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Can Dinamo Zagreb stop the Europa League slide before FCSB crash the top-24 party at Maksimir? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Dinamo Zagreb have conceded 10 goals in their last three European outings, while both sides have shipped a combined 24 goals in this phase. With Dinamo’s 100% rate of conceding and FCSB’s clinical counter-attacking threat, a high-scoring exchange at Maksimir is the only logical outcome.
Read Rationale ▾
Dinamo Zagreb maintain technical control through 86% pass accuracy and over 50% possession. While their defense is porous, their superior team rating and domestic strength suggest they will outlast an FCSB side that historically struggles with ball retention (43.8%) on the road in European competition.
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Dinamo Zagreb vs FCSB Predictions and Best Bets
Dinamo Zagreb vs FCSB — William Hill Market Snapshot
Market snapshot based on recent European defensive metrics and match analysis.
- Defence in the red: Dinamo Zagreb have shipped 13 goals in six Europa League games and conceded 10 in their last three in this phase alone.
- Momentum vs rust: Dinamo’s League Phase started with seven points from games against Fenerbahce, Maccabi Tel-Aviv and Malmo, but they’ve since lost three straight.
- Open games, hard lessons: FCSB have conceded 11 in six Europa League matches, while Dinamo’s last three in the competition have all gone over 2.5 goals.
Defensive Leaks: Goals Conceded Comparison
Both sides have struggled to contain opposition in the Europa League, leading to high-scoring outcomes in their recent fixtures.
10 of these goals were conceded in the last 3 matches alone, highlighting a severe dip in defensive structure.
The visitors struggle with high volumes of shots against them, resulting in frequent breaches of their back four.
Technical Reliability: Pass Accuracy
Success in ball retention suggests which team is better equipped to control the tempo at Stadion Maksimir.
Superior passing metrics indicate a side capable of building play through midfield linkage.
Lower accuracy points to a higher frequency of turnovers, inviting pressure from technical opponents.
This one has edge because both sides need it. Dinamo Zagreb and FCSB come into Thursday’s Europa League fixture sitting 25th and 27th, and with two matches left there’s barely any daylight between the chasing pack — just three points separating 18th and 28th. Win here and the top 24 comes into view. Slip, and the last two games start to feel like a rescue mission.
Dinamo’s mood is complicated: they’re one point clear at the top domestically, but Europe has bitten hard lately — three straight defeats and goals flying in at the wrong end. FCSB arrive with their own wobble, but they’ve shown they can make chaos stick. Kick-off is 20:00 at Stadion Maksimir, with the pitch set around 2°.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / Absences
- Dinamo Zagreb: R. Torrente Navarro (cruciate ligament tear, out until 05.02.2026)
- Dinamo Zagreb: I. Bennacer (hamstring strain)
- Dinamo Zagreb: Sandro Kulenovic (yellow card suspension, until 26.01.2026)
- FCSB: No absences listed
Probable Lineups
Dinamo Zagreb:
Filipovic; Galesic, Dominguez, McKenna, Perez Vinlof; Ljubicic, Misic, Zajc; Topic, Beljo, Hoxha
FCSB:
Tarvovanu; Cretu, Lixandru, Dawa, Pantea; Chiriches, Tanase; Cisotti, Olaru, Toma;
What it means: Dinamo lose a forward option with Kulenovic suspended, putting extra weight on Dion Beljo up top. For FCSB, the missing final name in the listed XI leaves one attacking slot unclear — but the shape still reads like a compact block with runners breaking from midfield.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dinamo Zagreb (Europa League) | FCSB (Europa League) |
|---|---|---|
| League Phase position | 25th | 27th |
| Points | 7 | 6 |
| Record | 2W-1D-3L | 2W-0D-4L |
| Goals (scored / conceded) | 8 / 13 | 7 / 11 |
| Shots per game | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| Possession | 50.4% | 43.8% |
| Pass accuracy | 86.0% | 78.5% |
| Team rating | 6.43 | 6.59 |
Dinamo look like the side more likely to have the ball — higher possession and cleaner passing — but that hasn’t protected them when games break open. FCSB’s lower possession hints at a more reactive plan, and with Dinamo conceding heavily lately, the away side won’t mind a messy match with turnovers and quick attacks.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Dinamo Zagreb: possession is fine — protecting it is the real job
Dinamo’s numbers suggest control: 50.4% possession and an 86.0% pass success rate in the Europa League. That’s a side capable of building play and moving opponents around.
The issue is what happens when the ball turns over. Their last three Europa League defeats came with 10 goals conceded, and they’ve been beaten by 2+ goals in each of those matches. That points to a team getting stretched: full-backs high, midfield asked to cover too much ground, centre-backs left defending space rather than bodies.
The likely route is quick combinations into the front three, with Miha Zajc linking and Arbër Hoxha driving from the left. The most direct threat is Dion Beljo — 2 goals and 1 assist in the competition — and without Sandro Kulenovic, Dinamo need Beljo to hold the ball up and keep attacks alive when the first wave breaks down.
FCSB: less ball, more bite — and a clear invitation to counter
FCSB’s Europa League profile is blunt: 43.8% possession, 78.5% passing, and 11 goals conceded. They’re not arriving to dominate territory for long spells. They’re arriving to scrap, break, and try to turn moments into goals.
There’s creativity in the middle, though. Juri Cisotti has 2 assists, while Darius Olaru and Florin Tanase both have 1 goal each in the competition. If Dinamo commit numbers forward, those are the players who can turn a loose clearance into a quick strike.
The big mismatch is the risk Dinamo carry versus the type of match FCSB are happy to play. Dinamo have already been burned by teams who punished transition moments. FCSB will look at that and fancy their chances to nick the ball and go straight down the pitch.
Where it could swing: calm heads in chaotic phases
Both sides concede plenty at this level — Dinamo 13, FCSB 11 — so the winner may not be the “better” side, but the one that manages the wild spells. Dinamo need cleaner rest-defence when attacks break down. FCSB need to survive the early pressure and avoid gifting cheap openings.
Key Moments to Watch
- First-half tone: Dinamo’s Europa League trend is brutal — three consecutive HT/FT defeats in the competition. They need a start with control and discipline, not panic.
- Set pieces and second balls: FCSB have strong individual aerial numbers like Denis Alibec (3 aerials won), while Dinamo’s best is Scott McKenna (2.5) — those scraps can decide tight phases.
- Discipline under stress: Dinamo average 1.88 yellow cards per game across their season totals, FCSB 2.05, and both have red cards on the record (3 for Dinamo, 6 for FCSB). If this gets ragged, one decision can flip everything.
What could go wrong? Dinamo can dominate possession and still get punished if they give the ball away in bad areas — that’s been the story of their recent Europa League run. For FCSB, the danger is obvious: if they sit too deep and defend too many crosses and cut-backs, the pressure eventually turns into a moment Beljo finishes.
Best Bet for Dinamo Zagreb vs FCSB
Can Dinamo Zagreb stop the Europa League slide before FCSB crash the top-24 party at Maksimir?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defense | ZAG: 13 goals conceded; FCSB: 11 conceded | Back BTTS |
| Form | ZAG: 10 conceded in last 3 EL games | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Trend | ZAG: 100% of EL games without clean sheet | Over 0.5 Away Gls |
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The defensive records of both Dinamo Zagreb and FCSB make a high-scoring encounter at Stadion Maksimir an absolute certainty. Dinamo Zagreb have conceded a staggering 13 goals in six Europa League matches, and their recent form highlights a total collapse in the backline, shipping 10 goals in their last three European fixtures alone. This defensive instability exists despite Dinamo controlling 50.4% of possession, as their high-risk style and 86% pass accuracy often leave them over-committed in the final third and exposed to rapid transitions.
FCSB operate with a reactive tactical profile, averaging just 43.8% possession and a 78.5% pass accuracy. They are designed to exploit the exact space Dinamo Zagreb vacate when their full-backs push high. With Juri Cisotti providing two assists and the pair of Darius Olaru and Florin Tanase posing a persistent goal-scoring threat from midfield, the visitors will punish a Dinamo defense that has allowed two or more goals in three consecutive games.
Dinamo Zagreb will rely on Dion Beljo to spearhead their attack in the absence of the suspended Sandro Kulenovic. Beljo has contributed two goals and an assist in the competition, and he is supported by Miha Zajc and Arbër Hoxha in a system that produces 9.8 shots per game. Because Dinamo have conceded heavily even when dominating the ball, their ability to keep a clean sheet is non-existent at this level.
The league phase positions of 25th and 27th place both teams in a desperate situation, with only three points separating 18th and 28th. This desperation ensures both sides will take significant risks in the second half. Since Dinamo’s last three Europa League matches have all surpassed the 2.5-goal threshold, the tactical mismatch between Dinamo’s high-line possession and FCSB’s counter-attacking bite will lead to a frequent exchange of goals.
What could go wrong? Dinamo Zagreb could attempt to resolve their recent defensive crisis by playing an uncharacteristically conservative game, stifling the match tempo. If FCSB fail to capitalize on transition moments and instead sit deep for 90 minutes, the game could settle into a sterile possession battle that stays under the total goal line.
Correct Score Lean
Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 FCSB
Dinamo Zagreb are technically superior, maintaining 50.4% possession and an 86% pass accuracy compared to FCSB’s 78.5% success rate. At home, Dinamo will control the territory and create a higher volume of scoring chances. While FCSB’s counter-attacking style and Dinamo’s poor defensive record guarantee the visitors a goal, Dinamo’s domestic strength—sitting top of their league—suggests they have the winning mentality to eventually grind out a result. A 2-1 result reflects Dinamo’s offensive efficiency and their persistent European defensive fragility.
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