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Will Birmingham’s home control hold up against Southampton’s through-ball threat at St Andrew’s? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is supported by the consistent scoring records of both clubs. Birmingham have scored in every home league game this season, while Southampton have matched that feat in every away fixture. Statistically, 83% of Southampton’s matches and 57% of Birmingham’s have seen both sides find the net. With both teams averaging over 14 shots per game and showing defensive frailties—evidenced by Southampton's lack of away clean sheets and Birmingham's recent injury concerns—this encounter has all the hallmarks of an open game where neither side can rely on a shutout.
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A 2-1 win for Southampton reflects their recent dominance, having won the last three head-to-head meetings. While Birmingham’s home scoring streak suggests they will get on the scoresheet, their current five-game winless streak indicates a struggle to see matches out. Southampton’s superior goal tally (37) and the form of Adam Armstrong provide the visitors with a higher attacking ceiling. Given that the reverse fixture ended 3-1 earlier this month, a closely contested 2-1 victory for the away side is a plausible outcome that respects both Birmingham's home resilience and Southampton's historical edge.
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Birmingham’s strong home record (7 wins in 13) positions them as favourites against a Southampton side struggling away from home.
A high probability is assigned to both sides finding the net, with competitive margins reflected in the pricing.
Statistical trends for both sides scoring are very strong, particularly in Southampton’s recent away matches.
- Home comfort meets away turbulence: Birmingham have won 7 of their last 13 home matches, while Southampton have lost 4 of their last 6 away matches in the Championship.
- Shot volume suggests a busy afternoon for both boxes: Birmingham are listed with 356 total shots (14.24 per game) and Southampton 376 (14.46), pointing to two sides who create chances regularly.
- Tight table gap, different goal profiles: Birmingham have 30 points from 23 games with 31 scored and 30 conceded, while Southampton have 31 points with 37 scored and 33 conceded.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Both teams demonstrate high offensive intent, with near-identical numbers for average shots generated across the campaign.
Totaling 356 shots so far, their approach relies on width and persistent pressure.
With 376 total shots, the visitors focus on through balls and individual creative skill.
Match Control: Average Possession %
Expect a battle for the ball, as both sides average over 55% possession and prioritise short passing sequences.
They aim to control play in the opposition half with an 81% pass completion rate.
A slightly higher 84% pass accuracy supports their intricate tactical build-up.
Birmingham City welcome Southampton to St Andrew’s on Monday, with the calendar about to flip and both sides still trying to nail down what they really are in this Championship season. It’s Round 24 of the regular campaign, with Birmingham placed 15th and Southampton 12th in the standings.
The numbers around them are tight enough to keep everyone honest. Birmingham have 30 points from 23 games with 31 scored and 30 conceded, while Southampton sit on 31 points from 23, scoring 37 and conceding 33. One point apart, three places apart, and plenty of football left to argue about.
There’s also a very recent reference point between these two: Southampton beat Birmingham 3-1 on 6 December 2025, leading 2-0 at half-time. Look a little further back in the Championship ledger and it’s been a fixture with goals and swings: a 4-3 Southampton win at St Andrew’s in March 2024, plus a string of Southampton wins in earlier meetings.
Yet St Andrew’s has looked like a place Birmingham can lean on. They’ve won seven of their last 13 home matches, and they’re unbeaten in their last six home games across all competitions. Southampton, meanwhile, have had a tougher time away recently, with four defeats in their last six away matches.
So this feels like a proper test of competing truths: Birmingham’s home resilience versus Southampton’s ability to hurt them head-to-head — and the tactical question of which side can impose its preferred rhythm first.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Birmingham have two defenders listed as unavailable: Bright Osayi-Samuel is noted as called up to the national team until 19 January 2026, while Ethan Laird is out with a hamstring injury. That matters not just for depth, but for profile: Laird’s individual numbers include 86.1% pass completion and 2.3 aerials won per game, while Osayi-Samuel has featured in 10 starts and four substitute appearances.
A possible Birmingham starting XI is set out in a familiar shape: James Beadle in goal; Tomoki Iwata, Phil Neumann, Jack Robinson and Eiran Cashin across the back; Marc Leonard and Paik Seung-Ho as the midfield pair; Patrick Roberts, Jay Stansfield and Lewis Koumas behind Marvin Ducksch.
That gives Birmingham a front line with multiple scoring points. Stansfield has eight Championship goals and three assists, Demarai Gray has five goals and four assists (even if he’s not in the suggested XI), and Ducksch has three goals from 11 starts and three substitute appearances. The likely weak spot is the reshuffle in defensive personnel, with Robinson and Cashin asked to bring stability in a back line missing listed options.
Southampton’s possible XI looks set up in a different structure: Gavin Bazunu in goal; Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood and Jack Stephens as a back three; Tom Fellows and Ryan Manning as the width; Caspar Jander and Flynn Downes in the middle; Finn Azaz and Léo Scienza behind Adam Armstrong.
That selection aligns neatly with the formation summary showing Southampton using a 3-4-2-1 across 13 matches, and it points to a side built around combinations between the lines. Armstrong is the obvious spearhead: 11 goals and four assists in the league, with 3.3 shots per game. Scienza adds craft and end product from deeper, with three goals and three assists and a 7.20 rating, while Azaz has six goals and three assists.
The team news, then, frames a match where Birmingham’s home confidence meets a Southampton side with clear attacking structure — but also documented weaknesses in defending counter attacks and aerial duels.
How the Match Could Be Played
On paper, this is a fascinating one because both sides are described as possession-focused, but they get there in slightly different ways.
Birmingham’s style notes include short passes, possession football, playing with width, attempting crosses often, and controlling the game in the opposition’s half. They also have “aggressive” in the mix. That suggests a team that wants to squeeze the pitch, keep play in Southampton’s territory, and generate attacks through sustained pressure and wide deliveries.
Southampton are labelled as a possession team too, again built on short passes — but with a major extra ingredient: they “attempt through balls often” and have “very strong” markers for creating chances using through balls, long shot opportunities, and individual skill. Add in “shooting from direct free kicks” as “very strong”, and you’re looking at a side that can turn a settled spell into a chance with one disguised pass or one set-piece moment.
So where does this likely meet? Birmingham’s possible 4-2-3-1 gives them a natural central box: two holders, a 10, and a striker. Against Southampton’s 3-4-2-1, the key early battle could be who owns the spaces either side of Southampton’s central midfielders. If Birmingham can lock that area down with Leonard and Paik and stop Scienza and Azaz receiving on the half-turn, Southampton’s through-ball game gets crowded out. If they can’t, those two pockets become launchpads.
Wide areas feel equally decisive. Birmingham want to play with width and cross often; Southampton will likely use wing-backs (Fellows and Manning in the suggested XI) to provide both coverage and an outlet. That creates a repeating tactical question: can Birmingham’s wide players pin the wing-backs deep and turn Southampton’s back three, or do Southampton’s wing-backs push high enough to trap Birmingham’s full-backs and force turnovers?
Birmingham’s suggested right side is Iwata behind Roberts, with Koumas on the other flank. Roberts brings production with two goals and two assists, and his role in a 4-2-3-1 often becomes about receiving between lines and sliding passes into the striker or wide runners. Stansfield, listed as the central attacking midfielder, offers a direct goal threat even when he’s not the one finishing the move. If Birmingham can keep him close to Ducksch, you can picture quick combinations around the edge of the box, plus second-phase pressure when crosses are half-cleared.
Southampton’s threats are more obviously layered. Armstrong is the finisher and the volume shooter, while Scienza and Azaz sit in the pockets and look for the slip pass. With Manning supplying width and a strong set-piece profile attached to the team, Southampton can create danger without needing long, slow build-up spells. A single well-timed through ball can change the story of a match in a heartbeat — especially if Birmingham are brave enough to push their line up and “control the game in the opposition’s half”.
The match state matters, too. Birmingham are described as strong at protecting the lead, while Southampton have “protecting the lead” flagged as weak. If Birmingham get themselves in front, the question becomes whether they can turn that strength into a calmer second half, limiting transitions and forcing Southampton to build against a set block. If Southampton score first, their ability to keep control of what happens next becomes part of the intrigue.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table because it explains the pressure and the possibility. Birmingham’s 30 points from 23 games and Southampton’s 31 from 23 suggests a match between sides living in the same neighbourhood, even if their goals totals are different: Southampton have scored 37 to Birmingham’s 31, which hints at a slightly higher attacking ceiling.
The home-and-away split backs up the mood around the fixture. Birmingham have won seven of their last 13 home matches, and their recent home run shows four wins and two draws in the last six at St Andrew’s. That isn’t just “good form”; it suggests a team that can repeatedly produce goals and control at home, with scorelines like 4-1, 4-0, 4-0 appearing in that sequence — the kind of results that speak to sustained dominance rather than snatched moments.
Southampton’s away run shows four defeats in their last six, matching the note that they’ve lost 67% of their last six away Championship matches. That matters tactically because it can push a team into caution, but Southampton’s trends add a twist: in 12 of their most recent away Championship matches, both teams scored. In other words, their away games have often become open enough for chances at both ends, regardless of the result.
The shot and possession numbers hint at why. Birmingham are listed with 356 total shots at 14.24 per game, Southampton with 376 at 14.46 per game — near-identical volume, suggesting both sides can create a steady stream of attempts. Possession is high for both too: Birmingham at 56% and Southampton at 57% in the same snapshot, with pass accuracy at 81% and 84% respectively. That combination points towards a match where the ball won’t just be “cleared and chased” all afternoon; it’s more likely to be an exchange of territory and control, with each side trying to pin the other back.
Then there’s the head-to-head context: Southampton have won four of the last six meetings overall, and Birmingham have lost their last three games against Southampton across all competitions. That doesn’t decide what happens here, but it does create a psychological and tactical hook — Southampton have found ways to hurt Birmingham in this match-up, and Birmingham have to show they can block off those routes.
Key “Moments” to Watch
Watch the space behind Birmingham’s full-backs when they push on. Birmingham want width and crossings; Southampton want through balls. That’s a classic “who blinks first?” dynamic. If Birmingham lose the ball with bodies committed forward, the first pass into Scienza or Azaz could be the trigger for Armstrong running the channel.
Keep an eye on the striker zones. Birmingham’s likely set-up puts Ducksch up top with Stansfield close, and that pairing can turn half-chances into real pressure simply by arriving together in the box. Southampton’s central defenders — Harwood-Bellis, Wood and Stephens in the suggested XI — will be dealing with crosses, cutbacks, and second balls. The aerial theme matters because Southampton’s weaknesses include aerial duels being very weak, while Birmingham have players like Christoph Klarer winning five aerials per game (even if he isn’t named in the suggested XI, his presence in the squad profile underlines the team’s capability in that department).
Set pieces should have a say as well. Southampton are strong at attacking set pieces and very strong at shooting from direct free kicks, but also weak defending set pieces. That creates the rare scenario where the same stoppage can feel dangerous at both ends: it’s not just about what you win, it’s about what you concede immediately after.
What could go wrong with this read? The biggest risk is that it assumes the match settles into a chess game of possession, structure and considered transitions. If it turns into something scrappier — early cards, a chaotic goal, or repeated turnovers — the neat shape-versus-shape story can dissolve. Fine margins then take over: a single set-piece delivery, one slipped runner, or one defensive decision made half a second late.
Best Bet for Birmingham City vs Southampton
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Both Teams to Score
The offensive profiles of both Birmingham City and Southampton suggest a high probability of goals at both ends. Birmingham have maintained a remarkable record of finding the net in 11 consecutive home league matches this campaign, showing that their tactical preference for width and frequent crossing often pays dividends at St Andrew’s. This scoring consistency is mirrored by Southampton, who have scored in 12 straight away fixtures in the Championship. With both sides averaging over 14 shots per game, the statistical volume supports a match defined by attacking exchanges rather than defensive attrition.
Southampton’s defensive trends further reinforce this selection. While they possess a clinical attack spearheaded by Adam Armstrong, who has 11 goals and four assists, they have struggled to maintain shutouts on the road. In 12 of their most recent away league matches, both teams have managed to score. This is partly due to their expansive 3-4-2-1 system, which creates chances through intricate through balls but often leaves gaps for opponents to exploit on the counter-attack. Birmingham’s own defensive stability is currently tested by the absence of key personnel like Bright Osayi-Samuel and Ethan Laird, meaning they may find it difficult to contain Southampton’s “very strong” ability to create chances through individual skill.
Furthermore, the recent head-to-head history is littered with goals. The last meeting between these two on 6 December 2025 ended 3-1 to Southampton, and a previous encounter earlier in 2024 was a seven-goal thriller that finished 4-3. Given that Birmingham average 1.35 goals per game and Southampton average 1.61, the tactical setups of two possession-heavy teams—averaging 56% and 57% respectively—are likely to result in an open contest where both backlines are breached.
What could go wrong
The main risk to this pick is a potential tactical stalemate if both managers adopt a more cautious approach to avoid further mid-table slippage. If Birmingham successfully use their holding midfielders to block the “pockets” where Southampton’s creative players operate, they could stifle the game’s rhythm. Additionally, a lack of clinical finishing from Marvin Ducksch or Jay Stansfield could see Birmingham fail to convert their home dominance into the required goal.
Correct score lean
Southampton to win 2-1
A 2-1 victory for the visitors aligns with the historical and statistical evidence of Southampton’s recent superiority in this fixture. Southampton have won the last three meetings against Birmingham, frequently scoring multiple goals in those victories. Their superior attacking efficiency—ranking fourth in the league for goals scored with 37—gives them a slight edge over a Birmingham side that has struggled for wins lately. While Birmingham’s strong home form suggests they will contribute to the scoreline, their current five-game winless run and defensive absences make them vulnerable to a clinical Southampton attack that excels at through balls and individual brilliance.
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