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Can Fiorentina steady the ship at home, or do Como’s high-flying habits travel into the cup? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Como enter this cup tie in superior form, winning four of their last six matches. Their 61.3% possession and 86.8% pass accuracy allow them to control games, exposing a Fiorentina side that has conceded 15 goals in eight games when using their standard 3-5-2 formation.
Read Rationale ▾
Como average 1.68 goals per game and possess superior creative metrics. While Fiorentina often score at home, their defensive fragility and inability to protect leads make a narrow 2-1 defeat likely against a Como side that excels in game management and through-ball execution.
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Fiorentina vs Como Predictions and Best Bets
Fiorentina vs Como — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Key markets and illustrative probabilities based on current match pricing.
Pricing indicates Como as the more likely victors, reflecting their superior recent form and tactical efficiency.
- Contrasting Momentum: Fiorentina arrive having taken points in four of their last six league matches, yet they remain in the drop zone, while Como have won four of their last six and are pushing towards European places.
- Control vs Chaos: Como average 61.3% possession in Serie A with an 86.8% pass success, a sharp contrast to Fiorentina’s 53.1% possession, hinting at very different rhythms on the pitch.
- Defensive Fragility: Fiorentina have conceded 15 goals in eight matches when using their most common 3-5-2 setup, underlining why protecting a lead has been such a recurring issue.
Match Control: Possession %
Como’s tactical approach under Fàbregas prioritises high volume of possession and ball retention compared to the home side.
Focus on wing-play and crossing volume rather than sustained central control.
Driven by an 86.8% pass success rate to dictate the tempo of play.
Scoring Reliability: Total League Goals
Comparison of pure goal output across the current season for both clubs.
Averaging 1.09 goals per match despite taking 13.7 shots per game.
A significantly higher conversion rate, averaging 1.68 goals per match.
A Coppa Italia last-16 tie under the lights in Florence brings pressure, promise, and a clear sense of contrast. Fiorentina host Como at 20:00 knowing this competition offers a rare change of tone in a season spent scrapping near the bottom of Serie A. Paolo Vanoli’s side have shown fight since the turn of the year, edging away from the foot of the table, but the scars of inconsistency remain visible.
For Como, the mood could hardly be more different. Cesc Fàbregas has overseen a vibrant run of results, blending control with incision as his team chase a place in Europe. A quarter-final against Napoli awaits the winner, adding extra edge to a fixture that already feels like a referendum on direction. Is Fiorentina’s revival real, or are Como about to expose the cracks again?
Team News & Lineups
Fiorentina
- No confirmed injuries or suspensions listed.
- Probable XI: De Gea; Kouadio, Pongracic, Ranieri, Fortini; Mandragora, Nicolussi Caviglia; Solomon, Brescianini, Harrison; Piccoli.
- Implication: The familiar back three offers continuity, but the lack of aerial dominance and issues defending wide areas remain a concern.
Como
- No confirmed injuries or suspensions listed.
- Probable XI: Butez; Van der Brempt, Carlos, Ramón, Moreno; Caqueret, Da Cunha; Kühn, Baturina, Addai; Rodríguez.
- Implication: The 4-2-3-1 shape keeps Como flexible, with creative freedom behind the striker and protection through the middle.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | Fiorentina | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 22 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 24 | 37 |
| Shots per Game | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Possession % | 53.1% | 61.3% |
| Pass Accuracy % | 84.4% | 86.8% |
| Average Rating | 6.48 | 6.74 |
The numbers paint a clear picture. Como see more of the ball, move it cleaner, and turn pressure into goals more efficiently. Fiorentina shoot almost as often, but their problems finishing chances and protecting leads tilt the balance of control away from them.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Fiorentina: Urgency, Width, and Risk
Paolo Vanoli’s Fiorentina are built to attack. They push down the wings, attempt crosses often, and look to slide runners through with quick vertical passes. Mandragora, their top scorer with six league goals, is central to that plan, arriving late and setting the tempo.
The issue is what happens after possession is lost. Fiorentina struggle badly against through balls, long shots, and wide attacks. Their back line can be dragged out of shape, and aerial duels are not a strength. When they lead, anxiety creeps in. Protecting that advantage has been a persistent problem, and opponents sense it.
At home, the Viola are likely to start fast. Expect early pressure, wing-backs pushing high, and a desire to force mistakes. The danger is over-commitment. One loose pass in midfield can open them up.
Como: Control with a Knife Edge
Cesc Fàbregas has drilled his side in possession football with purpose. Como attack through the middle, play short passes, and wait patiently before accelerating. Nico Paz, with 8 goals and 6 assists, is the heartbeat, linking midfield and attack while carrying a serious long-shot threat.
They are comfortable rotating their first eleven, but the structure rarely wobbles. The double pivot of Caqueret and Da Cunha gives balance, allowing full-backs to step on when space opens. Through balls are a major weapon, especially against teams that defend narrow or step out too late.
Defensively, Como are not flawless. They can allow chances, and aggressive pressing carries risk. But unlike Fiorentina, they are strong at protecting a lead, managing tempo and closing matches down with control rather than panic.
Where It Tilts
This game likely swings in midfield. Fiorentina want vertical chaos; Como want measured control. If Como dominate possession, Fiorentina will be forced into chasing shadows, exposing exactly the weaknesses they struggle most with. If Fiorentina disrupt the rhythm early, the crowd can drag them into a scrap that suits urgency over structure.
Key Moments to Watch
- Through Balls vs Back Three: Como’s creativity against Fiorentina’s vulnerability to runners in behind could decide the night.
- Set Pieces: Fiorentina are weak defending them, while Como are very strong from direct free kicks.
- Game Management Late On: If Fiorentina lead, nerves will be tested. If Como lead, they have shown they can protect it.
What could go wrong?
For Fiorentina, an early concession could unravel confidence quickly. For Como, overplaying in deep areas could invite pressure they don’t need. Fine margins, heavy consequences.
Best Bet for Fiorentina vs Como
Can Fiorentina find their spark at the Artemio Franchi, or will Como’s clinical possession game secure their passage to the quarter-finals?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Form | Como 4 wins in 6; Fio 4 games with pts | Como to Win |
| Attack | Como 37 goals; Fiorentina 24 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | Fio conceded 15 in 8 with 3-5-2 | Away Over 1.5 |
Como to Win
Como enter this Coppa Italia clash as the side with the definitive tactical advantage and superior momentum. While Fiorentina are fighting for survival at the bottom of the league, Como are currently pushing for European qualification. This gulf in confidence is reflected in their recent results; Como have secured victories in four of their last six matches, whereas Fiorentina’s consistency remains elusive.
The statistical profiles of these two teams highlight a significant mismatch in control. Como average 61.3% possession with a pass success rate of 86.8%. This level of technical security means they are equipped to starve Fiorentina of the ball and dictate the tempo. In contrast, Fiorentina maintain 53.1% possession and have shown a repeated inability to protect leads. This psychological fragility is a major concern in a knockout format where game management is paramount.
Tactically, the match plays directly into Como’s strengths. Fiorentina have conceded 15 goals in just eight matches when utilizing their 3-5-2 system. This setup has left them vulnerable to through balls and wide attacks—the exact areas where Como excel. Nico Paz, who has contributed 8 goals and 6 assists this season, provides the creative spark to exploit these gaps.
Furthermore, Fiorentina struggle with aerial duels and defending set pieces. Como are notably strong from direct free kicks and possess the clinical edge required to punish a defensive line that is frequently dragged out of shape. Given Fiorentina’s struggles in transition and Como’s proficiency in maintaining rhythm, the away side is the authoritative choice to win within 90 minutes.
What could go wrong? Fiorentina’s survival instincts often translate into high-intensity starts. If the home side manages to disrupt Como’s rhythm with aggressive early pressing and scores first, the atmosphere in Florence could carry them through. Additionally, if Como overplay in their own defensive third, they may gift Fiorentina the vertical transition opportunities they crave.
Correct Score Lean
Fiorentina 1-2 Como
This scoreline aligns with the tactical realities of both squads. Fiorentina possess enough attacking intent to find the net, especially given their 13.7 shots per game and the high wing-back positioning encouraged by Vanoli. However, Como’s superior offensive efficiency—scoring 37 goals compared to Fiorentina’s 24—suggests they will outscore their hosts. Como’s ability to use through balls against a back three that has conceded nearly two goals per game in that formation makes two goals a realistic expectation for the visitors, while their superior game management should see them hold onto a narrow lead.
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