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Olimpico pressure-cooker: can Roma’s perfect Europa away form finally translate at home against Stuttgart’s shot-hungry press? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale▾
Roma and Stuttgart are both in elite scoring form, averaging 1.67 and 2.0 goals per game respectively. Stuttgart’s eight-game away scoring streak and Roma’s consistent home output at the Olimpico make goals at both ends virtually certain in this high-stakes tie.
Read Rationale▾
Roma’s superior European experience and home advantage give them the edge. Stuttgart are resilient but often concede, and Roma’s three-match winning streak in the competition suggests they have the momentum to secure a narrow 2-1 victory at the Olimpico.
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Roma vs Stuttgart Predictions and Best Bets
Roma vs Stuttgart — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Roma’s home advantage at the Olimpico gives them the edge, though Stuttgart’s record suggests they remain competitive away from home.
Prices point towards a narrow home win or a tactical stalemate as the most realistic outcomes at the Olimpico.
Scoring trends for both sides suggest a contest that could open up, with implied probabilities favouring both teams contributing.
- Bold away brilliance, home doubts: Roma have taken nine of their 12 Europa League points away from home with a 100% away record, but have lost at the Olimpico in this league phase to Lille (1-0) and Viktoria Plzen (2-1).
- Shot volume clash: Stuttgart are firing 18.0 shots per game in the Europa League to Roma’s 15.2, and they’ve scored 12 goals to Roma’s 10 after six league-phase matches.
- Two very different recent rhythms: Stuttgart are unbeaten in their last six across all competitions (W4 D2 L0), while Roma have won four of their last six (W4 L2) — and both arrive with momentum and a sting in the tail.
Attacking Consistency: Matches Scored In
Both clubs have displayed a high frequency of finding the net throughout their respective European and domestic campaigns.
Roma are priced as strong favourites to score at least once in each half given their 8/11 implied probability.
Stuttgart’s attacking setup frequently generates high shot volumes, supporting a 28/1 market for scoring 3+ goals.
Match Discipline: Booking & Foul Frequency
Disciplinary stats provide a view of the defensive aggression levels expected in this Europa League fixture.
Defensive pillars like Gianluca Mancini are regularly involved in high-foul match scenarios.
Stuttgart’s pressing style can lead to increased bookings, as seen in the 25/1+ market segment for card counts.
There’s no hiding from it at the Stadio Olimpico: this is a table-shifter. Roma and Stuttgart go into Thursday night level on 12 points, sitting 10th and ninth in the 36-team league phase — close enough to dream, close enough to panic. The top eight is right there: Braga in seventh and Porto in eighth have 13, while the leading pack are only a short sprint ahead on 14 and 15.
Roma have all but secured a play-off place, but that’s not the point. Gian Piero Gasperini has a side that can climb — and needs to. The snag? The Olimpico hasn’t been a guaranteed comfort blanket, and Stuttgart arrive with a slick, high-volume attack under Sebastian Hoeneß that doesn’t do quiet nights.
Team News & Lineups
Roma absences
- Lorenzo Pellegrini – unknown injury
- Stephan El Shaarawy – Achilles tendon irritation
- Leon Bailey – unknown injury
Stuttgart absences
- J. Esmoris Tasende – unknown injury
Roma possible starting XI
Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi; Rensch, Cristante, Koné, Wesley; Pellegrini, Dybala; Ferguson
Stuttgart possible starting XI
Nübel; Assignon, Hendriks, Chabot, Mittelstädt; Karazor, Andres; Leweling, Undav, Führich; Demirovic
What it means
Roma’s shape screams wing-back width and central craft through Dybala, but the uncertainty around Pellegrini matters: it risks dulling their connective play between midfield and the forwards. Stuttgart’s XI looks built for line-breaking — Undav and Demirovic with runners either side, plus Mittelstädt offering output from deep.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Europa League) | Roma | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| League-phase position | 10th | 9th |
| Points (GP) | 12 (6) | 12 (6) |
| Goals scored | 10 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 5 |
| Shots per game | 15.2 | 18.0 |
| Possession | 55.0% | 61.6% |
| Pass accuracy | 83.7% | 86.9% |
| Aerials won | 16.3 | 17.5 |
Roma’s numbers point to a team that can control and hurt you, but Stuttgart’s profile is louder: more possession, sharper passing, heavier shooting. Yet both have conceded only five in six games — which hints at a match where territory is won in bursts, and the first big swing moment could decide the mood.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
When Roma have the ball
Roma want to live in the opposition half. Their style leans into possession football, short passes, and a clear preference for attacking down the right. That sets up a simple question: can Stuttgart stop Roma building rhythm without opening the door to a killer ball into the inside channels for Paulo Dybala?
Roma’s biggest red flag is not subtle: they are very weak defending counter attacks. That’s the risk tax that comes with pushing wing-backs on and holding territory. If Roma commit bodies high and lose the first duel, the pitch can suddenly look huge.
There’s a second layer too. Roma are strong defending set pieces and very strong protecting a lead. If they score first, expect them to turn the game into something spiky: slower restarts, controlled possession, and spells where Stuttgart chase shadows and get frustrated into forced passes.
When Stuttgart have the ball
Stuttgart also want the ball — and they want it with intent. Their style is possession football with short passes, but crucially they attempt through balls often and attack through the middle. That’s a direct challenge to Roma’s structure: it asks Roma’s midfield screen to be perfect, and it asks the back line to defend while facing its own goal.
Look at the shot output: Stuttgart are taking 18 per game in the Europa League and have been scoring 2.00 on average in their most recent Europa League matches. They don’t wait for a perfect chance. They manufacture pressure until the box gets crowded and something breaks — a loose clearance, a deflection, a second ball.
But Stuttgart carry their own soft spot: they are weak defending counter attacks and weak stopping opponents from creating chances. That makes Roma’s transitional moments massive. If Roma can bait Stuttgart into over-committing, then one clean release into Dybala or an early ball into Evan Ferguson can flip the script in seconds.
The key duels
- Dybala drifting between the lines vs Stuttgart’s central screen: give him time, and the Olimpico starts to hum.
- Deniz Undav as the attacking hub: Stuttgart’s best rating group includes Undav (7.09) and he’s producing at volume, with 10 goals in the Bundesliga list.
- Wide delivery and second balls: both sides rank strong in creating long shot opportunities, so expect plenty of edge-of-box moments if clear openings don’t arrive.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal timing: Roma’s average first goal time sits at 38′, Stuttgart’s at 50′ — a hint that Roma may try to punch early, while Stuttgart keep building until the second half.
- Set pieces vs counter danger: Roma are strong defending set pieces, Stuttgart are strong defending set pieces — so the second phase matters more than the initial delivery. Who reacts faster to the loose ball?
- Discipline and momentum swings: Roma average 2.00 yellow cards per game (56 total), Stuttgart 2.11 (57 total). With both teams prone to opponents playing aggressively against them, the match could turn on a messy five-minute spell.
What could go wrong?
For Roma, the nightmare is obvious: dominate the ball, lose it once in midfield, and get punished in transition — exactly where they’re at their weakest. For Stuttgart, it’s the opposite: commit to that central, through-ball approach, get picked off, and suddenly you’re sprinting back into your own box while Roma’s right-sided attacks flood the area.
Best Bet for Roma vs Stuttgart
Can Roma’s European experience and home advantage at the Olimpico overcome the momentum of a free-scoring Stuttgart side?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Current Form | Roma 3 wins in a row; Stuttgart 3 wins in a row | Back BTTS |
| Attack | Stuttgart 2.0 gls/gm; Roma 1.67 gls/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defence | Roma concede 0.84/gm; Stuttgart 0.84/gm | Both Teams to Score |
| History | 1st ever meeting between sides | Back Home Win |
Best Bet for Roma vs Stuttgart
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The tactical outlook for this Matchday 7 fixture suggests a high-scoring encounter at the Stadio Olimpico. Both Roma and Stuttgart enter this clash in peak Europa League form, each recording three consecutive victories in the competition. This momentum is driven by consistent attacking output; Stuttgart average 2.0 goals per game in the Europa League, while Roma maintain a healthy scoring rate of 1.67 goals per match.
Roma’s identity under Gian Piero Gasperini revolves around high-tempo transitions and creating overloads, which has seen them score in four consecutive home games. However, their goal difference of 10:5 in the competition reflects occasional defensive lapses. Stuttgart mirrors this record with a 12:5 goal difference, highlighting a superior ability to convert chances but a similar vulnerability at the back. The German side has scored in eight consecutive away games across all competitions, demonstrating they do not shrink on their travels.
Stuttgart’s shot volume is a key driver for this selection. They generated significant chances in recent wins over Feyenoord and Go Ahead Eagles, and their high-event domestic results—such as the recent 3-2 victory over Frankfurt—suggest they are comfortable in shootout scenarios. Roma, buoyed by the Olimpico crowd, will look to dictate the pace, but Stuttgart’s resilience means they are likely to find the net. With both teams level on 12 points and pushing for a direct spot in the last 16, neither side can afford a conservative approach, ensuring an open game state.
What could go wrong?
A highly tactical stalemate could occur if Gasperini opts for a more cautious defensive setup to preserve Roma’s home unbeaten run. Additionally, if Stuttgart’s finishing regresses against Roma’s experienced backline, the goal count may stay below the 2.5 threshold.
Correct Score Lean
Roma 2-1 Stuttgart
Roma’s formidable record at the Olimpico is the deciding factor in this first-ever meeting. While Stuttgart possess the scoring consistency to breach the Roma defense, the Italians have a deeper reservoir of European experience and have won three of their last five home matches. Roma’s 2-0 victory over Torino last weekend serves as proof of their current momentum. A 2-1 result acknowledges Stuttgart’s attacking threat while respecting Roma’s superior home efficiency and the tactical edge provided by Gasperini in high-stakes European nights.
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