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Atalanta BC vs Genoa predictions for Wednesday’s Coppa Italia match. The Coppa Italia often feels like Italian football’s truth serum. Teams can talk about long-term projects, rotations and development all they like, but when a last-16 tie lands under the floodlights, everything suddenly becomes very real. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Atalanta enter this Coppa Italia tie rejuvenated, having beaten Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 and Fiorentina 2-0 in successive matches. Their attack, led by an in-form Ademola Lookman and supported by Samardzic and Krstovic, is creating regular chances, while the defence has delivered two straight clean sheets. Genoa, although unbeaten in four, remain vulnerable at the back and have not kept a clean sheet in six games. They are competitive enough to make it a contest, but their defensive issues and Atalanta’s superior momentum strongly point towards a home win in a match that produces at least a couple of goals.
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A 3-1 home victory aligns with the current profiles of both sides. Atalanta have found attacking rhythm, scoring five across their last two matches, and possess several threats in Lookman, Samardzic and Krstovic. Genoa’s recent unbeaten run suggests they can still trouble the scoreboard, especially with Ostigard, Colombo and Vitinha offering different routes to goal. However, their failure to record a clean sheet in six straight games and their ongoing defensive issues make it hard to envisage them keeping La Dea quiet for 90 minutes. A comfortable but not one-sided 3-1 home win looks a realistic and well-balanced outcome.
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- Atalanta have responded to their defeat against Napoli with back-to-back wins over Eintracht Frankfurt and Fiorentina, scoring five times and keeping clean sheets in both, underlining a sharp upswing in performance.
- Genoa are unbeaten in four matches in all competitions, yet they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last six outings, exposing lingering defensive fragility despite improved results.
- Leo Ostigard leads Genoa’s scoring charts with three goals, but Atalanta’s in-form Ademola Lookman, with two goals and an assist in his last two, looks the more decisive attacking weapon on this stage.
Will Atalanta’s Revival Be Too Strong for Genoa in This Coppa Italia Clash?
Atalanta are discovering that sensation all over again as they welcome Genoa to the New Balance Arena, buoyed by a new coach, fresh ideas and, crucially, a pair of confidence-building victories. Raffaele Palladino has not needed long to put his stamp on La Dea. After an opening setback away to Napoli, Atalanta have responded with a 3-0 dismantling of Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League and a composed 2-0 success over Fiorentina in Serie A. Clean sheets in both, five goals scored, and an attacking structure that looks far more coherent than the stuttering early weeks of the season. The supporters in Bergamo, who had grown used to turbulence, finally see an upward curve again.
Genoa Arrive with Belief but Defensive Baggage
On the opposite bench, Daniele De Rossi leads a Genoa side who are also trying to write a new chapter. The Rossoblu are unbeaten in four matches in all competitions, and that run includes a gritty 2-1 turnaround victory over Hellas Verona which delivered De Rossi’s first Serie A win in charge. There is a sense that Genoa are slowly shaking off their early-season anxiety and rediscovering their personality.
However, there is an obvious caveat. Genoa’s back line has not kept a clean sheet in six games, with their last shutout dating back to a goalless draw with Parma. Even during this improved spell, they are still conceding, and that matters enormously against an Atalanta attack suddenly re-energised. For a side dreaming of a third Coppa Italia triumph, allowing cheap goals is a very dangerous habit.
Key Players and Tactical Threads to Watch
Ademola Lookman is the most compelling storyline in Atalanta colours right now. After friction with Ivan Juric and talk of wanting to move on again, he has flicked back into form at exactly the right moment. Across Atalanta’s last two matches, Lookman has produced two goals and an assist, and he appears liberated under Palladino, attacking with the kind of freedom that made him so important previously.
Behind him, the projected structure is strong. Marco Carnesecchi anchors the team from goal, with Berat Djimsiti, Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou expected to form a back three that combines aggression and recovery pace. On the flanks, Raoul Bellanova and Davide Zappacosta bring energy and width, while Ederson and Marten de Roon patrol midfield with a blend of tackling, pressing and simple distribution. Further forward, Lazar Samardzic and Nikola Krstovic may enter the starting XI, giving Atalanta extra creativity and penalty-box presence alongside Lookman. It is a line-up that screams balance: solid behind, dangerous ahead.
Genoa have their own weapons. Leo Ostigard has become an unlikely scoring talisman, with a remarkable three-match scoring streak recently making him the club’s top scorer in all competitions on three goals. Lorenzo Colombo, Morten Thorsby and Jeff Ekhator sit just behind him on two goals each, suggesting that the Rossoblu can threaten from multiple areas rather than relying on one star. In possession, the likely XI of Nicola Leali in goal, a back three of Alessandro Marcandalli, Ostigard and Johan Vazquez, and a hard-working midfield of Mikael Egill Ellertsson, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Morten Frendrup, Thorsby and Aaron Martin should give Genoa a compact, combative shape. Up front, Colombo and Vitinha can run channels and contest everything.
Yet there are issues that cannot be ignored. Junior Messias and Maxwel Cornet remain unavailable, reducing Genoa’s variety in wide and attacking zones. Hugo Cuenca is also out. That means more minutes for the existing group and less ability for De Rossi to change games from the bench.
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Form Lines, Mentality Swings and Cup Context
Atalanta’s recent form graph shows L, W, L, L, W, W, which looks erratic at first glance. But the important detail is that the last two performances have been dominant and controlled. For the first time this season, La Dea have strung together back-to-back wins in all competitions, and both came with clean sheets. That combination of attacking sharpness and defensive security is exactly what cup contenders need at this stage.
Genoa’s sequence of L, L, W, D, D, W paints a different picture: a side that has stabilised after a bad run, but who still leak chances and require late resilience. Their 3-0 and 3-1 Coppa Italia wins over Vicenza and Empoli showed offensive efficiency, but the league numbers tell another story: no clean sheets in six and a reliance on set-piece and opportunistic moments. You could argue that Genoa are the kind of side who play well enough to scare you but not always well enough to beat you.
Emotionally, this tie is rich. Atalanta are excited by Palladino’s ideas and by Lookman’s resurgence. Genoa are buoyed by De Rossi’s early impact and recent unbeaten run. But the underlying data—clean sheets, goals scored, chance creation—tilts towards the home side, especially in a knockout fixture where quality in both boxes tends to decide everything.
Best Bet for This Match
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Atalanta to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Why You Should Back This Prediction
At BettingTips4You we always narrow our work down to one primary angle per match. Out of all the markets available for Atalanta vs Genoa, this is the selection that best aligns with the underlying numbers and tactical realities. We focus on a single, clearly defined prediction because we believe in quality rather than quantity: one strong view, fully accountable, much easier for readers to follow and far simpler when it comes to tracking long-term profitability.
Atalanta come into this tie with renewed confidence. Under Raffaele Palladino they have just delivered a 3-0 away win against Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2-0 home victory over Fiorentina. Those results show not only that they are winning, but that they are consistently scoring multiple goals while defending with structure. The expected starting XI features attacking quality in Lookman, Samardzic and Krstovic, supported by adventurous wing-backs Bellanova and Zappacosta. That combination almost naturally generates chances.
Genoa are not pushovers, and their four-game unbeaten run proves it. They carry set-piece threat through Ostigard and possess industrious forwards in Colombo and Vitinha. However, their inability to keep clean sheets is a glaring problem. Six consecutive games without shutting anyone out, and a broader pattern of conceding at least once, make it difficult to trust them to resist a rejuvenated Atalanta side in Bergamo.
“ When a home team are trending upwards, scoring freely and keeping clean sheets, while the visitors are unbeaten but leaking chances, combining ‘win’ with a modest goal line is often the smartest middle ground.” – BettingTips4You.com expert quote
By pairing an Atalanta victory with Over 1.5 Goals, we avoid needing a goal glut while aligning with recent evidence: La Dea’s last two wins have already cleared that line comfortably. It strikes the right balance between realism and value.
Correct Score Prediction
Our correct score prediction is Atalanta 3–1 Genoa. Atalanta’s recent scoring surge—five goals in their last two matches—points towards them finding multiple breakthroughs, especially with Lookman in sparkling form and strong support from Samardzic and Krstovic. Genoa, meanwhile, have shown enough attacking life through Ostigard’s set-piece threat and the contributions of Colombo and Vitinha to suggest they can nick a goal, particularly if Atalanta commit numbers forward. However, the defensive leaks that have plagued the Rossoblu across six consecutive games without a clean sheet make a solid away shutout unlikely. A 3-1 scoreline fits the overall balance of attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses on both sides.
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