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Can Valencia make Mestalla roar its way into the Copa del Rey semi-finals — or will Athletic Bilbao’s shot-heavy edge land the decisive punch? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Valencia have drawn 67% of their last six home matches, establishing Mestalla as a difficult place to win. Athletic Bilbao have seen their last three away Copa del Rey fixtures end level at full-time, suggesting both teams are likely to take a cautious approach in this high-stakes quarter-final.
Read Rationale ▾
Given Valencia’s home draw trend and Athletic’s cup consistency, a 1-1 stalemate is plausible. Valencia’s wing-focused attack creates reliable chances, but Athletic’s high shot volume and defensive vulnerabilities often result in both sides hitting the net without finding a decisive winner in 90 minutes.
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This is a proper cup night at the Estadio de Mestalla. One fixture, one surge, one slip… and a place in the Copa del Rey final four is gone.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao — Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Valencia have drawn 67% of their last six home games, while Athletic’s cup away form heavily trends toward stalemates.
Athletic take 14.0 shots per game, but Valencia’s 83% pass accuracy and defensive control often limit scorelines at Mestalla.
Mestalla’s high draw frequency and Athletic’s 13.64 shots per match profile point toward a 1-1 outcome.
Athletic have received 7 red cards across 33 games, highlighting a disciplinary trend that could impact quarter-final intensity.
- Copa pedigree meets a single-night edge: Valencia are eight-time Copa del Rey winners, Athletic Bilbao have lifted it 24 times — and only one of them gets a semi-final ticket.
- Mestalla’s draw-trap: Valencia have drawn 67% of their last six home games, and Athletic’s last three away Copa del Rey matches have finished draws at half-time and full-time.
- Volume vs control: Athletic average 13.64 shots per game with 113.39 total attacks per match, while Valencia run at 51% possession and 83% pass accuracy — different ways to take over a fixture.
Attacking Tempo: Dangerous Attacks per Match
Athletic Bilbao sustain a higher frequency of pressure in the final third compared to Valencia’s more patient build-up.
Their aggressive style results in 113.39 total attacks, keeping opponents pinned back for long stretches.
Valencia rely on 83% pass accuracy to construct fewer but more methodical entries into the penalty area.
Defensive Volatility: Disciplinary Record
In a high-stakes cup tie, disciplinary control is often the defining factor in maintaining tactical structure.
With 73 yellow cards as well, their aggression can lead to critical numerical disadvantages in tight fixtures.
Valencia have maintained better composure, which may prove vital during the knockout intensity of Mestalla.
Match Preview
Valencia arrive needing a lift after a 2-1 defeat to Real Betis, a result that leaves them 15th in La Liga, only two points outside the relegation zone. The cup, right now, is the cleanest escape route from the weekly grind.
Athletic Bilbao turn up with their own wobble: three losses in their last six across competitions and an away record that can bite back. But they’ve got recent edge in this pairing — they’ve won two of the last three meetings, and they’ve already shown in this round before, knocking Valencia out 3-1 at the quarter-final stage back in January 2023. Kick-off is 20:00. Expect noise, nerves, and a match that swings on moments.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Valencia Team News
- Julen Agirrezabala (GK) — muscle injury
- Eray Cömert (D) — unknown injury
- Mouctar Diakhaby (D) — muscle injury (out until 30.06.2026)
- Javi Guerra Moreno (M) — flu
Athletic Bilbao Team News
Athletic Bilbao: No absentees listed.
Probable Lineups
Valencia (possible XI): Dimitrievski; Foulquier, Comert, Tarrega, Gaya; Rioja, Santamaria, Pepelu, Danjuma; Almeida; Sadiq
Athletic Bilbao (possible XI): Padilla; Areso, Paredes, Lekue, Boiro; Vesga, Ruiz de Galarreta; I Williams, Gomez, Berenguer; Guruzeta
Tactical Selection Analysis
If Cömert misses out, Valencia’s centre-back options look thinner immediately, and that matters against a side that takes a lot of shots and attacks in waves.
Athletic’s likely front four has runners everywhere — Iñaki Williams stretching, Berenguer knitting play, and Guruzeta looking to finish moves. Valencia’s offside trap has to be sharp, or it becomes a gamble.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Valencia | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| League goals (22 apps) | 23 | 21 |
| Shots per game (League) | 11.5 | 14.0 |
| Shots per game (recent) | 12.12 | 13.64 |
| Possession | 51% | 46% |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 79% |
| Clean sheets | 8 (26 games) | 8 (33 games) |
| Red cards | 3 | 7 |
The table screams “styles clash”. Athletic bring the higher shot volume and heavier attacking output, while Valencia lean into ball retention and accuracy. Both sides have identical clean-sheet totals, but Athletic’s higher red-card count hints at volatility — and in a cup tie, volatility is oxygen.
Tactical Battle: Width vs Volume
Valencia: wing thrust and quick combinations
Valencia want to stretch the pitch. They play with width, and their main attacking strength is attacking down the wings. That fits the likely line-up: Luis Rioja and Arnaut Danjuma give them wide penetration, while Pepelu anchors the midfield with tidy use of the ball (and two league goals).
But there’s a clear fault line: Valencia are vulnerable defending through balls, set pieces, and long shots, and they’re not dominant in aerial duels either. That’s a risky mix against an opponent happy to cross early, shoot often, and keep the ball high up the pitch. It’s why Valencia’s press has to be aggressive without being reckless — win it high, attack fast, don’t get dragged into repeated defensive set plays.
The other question is the striker role. Umar Sadiq is named to start, but his league minutes are limited and he’s still searching for a first league goal in the appearances shown. If Valencia’s best finisher is Hugo Duro (seven league goals), they need him involved early, not watching the play drift past him.
Athletic Bilbao: shots, crosses, and chaos in the final third
Athletic’s blueprint is intense. They take a lot of shots, attempt crosses often, and they’re strong at creating chances — both through individual skill and general chance creation. The numbers back it up: 13.64 shots per game, 113.39 total attacks per match, and more dangerous attacks than Valencia (51.27 vs 42.85).
Their risk sits in two places. First, they can be weak at finishing scoring chances, so dominance doesn’t always translate to goals. Second, they’re very weak at avoiding individual errors — the sort that gifts a cup tie away. If Valencia can drag Athletic into rushed touches around the box, the door opens for a quick swing.
Watch the left-side focus too: Athletic like attacking down the left, and so do Valencia. That creates a collision zone where Gayà’s timing and Nico Williams’s direct running can define the match — one side pins the other back, and the whole shape tilts.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces under stress: Valencia’s weakness defending set pieces meets Athletic’s strength defending them — Valencia can’t rely on dead balls as a safety net, and must defend them cleanly.
- Long-shot temptation: Valencia’s vulnerability to long shots invites Athletic to pull the trigger from range, especially if Valencia sit deep and protect the box.
- Discipline and flashpoints: Athletic have seven red cards in the matches shown, and 73 yellows. In a tense quarter-final, one mistimed challenge can flip everything.
- The “draw” gravity: Valencia’s recent home run is loaded with stalemates, and Athletic’s away Copa del Rey trend has been half-time/full-time draws — if nobody lands an early punch, tension will climb fast.
Game-State Scenarios
For Valencia, the danger is getting stretched: one sloppy offside line, one set-piece lapse, one through ball, and the cup night turns into damage control. For Athletic, it’s the opposite: control the territory, miss the key chances, then hand Valencia a cheap opening through an individual error — the sort of moment that makes Mestalla feel twice as loud.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The 1X2 market is the standard way to bet on the final outcome of a match after 90 minutes. “1” represents a home win, “X” a draw, and “2” an away win. It offers a balance between probability and price, making it ideal for those who have a strong view on which side will dominate territory and game state.
Correct Score
Correct Score betting requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Because it is much harder to get right, the odds are significantly higher. It is a high-risk approach where late goals can provide extreme volatility, but it suits analysts who see specific scoreline concentration in team data.
Other opportunities in this market: Cautious bettors often look at Double Chance markets to cover two outcomes, whereas high-risk approaches favour Scorecasts. The trade-off is always between the security of the bet and the potential return margin.
🎯 Rationale: Match Result – Draw
The draw stands out as the most likely outcome at Mestalla for several compelling reasons. Valencia have developed a significant trend for stalemates on home soil, drawing 67% of their last six home matches. This suggests they have the defensive structure to avoid defeat but lack the clinical edge to secure three points consistently. Athletic Bilbao mirror this trend in knockout football; their last three away Copa del Rey fixtures have ended as draws at both half-time and full-time. In a quarter-final environment, both sides are likely to prioritise defensive security, especially given Valencia’s 83% pass accuracy which allows them to keep the ball and slow down Athletic’s transition game.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Valencia have drawn 67% of their last six matches at Mestalla.
- Athletic’s last three away Copa del Rey games ended in draws.
- Valencia’s 83% pass accuracy allows them to control match tempo.
Risk Factor: Athletic’s high volume of 13.64 shots per match could eventually break the deadlock if Valencia’s defence experiences a late lapse.
🎯 Rationale: Correct Score 1-1
A 1-1 scoreline is plausible because it respects both Valencia’s home resilience and Athletic’s offensive output. Athletic average 13.64 shots per game and 113.39 total attacks, a level of volume that historically forces at least one breakthrough even against disciplined sides. However, Athletic are also weak at avoiding individual errors, which plays directly into Valencia’s strength of attacking down the wings. With Valencia’s wingers likely to exploit Athletic’s high line, a goal for the hosts is a strong expectation. Given the identical clean-sheet records (8 each) and the high stakes, a single goal for each side followed by a defensive retreat is a common pattern for these teams in high-pressure cup nights.
Risk Factor: Valencia’s vulnerability to through balls and set pieces could lead to a second Athletic goal if the match becomes too stretched.
❓ Interactive Q&A
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