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Blackburn vs Millwall Predictions lands on Saturday 20 December at 12:30 with two sides sitting in very different parts of the Championship table, but arriving with plenty to chew over. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is supported by Blackburn’s poor home scoring record and a shot conversion rate of just 8%. Millwall enter the game with a makeshift midfield and the potential absence of their leading scorer, Femi Azeez, which significantly reduces their attacking threat. Statistically, both teams average roughly one goal per game, and Millwall’s tendency to draw at half-time (seven times this season) suggests a cautious approach. Given the injuries and the trend of 1-1 or 1-0 results for both clubs, a high-scoring game seems unlikely.
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The 1-1 draw has been one of the most frequent results for Blackburn this season, occurring four times in 20 matches. This scoreline aligns with the data showing Blackburn average 1.00 goal scored and 1.30 conceded per match. Millwall’s recent 3-1 loss showed they are vulnerable on the break, but their 33% clean sheet rate suggests they rarely collapse entirely. With both teams possessing similar xG figures (1.41 vs 1.43), a single goal for each side is a balanced expectation for this encounter.
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Blackburn vs Millwall Predictions and Best Bets
Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Snapshot of the listed 1X2 prices for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall. Percentages shown are implied (from listed odds) for each outcome.
These are Blackburn Rovers’ most common full-time scorelines this season, shown as frequency shares (not a forecast).
Over/Under 2.5 prices are shown as listed, with implied (from listed odds) where applicable. Team season “Over 2.5” rates are included for context.
A quick look at the listed leading scorers: Blackburn’s Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen (6) and Millwall’s Femi Azeez (6) set the headline numbers.
- Millwall sit fourth with 35 points from 21 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 29 — a top-four position built on results, even if clean sheets (7) still feel precious.
- Blackburn are 20th with 22 points from 20 matches, and their home record is 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats — a stark contrast to 5 wins in 10 away games.
- The shot and xG profiles are strikingly close: Blackburn average 12.35 shots and 1.41 xG for per match, while Millwall average 12.76 shots and 1.43 xG for.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
Both sides sit in a similar “game tempo” range, but Millwall’s matches edge slightly higher for total goals on average this season.
With 20 scored and 26 conceded in 20 games, Blackburn’s matches tend to land in the “two or three goals” zone more often than not.
Millwall have 25 scored and 29 conceded across 21 games, which nudges their overall match totals a touch higher than Blackburn’s.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets show how often a team keeps the opposition out completely — a useful marker for how tight the defensive floor can be.
That’s a 20% clean-sheet rate, so Blackburn have more often been in games where one moment at the back can matter.
A 33% clean-sheet rate gives Millwall a stronger base — and it often shapes how long opponents have to stay patient.
Can Millwall fix their transition problem quickly enough at Blackburn?
Millwall are fourth after 21 matches, yet they come into this one with a dent to both rhythm and resources. Last weekend’s 3-1 defeat to Hull City at The Den didn’t just end a four-game unbeaten run — it also forced Neil into more patchwork than he’d have wanted. Camiel Neghli and Alfie Doughty were asked to fill in as a makeshift midfield pairing, with Ra’ees Bangura-Williams used in the 10 role, and that balance was tested when Millwall committed bodies forward and got punished on the break.
Blackburn, meanwhile, are 20th with 20 played and a points-per-game of 1.10. Their overall record sits at 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats, with a clear split between home and away outcomes: one win in 10 at home, but five wins in 10 away. So even before you get into individuals, the shape of the contest is there: Millwall trying to impose themselves despite disruption, Blackburn looking to make home feel like home again.
What follows should be decided by who manages the messy parts best — the transitions, the second balls, the moments when structure breaks and it becomes about who reacts quickest.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Millwall’s headline from the Hull game is how far they were stretched in the middle. Neghli and Doughty “slotted into a makeshift midfield”, while Bangura-Williams played as a 10. That combination tells its own story: roles filled rather than roles owned, with players doing jobs for the team and the manager openly acknowledging how much the side is waiting on bodies returning.
There were also in-game disruptions. Zack Sturge was forced off at half-time after feeling dizzy, with Joe Bryan coming on and, in Neil’s words, looking “really strong second half”. The other key line is disciplinary: Femi Azeez was sent off 15 minutes from time and Neil said he “looks as if he is going to be suspended”. In a squad where Neil also referenced losing where “our goals have come from in recent games”, that matters — not just for output, but for how Millwall threaten and how they press.
Blackburn’s information is less about selection headaches and more about season profile. Their top scorers are Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen (6), Yuki Ohashi (5) and Todd Cantwell (4), with Ryan Alebiousu leading assists (2) alongside Ryan Hedges (2) and Ryoya Morishita (2). In other words: goals and creativity are spread enough that one route being blocked doesn’t have to end the conversation — but their numbers also point towards fine margins, with an 8% shots conversion rate and a goal every 90 minutes on average.
How the Match Could Be Played
Neil’s post-Hull explanation gives away the battleground: transitions. He felt Millwall were “naïve” at times, “committed too many men forward” and were “hit on transition far too often”. He even said the group spoke beforehand about transitions deciding it. That’s not a passing comment — it’s a blueprint for what Millwall will want to tidy up immediately.
If Millwall again have to improvise through the middle, the first question is control. A makeshift midfield can still graft and cover ground, but it often struggles with the small stuff: the angles that stop counters before they start, the positioning that lets you attack without leaving the back door wide open. The description of a bright start — “first five minutes pinned them in” — followed by concession on “the first breakaway” after losing the ball from a throw-in, is basically a warning siren for this trip to Blackburn.
Blackburn’s season stats suggest they can lean into that kind of game. They average 12.35 shots per match and 1.41 xG for per match, with 49% possession on average. That profile isn’t all about sitting in and praying; it points to a side that can have enough of the ball to build attacks, but is also comfortable playing matches where chances arrive in bursts rather than through constant dominance.
Millwall, for their part, average 12.76 shots per match and 1.43 xG for per match, but with only 46% possession on average. That’s the shape of a team that doesn’t mind games being scrappy, direct and contested — and it fits with the transition-heavy narrative Neil laid out. When Millwall push up, the key is the timing of that push. Go too early, and you leave space behind. Go too late, and Blackburn can set their feet and play forward with less pressure.
A lot could hinge on how Millwall compensate if Azeez is absent. His six goals in 13 games makes him the top scorer listed for Millwall, and if he’s missing, the burden shifts towards Mihailo Ivanović (4), Tristan Crama (3), Jake Cooper (3) and Neghli (2). That can change the way Millwall attack: fewer moments of one-player acceleration and more emphasis on collective movement, second-phase pressure, and creating repeat entries into the box rather than waiting for a single spark.
The flip side is that Blackburn’s own goals have been hard-earned. They average 1.00 scored per match and 1.30 conceded, and their most frequent full-time scorelines include 1-2 and 1-1 (four times each). That suggests a contest where nobody is likely to float through on vibes alone. It’s more likely to be decided by who wins the “next action” after turnovers: lose it, hunt it; win it, play forward with purpose.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The table positions frame the pressure points. Millwall are fourth on 35 points from 21 matches; Blackburn are 20th on 22 points from 20 matches. That gap matters because it shapes risk tolerance: Millwall can’t afford to keep giving away transition goals if they want to stay in the top pack, while Blackburn can’t keep turning home games into missed opportunities.
The underlying chance numbers, though, suggest this isn’t automatically a one-way street. Blackburn’s 1.41 xG for per match sits close to Millwall’s 1.43, and both sides take a similar volume of shots: 12.35 for Blackburn, 12.76 for Millwall. That combination hints at a match where territory might swing, but chances could still be relatively even — especially if the game becomes a series of short attacks rather than long spells of control.
Where the differences begin to show is in how cleanly each side turns those moments into outcomes. Blackburn’s shots conversion rate is listed at 8%, while Millwall’s is 9%. Neither screams “clinical”, which makes game management even bigger: if you’re not guaranteed to finish the first good chance, you’d better not give the opposition two cheap ones at the other end.
Defensively, both have similar goals-against totals relative to games played: Millwall have conceded 29 in 21; Blackburn have conceded 26 in 20. Millwall’s clean sheets percentage is 33% (7 in 21), Blackburn’s is 20% (4 in 20). That leans slightly towards Millwall being better at shutting the door entirely — but Neil’s reaction to Hull suggests the door can be left ajar when Millwall over-commit.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is the “shape test” in the middle of the pitch. If Millwall again have players doing unfamiliar jobs, Blackburn will want to stress that with quick switches and repeated transitions: not one counter, but three or four, forcing the midfield to turn, run and make decisions at speed.
The second is what happens immediately after restarts. Neil pointed to losing the ball from a throw-in before being punished on the breakaway. That’s not just an error; it’s a chain reaction — a loose touch, a slow recovery run, a back line asked to defend too much space. In a game where both sides average over 12 shots a match, gifting “broken-field” situations is asking for trouble.
The third is how Millwall replace Azeez’s output if he’s suspended. With Ivanović and Cooper among the next listed scorers, the route to goal may tilt towards more collective chance creation: sustained pressure, bodies arriving, and making Blackburn defend multiple phases rather than hoping one player does something spectacular.
And then there’s the stamina of the contest itself. Blackburn’s most frequent half-time scoreline is 0-1 (eight times), while Millwall’s is 0-0 (seven times). That combination points towards a match that could change sharply after the interval — either through tactical tweaks, fresher legs, or simply the game opening up as patience runs thin.
What could go wrong with this read? One moment of chaos can flip everything: a red card (Millwall have just had one), a single lapse on a set play, or a scruffy deflection turning a contained half into a chase. And in matches where finishing rates are modest, the weird goals count just as much as the pretty ones.
Best Bet for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall
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Under 2.5 Goals
Based on the evidence of both sides’ recent tactical struggles and statistical profiles, a low-scoring affair at Ewood Park appears the most logical outcome. Blackburn Rovers enter this fixture with a goal-scoring average of exactly 1.00 per match and a shots conversion rate of just 8%. Their home form has been a significant hurdle, securing only one victory in ten attempts at Ewood Park this season. While they create a respectable 1.41 xG per match, their inability to convert these chances into goals has led to a pattern of tight, low-scoring results; indeed, their most frequent scorelines this season are 1-2 and 1-1, with four instances of each.
Millwall, despite their high league position, arrive with a heavily disrupted squad that directly impacts their offensive ceiling. The potential absence of Femi Azeez, their leading listed scorer with six goals in 13 games, creates a substantial void in a team that already averages a modest 46% possession. Manager Alex Neil has openly discussed the “makeshift” nature of his midfield, featuring players like Camiel Neghli and Alfie Doughty in unfamiliar roles. This lack of natural balance in the center of the park often results in a more cautious, reactive approach designed to prioritize defensive structure over expansive attacking play.
Furthermore, the statistical history between these two favors a cagey start. Millwall’s most frequent half-time scoreline is 0-0, while Blackburn’s conversion rate suggests they struggle to break down organized blocks. With Millwall having kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches and Blackburn failing to find consistent rhythm at home, the match is likely to be defined by mid-block battles and transition management rather than a high volume of successful finishes. Given the absence of key attacking personnel and both teams’ recent trends toward “Under” results, a total of two goals or fewer is the most supported selection.
What could go wrong? The primary risk to this pick is the “transition” vulnerability highlighted by Alex Neil. If Millwall continue to be “naïve” by committing too many men forward and getting caught on the break, Blackburn’s pace through players like Todd Cantwell or Yuki Ohashi could exploit the space to create high-value chances. Additionally, Millwall’s reliance on set-pieces and aerial duels—where Jake Cooper remains a significant threat—could lead to an early goal that forces the game to open up prematurely.
Correct score lean
1-1 Draw
Rationale
A 1-1 draw is the most consistent projection following the analysis of both teams’ lack of clinical finishing and their tendency to be involved in stalemates. Blackburn have recorded a 1-1 scoreline four times already this season, reflecting their 1.41 xG for and 1.30 goals conceded averages. Millwall, while depleted, possess a resilient defensive structure that has secured seven clean sheets. With Blackburn struggling to win at home (one win in ten) and Millwall dealing with a patchwork midfield, neither side looks equipped to dominate. A shared point with one goal apiece mirrors their shared statistical conversions.
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