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Will Lille’s aerial and set-piece edge outweigh Lyon’s through-ball threat in this Coupe de France heavyweight? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lyon hold a clear psychological advantage, having remained unbeaten in their last five encounters with Lille, winning four of those matches. Lille are currently grappling with significant selection issues, particularly in defense, with key starters away on international duty or sidelined by injury. Lyon’s recent form is superior, coming off a string of high-scoring victories, while Lille recently suffered a shutout loss at home. Given the tactical matchup where Lyon’s wing play and through balls can exploit Lille’s aggressive but weakened defensive line, the visitors are well-positioned to avoid defeat at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
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Historical data shows this fixture is frequently competitive and often features goals for both sides. Lyon have scored at least two goals in three of their last four wins against Lille. With Lille missing their primary central defenders, Lyon’s clinical attackers like Pavel Šulc are expected to find the net. However, Lille remain a potent offensive force at home and are very strong at finishing scoring chances, making it likely they will score at least once. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Lyon's recent superiority while acknowledging Lille's ability to remain competitive in high-profile cup ties.
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Lille vs Lyon Predictions and Best Bets
Lille vs Lyon — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Listed odds suggest Lille hold narrow favouritism at home, though Lyon’s dominant head-to-head record creates a high-probability draw/away scenario.
With both sides currently listed as “weak at protecting the lead,” markets anticipate both finding the net during open transitions.
Lille’s cup history leans under, but their Ligue 1 average of 1.94 goals per game suggests a threat to the 2.5 line.
- Territory and pressure: Across the 24-game snapshot, Lille have 145 corners and 1317 dangerous attacks, numbers that keep opponents defending set plays and repeat-wave pressure for long stretches.
- Goal trends in the cup: Lille’s last four Coupe de France matches have all finished under 2.5 goals, so this tie can stay tight even with two aggressive, possession-based teams.
- Defensive edge over 24 games: Lille have conceded 29 in 24 matches while Lyon have conceded 20 in 24, a gap that makes Lyon harder to break down across the same span.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored in Ligue 1
Both sides demonstrate high scoring consistency in domestic play, averaging well over a goal per game.
An average of 1.94 goals per game reflects their ability to turn 14.5 shots per match into consistent scoring.
Lyon find the net roughly 1.47 times per game, relying on clinical finishing from 12.6 shots per appearance.
Match Control: Possession & Passing Accuracy
These sides mirror each other’s tactical approach, prioritising control of the ball to dictate tempo.
Holding 54.9% possession on average, Lille use accurate short passing to maintain pressure in the opposition half.
Lyon actually lead the pair in passing accuracy and average 55.3% possession, suggesting a very technical clash.
One of the Coupe de France round of 32’s headline ties lands at Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Sunday, with Lille and Lyon going toe-to-toe for a place in the last 16. It’s two Ligue 1 sides, two squads packed with experience and energy, and two teams who already took care of business in their opening cup outings last month: Lille edged Saint-Maur 1-0, while Lyon brushed aside Saint-Cyr Collonges 3-0.
That’s the straightforward bit. The more interesting bit is how different their recent rhythms look. Lille’s last six matches include wins at Le Havre and Auxerre, a 1-0 home win over Olympique Marseille, then a 2-0 defeat to Rennes on January 3. Lyon’s own last six is even punchier on paper: a 3-1 win away at Monaco, a 3-0 win over Nantes, a 1-0 win over Le Havre, plus Europa League wins against Go Ahead Eagles and a thumping 6-0 away win at Maccabi Tel Aviv — with the lone bump a 1-0 loss at Lorient.
And then there’s the recent head-to-head edge. Across the last six meetings listed, Lyon have won four, with one draw and one Lille win. Even at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, the tie has been lively: Lille lost 0-1 to Lyon on September 28, 2025, and were involved in a 3-4 defeat on May 6, 2024. This is a cup night with enough history in the fixture list to make both sets of players feel the temperature before they even step outside into it.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Lille’s possible starting lineup reads as Berke Özer in goal; Thomas Meunier, Mbemba, Aïssa Mandi, and Calvin Verdonk in defence; Benjamin André with Nabil Bentaleb in midfield; Marius Broholm, Hákon Haraldsson, and Matias Fernandez-Pardo supporting Olivier Giroud up top.
On paper, it’s a side shaped to play on the front foot. Lille’s identity is built around controlling the game in the opposition’s half, possession football, and attempting through balls often, while staying aggressive. The listed strengths back that up: Lille are very strong at creating chances through individual skill, strong at creating scoring chances, and strong at finishing scoring chances. They’re also strong in aerial duels, strong attacking set pieces, and strong defending set pieces. In a knockout tie, that mix matters: it gives Lille multiple ways to turn control into goals, and it gives them a platform to defend the moments where cup matches often swing.
The weakness, though, is a big one for this type of match: Lille are weak at protecting the lead. So even if they get themselves in front, their game still needs structure and discipline, not a drop into comfort.
There is also a key availability note that can’t be ignored. The injured and suspended list includes C. Mbemba Mangulu (suspended), N. Bentaleb (unknown injury), O. Touré (cruciate ligament tear), and I. Hamza (called up to national team until 19.01.2026). That creates a clear tension with the possible XI, which includes Mbemba and Bentaleb.
Lyon’s possible starting lineup is Rémy Descamps in goal; Ruben Kluivert, Clinton Mata and Nicolás Tagliafico at the back; Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Corentin Tolisso, Tanner Tessmann and Abner Vinícius across midfield; Khalis Merah as the central support; with Martín Satriano and Pavel Sulc leading the line.
Lyon’s style profile shares plenty with Lille’s, which is why this tie feels heavyweight. Lyon play possession football, are aggressive, attempt crosses often, and attempt through balls often. They attack through the middle and attack down the left. The strengths are well-rounded: attacking set pieces, attacking down the wings, creating chances through individual skill, creating chances using through balls, and defending set pieces. The weaknesses are also clearly defined: protecting the lead is weak, avoiding fouling in dangerous areas is weak, and aerial duels are weak.
So both sides walk into this with a similar blueprint — and similar anxiety when the match flips into a lead to protect.
How the Match Could Be Played
This game has two likely phases: an early battle for territory and tempo, then a test of who can survive the transitions once the patterns are established.
Lille’s default is to squeeze you. They control the game in the opposition’s half and lean into possession football, which means Özer and the back four need to be brave enough to play into André and Bentaleb early, with Haraldsson and Fernandez-Pardo drifting into spaces to receive and turn. Lille’s tendency to attempt through balls often adds a sharp edge to that patient build-up: the aim isn’t sterile possession, it’s possession that creates a split-second to slide a pass beyond a defensive line.
Giroud changes the geometry. With Lille strong in aerial duels and strong at attacking set pieces, a forward who can occupy centre-backs and bring others into play becomes a tactical anchor. If Broholm and Fernandez-Pardo can deliver early balls into zones where Giroud can compete, Lille can turn wide possession into direct threat quickly, without needing twenty passes to arrive at the box.
Lyon, though, are built to hurt you when you commit players forward. Their profile is heavy on through balls and wing threat, and they also attempt crosses often. With Maitland-Niles and Abner on the outside of midfield, and Tagliafico involved from the back line, Lyon can overload the flanks and then punch into the inside channels. That suits Sulc, whose Ligue 1 output is eight goals and two assists, and it suits a supporting attacker like Merah finding space between midfield and defence.
The most important duel might be the left side — because both teams attack down the left. Lille’s style calls that out directly, and Lyon’s does too. That creates a strange mirror: both want to dominate the same corridor. If both sides commit heavily to that lane, the opposite flank becomes the sneaky route for the first decisive moment — the side that switches play quicker gets the cleaner crossing angle and the easier run into the box.
Transitions will matter because both teams are labelled weak at protecting the lead. That isn’t just a late-game concern. It shapes their behaviour even at 0-0. If you feel vulnerable after scoring, you can subconsciously chase the second goal too quickly and open yourself up. Lille are aggressive and Lyon are aggressive. That can be thrilling — and reckless.
Set pieces are another huge layer. Both sides are strong at defending set pieces, and Lille are strong at attacking set pieces while Lyon are strong at attacking set pieces. That sounds like a stalemate, but it actually raises the stakes: if both teams execute well, set pieces become less about chaos and more about quality of delivery, timing, and first contact. Lille’s strength in aerial duels meets Lyon’s weakness in aerial duels, and that is one of the clearest stylistic clashes in the whole tie. If Lille win their headers in both boxes, they can tilt the match without needing long spells of dominance.
The flip side is discipline. Lyon are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Against a side strong at attacking set pieces and capable of creating long shot opportunities, needless fouls can become a direct invitation to pressure.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Lille’s domestic numbers paint a team that plays like a favourite in possession and chance creation terms. In Ligue 1 they have scored 33 goals in 17 matches, taking 14.5 shots per game with 54.9% possession and an 84.7% pass completion. That means Lille spend long stretches with the ball and they turn that control into frequent shooting positions, which suits their “strong finishing” label.
Lyon’s Ligue 1 profile is similarly assertive: 25 goals in 17 matches from 12.6 shots per game, with 55.3% possession and 85.9% passing. That is a side comfortable owning the ball and progressing it cleanly, while still carrying a directness through through balls and crosses.
The cup snapshot adds another angle: Lille’s last four Coupe de France matches have all finished under 2.5 goals. That matters because it frames their cup identity as controlled and efficient rather than chaotic. It also means early minutes could be cagey, even with two aggressive teams, because both know knockout football punishes impatience.
Looking at the wider “last 24 matches” totals, Lille have scored 44 and conceded 29, while Lyon have scored 41 and conceded 20. That’s a sizeable defensive edge for Lyon over the same sample size, and it makes their ability to manage game states feel more stable — even if “protecting the lead” is still listed as weak.
The chance volume and pressure indicators lean Lille. Across the 24 played games shown, Lille have 145 corners to Lyon’s 132, and Lille lead total attacks (2569 to 2161) and dangerous attacks (1317 to 1093). That means Lille more consistently drive play into the final third and create repeat-wave pressure, which is exactly where their strengths in individual skill and long-shot creation can grind a team down.
Individually, the goal threats are clear. For Lille in Ligue 1, Haraldsson has five goals, Hamza Igamane has five, and Giroud has four. For Lyon, Sulc’s eight stands out, with Tolisso on three and Satriano on two. If this tie turns on one sharp spell, those are the names most likely to be at the heart of it.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is the aerial battle in both boxes. Lille are strong in aerial duels, and Lyon are weak in aerial duels. If Lille start winning first contact at corners and wide free-kicks, Lyon’s defensive comfort disappears quickly, and the match becomes about survival rather than control.
The second moment is the first through ball that properly splits a line. Both teams attempt through balls often, and both are strong at creating chances that way. One step out of line, one mistimed press, and suddenly the match is played at sprint speed rather than pass speed.
The third moment is discipline near the box. Lyon are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, and Lille are strong at attacking set pieces. If Lille can force body contact in wide areas and around the edge of the final third, they can turn Lyon’s defensive actions into dead-ball pressure.
The fourth moment is what happens after the opener. Lille are weak at protecting the lead, and Lyon are weak at protecting the lead. That means the goal that “settles” the match might not settle anything. It can turn the contest into a second-wave fight for control, where both managers’ instructions would usually be “calm down” — but the teams’ profiles pull them towards “go again”.
What could go wrong with this read? A cup tie can ignore its own logic. Even with two possession sides, one early red card can rip up structure, and both teams have red cards in their wider discipline totals. One awkward deflection can flip momentum, and a match that starts slow can suddenly become frantic if the first goal arrives from a set piece rather than open play.
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Lyon to Win or Draw
Lyon enter this cup tie with significant psychological momentum and a historical edge that cannot be ignored. They have not lost to Lille in their last five meetings, winning four of those encounters. This includes a 1-0 victory at this very stadium in September 2025, proving they have the blueprint to stifle the hosts in their own backyard. While Lille sit slightly higher in the league table, their recent form has been inconsistent, highlighted by a 2-0 home defeat to Rennes just a week ago. That loss exposed vulnerabilities in a side that, while aggressive, often struggles to maintain defensive discipline when pressed.
The tactical matchup specifically favors the visitors’ counter-attacking style. Lyon are strong at creating chances using through balls and attacking down the wings, which directly exploits Lille’s aggressive high line. Furthermore, a glaring physical mismatch exists in the air; Lille are strong in aerial duels, but Lyon’s weakness in this area is mitigated by their own proficiency in defending set pieces and their ability to keep the ball on the deck. Lyon play with width and attempt crosses often, utilizing the pace of Maitland-Niles and Abner to stretch a Lille backline that will be missing key personnel.
Squad availability is the most decisive factor here. Lille are severely depleted in defense and midfield. Chancel Mbemba and Aïssa Mandi are away on international duty, while Ousmane Touré is sidelined with a long-term injury and Alexsandro has been nursing a thigh issue. In midfield, the absence of Nabil Bentaleb and potential suspension issues for other key players leave the hosts thin. Lyon, meanwhile, have found a clinical edge through Pavel Šulc, who has already netted eight goals this season and scored a brace in the previous round. Given Lyon’s five-match unbeaten run against Lille and the hosts’ defensive shortages, the visitors are well-placed to at least force a draw or progress outright within regulation time.
What could go wrong
Lille possess a veteran presence in Olivier Giroud, who remains a massive threat in aerial duels and attacking set pieces. If the hosts can capitalize on Lyon’s known weakness in the air early in the match, they may force the visitors to abandon their structured counter-attacking game. Additionally, if Lille’s individual skill—a listed very strong trait—results in an early moment of brilliance from players like Haraldsson, Lyon’s own struggle with protecting a lead could see the game slip away from them.
Correct score lean
Lille 1-2 Lyon
Lyon have consistently found ways to outscore Lille in recent high-stakes encounters, including a 4-3 thriller in May 2024 and a 2-1 cup win in early 2025. With Lille’s defense currently missing several first-choice starters due to international duty and injury, they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a Lyon side that recently put six goals past Maccabi Tel Aviv and three past Monaco. However, Lille’s strong home scoring record and Giroud’s presence ensure they should find the net, likely resulting in a narrow victory for the more settled visitors.
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