bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Basel vs Aston Villa Predictions for Thursday’s Europa League clash at St. Jakob-Park. Thursday’s clash at St Jakob-Park has the emotional weight of a knockout tie, even if the format says otherwise. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Global Video Listings for this match
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Aston Villa Over 1.5 Team Goals aligns perfectly with both teams’ recent trends. Emery’s side have scored at least twice in six of their last seven matches in all competitions, reflecting a stable, repeatable attacking process. Creative players such as Buendia, Tielemans and Rogers support a dynamic runner in Malen, ensuring Villa generate chances in multiple ways. Basel, meanwhile, have conceded at least two goals in three of their five Europa League league-phase fixtures, and their open approach at St Jakob-Park can leave space in behind. Even with some rotation, Villa possess enough firepower to strike twice or more.
▾
Correct Score 1-3 Aston Villa captures the likely balance between Basel’s home threat and Villa’s attacking superiority. Basel have been excellent at St Jakob-Park and should create enough through Shaqiri and Otele to trouble Bizot’s defence at least once. However, Villa’s form – 13 wins in 15, with multiple goals in most of those games – suggests they can repeatedly exploit the spaces Basel leave when chasing points. A single Basel goal combined with three from Villa reflects both the home side’s pride and the visitors’ ruthless edge, offering a realistic, attacking scoreline that fits the underlying performance data.
Basel vs Aston Villa Predictions and Best Bets
Basel vs Aston Villa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds for this Europa League clash at St. Jakob-Park.
Aston Villa’s outstanding form makes them clear favourites, but Basel’s long Europa League home winning streak keeps the hosts dangerous at St. Jakob-Park.
Models lean towards a Villa victory by a narrow margin, with Basel’s attacking threat keeping outcomes like a 2–1 away win or a 1–1 draw firmly in play.
Basel’s open Europa League ties and Aston Villa’s habit of scoring at least twice in most games point towards a lively contest with good chances at both ends.
Shaqiri remains Basel’s creative talisman, while Malen and Buendia headline Aston Villa’s main attacking threats in advanced areas for shots and goals.
- Basel’s home streak versus European reality
- Basel have won seven Europa League home matches in a row, including 2-0 and 3-1 victories this season, yet they still carry a W2 L3 record overall in the current league phase.
- Villa’s goal machine keeps firing
- Aston Villa have racked up 13 wins in their last 15 games across all competitions, hitting at least two goals in 10 of those matches as Emery’s attackers dominate opponents.
- Conceding patterns that favour away goals
- Basel have shipped two or more goals in three of their five Europa League fixtures, while Villa’s only real vulnerability has been away results rather than a lack of offensive productivity.
Match Tempo: Average Goals in Recent Games
Basel’s Europa League ties have swung between control and chaos, while Aston Villa’s recent schedule has been packed with high-scoring, attack-heavy performances across competitions.
Results such as 3–1 against FCSB and 2–1 at Genk highlight how often Basel’s European matches turn into open, chance-rich contests.
With 13 wins in 15 matches and multiple goals in most, Villa’s fixtures regularly deliver sustained attacking pressure and plenty of scoring opportunities.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded Patterns
Looking at how often each side gives up multiple goals offers a quick sense of the defensive risk attached to backing either team to keep things tight.
Basel have let in at least two in three of five league-phase fixtures, even while maintaining a perfect home winning run in this season’s competition.
The defeat at Go Ahead Eagles stands out, but overall Villa’s defence of leads and attacking intensity have rarely dropped below a high competitive baseline.
Attacking Reliability: Multi-Goal Threat
This compares how consistently Basel and Aston Villa put opponents under repeated scoreboard pressure by scoring at least twice in recent key fixtures.
Wins over Stuttgart and FCSB, scoring twice or more in both, underline why St. Jakob-Park has become such an intimidating European venue.
Villa have struck at least twice in six of their last seven outings, combining structure in midfield with a fluid front line that keeps defences constantly under stress.
Can Basel’s Europa League Fortress Survive Aston Villa’s Relentless Goal Surge?
Basel are trying to cling on to a precarious Europa League playoff place, while Aston Villa are charging towards the top eight and automatic passage to the last 16. You can almost feel both sets of supporters nervously refreshing the table: Basel are sitting 24th in the league phase, hanging on to the last qualifying spot, whereas Villa are joint top of the entire 36-team field.
From a narrative point of view, it is irresistible. Basel are returning to a competition in which they reached the quarter-finals six years ago, and they are doing everything they can to remind Europe that St Jakob-Park is still a brutal place to visit. Seven consecutive Europa League home wins, including this season’s victories against Stuttgart and FCSB, are a loud, slightly arrogant way of saying “you don’t stroll into our ground and walk away with an easy evening”.
Aston Villa arrive as the swaggering visitors. Unai Emery has turned their form into something bordering on outrageous: 13 wins from their last 15 matches in all competitions, with at least two goals in 10 of those fixtures, is the return of a side operating like genuine contenders. They have rattled off six straight victories heading into this one and stunned Arsenal with that dramatic 2-1 win, sealed by Emiliano Buendia’s stoppage-time strike. If you support a rival Premier League side, that comeback probably made you mutter something unprintable at the television.
Basel’s fortress versus Villa’s surge
Basel’s campaign has been more chaotic than Villa’s, alternating defeats and wins in the league phase for a W2 L3 sequence. That pattern screams inconsistency, but it hides a crucial distinction between their home and away performances. At St Jakob-Park, they have been relentless in Europe: the current streak of seven straight home wins in this competition is the best ongoing run in the tournament. This term alone they have handled Stuttgart 2-0 and seen off FCSB 3-1, combining defensive resilience with enough attacking bite to put visitors under sustained pressure.
Domestically, Basel are rediscovering their rhythm. They come into this fixture after back-to-back victories, including a 3-1 success against Grand-Saconnex in the Swiss Cup and a wild 2-1 win over Winterthur in the league, settled by a 93rd-minute strike from Keigo Tsunemoto. That kind of last-gasp drama does more than give you three points; it injects belief into the dressing room and makes players feel that late chaos somehow belongs to them. Xherdan Shaqiri remains the creative and emotional heartbeat, having delivered 11 goals and 10 assists already this season and opening the scoring at Winterthur. Around him, options such as Benie Traore, Philip Otele and Moritz Broschinski compete for attacking roles, while Metinho, Leo Leroy and Andrej Bacanin give structure in midfield.
Aston Villa, in contrast, are not juggling inconsistency; they are managing excellence. Their Europa League record – four wins and one defeat from five – leaves them level on points with Lyon and FC Midtjylland at the top of the league phase. However, there is one glaring caveat: their away performances in European competition have been nowhere near as ruthless as their results at Villa Park. Villa have taken only one win from their last six UEFA Cup/Europa League away fixtures, drawing one and losing four, and they were beaten 2-1 by Go Ahead Eagles in October. That defeat, followed by a 2-0 reverse at Anfield, showed that Villa can look strangely human once they leave the comfort of the West Midlands.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
Tactical patterns and key match-ups
When you look at the likely line-ups, you can see very different approaches to risk and control. Basel are expected to set up with Hitz in goal behind a back four of Tsunemoto, Adjetey, Daniliuc and Schmid. That defensive unit has already shown at home that they can contain strong visiting attacks, but they will face arguably their hardest test of the season here. In front of them, Metinho and Bacanin are likely to provide the double pivot, with Leroy pushing higher and Shaqiri linking play as an advanced creator alongside Otele and Broschinski. That structure gives Basel width and the ability to overload wide areas, but it can leave gaps in transition if they lose the ball too high up the pitch.
Villa’s projected team is full of quality even with rotation. Bizot should start in goal, shielded by a back four of Bogarde, Lindelof, Pau Torres and Lucas Digne. Kamara and Onana in midfield provide the sort of physical and tactical platform that allows the attackers to go hunting. Ahead of them, Buendia, Tielemans and Rogers are all capable of finding pockets between the lines, while Donyell Malen brings direct running and movement in behind. Even if Ollie Watkins is rested, Malen’s pace and sharpness give Villa an obvious outlet when they decide to break quickly.
Injury-wise, Basel are monitoring Kaio Eduardo, while Villa are again without Tyrone Mings and Ross Barkley, and Evann Guessand remains a doubt. These absences matter, but the underlying profiles of both sides do not change: Basel rely heavily on Shaqiri’s vision and dead-ball threat, whereas Villa’s attacking depth allows Emery to rotate without truly weakening the side. Matty Cash, for instance, scored against Arsenal but can be rested here because Bogarde and Andres Garcia offer alternatives at right-back, and Lucas Digne has competition from Ian Maatsen on the left.
What does that all mean in practical terms? Basel are likely to attack enough to make chances, especially if Shaqiri drifts into half-spaces and drags markers with him, but Villa’s vertical speed and technical superiority in advanced zones make it very hard to imagine the visitors failing to create multiple clear openings over 90 minutes. The question, really, is not whether Villa will get into scoring positions, but how often they will punish Basel for leaving space.
Best Bet for This Match
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Aston Villa Over 1.5 Team Goals
At BettingTips4You we do things a little differently from a lot of the industry noise. We do not churn out a dozen conflicting selections for the same game and hope that one of them flies. Instead, for every fixture we cover, we identify a single primary prediction that we believe offers the best blend of data-based value, tactical logic and long-term accountability. One game, one standout angle. It keeps your decision simple and keeps our record honest.
For Basel vs Aston Villa, our main selection is Aston Villa Over 1.5 Team Goals.
The numbers and the tactical setups both point in the same direction. Villa have scored at least twice in six of their last seven matches in all competitions, which is a staggering level of attacking consistency. They are not grinding out 1-0 wins; they are repeatedly delivering multi-goal performances, even against strong opposition such as Arsenal. Emery’s structure, with Kamara and Onana protecting the defence and creative players like Buendia, Tielemans and Rogers feeding runners such as Malen, is designed to sustain pressure over long spells.
Basel, for all their superb Europa League home record, have shown enough defensive vulnerability to make this line attractive. They have conceded two or more goals in three of their five league-phase matches so far. Their alternation of results – L W L W L – hints at a side still searching for balance in Europe, and when they do open up, they can be exposed. The fact that Basel have needed late winners against weaker domestic opposition, like Winterthur at the bottom of the Swiss Super League, suggests that they are not suddenly going to park the bus for 90 minutes at home. They know they need points, and that almost certainly means taking risks.
Villa’s one obvious weakness is their European away record, but that is a much bigger concern for anyone backing them simply to win the match. For a team-goals bet, those away flaws can actually help: if Basel score or at least threaten, this game can become stretched, which suits a Villa attack that thrives in broken-field situations. Malen’s pace, Buendia’s late runs and Tielemans’s passes into the channels all become more dangerous when Basel push bodies forward. Emery’s reputation for taking cup competitions very seriously only reinforces the idea that Villa’s attacking setup will still be strong, even if he rotates a few starters.
BettingTips4You.com expert quote: “When you see a side like Villa scoring two or more in six of their last seven games, and you match that with Basel conceding heavily in this league phase, backing Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals is not romantic – it is simply respecting the data.”
In short, Villa might wobble at the back, they might even flirt with chaos again, but everything about their recent scoring pattern and Basel’s European defending suggests that two or more away goals is a very realistic outcome.
Likely shape of the game and correct score view
Given Basel’s obligation to attack at home and Villa’s appetite for transition moments, this contest has all the ingredients of a game where the visitors’ attacking class eventually overwhelms the hosts. Basel’s seven-match Europa League home winning run is impressive and deserves respect, but streaks often meet their toughest tests when a side like Villa arrive with momentum, depth and confidence to spare.
Basel will look to Shaqiri to dictate tempo and use Otele and Broschinski to stretch Villa’s defensive line, and they have enough quality to trouble Bizot and his back four at least once. However, the sheer volume of creative players in this Villa group, from Buendia between the lines to Malen’s direct running, makes it hard to envisage the Premier League side leaving Switzerland with only a single goal. Once the first away strike lands, Basel’s need for points could turn the final half-hour into a track meet, and that usually favours the better athletes and the more efficient attacking structure.
Putting those strands together, our preferred correct score is Basel 1-3 Aston Villa. That respects Basel’s threat at St Jakob-Park – they are absolutely capable of scoring, especially if Villa repeat the slow starts we have seen in some recent away outings – but it also reflects Villa’s relentless scoring form and Basel’s habit of conceding multiple times in this league phase. A 3-1 away victory mirrors Villa’s capacity to respond, escalate and finish strongly once the game opens up.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
