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The Valley scrap: can Charlton turn survival grit into back-to-back league wins against Derby? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Both teams arrive following 1-0 victories. Charlton’s last three home games have all seen fewer than three goals. With both sides averaging just 42% possession and prioritizing direct play, this will be a territorial battle won in the air rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Read Rationale ▾
Charlton have avoided defeat in 27 of their last 31 home matches, but struggle to secure wins. Derby are the more efficient side but have a weakness in protecting leads. A low-scoring stalemate reflects the tactical deadlock expected at The Valley.
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Charlton Athletic vs Derby County Predictions and Best Bets
Charlton vs Derby — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Exchange pricing indicates a narrow gap between the sides, with Derby marginally favoured despite Charlton’s strong home record.
Pricing suggests a cagey match at The Valley, with a high probability of low-scoring results or a stalemate.
- Home resilience, but wins are scarce: Charlton have avoided defeat in 27 of their last 31 home matches in all competitions, yet they’ve won just 2 of their last 13 overall.
- Low-scoring pattern at The Valley: Charlton’s last three home Championship games have all finished under 2.5 goals, fitting a side averaging 1.07 scored per game overall.
- Derby’s edge in the matchup: Derby haven’t lost in 11 of the last 13 Championship meetings with Charlton, and they arrive 12th with 38 points to Charlton’s 32.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
Charlton generate a higher frequency of attempts, though Derby’s more efficient conversion has resulted in more league goals this season.
Charlton prioritize quantity in attack, leading to busy nights for opposing goalkeepers despite their lower league standing.
Derby adopt a more selective approach, resulting in fewer total attempts but a higher goal tally (36) compared to Charlton (26).
Defensive Stability: Total Clean Sheets
Clean sheet counts highlight Charlton’s slight edge in defensive shutouts over the course of the current campaign.
Consistent defensive structure at home has allowed Charlton to keep opponents at bay in a significant portion of their fixtures.
Derby have managed fewer shutouts than their hosts, often relying on their superior offensive output to secure results.
A Tuesday night at The Valley with table pressure in the air and two managers who like their football direct, combative, and purposeful. Nathan Jones has Charlton sitting 18th with 32 points from 26 — five above the drop — and Saturday’s 1-0 win over Sheffield United finally snapped a five-game wait for a league victory.
John Eustace brings Derby County to SE7 after they matched that scoreline away at Preston North End, keeping themselves in the top half mix in 12th on 38 points. Both sides needed that clean-sheet lift. Now comes the real test: can Charlton follow it up with a second straight league win — something they haven’t managed since October — or will Derby’s steadier profile grind this into another tight, edgy one?
Kick-off is 19:45.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Charlton: J. Roussillon (knock).
- Derby: None listed.
Probable Lineups
Charlton Athletic: Kaminski; Clarke, Jones, Gillesphey; Ramsay, Rankin-Costello, Anderson, Bree; Carey, Leaburn, Kelman.
Derby County: Widell Zetterstrom; Langas, Ward, Clarke; Ozoh, Thompson, Clark, Elder; Brereton Diaz, Agyemang, Brewster.
What it means
- Charlton’s threat is built around work-rate and second balls, with Sonny Carey (6 league goals) driving the attacking output.
- Derby’s front line has more proven punch: Carlton Morris has 10 league goals, while Patrick Agyemang has 7 and adds a direct running option.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Charlton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 12th |
| Points | 32 | 38 |
| Goals scored / conceded (league) | 26 / 32 | 36 / 35 |
| Shots per game (league) | 11.4 | 9.8 |
| Possession % (league) | 42.5% | 42.0% |
| Pass % (league) | 71.0% | 73.7% |
| Clean sheets (overall listed) | 8 | 6 |
This doesn’t read like a possession contest. Both sides sit around 42% of the ball, both play with aggression, and both lean into long balls and crossing. Charlton take more shots, but Derby have scored more league goals — a classic volume vs efficiency clash.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
The fight for territory
This has the look of a pitch-length wrestle. Charlton are strong on counter attacks and aerial duels, and their style points straight to long balls and frequent crossing. With Lloyd Jones (26 apps, 5.9 aerials won) and Miles Leaburn (5.8 aerials won) they can turn clearances into attacks and make set pieces feel like open play.
Derby won’t flinch. They’re also strong in aerial duels, and they’re built to play in their own half, then explode forward with width. Their listed approach — attacking down the left, long balls, and crosses — points to a busy night for Charlton’s wide defenders, especially if Derby can pin them back and win second balls high up the pitch.
Where Charlton can hurt Derby
Derby are weak defending against attacks down the wings and defending against long shots. That’s a green light for Charlton’s wide delivery and for runners arriving late around the box. The key man is James Bree: he’s got 2 goals and 3 assists, and he leads Charlton for yellow cards too — a sign he’s involved in the messy, high-contact moments.
Charlton also “take a lot of shots” and average 11.4 a game in the league. If they can turn that into clean looks — rather than hopeful efforts — Derby’s weakness against long shots becomes relevant.
Where Derby can flip the game
Derby’s finishing is a strength, and they’ve got two reliable routes into the net. Morris gives them a central battering ram, and Agyemang brings movement around him. Add Joe Ward (5 assists) and Callum Elder (3 assists) and you’ve got supply lines from wide areas — exactly the type of service that tests Charlton’s weakness defending against skilful players.
It’s also a discipline game. Derby are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, and Charlton attack set phases hard. One rash tackle, one free kick, one second ball — and the night swings.
Key Moments to Watch
- First-contact battles: Both sides are strong in the air. Whoever wins the first header and the second ball will dictate territory.
- Wide deliveries: Charlton cross often; Derby play with width. Expect the flanks to decide where the game lives.
- Shot quality, not shot count: Charlton shoot more, Derby score more. The team that creates the clearer chances wins the argument.
What could go wrong?
For Charlton, it’s the familiar problem: finishing scoring chances is a weakness, and tight games punish waste. For Derby, it’s game management — protecting the lead is a weakness, and The Valley can turn noisy fast if Charlton sense a wobble.
Best Bet for Charlton vs Derby
Will Survival Grit or Tactical Efficiency Rule at The Valley?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Trend | CHA 1.07/gm; Last 3 home Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Efficiency | CHA 11.4 shots; DER 9.8 shots | Back Derby (DNB) |
| Home Form | CHA 27/31 home unbeaten | Back The Draw |
| Aerial Duel | Jones 5.9; Leaburn 5.8 won | Over 1.5 Goals (No) |
Under 2.5 Goals
The tactical landscape for this Tuesday night fixture points toward a low-scoring, territorial battle. Both Charlton and Derby arrive on the back of narrow 1-0 victories, a result that underscores their current focus on defensive stability over expansive play. Charlton, in particular, have established a clear pattern at The Valley, where their last three Championship matches have all failed to cross the 2.5-goal threshold.
The statistical profile of both teams confirms that possession will not be the priority. Both sides average approximately 42% possession, meaning the ball will spend a significant amount of time in the air. Charlton’s reliance on long balls and crosses is met by Derby’s similar directness. This creates a “washout” effect where the two styles cancel each other out in midfield, resulting in a high number of aerial duels—led by Charlton’s Lloyd Jones and Miles Leaburn—rather than fluid attacking sequences.
Furthermore, while Charlton take a high volume of shots (11.4 per game), their inefficiency in front of goal is a known weakness. They average only 1.07 goals per game. Derby are more clinical but generate fewer opportunities (9.8 shots per game), suggesting they will be content to sit deep and protect a clean sheet. Given that both managers prioritize a combative, direct approach, the match is likely to be decided by a single moment of quality or a set-piece, making the Under 2.5 goals market the most logical play.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk lies in Derby’s weakness at defending long shots and Charlton’s tendency to concede from “skilful players.” If an individual like Carlton Morris or Patrick Agyemang produces a moment of brilliance early on, or if James Bree finds success with his frequent deliveries, the game could open up into a chaotic back-and-forth that defies the historical low-scoring trends.
Correct Score Lean
Charlton 1-1 Derby
Charlton are incredibly difficult to beat at The Valley, having avoided defeat in 27 of their last 31 home fixtures. However, their inability to convert draws into wins—with only 2 victories in their last 13 games overall—suggests they lack the finishing touch to see off a disciplined Derby side. Derby have the superior league position and scoring efficiency, but their weakness in protecting leads often invites pressure late in the game. A 1-1 draw reflects Charlton’s home resilience and Derby’s tactical edge, while staying within the expected low-scoring framework.
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