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Auxerre vs Monaco Predictions Sunday’s Coupe de France round of 64 offers a rare curiosity: the only tie in the phase that pitches two top-flight sides against each other. Monaco make the trip to the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps to face Auxerre, with both clubs carrying fresh memories of disappointment from this competition last season. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Newcastle hold a massive psychological advantage with seven straight Premier League wins against Burnley, including a 2-1 victory just weeks ago. While Burnley are desperate for points, their statistical profile shows deep-seated issues; they possess the ball less (41.5%) and struggle with passing accuracy (77.6%). Newcastle's ability to create high-quality chances from inside the box (69% of shots) and their strength in set-piece situations should allow them to overcome a Burnley side that is statistically weak at defending both dead-ball scenarios and rapid transitions.
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This scoreline reflects the most recent meeting between the two sides on December 6th, which Newcastle won 2-1. Historically, Burnley are incredibly consistent at home in this fixture, having scored exactly one goal in all seven of their Premier League home games against the Magpies. With Newcastle’s defense keeping only one clean sheet in their last six outings, a Burnley goal is likely, but the visitors' overall squad quality and historical dominance point toward them ultimately securing all three points.
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Auxerre vs Monaco Predictions and Best Bets
Auxerre vs Monaco — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Monaco’s attacking potency and historical dominance make them significant favourites in the 1X2 market for this Coupe de France tie.
Pricing points towards a Monaco win with goals, with the 1-2 and 0-2 results reflecting their scoring consistency.
Markets lean towards a high-scoring game (Over 2.5), aligned with Monaco’s average of 3.31 goals per match.
- Auxerre’s finishing challenge: Auxerre average 11.31 shots per Ligue 1 match but convert only eight per cent, explaining why their 0.88 goals per game often fail to reward solid build-up play.
- Monaco’s open games: Monaco matches average 3.31 total goals in Ligue 1, with the side scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.69 per game, underlining a pattern of assertive but risky football.
- Early-phase contrast: Auxerre draw 75 per cent of their opening ten-minute league segments, while Monaco score 19 per cent of their goals in that same window, setting up a compelling early tactical battle.
Attacking Sharpness: Conversion Rate
A comparison of how clinical each side is in front of goal based on league performance data leading into this tie.
Monaco’s attacking trio provides a higher scoring efficiency, turning a greater percentage of their chances into goals.
Despite taking over 11 shots per match, Auxerre have struggled to be precise, trailing Monaco’s efficiency significantly.
Offensive Output: Average Goals per Game
Comparing the scoring reliability of both top-flight sides in Ligue 1 this season.
Les Monegasques have maintained a strong scoring rhythm, producing nearly double the output of the hosts.
Auxerre’s offensive numbers suggest a reliance on structure, often struggling to reach multiple goals in a game.
Can Auxerre’s compact approach blunt Monaco’s attacking intent in the Coupe de France?
caught out 1–0 by Dunkerque at the same stage, while Les Monegasques exited in the round of 32 after a penalty defeat to Reims. That context matters because it sharpens the edges. Cup football has a habit of exposing nerves and rewarding clarity, especially when league form offers mixed messages. Auxerre sit 16th in Ligue 1 after 16 matches, while Monaco are ninth having played the same number. The league table tells one story; the cup tells another. This is a one-off evening where momentum, selection choices and in-game management can outweigh the slow grind of league weeks.
There is also familiarity. The sides met earlier in the Ligue 1 season at this ground, with Monaco leaving Auxerre with a 2–1 win. It does not guarantee a repeat, but it frames the tactical questions that will resurface: how Auxerre create enough threat without over-exposing themselves, and how Monaco balance their attacking ambition with defensive control away from home. With probable line-ups on the table for both coaches, this tie invites a closer look at how it might be played rather than how it might end. The details matter here. The cup rarely rewards the vague.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Auxerre are expected to line up with De Percin in goal; a back four of Sy, Legros, Diomande and Oppegard; Diousse anchoring midfield behind Danois and Devernois; and a front three of Sinayoko, Mara and L. Coulibaly. That shape points towards a compact 4-3-3, with a single holding midfielder and two interiors asked to shuttle and support.
Monaco’s likely XI features Lienard in goal; Henrique, Salisu, Kehrer and Ouattara across the back; M. Coulibaly and Bamba as a central pairing; Brunner, Minamino and Idumbo operating behind Ilenikhena. On paper, it reads as a flexible 4-2-3-1 that can tilt into a 4-3-3 when pressing or attacking sustained phases.
The balance of these selections hints at the game’s early rhythm. Auxerre’s midfield triangle suggests caution first, progression second. Monaco’s double pivot and advanced line of three point towards territorial ambition, particularly through the half-spaces occupied by Minamino and Idumbo.
How the Match Could Be Played
Auxerre’s first task will be to manage space rather than dominate it. With Diousse sitting, the priority is likely to be screening passes into Minamino between the lines and preventing clean receptions that allow Monaco to face goal. Danois and Devernois are then tasked with timing their presses, stepping out only when the trigger is clear, otherwise keeping the midfield block narrow.
In possession, Auxerre may look to build patiently through the full-backs, with Oppegard and Sy offering width while the front three rotate. Sinayoko’s role is pivotal. Listed wide, he has been Auxerre’s most productive scorer this season and will be expected to carry the ball into the final third, either driving inside or combining with Mara centrally. L. Coulibaly’s positioning on the opposite flank provides balance and a second-phase option rather than a constant outlet.
Monaco, by contrast, are set up to control territory. Henrique and Ouattara can push on, allowing Brunner and Idumbo to drift inside and overload central lanes. The presence of M. Coulibaly and Bamba behind them gives Monaco the platform to recycle possession and counter-press quickly when moves break down.
The pressing battle could define the opening half. Monaco’s front four are positioned to engage Auxerre’s build-up early, funnelling play wide and forcing longer passes. Auxerre’s response may be to bypass that press altogether, looking early for Mara or Sinayoko and trusting the midfield to arrive underneath for second balls.
Transitions will matter. Auxerre’s defensive numbers suggest they are most vulnerable when stretched, particularly away from home, but even at the Abbé-Deschamps they concede regularly once games open up. Monaco’s attacking shape is designed to exploit those moments, with runners arriving from deep and the striker occupying centre-backs to create lanes.
Set-pieces are another quiet subplot. Auxerre have conceded just one penalty in the league season so far, while Monaco have both won and conceded four. Discipline in the box, therefore, becomes a non-negotiable for the hosts.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Auxerre’s league campaign shows an average of 0.88 goals scored per match and 1.56 conceded. That combination explains why control without cutting edge has been a recurring theme. They take 11.31 shots per match, but an eight per cent conversion rate underlines the difficulty they have turning possession into goals. Against a Monaco side that allow chances but punish mistakes, efficiency matters more than volume.
Monaco, meanwhile, average 1.63 goals scored per league game and concede 1.69. Their matches carry a higher overall goal average at 3.31, reflecting an approach that favours assertiveness over restraint. They take 12.88 shots per match with a 13 per cent conversion rate, suggesting that when opportunities arise, they are more likely to make them count.
Possession figures also frame the likely flow. Auxerre average 44 per cent possession, Monaco 54 per cent. That gap hints at a pattern where Auxerre are asked to defend for spells and choose their moments, while Monaco attempt to dictate tempo through sustained phases in the opposition half.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first quarter of the match could be decisive in setting tone. Auxerre draw 75 per cent of their first-10-minute league segments, indicating a tendency to settle before committing. Monaco, by contrast, score 19 per cent of their goals in the opening ten minutes. If Monaco impose themselves early, Auxerre’s plan may need adjusting sooner than intended.
Watch the duel between Sinayoko and Kehrer closely. Sinayoko’s six league goals make him Auxerre’s standout threat, and how Monaco’s back line manage his movement will influence Auxerre’s belief. At the other end, Minamino’s positioning between midfield and defence is a constant test of communication for Auxerre’s centre-backs and holding midfielder.
There is also the question of game state. Auxerre have kept clean sheets in 19 per cent of their league matches, Monaco in 13 per cent. Neither side is built around shutting games down completely, which raises the likelihood of momentum swings as legs tire and spaces appear.
What could go wrong with this read? Cup football compresses margins. An early goal can distort even the clearest tactical plan, and both sides have shown vulnerabilities after conceding. A moment of individual brilliance or error can rewrite the narrative quickly, especially when teams are navigating unfamiliar emotional rhythms outside the league routine.
Best Bet for Auxerre vs Monaco
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Monaco to Win
Monaco enter this Coupe de France tie as the statistically superior force, particularly when considering their clinical nature in the final third. They average 1.63 goals scored per league game compared to Auxerre’s 0.88, a disparity driven by a 13 per cent conversion rate that nearly doubles that of the hosts. While Monaco have shown some defensive vulnerability, conceding 1.69 per match, their aggressive tactical set-up allows them to dominate territory. With an average of 54 per cent possession and nearly 13 shots per game, they are built to keep opponents under constant pressure.
History also heavily favors the visitors in this specific match-up. Monaco have already secured a 2–1 victory at the Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps earlier this season and have a dominant head-to-head record, winning eight of the last nine meetings between these two clubs. Furthermore, Monaco’s consistency in the early rounds of this competition is notable; they have advanced from their previous 10 round of 64 ties when playing as the visiting side. Auxerre’s struggles at the other end are reflected in their eight per cent conversion rate and a league record where they sit 16th, seven places below Monaco. Given that Monaco also find the net early—scoring nearly a fifth of their goals in the opening ten minutes—they are well-equipped to disrupt Auxerre’s defensive block and secure qualification in normal time.
What could go wrong Monaco have struggled with consistency away from home recently, failing to win in four consecutive competitive matches on the road. If Auxerre can withstand the early pressure and exploit the space Monaco leave in transition—led by their top scorer Lassine Sinayoko—they could frustrate the visitors. Additionally, Monaco’s high penalty concession rate (four won, four conceded) remains a vulnerability that a disciplined Auxerre side could capitalize on during a cagey cup tie.
Correct Score Lean
Auxerre 1-2 Monaco
Rationale The most likely scoreline for a Monaco victory aligns with the previous meeting between these sides at this venue, which ended 2–1 in Monaco’s favor. Statistically, Monaco average 1.63 goals per game while Auxerre score 0.88, suggesting both sides are likely to find the net, especially given that Monaco have kept clean sheets in only 13 per cent of their league matches. Monaco’s 13 per cent shot conversion and high shot volume (12.88 per game) should see them score twice, while Auxerre’s home advantage and Sinayoko’s current form (six goals) provide a high probability of a consolation or opening goal for the hosts.
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