bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Will Marseille’s high-tempo machine overwhelm Rennes, or can Beye’s side turn the Vélodrome into a trap? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Read Rationale ▾
Marseille have been prolific in the cup, scoring 15 goals in two games. While they dominate possession at the Vélodrome, their vulnerability to through balls and defensive transitions often gifts opponents chances. Rennes’ strong away form and wide attacking threat suggest they will find the net in a Marseille victory.
Read Rationale ▾
Marseille average over two goals per game overall and have home advantage. Rennes are consistent scorers but have shown defensive scars in recent heavy defeats. A tight 2-1 scoreline reflects Marseille’s superior shot volume and goal output while accounting for Rennes’ ability to exploit Marseille’s high defensive line.
The Coupe de France doesn’t do gentle build-ups, and this one lands with a bang: an all–Ligue 1 last-16 tie under the lights at the Stade Vélodrome. Marseille want a route to silverware while Rennes arrive chasing momentum.
Marseille vs Rennes Preview
- Shot Volume Meets Possession Control: Marseille average 14.6 shots per game in Ligue 1 with 59.4% possession, and they complete passes at 89.5%—they’ll try to suffocate Rennes early.
- Cup Ruthlessness So Far: Marseille have already smashed in 15 goals in 2 Coupe de France matches, including a 6–0 and a 9–0—this tie starts at full blast.
- Rennes’ Away Edge, But Recent Scars: Rennes have won 4 of their last 6 away matches across competitions, yet they come in off back-to-back league defeats (0–2 vs Lorient, 0–4 at Monaco).
Marseille vs Rennes — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 odds for the Round of 16.
Marseille sit 3rd in Ligue 1 with an 11-match unbeaten home run in the Coupe de France, while Rennes face a tough trip following two heavy league losses.
Marseille average 2.3 goals per game in Ligue 1, while Rennes have scored 3+ goals in five of their last seven Coupe de France matches.
Marseille have won 2-1 or 2-0 in several recent league and cup meetings; Rennes have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 2 matches.
Mason Greenwood leads the Marseille line with 13 goals this season, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang provides a veteran cup presence.
The Coupe de France doesn’t do gentle build-ups, and this one lands with a bang: an all–Ligue 1 last-16 tie under the lights at the Stade Vélodrome, kicking off at 20:10. Marseille want a route to silverware after recent league wobble, while Rennes arrive chasing momentum after a bruising couple of domestic results.
Roberto De Zerbi’s Marseille have blown teams away in this competition so far—scorelines that scream confidence—yet the wider form is more uneven, with just one win from their last four across all competitions. Habib Beye’s Rennes have mixed it too: sharp wins away, but also a pair of league losses that raise the temperature on every decision. This feels like a night where the first spell of chaos could decide the tone for everything.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Game
Both sides maintain high offensive engagement, but Marseille’s central control leads to a higher volume of attempts.
With a pass completion rate of 89.5%, Marseille focus on creating sustained pressure in the final third.
Rennes utilise width and long-range efforts to generate shot volume, averaging nearly 6 corners per game.
Defensive Performance: Clean Sheet Frequency
Marseille have shut out opponents significantly more often than Rennes across all competitions this season.
Despite their defensive stability, they remain vulnerable to through balls and transitions.
Rennes have struggled for defensive consistency, conceding 6 goals across their last two league outings.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Marseille News
Marseille absences:
T. Vermot (no eligibility)
Benjamin Pavard (yellow card suspension)
E. Palmieri dos Santos (dead leg)
Rennes News
Rennes absences:
No absences listed.
Marseille Probable XI
De Lange; Pavard, Balerdi, Medina; Weah, Hojbjerg, Timber, Paixao; Greenwood, Traore; Gouiri
Rennes Probable XI
Samba; Seidu, Boudlal, Brassier; Frankowski, Camara, Cisse, Merlin, Tamari; Lepaul, Embolo
What it means: Marseille’s selection carries a built-in talking point: Pavard is listed in the possible XI but is also suspended. If he misses out, it forces a reshuffle at the back and tests Marseille’s ability to play that aggressive line without losing control. Rennes look more stable on paper, and that consistency matters in a stadium that feeds off early uncertainty.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Marseille | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (Ligue 1) | 46 (20 apps) | 30 (20 apps) |
| Shots per game (Ligue 1) | 14.6 | 13.3 |
| Possession % (Ligue 1) | 59.4% | 51.9% |
| Pass % (Ligue 1) | 89.5% | 85.0% |
| Goals per game (overall) | 2.28 | 1.64 |
| Clean sheets (overall) | 15 | 6 |
| Corners per game (overall) | 5.3 | 5.95 |
Marseille bring the cleaner build-up and the heavier punch—more goals, more shots, more ball. Rennes aren’t miles off on shot volume, and their corner output is higher, which hints at sustained wide pressure and repeat entries even when open play gets squeezed. If Marseille dominate territory, Rennes’ route back looks like width, deliveries, and second phases.
Tactical Battle
Marseille Tactics
Marseille want the pitch tilted. They play possession football, control games in the opposition half, and keep it moving with short passing—numbers that back it up, too: 62% ball possession and 89% passing in the broader match sample, plus 581.49 passes per game. That’s the platform for a front end with bite.
The headline threat is Mason Greenwood. He’s on 13 Ligue 1 goals, averages 3.5 shots per game, and carries a 7.48 rating—he’s the kind of attacker who turns a good spell into the net. Add Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s 6 goals and 5 assists, and Marseille can hurt you in multiple ways once the first line breaks.
But there’s a sting in Marseille’s own profile: they struggle with protecting the lead, and they’re very weak defending through balls. They also play the offside trap. That’s high-wire football, especially if the back line isn’t settled.
Rennes Tactics
Rennes’ stylistic notes are clear: play with width, attack down the left, take long shots, and still aim to control territory in the opposition half. They also have weaknesses that match Marseille’s strengths in an uncomfortable way: they’re weak at stopping opponents creating chances, and they’re weak defending counter attacks. That’s a dangerous cocktail if Marseille win the ball and spring forward quickly.
Going the other way, Rennes do have finishers. Estéban Lepaul has 8 Ligue 1 goals with 3 assists, and Breel Embolo brings 5 goals and 2 assists. If Rennes get runners arriving off those wide channels—especially with Mousa Tamari (2 goals, 3 assists) feeding the box—Marseille’s vulnerability to through balls starts to look like an invitation.
Key Zones & Moments to Watch
- The first wave: Marseille’s average first goal time is 38′ in the broader sample. If they land early, the Vélodrome turns the volume up and Rennes get forced into risk.
- Corners and second balls: Rennes average 5.95 corners per game, higher than Marseille’s 5.3. If Rennes can keep winning corners, they can keep the tie alive even without long spells of possession.
- The offside trap test: Both teams play the offside trap, and Rennes are very weak avoiding offside. That’s a tactical knife-edge—timing either kills attacks or creates breakaways.
- Key duel in the final third: Greenwood’s shot output and end product versus Samba’s ability to steady Rennes when the stadium is roaring.
What Could Go Wrong?
Marseille can dominate the ball and still hand Rennes a route back if they get sloppy protecting transitions—especially with their weakness against through balls. Rennes can carry real threat, but if their wide attacks break down, they risk getting caught with bodies high and spaces behind. One untidy five-minute spell, one mistimed step on that defensive line, and this tie can flip fast.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires you to predict two outcomes in one: which team wins the match and that both teams score at least one goal. It is a popular choice for those seeking higher odds than a simple win bet when a favourite is likely to concede.
Pros: Significantly better pricing than the standard win market. Cons: If the winning team keeps a clean sheet, the bet is lost.
Correct Score
A high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Because of the difficulty in getting the precise result right, the odds are typically much higher.
Pros: High potential returns for low stakes. Cons: Extremely volatile; a single late goal or missed chance can ruin the prediction.
🎯 Marseille to Win & Both Teams to Score
Marseille enter this tie as the dominant force in the Coupe de France so far, having netted 15 goals in just two matches. Their tactical setup under Roberto De Zerbi focuses on extreme ball dominance, evidenced by an 89.5% pass completion rate and 59.4% average possession. This control allows them to suffocate opponents at the Stade Vélodrome. However, Marseille’s aggressive high line is a double-edged sword; they are noted for being weak at defending through balls and struggle to protect leads once they are ahead.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Marseille average 14.6 shots per game, creating constant pressure.
- Rennes attack with width and average nearly 6 corners per match, ensuring regular delivery into the box.
- Marseille’s high defensive line is vulnerable to the quick transitions Rennes favour.
Rennes are perfectly placed to exploit these defensive gaps. They focus their attacks down the left and are comfortable taking long-range shots to test opposition keepers. Given that Rennes have won four of their last six away games, they possess the confidence to find the net. Marseille’s superior shot volume and home advantage should see them through, but a clean sheet for the hosts is unlikely given their tactical weaknesses.
Risk Factor: If Marseille’s possession control is so absolute that Rennes cannot manage a single successful counter-attack, the BTTS element will fail.
🎯 Marseille 2-1 Rennes
Predicting a 2-1 victory for Marseille aligns with the statistical profiles of both clubs. Marseille score at an average of 2.28 goals per game across their broader match sample, while Rennes average 1.64. Marseille’s ability to create chances through short passing and central punch, led by Mason Greenwood’s 13 goals, suggests they will breach the Rennes defence multiple times. Rennes, meanwhile, have shown defensive frailties recently, conceding six goals in their last two league matches against Monaco and Lorient.
📊 Scoreline Probability Dashboard
Rennes are unlikely to leave the Vélodrome without scoring. They average more corners per game than Marseille (5.95 vs 5.3), which often leads to second-phase opportunities and sustained pressure. Marseille’s tendency to allow through balls means Rennes’ forwards, like Estéban Lepaul, will get chances to exploit the space behind the Marseille backline. A 2-1 scoreline respects Marseille’s overall superiority and 15 clean sheets while acknowledging the defensive risk inherent in their tactical system.
Risk Factor: Correct score bets are highly sensitive to game state; an early red card or a flurry of goals in the first 20 minutes can quickly make this scoreline impossible.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕What is Match Result / 1X2?
This is the most common football bet where you choose one of three outcomes: a Home Win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away Win (2).
⊕What is Correct Score?
This market requires you to predict exactly what the final score will be at the end of the 90 minutes (plus injury time).
⊕What does “odds” mean (fractional vs decimal)?
Odds represent the ratio between the stake and the potential return. Fractional (e.g., 2/1) shows profit relative to stake, while Decimal (e.g., 3.00) shows the total return including the stake.
⊕How does implied probability work?
Implied probability is the percentage chance of an outcome occurring as suggested by the bookmaker’s odds. You can calculate it by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.
⊕What are the main risks of Correct Score betting?
The primary risk is precision; even if you correctly predict the winner and the general flow of the game, a single goal from either side at any moment results in a loss.
⊕What is bankroll management?
This is a safer-gambling strategy where you set aside a specific amount of money for betting and only use a small percentage of it on any single wager to ensure you don’t lose more than you can afford.
⊕What does “value” mean?
In betting, “value” describes a situation where a bettor believes the probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker’s odds suggest.
⊕What should I do if team news changes?
If key players are injured or lineups are unexpected, you should reassess your prediction as it may change the tactical balance and likelihood of certain outcomes.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply
Please remember to always gamble responsibly. Set a budget before you start, use deposit limits, and stop playing when it is no longer fun.
