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Can Southampton’s creators and Armstrong break Millwall’s aerial power and counter threat at St Mary’s? Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Southampton’s last seven league games have all seen both teams score. Their defense is "very weak" against counter-attacks and set pieces—Millwall’s key strengths. Conversely, Southampton’s attack (38 goals) is potent enough to breach a Millwall side that beat them 3-2 recently. The tactical matchup guarantees chances for both.
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Southampton are strong at home (4 wins in last 6) but rarely keep clean sheets. Millwall struggle away (1 win in last 6) but have the tools to score from set pieces. A narrow home win where the defense eventually leaks a goal fits the data perfectly.
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Southampton vs Millwall Predictions and Best Bets
Southampton vs Millwall — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Despite recent winless form, Southampton’s home record and superior attacking output make them the market favourites to bounce back.
Southampton score and concede frequently at home, pointing towards a narrow home win or a scoring draw as likely outcomes.
Southampton’s run of seven straight league games with both teams scoring makes BTTS and Over 2.5 goals highly favoured.
Adam Armstrong leads the goalscorer markets with 11 goals, while Finn Azaz offers value from midfield against a Millwall side weak to skill.
- Control vs directness in black and white: Southampton average 57.8% possession with 84.6% pass accuracy, while Millwall average 46.1% possession with 70.5% pass accuracy in the Championship.
- Shot volume sets the tone: Southampton take 14.7 shots per league match and have scored 38 goals, while Millwall take 12.4 shots per match and have scored 27 goals.
- Aerial battle could be loud: Millwall’s Jake Cooper wins 5.6 aerial duels per game and Mihailo Ivanovic wins 4.5, while Southampton list aerial duels as a very weak area.
Attacking Intent: Shots Per Game
Southampton’s attacking volume is high, but Millwall create plenty of danger themselves, setting up an open contest.
Creating nearly 15 chances a game, the Saints are consistently threatening, especially at St Mary’s.
Millwall average over 12 shots per game, proving they don’t just sit back—they actively look to test the keeper.
Style Clash: Possession Control
A clear tactical divide: Southampton dominate the ball to create openings, while Millwall are happy to cede territory and battle.
Prioritising short passing and control, Southampton look to dictate the tempo and pin opponents back.
Content without the ball, Millwall focus on aerial duels, second balls, and quick transitions rather than retention.
New Year’s Day at St Mary’s tends to arrive with a bit of theatre, and this one has plenty baked in before a ball is kicked. Southampton welcome Millwall in the Championship with the home side trying to reignite their playoff hopes, and the visitors turning up in fifth with a clear points cushion over the Saints.
That gap matters. Southampton are 13th on 32 points, seven points behind Millwall on 39, and it gives the afternoon a slightly unusual edge: it’s not just about momentum, it’s about whether Southampton can start dragging a team from the top end back into reach. The Saints’ recent sequence has made that feel necessary rather than optional. They are winless in their last four games, and the rhythm of their results has shifted from the sort of confident December that builds a run to the kind that leaves you squinting at the table and muttering, “Right then… we go again.”
Millwall arrive with their own reasons to treat this like serious business. They’ve won two of their last six, drawn two and lost two, which reads like a team that knows how to hang around even when things aren’t purring. And there’s an extra layer to this one given the recent head-to-head: Millwall beat Southampton 3-2 on 29 November 2025. That’s the kind of scoreline that lingers in the mind, partly because it suggests openings at both ends and partly because it tends to leave one side feeling it should have managed the moments better.
The contrast in identity is sharp enough to be interesting, too. Southampton are built to have the ball: possession football, short passes, attacking through the middle, through balls, and a knack for creating chances through individual skill. Millwall, by comparison, lean hard into the Championship staples: very strong aerial duels, long balls, crosses, width, a lot of shots, aggression, and a clear taste for counter attacks. It sets up the classic question you get when a possession side meets a direct, combative opponent: can the team with the ball move it quickly enough to avoid the traps, and can the team without it turn their moments into genuine danger rather than just noise?
There’s no need for grand prophecy. This one can be framed more simply. Southampton have the tools to play and to create. Millwall have the tools to disrupt, to compete, and to punish. Somewhere between those two truths sits a match that could swing on set pieces, second balls, and the sort of small defensive decisions that feel utterly harmless right up until they aren’t.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Southampton’s possible starting line-up is:
Bazunu; Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Stephens; Fellows, Jander, Downes, Manning; Azaz, Scienza; Armstrong
On the face of it, that’s a back three with wing-backs, two central midfielders, two players operating behind a striker — the sort of 3-4-2-1 shape that fits Southampton’s formations summary, where 3-4-2-1 has been used 14 times in the Championship. It’s a selection that prioritises control in the middle and gives Southampton multiple lines to play through, rather than pushing everything out to pure wingers.
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The back three is where the tone starts. Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood and Jack Stephens offers a blend of progression and threat at both ends. Harwood-Bellis in particular stands out: 4 goals and 1 assist from defence, plus 3.5 aerials won per game, and a 7.15 rating. For a side that likes attacking set pieces, having a centre-back with genuine output turns every dead ball into a moment the opposition has to mark properly rather than casually.
The wing-backs are just as revealing. Tom Fellows on one side and Ryan Manning on the other suggests Southampton want width with purpose rather than width for its own sake. Manning’s numbers back that up: 4 goals and 2 assists from a defensive role, alongside a 7.11 rating. That is not a full-back who simply shuffles the ball inside and resets; that’s a player who can provide end product, and in this system his position can decide whether Southampton’s attacks feel narrow and predictable or stretched and uncomfortable to defend.
Central midfield, the likely pairing of Caspar Jander and Flynn Downes hints at why Southampton want to be secure in possession. Jander’s pass accuracy is striking at 92.1%, and he has chipped in with 2 goals. Downes, meanwhile, brings bite: 7 yellow cards, the highest in Southampton’s squad list, and a role that often suits a side expecting opponents to play aggressively against them. That combination suggests Southampton may try to build cleanly through Jander while relying on Downes to protect transitions and break up the moments when Millwall try to turn the game into a scrap.
Ahead of them, Finn Azaz and Léo Scienza is a pairing that can make a 3-4-2-1 hum. Azaz has 6 goals and 3 assists, Scienza has 3 goals and 3 assists, and Scienza also carries a 7.15 rating with 2.2 shots per game. That profile screams “influence”: a player who wants the ball between the lines, who will shoot when the lane opens, and who can also slip runners in. In a match-up where Millwall can be uncomfortable defending against skillful players and long shots, that’s an important detail.
Up front, Adam Armstrong leads the line with the sort of numbers that carry weight in January: 11 goals and 4 assists, and 3.3 shots per game. Southampton don’t have to overcomplicate it. If they can keep him supplied in good areas, they are never far from a goal.
Millwall’s possible starting line-up is:
Crocombe; Crama, Taylor, Cooper, Doughty; Sturge, Mitchell; Emakhu, Bangura-Williams, Langstaff; Ivanovic
That reads as a 4-2-3-1, which matches Millwall’s formations summary where 4-2-3-1 has been used 19 times in the Championship. The spine is classic Millwall: a strong centre-back pairing in front of a goalkeeper, a double pivot built for duels, and a forward line that can mix physical presence with runners around the striker.
At the back, the names that jump out are Tristan Crama and Jake Cooper. Crama’s season has been huge in terms of involvement: 24 appearances, 2 goals, 2 assists, 3.8 aerials won per game, and a 7.19 rating. Cooper is the aerial monster: 5.6 aerials won per game, plus 2 goals and 1 assist and a 7.08 rating. If you’re Southampton, you can talk about possession and combinations all day, but you still have to live through the first corner that lands in that six-yard area with Cooper and Crama charging in.
Alfie Doughty at left-back brings another kind of threat: 3 assists in the league, suggesting he can deliver. And in a team that attempts crosses often, that matters. Millwall don’t just want territory; they want the ball arriving in the box with purpose.
In the middle, Zak Sturge and Billy Mitchell are positioned as the base, and even without dressing them up, Millwall’s profile tells you what they want there: very strong at stealing the ball from the opposition, very strong in aerial duels, and strong on counter attacks. It’s not a pairing built primarily to dominate possession. It’s a pairing designed to win moments and turn them into momentum.
Further forward, Aidomo Emakhu and Raees Bangura-Williams provide legs and energy around a forward line completed by Macaulay Langstaff and Mihailo Ivanovic. Ivanovic, as the likely striker, has 4 goals and 1 assist, plus 4.5 aerials won per game — another reminder that Southampton’s back line will have to defend the air as well as the grass. Langstaff’s minutes have been limited, but he has still found 2 goals, and his positioning in the line-up suggests Millwall may want a second scorer arriving from that central support role rather than expecting everything to funnel through the striker.
How the Match Could Be Played
This feels like a game that will reveal itself in layers. The first layer is obvious: Southampton will likely have more of the ball, and Millwall will likely try to make that ball feel uncomfortable.
Southampton’s style points clearly to possession football with short passes, attacking through the middle, and attempting through balls often. With a 3-4-2-1 shape, that usually means building through the back three, using the central midfielders as a platform, and then trying to get Azaz and Scienza receiving between the lines. The idea is to keep the ball moving quickly enough that Millwall can’t set their traps, because Millwall are marked as very strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. If Southampton get sloppy, Millwall will not politely wait for them to fix it.
Millwall’s approach, meanwhile, is built around width, long balls and crosses, plus a willingness to take a lot of shots. In a 4-2-3-1, that can mean one of two things depending on game state. If Millwall can force Southampton into rushed clearances, they can win second balls and immediately swing it wide for early deliveries. If Southampton settle and start pinning them back, Millwall can still carry threat by turning regains into counter attacks and making the pitch feel very long very quickly.
The key tactical tension is where Southampton’s control meets their vulnerabilities. Their weaknesses list is blunt: stopping opponents from creating chances is very weak, defending counter attacks is very weak, and aerial duels are very weak. That’s a nasty trio to carry into a match against a side whose strengths include very strong aerial duels and strong counter attacks. It means Southampton’s plan doesn’t just have to be good; it has to be tidy. They need their spacing right when wing-backs go forward, they need their rest defence organised behind the ball, and they need their set-piece defending locked in, because defending set pieces is also listed as weak.
That is where the likely Southampton back three matters. Harwood-Bellis brings aerial output and presence; Wood also wins 1.8 aerials per game; Stephens is tidy on the ball with 92.1% pass accuracy. The structure can help Southampton in two ways. First, it gives them an extra centre-back to deal with direct balls into Ivanovic. Second, it allows the wing-backs to push without leaving only two defenders behind. But it’s not a magic shield. If Southampton lose the ball high and Millwall break quickly into the space behind Fellows or Manning, suddenly it’s one of those games where you can feel the crowd inhaling at the same time.
Southampton’s attacking strengths suggest they will look for a couple of specific routes. One is through balls. With Azaz and Scienza drifting in pockets and Armstrong ready to run, Southampton can try to slide passes through Millwall’s midfield line before Cooper and Taylor have time to step up. That’s the “move fast before the duel happens” approach. It’s important because Millwall’s weaknesses include defending against skillful players and defending against long shots — and Southampton are very strong at creating chances through individual skill and very strong at creating long shot opportunities.
The second route is direct free kicks. Southampton are listed as very strong at shooting from direct free kicks. That’s not a minor detail. It can change how Millwall defend the edge of their box. If Millwall’s aggression tips into fouls in dangerous areas — something they are marked as weak at avoiding — Southampton have a potential shortcut to goal that bypasses open-play messiness altogether.
Millwall, on their side, will likely look at Southampton’s aerial and set-piece issues and see opportunity. They are strong at defending set pieces and strong at protecting the lead, which suggests they’re comfortable in the “stay in it, stay solid, then land a blow” type of match. With Cooper and Crama offering goals from defence and Ivanovic providing aerial wins up front, Millwall have multiple targets for deliveries. Doughty’s assist numbers also suggest he can put the ball into the sort of areas that cause problems.
Another theme that could shape the match is where Southampton attack. Their style says they attack through the middle. Millwall’s style says they control the game in the opposition’s half and attack down the right, with width. Those aren’t opposing ideas so much as intersecting ones. If Southampton build centrally and lose it, Millwall can immediately attack the flank space left behind. Conversely, if Millwall push up and try to hem Southampton in, it gives Southampton the chance to play through the press with short passes and then hit the space behind. That’s where Armstrong’s shot volume and output matter: he doesn’t need a dozen touches to be dangerous, he needs the right touch in the right moment.
There is also the question of tempo. Southampton’s pass numbers and possession suggest they can dictate stretches. In the Championship they average 57.8% possession with 84.6% pass accuracy, which points to a side that can move the ball cleanly. Millwall, by contrast, average 46.1% possession with 70.5% pass accuracy. That doesn’t mean they can’t play; it means they don’t necessarily want to play that way. They may be perfectly happy letting Southampton have the ball in harmless areas and then turning the match into a series of high-impact moments: tackles, headers, second balls, quick transitions, and corners.
If Southampton do dominate the ball, the key is whether that dominance turns into chances or just pretty patterns. Millwall’s defending set pieces is strong, so relying on corners as your main output may not be ideal. Southampton may need their through balls and individual skill creators — Azaz and Scienza in particular — to force Millwall into uncomfortable backpedalling rather than simply allowing them to defend their box in a set shape.
On the flip side, if Millwall can turn regains into early balls into the box, Southampton’s weaknesses could be put under immediate pressure. Millwall attempt crosses often, and with an aerially dominant Cooper plus Ivanovic winning 4.5 aerials per game, those deliveries don’t have to be perfect. They just have to be consistent enough to create chaos. And chaos is rarely a friend to a team labelled very weak in aerial duels.
The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table gives the cleanest snapshot of context. Millwall are fifth with 39 points from 24 matches, while Southampton are 13th with 32 points from 24 matches. That is a meaningful gap, but not an unbridgeable one if Southampton can string results together — which is exactly why this game carries so much emotional weight for the home side.
The recent results underline Southampton’s frustration. Their last six Championship matches include wins over Birmingham and West Bromwich, draws with Coventry and Birmingham, and defeats to Norwich and Oxford. The headline remains that winless run of four games, which comes from the sequence: Norwich (loss), Coventry (draw), Oxford (loss), Birmingham (draw). For a team with Southampton’s attacking talent, that sort of run tends to feel like someone has put a handbrake on at the worst possible time.
Millwall’s last six show a similar balance: wins against Bristol City twice, draws with Derby and Ipswich, and losses to Hull and Blackburn. It paints a side that can find a way to win without necessarily dominating every week — a profile that fits their strengths in set pieces, aerial duels and counter attacks.
Under the hood, Southampton’s attacking output is hard to ignore. They have scored 38 goals in 24 Championship matches, averaging 14.7 shots per game. That shot volume aligns with their ability to create through balls and long-shot opportunities. It also helps explain how Armstrong can reach 11 goals with 3.3 shots per game: Southampton generate enough attempts to keep him fed.
Millwall’s numbers are different, but not meek. They have scored 27 goals in 24 league matches, and average 12.4 shots per game. The big distinction is how they go about it. Their possession sits at 46.1% and their pass accuracy at 70.5%, which supports the idea of a team that values territory and duels over long spells of ball retention.
The passing and possession contrast is likely to show on the pitch. Southampton average 474.15 passes per game with 57% ball possession in the broader match set provided, while Millwall average 351.67 passes per game with 47% possession. Put simply, Southampton are comfortable circulating the ball until gaps appear, and Millwall are comfortable letting that happen as long as the key zones stay protected.
Then come the trends that shape expectation without pretending to be destiny. Southampton’s last seven Championship matches have featured goals for both teams — 7 out of 7. That suggests Southampton have been finding the net frequently, but also that they have been giving opponents opportunities at the other end. With Millwall’s counter-attacking strength and Southampton’s vulnerability defending counter attacks, it’s not hard to see why.
Millwall, meanwhile, have a recent away pattern in the league: their last three away Championship games have all featured under 2.5 goals. That can reflect matches where they keep things tight, reduce risk, and look for their moments rather than chasing chaos. It doesn’t automatically mean the next one follows the same pattern, but it does fit their strengths in defending set pieces and protecting the lead — the sort of traits that travel well when you’re happy to stay in the game.
Finally, the home/away form snippets add another layer. Southampton have been unbeaten in 8 of their last 9 home Championship games, and have 4 wins in their last 6 home matches. Millwall have won just 1 of their last 6 away league games and have suffered 3 defeats in their recent 6 away matches in the Championship. That’s the kind of split that can shape how bold each team feels early: Southampton may try to set a fast tempo at home, while Millwall may prioritise staying solid and letting the match come to them.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment could arrive from Southampton’s two creators behind the striker. Azaz and Scienza are both productive, and Scienza’s shooting volume adds an edge. If Millwall’s double pivot sits too deep, Southampton can get those two turning and running at the back line, which is where individual skill becomes more than a buzzword. Millwall are flagged as weak defending against skillful players, and that is exactly the territory where Azaz and Scienza can do damage.
The second moment is Armstrong’s relationship with the space behind Millwall’s centre-backs. Cooper is dominant in the air and strong in duels, but a 3-4-2-1 can create awkward angles for centre-backs if the ball is slipped early through midfield. If Southampton can connect quickly through Jander and Downes into the pockets, Armstrong might be fed before Millwall’s shape can settle.
The third moment is every set piece that drops into Southampton’s area. Millwall’s aerial numbers aren’t subtle: Cooper at 5.6 aerials won per game, Ivanovic at 4.5, Crama at 3.8. Southampton, meanwhile, are labelled weak defending set pieces and very weak in aerial duels. That doesn’t mean Southampton can’t cope — Harwood-Bellis wins 3.5 aerials per game and Wood is sturdy — but it does mean each corner and wide free kick becomes a genuine test rather than a routine pause.
The fourth moment is what happens immediately after Southampton lose the ball. Millwall are strong on counter attacks; Southampton are very weak at defending counter attacks. That’s a match-up you can almost see from the stands. If Southampton commit wing-backs high and Millwall win it, the first pass out is critical. Does it go into space down the flank? Does it go into Ivanovic’s chest to set a runner? Does it force a foul? Those are the sequences that can change the mood in seconds.
The fifth moment is discipline in dangerous areas. Millwall are marked as weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Southampton are very strong at shooting from direct free kicks. Put those together and you have a scenario where one mistimed tackle, one tug, one late step can become a major chance without any need for open-play craft.
What could go wrong with this read? The Championship has a habit of laughing at tidy tactical plans. A deflection, a first-minute set piece, or a single loose pass can flip the match into a completely different shape. Southampton might dominate the ball and still find themselves defending transitions all afternoon. Millwall might sit in and still concede to a long shot despite doing most things right. Fine margins, heavy legs, and one moment of chaos can do a lot of the writing.
Best Bet for Southampton vs Millwall
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Both Teams to Score – Yes
The most compelling narrative for this clash isn’t just about who wins, but the fact that both teams consistently find the net against each other and within their current form lines. Southampton’s recent games have been high-event affairs; notably, their last seven consecutive Championship matches have seen both teams score. This 100% record in recent weeks underlines a side that possesses significant attacking firepower through Adam Armstrong (11 goals) and Finn Azaz (6 goals), yet remains defensively porous enough to offer chances to any opponent.
Tactically, the matchup exacerbates this trend. Southampton are explicitly flagged as “very weak” at defending counter-attacks and “weak” at defending set pieces. These are precisely the areas where Millwall excel. The visitors are rated “strong” on the counter-attack and possess immense aerial threat through Jake Cooper (5.6 aerials won per game) and Mihailo Ivanovic. Millwall’s style of long balls and crosses is the perfect antidote to Southampton’s possession-heavy approach, especially given the home side’s specific defensive frailties. Conversely, Millwall are “weak” at defending against skilful players and long shots—two areas where Southampton’s creative midfielders, Azaz and Scienza, thrive.
Furthermore, the recent head-to-head record adds weight to this view, with Millwall winning the reverse fixture 3-2 just over a month ago. That scoreline reflects the open nature of contests between these contrasting styles. While Southampton are unbeaten in eight of their last nine home games and will push for the win to close the playoff gap, their inability to keep clean sheets combined with Millwall’s set-piece dominance makes “Both Teams to Score” the most logical and data-supported selection.
What could go wrong Millwall have been involved in tighter affairs away from home recently, with their last three away Championship games all featuring under 2.5 goals. If the visitors decide to sit extremely deep and prioritize a clean sheet over counter-attacking ambition, they could stifle Southampton’s flow and limit the game to a low-scoring grind. Additionally, if Southampton’s possession dominance becomes sterile, they might struggle to break down a packed defence, leading to a 1-0 or 0-0 scenario.
Correct Score Lean Given Southampton’s attacking output (38 goals in 24 games) and home form, they are favored to edge this, but their defensive leaks suggest they won’t do it to nil. A 2-1 victory for Southampton fits the pattern of their recent home wins (often by single-goal margins with both teams scoring) and acknowledges Millwall’s threat from set-pieces and counters.
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