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Can Hull’s firepower finally crack Derby’s grip on this fixture at the MKM Stadium? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Derby have found the net in 92% of their last 36 outings, while Hull have scored in 80% of their fixtures this campaign. Given Hull’s recent defensive vulnerabilities and high-scoring home matches, both teams contributing looks highly probable in this crucial playoff battle.
Read Rationale ▾
With both sides coming off weekend defeats and desperate to avoid another loss, a cagey encounter is likely. Derby’s historical dominance over Hull and both teams’ consistent scoring records suggest a competitive 1-1 stalemate could be the final outcome at the MKM Stadium.
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This is a playoff scrap with sharp edges. Both sides stumble in off weekend defeats, making the mood restless and urgent as the gap in the standings gets protected or ripped open.
Hull City vs Derby — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market analysis and illustrative probabilities for this Championship clash.
Hull’s home advantage creates a slight price edge, yet Derby’s unbeaten record in 12 of 13 meetings looms large.
Hull have seen over 2.5 goals land in their last three, though both sides recently struggled for consistency.
Historical data and current form suggest a 1-1 draw, reflecting a competitive battle between two playoff chasing sides.
Derby win 21.4 aerials per game compared to Hull’s 18.3, marking a distinct tactical advantage on high balls.
Match Preview
This is a playoff scrap with sharp edges. Hull City sit fifth on 54 points, Derby County are eighth on 48, and the gap is exactly what makes this fixture bite: six points either gets protected or ripped open. Both sides stumble in off weekend defeats — Hull went down 3-1 to QPR, Derby were beaten 2-0 at Watford — so the mood is restless and urgent.
The MKM Stadium should feel like a stage for a statement, but Hull’s recent home results have been a warning sign rather than a comfort blanket. Derby, meanwhile, arrive with a habit of hanging around in this matchup. Sergej Jakirović and John Eustace are staring at the same question: who controls the tone early, and who keeps their nerve when the game turns?
Scoring Consistency: Scoring Record Percentage
A comparison of how often both sides find the back of the net in competitive league play.
Derby have managed to score in 33 of their last 36 outings, showcasing remarkable reliability.
Hull have found the net in 28 of their 35 games, maintaining a consistent threat.
Physical Battle: Aerial Duels Won
Aerial dominance can be a deciding factor in Championship set-piece scenarios.
Derby’s style leans heavily into wide deliveries and crossing, supported by high aerial success.
Hull have shown vulnerability in the air, which may be tested by Derby’s crossing volume.
- Derby’s Fixture Stranglehold: Hull are winless in their last six against Derby, losing five, and Derby are unbeaten in 12 of the last 13 meetings across all competitions.
- Goals Guaranteed? Not Quite, But Close: Derby have scored in 33 of their last 36 matches (92%), while Hull have scored in 28 of 35 (80%) — both carry a threat even on scruffy nights.
- Hull’s Home Alarm Bells: Hull have lost their last three home games in all competitions, and over 2.5 goals has landed in their last three matches — chaos has followed them lately.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries / absences
Hull City: M. Belloumi (torn thigh muscle) — out until 15.03.2026; O. McBurnie (calf injury) — return date not specified; D. Gyabi (groin injury) — return date not specified; E. Matazo (cruciate ligament injury) — return date not specified. Derby County: No injuries or suspensions were specified.
Probable Hull City lineup
Pandur; Giles, McNair, Egan, Coyle; Hadziahmetovic, Slater; Dowell, Gelhardt, Millar; McBurnie
Probable Derby County lineup
Vickers; Ward, Sanderson, Clarke, Forsyth; Ozoh, Travis; Brereton Diaz, Szmodics, Brewster; Morris
What it implies
Hull’s likely XI screams direct end-product: Joe Gelhardt and Oliver McBurnie have been central to their goal output, and the shape is geared to feed them quickly. If McBurnie can’t go, Hull lose a major finisher and a key reference point — and that changes how aggressive Derby can be with their line. Derby’s selection leans into width, crosses, and runners off the front; it’s built to test Hull’s weak spots without needing long spells on the ball.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League) | Hull City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Points | 54 (32 games) | 48 (33 games) |
| Goals scored | 51 (32) | 47 (33) |
| Goals conceded | 46 (32) | 41 (33) |
| Shots per game | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| Possession | 45.9% | 42.6% |
| Pass accuracy | 75.6% | 74.8% |
| Aerials won | 18.3 | 21.4 |
| Clean sheets | 10 (35) | 8 (36) |
Tactical Battle
Hull: ruthless when it opens up
Hull’s strengths point to a side that love moments, not marathons. They are very strong at finishing scoring chances and counter attacks, with a clear bias toward attacking down the right and playing with width. Add in through balls as a strength and you get the blueprint: win it, go early, and hurt teams before they can set.
That’s exactly why this fixture matters after a rough run. Hull’s recent matches have been loose, and their weaknesses explain the chaos: defending against through balls is a problem, they’re weak protecting the lead, and they can be exposed in aerial duels. Against a Derby side that goes wide and delivers, that’s a risky cocktail. Hull need their wide players switched on without the ball, otherwise they’ll spend the night defending their own box.
Derby: wide pressure, set-piece steel
Derby are built for friction. They’re strong at defending set pieces, strong in aerial duels, and they can hurt sides with direct free kicks. Their style leans hard into long balls, crosses, and attacking down the left, with width and aggression as the constant.
That has “problem for Hull” written all over it. Hull are already weak in aerial duels and weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas — Derby’s best route is to keep forcing those moments: wide deliveries, bodies in the box, free-kick danger.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece pressure: Derby are strong defending set pieces and dangerous from direct free kicks; Hull’s habit of conceding fouls in dangerous areas invites trouble.
- Wide overloads: Hull are strong attacking down the wings, Derby are weak defending them — if Hull lock in early, Derby’s back line gets stretched.
- Aerial battles in both boxes: Derby win more aerials (21.4 vs 18.3). With crosses flying, one dominant spell in the air can flip momentum.
- First goal timing: Hull’s average first goal time is 35’, Derby’s is 45’ — if Hull strike first, Derby’s response becomes the test.
- Form edge vs fixture history: Derby have taken five wins from the last six meetings; Hull need to turn the MKM into a reset button, fast.
What Could Go Wrong?
Hull’s recent home losses make them vulnerable to frustration — one sloppy concession and the pitch can feel bigger, not smaller. Derby’s weakness on the wings means they can be ripped open if they chase the game too hard. And with both sides strong at finishing chances, a couple of chaotic minutes can decide it long before anyone settles into rhythm.
Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This market requires both competing sides to find the net at least once during the 90 minutes. It does not matter who wins or what the final score is, as long as the scoreline is 1-1 or higher.
Pros: Keeps the bet alive regardless of the match winner. Cons: A single team failing to score or a dominant defensive performance ruins the selection.
Correct Score
This involves predicting the exact final scoreline of the match at the end of regulation time. It is a high-reward market due to the difficulty of pinpointing the specific result.
Pros: Offers significantly higher prices. Cons: High volatility; a single late goal can instantly nullify the pick.
BTTS – Yes Rationale
Analysing the offensive output of both Hull City and Derby County reveals a strong case for Both Teams to Score. Derby arrive with an exceptional scoring record, having found the net in 33 of their last 36 matches (92%). This consistent threat is met by a Hull side that has managed to score in 80% of their fixtures this season. Despite both sides suffering defeats in their previous outings, their ability to generate chances remains high, with Hull averaging 11.2 shots per game.
📊 Tactical Indicators
- Derby have scored in 92% of their last 36 competitive matches.
- Hull City have scored in 28 of their 35 games this campaign.
- Hull’s last three home matches have all seen Over 2.5 goals land.
Risk Factor: Hull have lost their last three home games and may adopt a more cautious defensive stance to stop the rot.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 21.4 duels/match. Direct threat from wide areas against a vulnerable Hull backline.
Ranked significantly lower in aerial success (18.3 per match). Vulnerable to Derby’s crossing focus.
1-1 Draw Rationale
A 1-1 stalemate appears plausible given the context of this playoff chase. Both teams are reeling from weekend losses and will be desperate to avoid a second consecutive defeat that could derail their promotion hopes. Derby County have a historical stranglehold on this fixture, remaining unbeaten in 12 of the last 13 meetings. However, Hull’s home firepower and the urgency to reset at the MKM Stadium suggest they should be able to find the net. Hull’s average first goal time of 35 minutes suggests they can strike early, while Derby’s persistence often leads to goals in the second half.
Risk Factor: Hull’s defensive struggle against through balls could see Derby snatch more than one goal on the counter.
Interactive Q&A
⊕What is a Both Teams to Score (BTTS) bet?
A BTTS bet is a wager where you predict both teams will score at least one goal each. This market is popular because the outcome is independent of the final match winner.
⊕Why is the 1-1 draw predicted for this match?
Both teams need to avoid defeat after recent losses, and their high scoring percentages suggest they will both find the net. Historically, Derby have been very difficult for Hull to beat, making a stalemate likely.
⊕How does the ‘Double Chance’ market work?
Double Chance allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes (Win, Lose, Draw) in one bet. For example, “Hull or Draw” wins if Hull City win or the game ends in a tie.
⊕What is Hull City’s current scoring form?
Hull have scored in 80% of their matches this season and average 1.59 goals per game. However, they have struggled recently at home, losing their last three at the MKM Stadium.
⊕How strong is Derby County’s defence?
Derby have conceded 41 goals in 33 games and kept 8 clean sheets. They are particularly strong in the air, winning 21.4 duels per match, which helps them defend set-pieces effectively.
⊕What is the impact of injuries on Hull City?
Hull are missing several key players including M. Belloumi and potentially Oliver McBurnie. Losing McBurnie would be a significant blow as he is a primary finisher and tactical reference point for their attack.
⊕Which team has the historical advantage?
Derby County have a dominant record in this fixture, remaining unbeaten in 12 of the last 13 meetings. Hull have failed to win any of their last six matches against the Rams.
⊕What happens if a player I bet on doesn’t start?
In most goalscorer markets, if a player does not enter the field of play, the bet is voided and your stake is returned. Check individual bookmaker terms for specific rules on substitutes.
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