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Can Norwich’s through-ball threat outweigh Stoke’s width and counter-punch at Carrow Road? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Roma’s tactical setup is designed to dominate the pitch, evidenced by their high possession and shot volume. At home, they are incredibly difficult to beat, losing only three times in their last twenty league games at the Olimpico. Sassuolo’s form has dipped significantly, and their defensive fragility is likely to be exposed by the creative movement of Dybala and Soulé. While Sassuolo can be dangerous on the break, Roma's overall quality and historic winning streak in this fixture suggest they should have enough to secure all three points.
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This scoreline aligns with Roma’s defensive strength and Sassuolo’s current offensive struggles. Roma have conceded very few goals on home soil this season, and their average of 0.68 goals conceded per game suggests they are highly capable of keeping a clean sheet here. Offensively, they possess enough firepower to score multiple times against a Sassuolo defense that was recently breached three times by Juventus. A two-goal margin reflects a controlled performance where the home side's quality eventually wears down a struggling opponent.
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Norwich City vs Stoke City Predictions and Best Bets
Norwich City vs Stoke City — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below is informational. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds (where available).
Norwich are marginal favourites at Carrow Road, though Stoke’s away efficiency suggests a closely priced market.
- Table gap, different pressures: Norwich are 22nd with 24 points while Stoke are ninth with 37, highlighting why the hosts need traction and the visitors can play with more freedom.
- A defensive contrast that shapes the feel: Stoke have conceded 26 goals in 25 league matches, while Norwich have conceded 41 in 25, suggesting Stoke have resisted pressure more consistently.
- A head-to-head pattern worth noting: Norwich have won 3 of the last 6 meetings across all leagues, with the other 3 ending as draws, leaving Stoke without a win in that run.
Control: Possession Averages
Both sides display a preference for ball retention, with nearly identical averages across the season.
The Canaries look to build through central areas using a high volume of short passes.
Stoke utilize control to draw opponents out before launching wide transitions.
Resistance: Defensive Shutouts
The contrast in clean sheets highlights different defensive philosophies and stability levels.
Norwich frequently rely on scoring multiple goals due to limited defensive shutouts.
The Potters have shown far greater frequency in completely nullifying opposition attacks.
Norwich City are close enough to feel the daylight. On the verge of breaking out of the relegation zone, the Canaries return to Carrow Road on Sunday to face Stoke City with a bit of fizz back in their season after a dramatic win at Queens Park Rangers.
Stoke arrive with their own lift. An away success at Hull City was described as much-needed, and it sets up this one as a clash between a side scrapping for air and a side sitting far more comfortably in ninth place. The standings underline the contrast: Norwich are 22nd with 24 points, Stoke ninth with 37.
And yet, it doesn’t read like a neat “form versus table” story. Norwich have been edging results together across the last month, and Carrow Road has seen its share of tight, tense afternoons. Stoke, meanwhile, bring a profile built for discomfort: an aggressive edge, key threats on the break, and a habit of playing in their own half even while leaning into possession football.
That’s the hook. Norwich need points to climb, Stoke want rhythm to climb. Somewhere between those two motivations is a match that could swing on the details: who wins the wide areas, who manages transitions, and who keeps their head when the game inevitably asks a tricky question.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Norwich’s possible starting lineup has Vladan Kovacevic in goal, with Kellen Fisher, Ruairi McConville, José Córdoba and Ben Chrisene across the back. In midfield, Kenny McLean and Pelle Mattsson sit alongside Matej Jurásek and Jacob Wright, with Jovon Makama supporting Josh Sargent up top.
There’s a clear implication in that XI: Norwich want to play on the front foot, but with enough structure to attack through the middle. Their style points to short passes, long shots and an appetite for through balls, and that midfield mix looks designed to feed those patterns. McLean and Mattsson offer the base to circulate and press, while Jurásek and Wright hint at runners and connectors around Sargent.
The injury list matters too. Amankwah Forson is out with a hamstring injury, Mathias Kvistgaarden has a knee injury, and Mirko Topic and Ante Crnac are both out with cruciate ligament tears. With Makama and Sargent named in the possible XI, Norwich’s attacking burden looks likely to sit heavily on that pair and the supporting line behind them.
Stoke’s possible starting lineup is Tommy Simkin; Maksym Talovierov, Ashley Phillips, Ben Wilmot and Ben Gibson in defence; Tomás Rigo and Bosun Lawal in midfield; Million Manhoef, Bae Jun-Ho and Sorba Thomas as the attacking three; with Sam Gallagher leading the line.
That reads like a 4-2-3-1 shape on paper, and it matches the broader Stoke profile: width, a preference for attacking down the right, and the capacity to counter at speed. With Thomas and Manhoef named together, Stoke’s threat from wide areas looks central to how they’ll try to play. Add Lawal’s presence behind them, and there’s a feel of a side set up to spring rather than smother.
How the Match Could Be Played
Norwich’s biggest tactical tension is baked into their own characteristics. They’re strong at creating long-shot opportunities and strong at carving openings using through balls, and they’re also strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. That’s the encouraging part: they can win it, they can progress it, and they can shoot.
The other side of the coin is where the match can get uncomfortable. Norwich are rated weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, weak at defending counter attacks, and very weak at defending against attacks down the wings. That last point is hard to ignore against a Stoke side whose style includes playing with width and attacking down the right, with a very strong counter-attacking strength on top.
So the first key battle is the geography of the pitch. Norwich like to attack through the middle; Stoke like to stretch you and then break. If Norwich dominate possession and commit bodies into central zones, the risk is obvious: turnovers become invitations for Stoke to go wide quickly and ask Norwich’s full-backs and wide midfielders to defend big spaces.
That could put Fisher and Chrisene in the spotlight early. With Thomas and Manhoef in Stoke’s wide roles and Bae operating as a creator, Stoke can build overloads out wide and work the ball into crossing areas, or simply carry it into the final third and force Norwich’s back line to retreat. Norwich’s weakness in aerial duels adds another layer: if Stoke turn wide pressure into deliveries, Norwich will need their centre-backs and goalkeeper to manage second balls and loose scraps as well as the first contact.
Norwich’s route forward, meanwhile, looks tied to timing and incision. Sargent has seven league goals and three assists, and Makama has nine goals. That pairing can give Norwich a direct threat even when Stoke sit deep. One of Norwich’s strongest attacking tools—through balls—only truly bites if runners are moving beyond the ball. If Jurásek and Wright can arrive at the right moment, Norwich can turn a tidy passing move into a sudden chance, rather than settling for long shots every time the box feels crowded.
Long shots are the other lever Norwich can pull, but they come with their own warning label. Norwich are themselves weak at defending against long shots, and Stoke are strong at creating long shot opportunities. That points to a match where the edge of the box becomes a noisy, chaotic place: clearances dropping, midfielders stepping in, and both teams fancying a hit. The team that blocks smarter and resets quicker could buy themselves the calmer game state.
Stoke’s approach feels likely to involve patience without passivity. Their style includes possession football and playing in their own half, which sounds contradictory until you picture it: Stoke moving the ball with control in deeper zones, tempting Norwich to jump, then using the first aggressive press as the trigger for a counter. Norwich are strong at stealing the ball, but they’re also weak at avoiding individual errors and weak at protecting the lead. That suggests a match that could twist: strong spells from Norwich, followed by a wobble if Stoke can force rushed decisions.
There’s also an offside angle worth watching. Norwich’s style includes playing the offside trap, while Stoke’s weaknesses include avoiding offside being very weak. If Norwich hold a confident line, especially when Stoke try to release runners quickly in transition, those marginal runs could become wasted attacks. If Norwich’s line is hesitant, though, Stoke’s pace and width can still stretch them into the sort of last-ditch defending that tends to end in corners, set plays, and pressure.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league numbers help explain why this match could feel like a clash of intentions. Norwich average 52.4% possession in the Championship with an 80.4% pass completion rate, while Stoke sit at 53.5% possession and 80.3% passing. That combination suggests neither side is inherently built to play without the ball; the difference will be how they use it. Norwich’s preference for short passes and through balls hints at central combinations, while Stoke’s width and counter strength point to possession used as a platform to launch.
Stoke’s defensive record stands out. They’ve conceded 26 goals in 25 Championship matches, which measures a level of resistance that can keep them in games even when the opponent has periods of control. Norwich, by contrast, have conceded 41 in 25, which reflects a greater susceptibility to the kind of transition moments Stoke like.
Shot volumes are also telling. Norwich take 12.4 shots per game in the league, Stoke 11.4. The gap isn’t huge, which matters: this may not become a one-way siege. Instead, it hints at a match with spells—Norwich having the ball and trying to unlock, Stoke picking the moments to punch holes in the shape.
And then there’s the clean-sheet contrast. Norwich have 2 clean sheets across 27 played games in the wider tally shown, while Stoke have 10. That matters not as a prediction, but as a clue to game texture: Stoke have shown they can shut the door more often, while Norwich have more frequently needed to win matches by scoring rather than by strangling them.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing moment is Norwich’s right side versus Stoke’s right-sided emphasis. Stoke’s style leans into attacking down the right, and Sorba Thomas is their leading Championship scorer with eight goals and five assists. If Norwich allow him repeated time to receive and deliver, the match risks becoming a stream of defending actions rather than a game Norwich can shape.
The second is what happens when Norwich win the ball. They’re strong at stealing possession and strong at finding through balls, and that can be a perfect combination against a side set up to play in its own half. One sharp regain, one quick forward pass, and suddenly Sargent and Makama are asking Stoke’s centre-backs to turn and run. Norwich don’t need a dozen moves; they need a few clean ones.
The third is discipline in dangerous areas. Norwich are rated weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, while Stoke are strong at creating long shot opportunities and Norwich are weak at defending long shots. That cocktail can turn one clumsy moment into a high-leverage situation around the box, the kind that changes the mood inside a stadium instantly.
What could go wrong with this read? Norwich’s own weaknesses leave room for a messy match. If they commit too many players into central areas and Stoke break wide, Norwich can end up stretched and chasing. And if the game becomes frantic—long shots flying, transitions stacking up—fine details like timing an offside trap or making the first tackle cleanly can matter more than any grand tactical plan.
Best Bet for Norwich City vs Stoke City
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Both Teams to Score (Yes)
A clash between a side fighting for survival and one chasing the play-offs often produces a cagey affair, but the tactical profiles of Norwich City and Stoke City suggest a more open encounter at Carrow Road. Norwich have shown a renewed attacking spark under their recent management, particularly with the partnership of Josh Sargent and Jovon Makama. Sargent has registered seven goals and three assists this term, while Makama has netted nine times, including crucial strikes in recent home victories. Their ability to create chances through central through balls and high-volume shooting—averaging 12.4 shots per game—makes them a constant threat in front of their own fans.
However, the hosts remain vulnerable at the back. They have kept just two clean sheets in 27 matches across all competitions and have conceded 41 goals in 25 league outings. This defensive fragility plays directly into the hands of a Stoke City side that excels in wide areas and on the counter-attack. The Potters focus their play down the right flank, where Sorba Thomas has been highly productive with eight goals and five assists. Stoke’s style involves drawing opponents out before using their pace to exploit the wings, a specific area where Norwich are rated as very weak.
Stoke have also demonstrated they can find the net regularly away from home, winning five road games this season. While they possess a superior defensive record to their hosts, with ten clean sheets, they are currently missing their first-choice goalkeeper and have shown susceptibility to long-range efforts and defensive lapses in their own half. Given Norwich’s clinical edge at home lately and Stoke’s efficiency on the break, both teams finding the back of the net is the most logical outcome supported by their respective strengths and weaknesses.
What could go wrong
The main risk to this selection is a tactical stalemate where Stoke’s defensive organization, which has produced the league’s fourth-best defensive record, successfully smothers Norwich’s central attacks. If the Potters sit deep and refuse to be drawn out, they may limit the space for Sargent and Makama. Conversely, if Norwich’s offside trap is particularly effective against Stoke’s runners, the visitors may find their counter-attacking opportunities frequently flagged away, leading to a low-scoring or one-sided contest.
Correct score lean: 1-1
A 1-1 draw is the most appropriate scoreline for this matchup. Both teams share remarkably similar possession and passing statistics, with each averaging over 53% and 80% respectively. This suggests a balanced game where neither side will totally dominate the ball. While Norwich have improved at Carrow Road, winning three of their last four home games, their defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely. Stoke have already drawn with Norwich this season in a 1-1 result back in September and have a habit of staying competitive in tight games, making a shared point a high-probability outcome.
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