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Can Southampton’s ball dominance break down a QPR side fresh from a massive away victory? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Southampton are seven games unbeaten and boast a superior creative profile with 57.2% possession. Having won their last five against QPR and maintaining a high midweek league win rate, their control at St Mary’s should eventually breach a visiting defence that struggles against through balls and direct pressure.
Read Rationale ▾
While Southampton dominate the ball, they remain vulnerable to counters and set pieces. QPR’s aerial threat and wing play suggest they can find the net, but the Saints’ high shot volume and Scienza’s creativity should see them outscore the visitors in a tightly contested 2-1 victory.
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St Mary’s under the lights sees a clash between two sides tied on 47 points, with the Saints looking to extend a seven-game unbeaten swagger against QPR’s away-day stubborn streak.
Southampton vs QPR — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on current pricing.
Southampton’s unbeaten momentum makes them clear favourites, while QPR’s win probability is lower despite their recent victory at Hull.
Pricing leans toward a higher-scoring outcome given Southampton’s creative numbers and QPR’s aerial threat from set pieces.
Southampton’s goal average points toward a multi-goal victory, with 2-1 emerging as a strong statistical possibility.
QPR’s 60 yellows vs Southampton’s 75 suggests the home side often engages in tactical fouls to prevent counter-attacks.
Match Preview: Southampton vs QPR
This has playoff-chase tension written all over it. Southampton are 11th with 47 points, QPR are 13th on 47 too — same haul, different route. The Saints arrive steady and stubborn, riding a seven-game unbeaten run and fresh from a 1-1 with Charlton. QPR roll in with a shot of confidence after winning 3-1 away at Hull, the kind of result that can flip a season’s narrative in a single night.
Tonda Eckert’s side have also been slick in midweek league fixtures, winning six of eight this season. Add in a strong recent record against QPR — five straight wins — and St Mary’s will feel primed. Kick-off is 20:00.
Technical Mastery: Possession & Accuracy
Southampton’s style relies on sustained pressure and ball retention, contrasting with QPR’s more direct approach.
With a pass accuracy of 83.7%, the Saints look to dominate the middle of the pitch at St Mary’s.
QPR operate with lower volume but focus on wing play and creating chances from limited spells.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
The Saints have scored 49 goals this season, backed by high creative metrics from through balls.
QPR’s aerial dominance, led by Jimmy Dunne, provides a significant threat during these shooting opportunities.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Southampton Absences
- Cyle Larin (hamstring) out.
- Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (knee) out.
- Jack Stephens (calf) out.
- Alex McCarthy (wrist) out.
QPR Absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Southampton XI
Peretz; Jelert, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Manning; Downes, Charles; Fellows, Archer, Edozie; Stewart
Probable QPR XI
Walsh; Edwards, Dunne, Mbengue, Norrington-Davies; Madsen, Hayden, Vale, Saito; Kone, Kolli
Match Implications
Southampton’s listed XI includes Jack Stephens despite his calf issue; if he doesn’t make it, the Saints lose an experienced organiser and their build-up rhythm could shift. QPR’s likely front pairing of Richard Kone and Rayan Kolli hints at movement and opportunism rather than a pure target-man contest, with runners arriving from wide.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| League position / points | 11th / 47 | 13th / 47 |
| League goals scored (33 apps) | 49 | 46 |
| Shots per game (league) | 14.5 | 13.0 |
| Possession (league) | 57.2% | 46.6% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 83.7% | 75.8% |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 9 | 9 |
Southampton’s numbers point to control: more possession, cleaner passing, slightly higher shot volume. QPR carry threat without dominating the ball — and their strengths in set pieces, aerial duels and chance creation make them dangerous if the Saints switch off for a moment.
Tactical Analysis
Southampton’s plan: pin them back, slide the knife through the middle
Southampton play like a side that expects to have the ball. They use short passes, look for through balls, and attack through the middle with a steady drip of pressure. Their creative profile is loud: very strong at creating through-ball chances, very strong at generating long-shot opportunities, and very strong from direct free kicks.
That suits the likely St Mary’s pattern: Southampton camped in QPR territory, recycling attacks until a lane opens. Léo Scienza is the headline producer — 7 assists and a 7.21 rating — while Adam Armstrong leads the scoring with 11. If Southampton can get Ross Stewart (5 goals in limited minutes) occupying centre-backs, Scienza and Finn Azaz can work the pockets. There’s one catch: Southampton are very weak at stopping opponents creating chances and weak defending counter attacks. That makes this a high-wire act if their midfield cover isn’t perfect.
QPR’s route: survive the ball, win the moments
Julien Stéphan’s QPR bring a different shape of threat. They’re strong down the wings, strong at creating chances, and strong on set pieces — plus they’ve got real aerial power in the side. Jimmy Dunne wins 5.1 aerial duels per game, while Richard Kone adds muscle and menace. QPR also rotate their eleven and can play in bursts: nick the ball, go early, and force Southampton to sprint back towards their own goal. Southampton’s weaknesses defending counters and set pieces give QPR two clear doors into the match.
Key Battle Grounds
- Southampton’s high possession can smother QPR, but it can also leave them exposed if they lose the ball with full-backs high.
- QPR’s own weaknesses — keeping possession and defending counters/through balls — mean their defensive structure has to be switched on for long spells, not just moments.
Key Moments to Watch
- First wave after half-time: Southampton’s average first goal time sits around 46′, and QPR’s away matches often sit level at the break — the restart could be the real ignition point.
- Scienza’s final ball: Léo Scienza (7 assists) is the Saints’ clearest chance-creator. If he gets time to look up, QPR’s back line will be forced into last-ditch decisions.
- The Azaz angle: Finn Azaz has assisted in each of his last three appearances against QPR and has provided more assists against them than any other side in his English league career.
- Set pieces at both ends: Southampton are very strong from direct free kicks, QPR are strong attacking set pieces, and Southampton are weak defending set pieces. One delivery can flip the whole night.
Game-State Scenarios
If Southampton over-commit chasing control, QPR can punch through the space they leave behind — especially with Southampton’s counter-defence labelled a weak spot. But if QPR spend too long pinned in and can’t keep the ball at all, those repeated Saints attacks eventually force a mistake, a foul in a bad area, or a set-piece that turns into the decisive moment.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
This is the most straightforward market where you select either a Home Win, Away Win, or a Draw at the end of 90 minutes. It is ideal for matches where one side shows significant dominance in form or statistical metrics.
Pros: High liquidity and clarity. Cons: Offers no protection if a dominant team is frustrated into a draw.
Correct Score
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Because it is much harder to predict the specific result than just the winner, the prices are significantly higher.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Very high volatility; a single late goal can ruin the selection.
🎯 Pick 1: Southampton to Win
Southampton enter this midweek fixture as the side with the technical and momentum-based advantage. They are currently on a seven-game unbeaten streak in all competitions, a run that has seen them maintain a steady climb in the Championship table. Their tactical approach is built on control; they average 57.2% possession and a pass accuracy of 83.7%, the kind of numbers that allow them to pin opponents back for long periods. Historically, the Saints have dominated this specific matchup, winning five straight games against QPR.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Midweek Mastery: Southampton have won six out of eight midweek league matches this season.
- Creative Hub: Léo Scienza leads the team with 7 assists and a high performance rating of 7.21.
- Home Strength: The Saints have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 home matches at St Mary’s.
Risk Factor: Southampton are noted as being weak at defending counter attacks, which is exactly how QPR look to strike. If the midfield cover fails, the Saints can be exposed.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Ranked very strong at slicing through the middle using Scienza and Azaz’s vision.
QPR’s defensive structure often struggles to track runners moving through central pockets.
🎯 Pick 2: Southampton 2-1 QPR
A 2-1 scoreline balances Southampton’s attacking efficiency with their defensive vulnerabilities. The Saints average 14.5 shots per game and have scored 49 league goals, suggesting they have the firepower to find the net multiple times, especially with Adam Armstrong and Ross Stewart in the rotation. However, QPR arrive with confidence after scoring three goals against Hull and possess significant aerial power through Jimmy Dunne, who wins over 5 duels per match.
Risk Factor: QPR have a habit of drawing at half-time in away games. If Southampton fail to find an early breakthrough, the game could stay at 0-0 or 1-1 deep into the second half, increasing the risk of a low-scoring draw.
❓ Q&A Section
⊕ What does Southampton’s possession stat mean for the game?
Southampton average 57.2% possession, meaning they usually control the ball and the tempo of the match. In practical terms, this suggests they will spend most of the game in QPR’s half, forcing the visitors to defend deep and rely on counter-attacks.
⊕ Is Southampton’s midweek record significant for this fixture?
Yes, Southampton have won six of their eight midweek league games this season. This shows a high level of physical conditioning and tactical preparation when facing the quick turnaround of Championship schedules.
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work for beginners?
The Correct Score market requires you to predict the exact number of goals scored by both teams at full-time. If you pick 2-1, you only win if the final whistle blows with that exact scoreline; any other result like 2-0 or 1-1 results in a loss.
⊕ Why is the 2-1 scoreline highlighted for this match?
The 2-1 scoreline accounts for Southampton’s attacking power (49 goals scored) and QPR’s aerial threat from set pieces. Since the Saints often struggle to defend counters, it is plausible that both sides find the net while the home side’s quality prevails.
⊕ Who is the most likely creative threat for Southampton?
Léo Scienza is the primary creator with 7 assists this season. Additionally, Finn Azaz has a history of performing well against QPR, having assisted in his last three appearances against them.
⊕ What is QPR’s main tactical strength in this match?
QPR are very strong in the air and on set pieces, with Jimmy Dunne winning 5.1 aerial duels per game. This provides them with a direct route to goal against a Southampton side that is weak at defending set-play situations.
⊕ What happens if the match is a draw at half-time?
QPR have had five consecutive away draws at half-time in the Championship. If this pattern continues, it suggests a cagey first 45 minutes where the decisive goals are likely to arrive in the second half.
⊕ Can I use Double Chance as a safer alternative?
A Double Chance selection (Southampton or Draw) covers two out of three possible outcomes. While the odds are lower, it provides protection in case QPR manage to frustrate the Saints into a stalemate.
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