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Can Udinese turn Bluenergy Stadium into a trap for Roma’s top-four chase? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Roma have won six straight meetings against Udinese. With Udinese winning just 1 of their last 6 home matches and Roma conceding only 0.71 goals per game, the visitors’ superior control and historical dominance make them authoritative favourites to secure all three points.
Read Rationale ▾
Roma’s elite defence has kept 13 clean sheets this season. Combined with their record of scoring 2+ goals in their last six meetings with Udinese, a 2-0 victory reflects their tactical superiority and Udinese’s defensive fragility at home.
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Udinese vs Roma Predictions and Best Bets
Udinese vs Roma — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Roma have won six straight Serie A meetings with Udinese. Pricing reflects the visitors’ historical dominance and superior defensive record.
Roma’s elite defence (13 clean sheets) suggests single-goal margins or a clean away victory are the highest probability results.
Roma have scored 2+ goals in their last six meetings with Udinese. Markets lean towards a structured game.
- Roma’s Udinese hoodoo: Roma have won six straight Serie A meetings with Udinese, and they’ve hit 2+ goals in all six — a brutal pattern Udinese must break.
- Style clash in the numbers: Roma average 57% possession and 13.77 shots per game, while Udinese sit at 47% possession with 12.28 shots — one side wants control, the other wants chaos.
- Home wobble meets elite defence: Udinese have won 1 of their last 6 home Serie A matches, while Roma have conceded just 13 goals in 22 league games and kept 13 clean sheets overall.
Tactical Identity: Average Possession
The gap in possession highlights a style clash: Roma prioritise methodical control while Udinese rely on direct disruption.
Averaging 492 passes per game, Roma’s shape is built to dictate play in the opposition half.
Udinese prioritise vertical transitions and counter-attacks over long spells on the ball.
Defensive Floor: Average Goals Conceded
Roma’s top-four charge is anchored by an elite defensive record, which Udinese’s inconsistent home form must overcome.
With 13 clean sheets in 22 games, Roma currently possess one of the most stable backlines in Serie A.
Udinese have won just one of their last six home matches, struggling to maintain structure under pressure.
Roma roll back into Serie A off the back of real Europa League drama — down to ten men early at Panathinaikos, still finding a way to nick the point they needed through Jan Ziółkowski’s late header. Now the focus snaps back to the league, and the pressure is obvious: Roma are 4th on 43 points, but Juventus are right behind on 42, with others lurking too.
Udinese, sitting 11th on 29 points, have the chance to turn Bluenergy Stadium into a real test of nerve and patience. They’ve got tools that can hurt anyone — counter attacks, aerial strength, long shots — but Roma arrive with a clear identity, a strong defensive base, and the belief that this fixture has been theirs for a long time.
Kick-off is 19:45.
Team News & Lineups
Udinese (Manager: Kosta Runjaić)
- Adam Buksa (calf) out until 09/02/2026
- Jakub Piotrowski (knee) out until 14/02/2026
- Hassane Kamara (muscular problems) — listed as a concern
- Rui Modesto (unknown injury) — listed as a concern
Probable XI (3-5-2):
Okoye; Bertola, Kristensen, Solet; Ehizibue, Miller, Karlström, Ekkelenkamp, Zemura; Atta; Davis
What it means: Udinese’s spine screams “direct and dangerous” — Davis as the reference point, Atta buzzing underneath, and wing-backs tasked with turning transitions into real chances.
Roma (Manager: Gian Piero Gasperini)
- No injuries/suspensions listed in the facts for this match.
- Gianluca Mancini was sent off vs Panathinaikos in the Europa League, but any Serie A impact isn’t stated here.
Probable XI (3-4-2-1):
Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Ghilardi; Celik, Cristante, El Aynaoui, Wesley; Soulé, Pellegrini; Malen
What it means: Roma’s shape is built for control and territory. With Wesley and Celik providing the width, Soulé and Pellegrini can live in those half-spaces and feed Malen early.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 11th (29) | 4th (43) |
| Avg possession | 47% | 57% |
| Shots per game | 12.28 | 13.77 |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 13 |
| Avg goals conceded per game | 1.48 | 0.71 |
Roma look like the side that dictates rhythm: more possession, more shots, cleaner passing. But the biggest line is the defensive one — 0.71 conceded per game is the platform for everything they do. Udinese don’t need to out-pass Roma; they need to unsettle them.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Roma’s control vs Udinese’s disruption
Roma’s approach is clear: control the game in the opposition half, work through short passes, and lean into right-sided progress. The raw profile backs it up — 57% possession, 492 passes per game, and 111.55 attacks per match. If Roma settle early, this becomes a match played mostly in Udinese’s territory, with Udinese forced into long defensive shifts.
Udinese won’t apologise for being direct. Their strengths point to a plan: counter attacks, aerial duels, and creating chances through individual skill. They also like to take long shots and hit long balls, attacking through the middle — basically, they want the match to feel messy and transitional, not tidy and positional.
The key mismatch: counters into a set defence
Here’s the tension: Roma are very weak defending counter attacks. Udinese are strong on counter attacks. That is the most obvious collision in the whole fixture. If Udinese can bait Roma forward, win second balls, and release runners early, they can turn one good moment into two, then three.
But Udinese have their own danger signs. They’re weak defending against skilful players and weak at avoiding individual errors. That’s a scary cocktail when Soulé and Pellegrini are looking for slips of space and Malen is making sharp movements off the shoulder.
Where Udinese can hurt Roma
Udinese must make the pitch feel vertical. Davis (7 league goals, 3 assists) gives them a genuine target, and they’re built to compete in the air with players like Kristensen (3.4 aerials won per game) and Kabasele (2.6). If they can force Roma into defending crosses, second phases, and restarts, Roma’s comfort disappears.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and aerial duels: Udinese are strong in the air, Roma are strong defending set pieces — one side wants chaos, the other wants clean clearances.
- Discipline and game management: Roma just navigated a European match shaped by an early red card; this fixture can swing hard if control turns into frustration.
- First goal timing: Udinese’s average first goal time is 46′, Roma’s is 40′ — if Roma strike earlier, Udinese’s plan has to change fast.
What could go wrong?
If Roma over-commit to dominating the ball, Udinese’s counter game can bite — especially through the middle, into the spaces left behind. Flip it the other way, and one Udinese error in build-up or a lost duel against Soulé/Pellegrini could hand Roma the kind of clear opening they don’t usually waste.
Best Bet for Udinese vs Roma
Can Udinese turn Bluenergy Stadium into a trap for Roma’s top-four chase?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| History | Roma: 6 straight wins vs Udinese | Back Roma |
| Defense | Roma: 13 goals conceded in 22 games | Oppose BTTS |
| Home Form | Udinese: 1 win in last 6 at home | Back Away Win |
| Efficiency | Roma: 0.71 goals conceded per game | Under 2.5 Goals |
Roma to Win
Roma enter this fixture with a historical dominance that is difficult to ignore. They have secured victory in each of their last six Serie A meetings with Udinese, consistently finding the back of the net at least twice in every one of those encounters. This established psychological edge is paired with a clear disparity in current form and technical reliability.
The foundation of Roma’s top-four charge is an elite defensive structure. They have conceded just 13 goals in 22 league matches this season, maintaining an average of 0.71 goals conceded per game. This defensive stability has led to 13 clean sheets overall, making them the most difficult side in the division to break down. While Udinese possess a direct threat through Keinan Davis, Roma’s ability to control 57% of possession and limit opposition opportunities should neutralise Udinese’s chaotic transition game.
Udinese’s recent record at the Bluenergy Stadium further reinforces the case for an away win. They have managed just one victory in their last six home Serie A matches, struggling to dictate play or maintain defensive discipline. They are particularly weak at avoiding individual errors and defending against skilful players. With Matias Soulé and Lorenzo Pellegrini operating in the half-spaces and feeding Donyell Malen, Roma have the creative tools to exploit Udinese’s defensive lapses.
While Roma are coming off a taxing Europa League outing, their identity under Gian Piero Gasperini is built on control and territory. They average nearly 500 passes and 111 attacks per match, which will force Udinese into deep defensive blocks for extended periods. Given Udinese’s home wobble and Roma’s clinical historical record in this fixture, the authority lies firmly with the visitors.
What could go wrong?
Udinese are strong on counter-attacks, which is Roma’s primary tactical weakness. If Roma over-commit numbers in the opposition half and fail to stop transitions through the middle, Keinan Davis and Robinio Vaz could exploit the space. Additionally, Udinese’s aerial strength (Kristensen wins 3.4 duels per game) could pose a threat if they win second balls in the box.
Correct Score Lean
Udinese 0-2 Roma
Roma’s defensive record is the defining metric of their season. Having kept 13 clean sheets and conceding only 0.71 goals per game, they are highly likely to shut out an Udinese side that has struggled for home form. Historically, Roma have scored at least two goals in their last six meetings with Udinese. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Roma’s defensive solidity while acknowledging their superior shot volume (13.77 per game) and Udinese’s tendency to commit individual errors under pressure. It is a result that aligns with both historical patterns and current tactical profiles.
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