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Ajax vs Groningen predictions for This Eredivisie. Ajax’s campaign has drifted from mildly concerning to full-on crisis in the space of a few weeks. They began the season with their usual swagger at home, stacking up four consecutive league victories in Amsterdam while struggling on their travels. The Johan Cruyff Arena still felt like a fortress back then. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Ajax have not kept a clean sheet in 15 matches across all competitions, conceding at least twice in each of their last four games. Groningen have also gone eight fixtures without a shut-out and have been involved in several high-scoring encounters, including heavy defeats but also a 2-2 draw against PEC Zwolle where their attacking threat was clear. With Van Bergen in form, Resink creating chances and Ajax still boasting dangerous forwards such as Godts and Weghorst or Dolberg, both teams have the tools to score. Combined with fragile back lines and strong motivation on both sides, BTTS is a logical selection.
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A 3-2 home win reflects a contest dominated by attacking quality and defensive vulnerability. Ajax are under pressure to respond in front of their fans and have enough firepower, with Godts, Weghorst and potentially Dolberg, to score multiple times. Groningen, however, carry real threat through Van Bergen, Taha and the creativity of Resink, so they are unlikely to leave without finding the net. Neither defence inspires confidence, making a high-scoring game very plausible. Ajax’s extra individual quality and home advantage tilt a chaotic match slightly in their favour, with a narrow 3-2 victory matching the expected pattern of the night.
Ajax vs Groningen Predictions and Best Bets
- Goals at both ends written into the form
- Ajax have failed to keep a single clean sheet in 15 consecutive competitive matches, while Groningen have gone eight games without a shut-out, making defensive security a complete myth for both teams.
- Groningen’s attack quietly carrying real threat
- Thom van Bergen scored twice in the draw with PEC Zwolle and Stije Resink now has five assists, meaning Groningen’s front line regularly punishes opponents even when their back line struggles.
- Ajax’s confidence crumbling under mounting pressure
- With only one win in 10 across all competitions and four straight defeats under Fred Grim, Ajax approach this game with immense anxiety despite still carrying serious firepower in forward areas.
Will Ajax’s Fragile Defence Survive Groningen’s Ambition in Amsterdam?
That illusion has gone. Their last three Eredivisie games at home have produced two defeats and a draw, the sort of return that would have been unthinkable not long ago. The internal problems have been mirrored on the pitch: fragile off the ball, disjointed in possession, and visibly low on confidence when things turn against them.
Johnny Heitinga’s return to the dugout did not produce the expected bounce and the 3-0 Champions League defeat to Galatasaray proved the tipping point, costing him his job. Fred Grim has stepped in, but the results have somehow sunk further. Four straight losses in all competitions under his watch, five matches without a win, and just one victory in ten across all fronts tell the story of a club who are miles from their usual standards.
The form line in the Eredivisie – D, L, W, D, L, L – sums it up: streaky, inconsistent and ultimately disappointing. Ajax now risk sliding further down the table, with Groningen lurking just behind and smelling opportunity. For a club with their history, that alone is enough to make emotions run high in Amsterdam.
Groningen’s chance… if they can defend for more than five minutes
If ever Groningen were going to end their long wait for a league win in Amsterdam, this feels like the moment. They have not beaten Ajax since October 2020, and they have taken only one point from the last seven meetings. On paper that is ugly. But football is played in the present, and right now Ajax are there to be attacked.
The problem is that Groningen are not exactly a model of calm at the back either. They have gone three Eredivisie games without victory and four winless across all competitions. Their own inability to keep clean sheets mirrors Ajax’s decline: no shut-out in eight games in league and cup, and some heavy scorelines along the way.
Letting in four against AZ Alkmaar and four more against PSV Eindhoven in earlier league defeats highlighted structural issues, while a brutal 5-2 loss to Sparta Rotterdam in the cup underlined how quickly they can unravel. Even when results briefly picked up – with impressive away wins at Utrecht, NAC Breda and Fortuna Sittard – the foundation was not defensive perfection but outscoring opponents.
The most recent away league match ended in a 2-0 loss at NEC, which pegged back some of that optimism, but Groningen still arrive knowing that three points in Amsterdam could lift them into the top four if other results fall kindly. That combination of opportunity and vulnerability makes them dangerous but unpredictable.
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Key Tactical Themes and Selection Notes
Ajax come into this one with fitness concerns but no fresh injuries from the defeat to Benfica. Steven Berghuis remains out with a groin issue and Branco van den Boomen continues to nurse a back problem. The likely XI of Pasveer; Rosa, Sutalo, Baas, Alders; Regeer, Taylor; Edvardsen, Gloukh, Godts; Weghorst still carries significant attacking punch.
Mika Godts is arguably the brightest spark of the moment, having scored or assisted in each of his last four Eredivisie outings, contributing three goals and two assists in that stretch and reaching double figures for goal involvements this season. Wout Weghorst, with six league goals, is the main reference up front, but he has gone a month without scoring, which has opened the door for Kasper Dolberg to be considered again after his goal against Excelsior. Grim may be tempted to tweak the front line to jolt some life into Ajax’s penalty-box presence.
Defensively, the picture is far darker. Ajax have not kept a clean sheet in any competition since August, a run of 15 matches. They have conceded at least twice in their last four games, which is astonishing for a club of their stature. The back four looks nervous, the midfield protection is inconsistent, and teams are no longer intimidated by the badge.
Groningen, by contrast, are relatively healthy. Aside from Newcastle loanee Travis Harris, who was unlikely to feature anyway, Dick Lukkien has a full-strength group. The probable line-up of Vaessen; Rente, Blokzijl, Janse, Peersman; De Jonge, Resink; Der Werff, Taha, Schreuders; Van Bergen has a good balance between industry and creativity.
Thom van Bergen arrives in good spirits after scoring twice in the 2-2 draw with PEC Zwolle, showing composure and movement in the final third. Behind him, Stije Resink has emerged as a genuine creative hub; his assist in that match was his fifth of the campaign, outpacing Younes Taha, who has three. Groningen might leak chances, but they definitely carry a threat on the break and in structured attacking phases.
Crucially, both teams’ defensive records and attacking weapons point in the same direction: this is unlikely to be a quiet evening.
Best Bet for This Match
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Both Teams To Score
At BettingTips4You we keep our approach honest and streamlined: for every fixture, we publish one primary prediction. Not three, not five—just our single strongest angle for that match. That philosophy is about quality over quantity and transparency over noise. It means you do not need to sift through conflicting options and it allows us to track profitability cleanly, tip by tip, game by game.
For Ajax vs Groningen, our standout selection is Both Teams To Score.
This recommendation flows directly from how these sides are playing. Ajax are still more than capable going forward, with Godts in excellent creative form and Weghorst or Dolberg providing genuine presence up front. Their underlying attacking numbers are not those of a side that has forgotten how to score; the problem is that every time they commit bodies forward, the spaces behind look enormous. Conceding two or more in four successive matches and failing to keep a clean sheet in 15 games across all competitions is not a blip – it is an identity.
Groningen mirror that in their own way. They have not managed a clean sheet in eight matches in league and cup, and some of the scorelines – 4-1 against AZ, 4-2 against PSV, 5-2 versus Sparta – show just how exposed they can become. Yet they have attacking weapons of their own. Van Bergen arrives after a brace against PEC Zwolle, while Resink’s five assists show he consistently creates openings. Taha and Schreuders add further threat in and around the box.
Mentality matters as well. Ajax are under huge pressure and cannot afford to sit back at home. Groningen smell weakness and know they can climb above their hosts with a win. That combination almost guarantees that both sides will go for it rather than shutting up shop.
As summed up neatly in our BettingTips4You.com expert quote:
“When neither defence is capable of a quiet night and both attacks have proven end product, you don’t chase miracles — you back goals at both ends and enjoy the chaos.”
Given the form, the tactical setups, and the psychological stakes, Both Teams To Score offers a logical, data-backed route into this match.
Correct Score Prediction: Ajax 3–2 Groningen
While our main angle is BTTS, the pattern of recent games suggests plenty of goals and a marginal edge for Ajax. Groningen have enough quality to hurt them, especially on transitions, but Ajax’s attacking depth and the sheer desperation to stop their slide may just tilt a wild contest in the hosts’ favour.
A 3-2 home win fits the expected script: Ajax on the front foot, shaky at the back, Groningen dangerous on counters, and neither side managing to close the game down. The Amsterdam side’s individual quality in the final third could be the difference in a match that swings repeatedly.
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