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Can Alavés keep their Copa del Rey clean-sheet streak alive — or will Real Sociedad’s firepower finally crack Mendizorroza? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Alaves have been defensively resilient in the cup with four straight clean sheets, while Real Sociedad arrive unbeaten in six league games. With both sides sitting on very similar possession stats and playing a high-stakes Basque derby, a tactical stalemate after 90 minutes is highly probable.
Read Rationale ▾
Alaves boast multiple goalscoring threats like Lucas Boye and Carlos Vicente, while Mikel Oyarzabal remains clinical for Sociedad. Given Sociedad’s weakness at defending set pieces and Alaves’ vulnerability to range shots, both teams are likely to find the net in a tightly contested 1-1 draw.
Readers’ Tip
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Basque nights in the cup don’t need selling. Estadio de Mendizorroza will be tight, loud, and edgy as Alavés and Real Sociedad scrap for a place in the Copa del Rey semi-finals.
Alaves vs Real Sociedad — Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Alaves have won 4 straight cup games with clean sheets, while Sociedad are unbeaten in 6 league matches.
Alaves have kept 4 consecutive cup clean sheets, highlighting a tactical trend of low-scoring cup fixtures at Mendizorroza.
Both teams sit on near identical possession stats (approx 51%), making a single-goal stalemate a highly concentrated outcome.
Alaves have kept clean sheets in each of their last 4 Copa del Rey matches, proving their cup resilience.
Match Preview
Alavés arrive with proper wind in their sails: a 2-1 win over Espanyol made it back-to-back league victories, and they’ve been ruthless in this tournament — four straight wins, four straight clean sheets.
Real Sociedad, though, bring a different kind of threat. They’re eighth in La Liga, only three points ahead of 10th-placed Alavés, and they’ve gone six games unbeaten in the league with three wins and three draws. Kick-off is 20:00. Expect a derby edge with a cup twist: one error, one set piece, one flash of quality… and the whole tie flips.
Quick Hits
- Cup momentum with steel: Alavés have won four straight Copa del Rey matches, stayed unbeaten in their last six in the competition, and kept clean sheets in each of their last four.
- Shot volume leans Sociedad: Real Sociedad average 13.65 shots per game to Alavés’ 11.92, and they’ve scored 39 goals in 26 matches overall while Alavés sit on 33.
- Mendizorroza has been a problem: Alavés have won three of the last six meetings across competitions and have taken the last two at home 1-0, including a league win in December 2025.
Technical Control: Pass Accuracy
Both teams rely on efficient distribution to manage the tempo, with Sociedad holding a marginal edge in league precision.
A disciplined approach in possession supports their ability to protect leads and manage matches.
Superior accuracy allows for sustained pressure and creates opportunities for range shots.
Attacking Volume: Dangerous Attacks
Sociedad sustain a higher frequency of pressure in the final third compared to Alaves’ direct, width-focused style.
Their direct nature focuses on quality wide entries rather than total volume.
A significantly higher volume of dangerous incursions drives their 13.65 shots per game profile.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries / Absences
Alavés: Antonio Sivera (GK) — unknown injury.
Real Sociedad: No absentees listed.
Probable Lineups
Alavés (possible XI): Fernandez; Tenaglia, Protesoni, Pacheco, Yusi; Calebe, Guridi, Guevara, Rebbach; Martinez, Boye
Real Sociedad (possible XI): Remiro; Aramburu, Martin, Zubeldia, Gomez; Guedes, Gorrotxategi, Soler, Marin; Oskarrson, Oyarzabal
Strategic Snapshot
If Sivera can’t go, Alavés’ base changes instantly — and that’s a big deal against a team with multiple scorers and a habit of shooting often.
Sociedad’s likely front pair of Mikel Oyarzabal and Orri Óskarsson gives them both a finisher and a runner; Alavés’ centre-backs can’t get dragged into messy channels.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Alavés | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga position | 10th | 8th |
| League goals (22 apps) | 20 | 30 |
| Shots per game (League) | 11.5 | 13.0 |
| Pass accuracy (League) | 80.7% | 82.1% |
| Clean sheets (26 games) | 7 | 3 |
This is tight on the ball — almost identical possession — but very different in the details. Sociedad carry more goal threat and higher shot volume. Alavés carry more defensive bite, and those clean sheets hint at a side that can protect a lead and manage moments.
Tactical Battle
Alavés: width, long shots, and set-piece bite
Alavés aren’t coming to trade pretty passes. Their style is direct and sharp: attack down the right, play with width, and take long shots. They’re also strong at stealing the ball and protecting the lead, which fits a cup tie perfectly — get in front, then turn the match into a grind.
The problem is what happens when Sociedad get behind them. Alavés are weak at defending counter-attacks and defending against attacks down the wings, and they’re very weak for fouling in dangerous areas. That’s danger against a team that’s strong at attacking set pieces and creating long-shot opportunities. If Alavés give away cheap free-kicks, they invite pressure in the worst places.
Going forward, Alavés have real threat. Lucas Boyé has five league goals and Toni Martínez has four, while Carlos Vicente also has five. That’s three different routes to a goal — and in a derby, you need options when space disappears.
Real Sociedad: aggression, long shots, and the Oyarzabal edge
Sociedad play with edge. They’re aggressive, strong at counter-attacks, and they love a strike from range. That’s not just “nice to have” — it’s a weapon against an opponent who can be weak defending wide attacks and transitions.
The headline, though, is Mikel Oyarzabal. Eight league goals and three assists, plus a 7.15 rating — he’s the man who decides games when the pitch gets tight. Add Gonçalo Guedes (six goals) and Brais Méndez (five), and you’ve got multiple finishers arriving into the box.
But there’s fragility too. Sociedad are weak at protecting the lead, and they’re weak defending set pieces and counter-attacks. In other words: if they switch off after scoring, Alavés have the tools — and the crowd — to drag them into a scrap.
Key Zones
This looks like a battle for the wide lanes and the second ball. Both sides sit around 51% possession in the recent match profile, so don’t expect one team to camp on the ball. Expect collisions, quick breaks, and shots from places you don’t usually see in a league fixture.
Key Moments to Watch
- Dead-ball danger: Both teams are strong from direct free-kicks, and both have issues defending set pieces. One delivery, one flick, one lapse — that’s the night.
- Discipline under derby heat: Alavés’ “very weak” tendency for fouling in dangerous areas is a flashing warning sign when Sociedad can punish from wide and central free-kick zones.
- Shots from range: Alavés like long shots and Sociedad create long-shot opportunities — if the midfield line drops even a yard, expect attempts early and often.
- Early goal timing: Alavés’ first goal tends to land around 39′, while Sociedad’s sits around 46′. If this stays level deep into the game, tension will do the rest.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Alavés, the trap is simple: defend well for 70 minutes, then gift a dangerous free-kick or lose a runner out wide and get punished. For Sociedad, it’s the opposite: take control, score first, then fail to manage the lead — exactly the kind of wobble Alavés live for in a one-off cup tie.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The Match Result market is the most common form of football wagering. It allows you to select one of three outcomes after 90 minutes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2). It is simple and high in liquidity, making it suitable for analysts who have a strong reading on the tactical balance of power.
Correct Score
Correct Score markets require the exact final scoreline to be predicted (e.g., 1-1). Due to the precise nature of the outcome, the odds are typically much higher than match result markets. While higher risk, it provides significant potential return for those identifying specific scoreline concentrations.
Other opportunities in this market: Double Chance (covering a win or draw) offers a more cautious approach at lower prices, while Scorecasts (first goalscorer and correct score) represent higher-risk volatility for those looking at specific game-state effects.
🎯 Pick 1: Alaves vs Real Sociedad – Match Result Draw
The tactical profile of this Basque derby points strongly towards a stalemate at full-time. Alaves have been exceptionally disciplined in the Copa del Rey, winning four straight matches without conceding a single goal. This defensive steel, combined with their ability to protect leads and manage match moments at Mendizorroza, makes them a difficult side to break down in knockout football. They face a Real Sociedad side currently on a six-game unbeaten run in the league, including three draws. Sociedad’s tendency to see away cup ties end level—evidenced by draws at half-time and full-time in their last three away Copa del Rey fixtures—aligns perfectly with Alaves’ resilient home form. Both managers prefer a controlled approach, with possession stats nearly identical at approximately 51%, suggesting neither side will dominate the ball sufficiently to force a decisive breakthrough over 90 minutes.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Alaves have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets in the Copa del Rey.
- Real Sociedad’s last 3 away cup games were draws at half-time and full-time.
- Both teams possess identical recent possession profiles of 51%.
Risk Factor: Alaves have a very weak tendency to foul in dangerous areas, which could gift Real Sociedad a set-piece opening to break the deadlock.
🎯 Pick 2: Alaves vs Real Sociedad – Correct Score 1-1
A 1-1 scoreline respects the offensive weapons available to both sides while acknowledging the defensive trends. Alaves have multiple routes to goal, with Carlos Vicente and Lucas Boye contributing consistently, and their direct style of attacking down the wings exploits a specific Sociedad weakness in defending wide deliveries. Conversely, Real Sociedad average a high volume of 13.65 shots per match and possess Mikel Oyarzabal, who has already registered eight league goals. Given Alaves’ vulnerability to long-range shots and Sociedad’s ability to pull the trigger from range, the hosts’ clean-sheet streak is likely to face its stiffest test yet. Furthermore, Sociedad are noted as weak at protecting leads, meaning even if they find an opener, Alaves have the crowd momentum and direct attacking profile to force an equaliser. This scoreline concentration fits the profile of a tight, edgy Basque derby where neither side wants to blink first.
Sociedad Shots/G
Alaves Cup CS
Risk Factor: High cup intensity often results in late volatility; Athletic’s 7 red cards highlight a potential for flashpoints that can ruin a specific scoreline.
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