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Can Napoli’s wing-backs tilt the Supercoppa final, or will Bologna’s wide threat bite back? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Napoli are the seasoned veterans of major finals and enters this clash following a dominant 2-0 semi-final win over AC Milan. They possess a superior attacking volume, averaging 12.67 shots per match with a 12% conversion rate. While Bologna are excellent defensively, their exhaustion from a penalty shootout against Inter and their streak of conceding first in six straight matches are major concerns. Napoli’s ability to control 57% of possession and their tactical versatility under Antonio Conte make them the likely victors at Al-Awwal Park.
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This scoreline reflects the near-identical defensive statistics of both finalists. Both teams concede only 0.87 goals per match and boast very similar xGA numbers (1.14 vs 1.12). Napoli have seen under 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 12 matches, while Bologna’s semi-final also ended in a 1-1 stalemate against Inter. Given the high stakes of a trophy being on the line and the teams' tendency to score more frequently in the second half, a cagey regulation-time draw is statistically the most probable outcome before the depth of the squads is tested in extra time.
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Napoli vs Bologna Predictions and Best Bets
Napoli vs Bologna — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below reflects probabilities calculated from the listed odds for this cup final.
Napoli arrive as 1/1 favourites in regular time, though Bologna’s resilience makes the draw a significant illustrative outcome.
Illustrative probabilities based on 1.14 and 1.12 xGA profiles point toward narrow margins at Al-Awwal Park.
- Napoli and Bologna have both conceded 13 goals in 15 Serie A matches, averaging 0.87 conceded per game each, which hints at a final shaped by fine margins rather than defensive chaos.
- Napoli average 57% possession and 12.67 shots per match, while Bologna also average 57% possession but take 13.67 shots per match, suggesting long spells of control could still end with plenty of attempts.
- Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini has 6 Serie A goals, while Napoli’s listed top scorers include Kevin De Bruyne, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Rasmus Højlund on 4 each, underlining multiple finishing routes on both sides.
Defensive Metrics: Season Average Conceded
Both finalists share an identical defensive record heading into the Supercoppa, reflecting the disciplined backlines that secured their domestic success.
An xGA profile of 1.14 highlights Napoli’s ability to limit high-quality chances.
Bologna’s defensive structure results in a nearly mirrored 1.12 xGA profile.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
While Napoli focus on controlled pressure, Bologna have slightly higher shot volume metrics throughout their league campaign.
Conversion rate of 12% ensures Napoli remain efficient with their territory dominance.
Raw goals of 23 to Napoli’s 22 suggest Bologna are clinical when finding sights of goal.
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The Supercoppa Italiana is on the line in Riyadh on Monday, with Al-Awwal Park set to stage a final that carries a bit of bite. Napoli arrive as Scudetto holders, Bologna as cup winners, and both have already taken the scenic route by eliminating the Milan clubs to reach this decider.
It’s a meeting that doesn’t need dressing up: two sides who’ve shown they can handle big nights, now asked to do it again when there’s a trophy waiting at the end. And because it’s a one-off final, the usual comforts of routine go out the window. Momentum matters, but so do nerves, game states, and those tiny moments when a clearance becomes a counter, or a half-chance becomes a problem.
The likely set-ups suggest contrast, too. Napoli look poised to lean into a back three with wing-backs and two forwards, while Bologna’s probable XI points to a back four with a line of three behind a central striker. That’s a classic clash of shapes: width and rotations versus structure and coverage. If the teams play anything like the line-ups hint, the match could swing on which side controls the wide lanes and who wins the battles around the second ball when attacks break down.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Napoli’s possible starting lineup is: Milinkovic-Savic; Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Lang, Neres; Hojlund.
That reads like a 3-4-2-1 (or 3-4-1-2, depending on how aggressively the two creators step up). With Di Lorenzo and Spinazzola as wing-backs, the width is built in. Lobotka and McTominay give a clear midfield axis: one to knit play together, one to add force, tempo, and forward running. Then Lang and Neres can play as the connectors—receiving between lines, sliding passes into the box, or driving at full-backs—while Hojlund leads the line.
Bologna’s possible starting lineup is: Ravaglia; Holm, Lucumi, Heggem, Miranda; Moro, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Castro.
That suggests a 4-2-3-1. The double pivot of Moro and Ferguson should help Bologna protect the centre and choose when to step out and press. The three behind the striker are clearly defined: Orsolini and Cambiaghi provide the wide threat, Odgaard looks the natural link player, and Castro is the reference point up top.
On paper, Napoli’s selection hints at heavier occupation of the wing-back corridors and more bodies close to the penalty area. Bologna’s looks like a side ready to keep its lines compact, then break with speed and purpose through the wide attackers.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Napoli do line up with a back three, their first question is simple: can they stretch Bologna’s back four early and force it to defend facing its own goal? With wing-backs high, Napoli can pin Bologna’s full-backs and try to create 2v1s out wide—particularly if Lang or Neres drift to overload a side. That’s where the timing matters. If Napoli’s wide combinations click, Bologna’s double pivot might get pulled into uncomfortable choices: help the full-back, or hold the middle.
Bologna’s likely response is to protect the central lane and make Napoli go the long way round. With Moro and Ferguson sitting in front of the centre-backs, Napoli may find the direct route into Hojlund crowded. That nudges Napoli towards cut-backs and second-phase attacks: recycle, reset, and attack the box again with better angles.
Out of possession, Napoli’s shape could allow them to press with clear triggers. A back three gives security behind an aggressive wing-back step, and it also allows a centre-back to shuffle wide if a wing-back gets dragged upfield. The tension comes if Bologna can play through that first wave. With Orsolini and Cambiaghi starting wide, Bologna’s best moments may come when they can receive early and run at a retreating wing-back, or when Odgaard finds pockets to turn and slide passes into Castro.
Transitions feel pivotal. Napoli have the personnel to counter-press: McTominay can hunt second balls, Lobotka can tidy up and restart, and the wing-backs can lock the ball in. Bologna, though, look built to survive a spell, then spring forward. If Napoli commit both wing-backs high at the same time, Bologna’s wide players could become the release valve—especially if Bologna can angle play quickly from one side to the other and catch Napoli’s back line shifting.
Then there’s the box. Napoli’s likely front set-up suggests they can populate the area: Hojlund as the target, plus Lang and Neres arriving off him. Bologna will want their centre-backs—Lucumi and Heggem—to win first contacts and keep Napoli chasing scraps rather than clean looks. The flip side is Bologna’s own attacking pattern: if Castro pins a centre-back, it can open a lane for Odgaard to arrive late, or for a wide runner to slip inside.
In a final, rhythm can change quickly. A fast Napoli start could trap Bologna deep, turning the match into waves of pressure and repeated deliveries into the area. A calmer opening, or an early Bologna spell of possession, could instead make it a tactical arm-wrestle—midfield duels, careful build-up, and both teams waiting for the first mistake that feels bigger than usual because silverware is attached.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Napoli sit third in Serie A with 31 points from 15 matches, having won 10, drawn 1, and lost 4. That matters because it frames them as a side used to winning more often than not, and their profile hints at control: 57% average possession and 12.67 shots per match. In practical terms, that points towards Napoli spending plenty of time in Bologna’s half, trying to build sustained pressure rather than relying on one big moment.
Bologna are sixth in Serie A with 25 points from 15 matches, built on 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats. Their attacking numbers are slightly punchier in raw goals: 23 scored to Napoli’s 22, and they average 13.67 shots per match. That suggests Bologna won’t be shy about pulling the trigger, and it supports the idea of them being dangerous when they do get into the final third—particularly if Napoli’s wing-backs leave space to attack quickly.
Defensively, this is where it gets interesting: both sides have conceded 13 goals in the league, and both average 0.87 conceded per match. So this isn’t a simple “attack versus defence” story. It’s more about how each side concedes, and whether the final’s game state forces them into risks they’d rather avoid.
The expected-goals numbers lean towards a match with chances at both ends if patterns open up. Napoli’s xG for per match is 1.49, with xG against 1.14. Bologna’s xG for is 1.47, and xG against 1.12. Those are remarkably close profiles: both teams create at a similar level, and both limit opponents to a similar level. In a one-off final, that closeness increases the importance of small details—who turns pressure into a clear sight of goal, who keeps their shape in the five seconds after losing the ball, who wins the penalty-area duel when it really matters.
There’s also a clue in the timing: Napoli average 0.67 goals in the first half and 0.80 in the second, while Bologna average 0.60 in the first half and 0.93 in the second. That nudges the expectation towards a match that may grow into itself, with Bologna in particular doing more of their scoring after the break.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment type to watch is the wide overload. If Di Lorenzo and Spinazzola can get high and receive cleanly, Napoli can force Bologna’s wingers to defend deeper than they want, which in turn can blunt Bologna’s counter threat. But if Bologna can trap those wing-backs near the touchline and win the ball, the first pass into Orsolini or Cambiaghi could instantly change the temperature of the match.
Another is the battle around the box between Napoli’s creators and Bologna’s screen. If Lang and Neres find space between Bologna’s midfield and defence, Napoli can turn possession into proper chances rather than hopeful deliveries. Bologna’s hope is that Moro and Ferguson keep that central zone crowded, forcing Napoli wide and making the final third predictable.
Keep an eye, too, on finishing touch and volume. Napoli score 1.47 goals per match from 12.67 shots, with a 12% conversion rate. Bologna score 1.53 per match from 13.67 shots, with an 11% conversion rate. Those numbers hint at two sides who generate opportunities through repetition. In a final, the danger is that you don’t always get your usual number of looks—so the team that stays patient when the first few shots don’t land can gain an edge simply by not panicking.
And there’s a very specific individual thread: Napoli’s listed top scorers in Serie A include Kevin De Bruyne (4), André-Frank Zambo Anguissa (4) and Rasmus Højlund (4), with David Neres (3) also prominent. Bologna’s leading scorer is Riccardo Orsolini (6), with Santiago Thomas Castro (4) and Jens Odgaard (3) behind him. If the match becomes tight, it often comes down to who has a player capable of turning one decent moment into a decisive one.
What could go wrong with this read? Finals have a habit of tearing up the script. An early goal can flip the tactical picture completely: the side chasing takes risks it didn’t plan for, the side leading gets more conservative than usual, and the game becomes about managing pressure rather than imposing patterns. With the two teams’ defensive numbers so closely matched, a single error, deflection, or lapse in marking can end up being the loudest “tactical” factor of all.
Best Bet for Napoli vs Bologna
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Napoli to Lift the Trophy
This Supercoppa Italiana final pits the reigning Scudetto holders against the copper-tinged resurgence of Vincenzo Italiano’s Bologna. While the Rossoblù have been incredibly stubborn opponents recently—unbeaten in five of their last six head-to-heads with the Partenopei—the nature of a neutral-site final in Riyadh tends to favor the side with greater individual depth and elite-game experience. Napoli arrive having dismantled AC Milan with a routine 2-0 victory in the semi-final, a performance that highlighted their ability to manage a high-stakes bracket game. In that fixture, David Neres and Rasmus Højlund demonstrated the clinical edge that separate top-tier sides from their peers, scoring precisely when momentum was balanced.
Bologna’s path to the final was significantly more exhausting, requiring a penalty shootout to edge past Inter Milan after a 1-1 draw. While they have proven they can frustrate the elite, their scoring relies heavily on Riccardo Orsolini, who has accounted for six of their league goals this season. Statistically, Napoli’s control is superior; they average 57% possession and generate 1.49 xG per match, suggesting they will dominate the territory at Al-Awwal Park. Bologna’s defensive record is identical to Napoli’s in terms of goals conceded (0.87 per match), but they have shown a tendency to concede first in six consecutive matches. Against a Napoli side that has won 10 of their 15 league outings and thrives when playing with a lead, allowing the first goal could be catastrophic for the Rossoblù.
Antonio Conte’s tactical setup, leaning into a back three with elite wing-backs like Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Leonardo Spinazzola, is specifically designed to stretch compact defenses. Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 structure will be tested laterally, and with Napoli scoring roughly every 60 minutes, the pressure should eventually tell. Given Napoli’s recent success in neutral cup environments and their superior squad depth, they are the most justified selection to emerge as champions.
What could go wrong One-off finals are notoriously susceptible to early red cards or individual errors. Bologna’s high-intensity pressing leads the league in interruptions of opposition moves, and if they can disrupt Stanislav Lobotka’s rhythm, Napoli’s supply line to Højlund could be severed. Furthermore, Bologna have already beaten Napoli 2-0 in Serie A this season, proving that their tactical structure can blunt the champions if Riccardo Orsolini or Jens Odgaard find space in transition.
Correct score lean
1-1 (Napoli to win in extra time or on penalties)
A 1-1 draw in regulation is highly consistent with the defensive profiles of both clubs. Both sides allow exactly 0.87 goals per match, and their expected goals against (xGA) figures are nearly mirrored at 1.14 for Napoli and 1.12 for Bologna. Historically, ten of Napoli’s last 12 encounters have featured under 2.5 goals, while Bologna have made a habit of late equalizers, evidenced by their scoring average rising from 0.60 in the first half to 0.93 in the second. With neither team likely to commit excessive risks in a final, a tactical stalemate followed by Napoli’s superior depth prevailing late is the most logical narrative.
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