging that Burton's shot volume often leads to at least one goal despite their finishing struggles.
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Boreham Wood vs Burton Albion Predictions and Best Bets
Boreham Wood vs Burton Albion — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Boreham Wood are narrow favorites as the home non-league side with high momentum against struggling League One opposition.
Based on Boreham Wood’s high goal output and Burton’s defensive fragility, a competitive home win is among the most likely scripts.
The hosts’ average of 2.14 goals per game suggests a high-scoring potential, supported by Burton’s tendency to concede away from home.
- Boreham Wood’s goal output is relentless: 60 scored in 28 games overall (2.14 per game) and 48 in 24 National League Premier matches, so they start games expecting to score.
- Burton’s overall balance is uncomfortable: 36 scored and 41 conceded across 31 games (1.16 scored, 1.32 conceded per match), so leads and game control keep slipping away.
- The shot profiles set the tone: Boreham Wood average 13.14 shots per game with 69% inside the box, while Burton average 11.48 shots with 64% inside the box.
Scoring Reliability: Average Goals Scored
Boreham Wood enter this tie with a prolific scoring habit compared to the League One visitors.
With 60 goals across 28 matches, the hosts have established a consistent threat regardless of the level of opposition.
Burton’s output is significantly lower, often requiring defensive perfection to secure results.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
The frequency of shots suggests which side is more likely to sustain pressure in the final third.
69% of these attempts come from inside the box, highlighting a preference for high-quality scoring chances.
While active, Burton’s lower volume is paired with a weakness in finishing created chances.
Meadow Park stages a classic FA Cup third-round collision on Saturday as fifth-tier Boreham Wood welcome League One visitors Burton Albion. The hosts have already negotiated two home ties to reach this point, while the Brewers have come through two FA Cup ties against non-league opposition of their own. It’s a meeting that cuts straight to what this round does best: a non-league side with momentum and a familiar setting, against an EFL team arriving with the expectation of control and the risk of being dragged into a game they don’t like.
Boreham Wood’s recent run adds to the sense of occasion. They have gone five unbeaten across their last six in all listed competitions, including emphatic away scoring at Wealdstone and a tight home win over Solihull Moors. Burton’s recent sequence is harsher, with three defeats in their last four League One matches, including away losses at Reading and Plymouth. Cup football doesn’t hand out sympathy, though. It hands out problems. And Boreham Wood at Meadow Park are very good at giving teams problems.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Boreham Wood’s possible starting XI is: Curd; Coxe, Reynolds, Bush, Newton; O’Connell, Booty; Richardson, Brunt, Abdulmalik; Rush. On the face of it, that reads like a back four with two central midfielders, three attacking midfielders behind a central forward. The spine is sturdy and experienced in key areas: Reynolds and Bush sit at the heart of the defence, while Brunt and Abdulmalik give the attack shape and purpose. Rush leads the line with a scoring record that jumps off the page in this squad list: 14 goals.
There is also a clear complication. Booty is listed with a yellow card suspension, and Newton is also listed with a yellow card suspension. Both appear in the possible starting lineup. That uncertainty matters because those positions sit right in the middle of how Boreham Wood want to build and protect: Booty as a midfield screen option, Newton as a defensive piece in a back line that will be tested by movement, crosses and second balls.
Burton Albion’s possible starting XI is: Collins; Sibbick, Vancooten, Akoto; Lofthouse, Evans, Chauke, Williams; Larsson, Tavares; Beesley. That shape looks like a back three, wing-backs, two central midfielders, and a front three that can rotate. It mirrors their listed formation pattern as well: Burton have used a 3-4-1-2 in League One, and this XI has the ingredients for that kind of structure, even if the exact roles are flexible.
Beesley is the obvious focal point. He has seven League One goals and four assists, and he wins 6.6 aerial duels per game, which is a massive indicator of how Burton can go direct when the pitch and the game demand it. Around him, Shade is Burton’s next big scorer in the League One list with five, and Webster has four goals and three assists from midfield. This isn’t a side without ways to hurt you. It’s a side that too often wastes the moments it creates.
How the Match Could Be Played
Boreham Wood come into this tie with the most basic advantage in cup football: they already know exactly what the day feels like. They’ve won home ties in this competition this season, they’ve kept clean sheets in their most recent FA Cup matches, and they’re comfortable making Meadow Park a small, awkward place for visitors. Their recent matches underline that confidence: a 2–0 home win over Carlisle, a 4–0 away win at Wealdstone, and a 2–1 home win over Solihull Moors. It’s a run built on goals and control of key moments.
Burton, meanwhile, carry a playing identity that can either dominate a tie like this or get them into trouble. They take a lot of shots, they attempt crosses often, they attempt through balls often, and they use long balls as a consistent route. They also try to control the game in the opposition’s half. That’s an aggressive territorial idea on paper, even if their style is listed as non-aggressive. The best version of that plan pins Boreham Wood back, keeps the ball in the final third, and forces a stream of clearances and set pieces.
The problem for Burton is that their weaknesses line up in exactly the areas where cup ties get decided. They are weak finishing scoring chances, weak defending counter attacks, weak protecting the lead, and very weak defending set pieces and defending against long shots. Those are not theoretical issues. They are the match’s pressure points.
Against a non-league side that score freely — Boreham Wood have 48 goals in 24 National League Premier matches — you don’t get infinite second chances. Give away a cheap corner, lose a runner on a restart, or allow a shot from range, and you hand momentum to a side that has been living off momentum for weeks.
Boreham Wood’s likely approach is not complicated, and it doesn’t need to be. If Burton want to play in Boreham Wood’s half, Boreham Wood can defend, clear, and break into space. The front four in their listed XI offers a clear transition threat: Richardson’s pace and directness, Brunt’s goal output of six, Abdulmalik’s eight goals, and Rush as the finisher. If Burton’s back three step out to compete for long balls, the spaces either side of them become available for quick runners. If Burton’s wing-backs push on, the channels behind them become the obvious release valve.
Burton’s best route to control is to make the match a constant supply line into the box and around it. Beesley winning aerials brings others into play, and Burton do have players who can arrive and finish when patterns work. Tavares has two goals and an assist. Webster arrives from midfield with genuine goal threat. Lofthouse contributes four assists. If Burton can get the ball wide and deliver early, they can force Boreham Wood’s back line into repeated decision-making — and that is where slips happen.
But repeated deliveries also bring repeated set pieces, and Burton are very weak defending set pieces. That means any sustained spell of Burton pressure can still boomerang back at them. A blocked cross becomes a corner. A half-clearance becomes another delivery. A moment of panic becomes a foul. Those moments are oxygen for Boreham Wood in this kind of tie.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Boreham Wood’s scoring profile is relentless. They have 48 goals in 24 National League Premier matches, and 51 goals across 25 matches in the listed competitions. That is not a side waiting for one lucky break. That is a side producing goals as a habit, which changes the entire emotional shape of the tie. Even if Burton control spells, Boreham Wood carry the belief that the next transition can turn into a chance.
The broader match totals reinforce that point. Across 28 played games in the listed overall section, Boreham Wood have scored 60 and conceded 25, which works out at 2.14 goals scored per game and 0.89 conceded per game. They score early enough and often enough to set the tone, and they defend well enough to keep the game within their preferred script.
Burton’s overall numbers point to a very different reality. Across 31 played games, they have scored 36 and conceded 41, which works out at 1.16 scored per game and 1.32 conceded per game. That means Burton spend a lot of time needing a second goal because they don’t shut matches down cleanly. It also means Boreham Wood will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet even if Burton have more of the ball.
Shot volume also sharpens the picture. Boreham Wood average 13.14 shots per game from 368 total shots, with 69% of attempts coming from inside the box. Burton average 11.48 shots per game from 356 total shots, with 64% inside the box. Boreham Wood get shots off frequently and close to goal. Burton shoot plenty too, but their finishing weakness drags the sting out of those sequences.
Possession and passing show how different the texture might feel. Boreham Wood’s overall section lists 55% ball possession and 80% pass accuracy, while Burton sit at 47% possession and 70% pass accuracy in the same overall breakdown. That means Boreham Wood can have spells of calm control, not just chaos and counters — a critical detail in a cup tie where the home side can’t afford to spend ninety minutes purely reacting.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is set pieces at both ends. Burton are very weak defending set pieces, so every corner and wide free kick into their box becomes a stress test. Boreham Wood’s goals are spread across the squad, and they have plenty of bodies who can arrive on deliveries. Burton have the aerial presence to attack set plays too, but their vulnerability defending them is the more glaring feature of this match-up.
The second moment is what happens immediately after Burton lose the ball. Burton are weak defending counter attacks, and Boreham Wood have the runners to punish that. One clearance, one second ball, one forward pass into space, and suddenly Burton’s back line is turning rather than stepping.
The third moment is the finishing duel. Burton create scoring chances strongly, but they are weak finishing scoring chances. That means their best spell of the match can end with nothing on the board. Boreham Wood, by contrast, have a side packed with players who have already produced goals at scale: Rush with 14, Abdulmalik with eight, Brunt with six, Sousa with five, Richardson with five, Norris with four. If the tie becomes a battle of taking the big chance, that catalogue matters.
What could go wrong with this read? Fine margins. Burton’s shot volume and crossing game can trap Boreham Wood deep for long spells, and a single early goal changes the emotional temperature of the afternoon. Boreham Wood also carry suspensions that create uncertainty in their likely XI, and a forced reshuffle in defensive areas can disrupt timing and communication.
Best Bet for Boreham Wood vs Burton Albion
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Boreham Wood to Win
Boreham Wood enter this fixture as a side that knows exactly how to win matches in this competition. They have already secured home victories in the earlier rounds, including a 2–0 win over Carlisle and a 2–1 success against Solihull Moors. Their scoring record is relentless; they have netted 48 goals in 24 National League Premier matches and 60 goals across 28 total games in all listed competitions. This averages out to 2.14 goals scored per game, a figure that dwarfs Burton’s average of 1.16.
Burton arrive with a brittle defensive record, having conceded 41 goals in 31 games. They are notably very weak at defending set pieces and defending against long shots, which are areas where Boreham Wood excel. The hosts produce 13.14 shots per game, with 69% of those attempts coming from inside the box. This clinical nature in the final third poses a massive threat to a Burton side that is weak at protecting a lead and weak at finishing their own scoring chances.
Furthermore, Burton’s away form has been a major concern, highlighted by recent losses at Reading and Plymouth. While Burton will look to use the aerial presence of Beesley, who wins 6.6 aerial duels per game, Boreham Wood’s defensive spine of Reynolds and Bush is built to withstand such pressure. Given that Boreham Wood also maintain 55% ball possession and an 80% pass accuracy, they are capable of controlling the tempo and frustrating their League One opponents. The combination of Boreham Wood’s scoring consistency and Burton’s defensive vulnerabilities makes a home victory the most logical outcome.
What could go wrong?
The fine margins of cup football always present a risk, especially if Burton’s high shot volume and crossing game manage to pin Boreham Wood deep for sustained periods. An early goal for the visitors would significantly alter the emotional temperature of the match. Additionally, Boreham Wood face uncertainty due to the potential suspensions of Booty and Newton, which could disrupt the defensive timing and communication of their starting XI.
Correct score lean: 2–1
A 2–1 victory for Boreham Wood aligns with the statistical trends of both teams. Boreham Wood average over two goals per game and have already recorded a 2–1 home win in their recent sequence. Burton, while struggling, do create chances and average over a goal per game, meaning they are likely to find the net at least once, especially through Beesley or Webster. However, Burton’s very weak set-piece defense and inability to shut matches down cleanly suggest they will concede twice to a clinical Boreham Wood attack.
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