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Can Inter Turn San Siro Into Liverpool’s Breaking Point In This Champions League Showdown?
Inter Milan are preparing to welcome Liverpool to the San Siro on Tuesday night in a Champions League league-phase clash that feels far more loaded than a standard Gameweek 6 fixture. Both teams are well placed to qualify, yet the subplots are chaotic, emotional and – in Liverpool’s case – bordering on soap-opera territory. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Our main prediction focuses on the collision between Leverkusen’s structured attacking game and Newcastle’s unbalanced away profile. The hosts are scoring freely, especially at the BayArena, and their underlying metrics show sustained pressure with most shots coming from dangerous central areas. Newcastle’s defence is stretched by injuries and has not delivered a clean sheet in six matches, while their European away record is poor. Yet their attacking numbers – high shot volumes and efficient finishers such as Barnes and Woltemade – indicate they are very likely to net. Combining a Leverkusen victory with both teams scoring captures all those dynamics in a single, coherent angle.
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The 3–1 correct score prediction reflects the clash between Inter’s balanced dominance and Liverpool’s extreme volatility. Inter’s average of three goals per Champions League match and their habit of scoring in seventeen of their last eighteen home league-phase games suggest they can easily produce two or three here. Liverpool’s numbers point to both threat and vulnerability: they score two per game in Europe, but concede 1.6 and have allowed goals in every away match in this campaign. That profile favours Liverpool grabbing a goal through their attacking talent, yet their defensive instability and off-field turmoil make a two-goal Inter margin very realistic.
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Inter Milan vs Liverpool Predictions and Best Bets
Inter Milan vs Liverpool — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our Inter Milan vs Liverpool analysis.
Inter’s formidable Champions League home record and Liverpool’s defensive volatility tilt the 1X2 market towards a home win, with the draw and away victory priced as less likely outcomes.
Modelled prices point towards Inter edging a high-tempo game by one or two goals, with Liverpool’s attacking threat still leaving room for competitive, multi-goal scorelines.
Inter’s three-goals-per-game average and Liverpool’s 3.6-goal European contests push markets towards an open encounter with multiple scoring chances at both ends.
Lautaro Martínez leads Inter’s threat with heavy shot volume, while Dominik Szoboszlai and Hugo Ekitiké headline Liverpool’s forward output in this Champions League clash.
- Inter’s home domination
- Inter are unbeaten in eighteen consecutive Champions League home games, winning fifteen and drawing three, and they have taken ten victories in their last eleven league-phase fixtures at San Siro.
- Goal metrics point to a lively encounter
- Inter average three goals per Champions League match with 2.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, while Liverpool’s European fixtures average 3.6 goals with two for and 1.6 against.
- Martínez vs Liverpool’s fragile back line
- Lautaro Martínez has produced seventeen shots and eight on target across four Champions League matches, while Liverpool concede 1.6 goals in Europe and 1.89 across all recent competitions.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per Champions League Game
Both Inter Milan and Liverpool bring lively game states into Europe, with goals-per-match data hinting at another open, high-tempo contest at San Siro.
Inter score around 2.4 and concede just 0.6 per game in this campaign, blending attacking punch with a defensive platform that rarely allows chaotic scorelines to run away.
Liverpool’s European fixtures combine strong attacking output with lapses at the back, averaging two scored and 1.6 conceded, turning most games into emotionally exhausting roller-coasters.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
Goals conceded per game provide a clean snapshot of how often each defence bends or breaks under pressure in the Champions League group/league phase.
Inter’s back line, shielded by a diligent midfield, has allowed just 0.6 goals per game and only seven in their last eleven home league-phase fixtures, underlining real control without the ball.
Liverpool concede 1.6 per game in Europe and around 1.89 across recent competitions, with every away Champions League outing featuring at least one goal against them.
Scoring Reliability: Home and Away Patterns
Inter’s consistency in front of their own fans and Liverpool’s habit of being involved in open away games highlight how often goals appear in this fixture profile.
Inter have scored in seventeen of their last eighteen Champions League home league-phase matches, with Lautaro Martínez’s volume of chances keeping them dangerous around the box throughout.
Liverpool have conceded in every away Champions League match this season, reinforcing the expectation that their trips produce chances at both ends and rarely stay quiet for long.
Inter are sitting fourth in the 36-team table with 12 points from five matches, level with Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain and just three behind leaders Arsenal. That is elite company, and it reflects how efficiently Cristian Chivu’s side have gone about their business in Europe, brushing aside Kairat, Union SG, Slavia Prague and Ajax before a late 2-1 setback at Atletico Madrid.
Liverpool, in contrast, arrive as a side who are trying to keep their Champions League campaign insulated from domestic turbulence. They are 13th in the league phase with nine points from five games, just a point outside the top eight, but their recent days have been spent firefighting rather than cruising. That 4-1 capitulation to PSV Eindhoven was not just a defeat; it matched an unwanted 96-year-old record, becoming their third home loss by three or more goals in this season alone. When your history books are dragged out in December and not in a good way, pressure skyrockets.
Inter’s fortress vs Liverpool’s fragility
From a performance-data angle, Inter are walking into this one with a swagger that borders on arrogance – and frankly, they have earned it. The Nerazzurri are unbeaten in their last eighteen Champions League home matches, winning fifteen and drawing three. In the group/league phase, they have triumphed in ten of their last eleven home games and conceded only seven goals in that entire run. That is not just a good record; that is structural dominance.
This season, Inter average three goals per Champions League game, with 2.4 scored and just 0.6 conceded. They have hit twelve goals in five fixtures, and the numbers are backed by clear patterns on the pitch: dynamic wing-backs, a midfield capable of controlling tempo and winning duels, and a front line that punishes even tiny positional mistakes.
Lautaro Martínez is the central figure in that attacking machine, and his output is bordering on ridiculous. He has scored in each of his last five Champions League home appearances for Inter, registering eight goals in that stretch. Across four Champions League matches this term he has taken seventeen shots, eight of them on target. Against Slavia Prague he fired four shots, three on target; against Union SG and Kairat he racked up five attempts in each, twice hitting the target in both games. Even away at Atletico Madrid, where Inter lost, he still produced three efforts and one on target. When a striker maintains that level of volume, you are not talking about hot finishing streaks – you are talking about sustainable, repeatable threat.
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Around him, Marcus Thuram adds physicality and intelligent movement, while the supply line of Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Piotr Zieliński links ball progression with chance creation. Federico Dimarco and Augusto offer width and delivery, and the back three of Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni and Francesco Acerbi shield Yann Sommer with a blend of composure and aggression. Even when Denzel Dumfries is only fit enough for the bench and Matteo Darmian remains sidelined, the structure stays intact.
Liverpool’s roller-coaster: goals, chaos and a mutinous mood
Liverpool’s Champions League story this season is wild enough to make their Premier League campaign look almost rational. They have beaten Real Madrid 1-0 at Anfield, smashed Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 and edged Atletico Madrid 3-2, but they have also been dismantled 4-1 at home by PSV. Their five Champions League matches average 3.6 goals, with two scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
Defensively, the metrics scream instability. They have conceded in every away match in this Champions League campaign, and across all competitions in their recent run they have four wins, two draws and nine defeats, shipping 1.89 goals on average. Another quirk: none of their last thirty-one European group-stage games has finished level. When Liverpool are around, you usually get a winner and you often get bedlam.
The 3-3 draw at Leeds sums them up: 3-0 up, then 3-2 in front, then conceding in the 96th minute. That would be painful enough on its own, but it was followed by Mohamed Salah, an unused substitute, publicly accusing the club of throwing him under the bus and stating that his relationship with Arne Slot is effectively broken. For a club that prides itself on unity, that is a grenade lobbed into the dressing room.
Speculation that Slot is close to the sack is hardly subtle. Many observers believe that a defeat at San Siro could be the final straw. Fans are split, with some backing Salah and others supporting Slot, and the risk – however controversial it sounds – is that a section of the squad might not be giving the manager their full backing. If you are travelling to a team with Inter’s home record, that is an awful time to test your internal politics.
On the pitch, Liverpool still have quality, of course. Alisson remains a top-level goalkeeper. Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté (or Joe Gomez if he is preferred) can still dominate aerially, Conor Bradley has returned from injury and may continue at right-back, and Milos Kerkez or Andrew Robertson provide the left-side outlet. In midfield, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Curtis Jones, Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai offer technical security and forward thrust. Up front, Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitiké give movement and finishing, while the Salah question hovers over everything. Is he trusted to start after those comments? Does he remain on the bench as an awkward super-sub? Whichever way Slot leans, the noise around him will be deafening.
Tactical shapes and emotional currents
Inter are expected to line up in their familiar 3-5-2: Sommer in goal, a back three of Bisseck, Akanji and Bastoni, Dimarco and Augusto wide, Barella, Çalhanoğlu and Zieliński in central areas, with Thuram and Martínez up front. This system allows Inter to overload central zones while still attacking from the flanks, and it has been refined to the point where they can press high when needed yet drop into a compact block without losing their threat.
Liverpool are likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 shape. One projected XI includes Alisson behind Bradley, Konaté, van Dijk and Kerkez, with Gravenberch and Mac Allister deeper and a line of Wirtz, Szoboszlai and Gakpo supporting Ekitiké. Another configuration has Jones in midfield and Robertson at left-back, with Chiesa also an option further forward. The common theme is an attacking posture: Liverpool rarely travel anywhere with a low-block mindset, and that bravery – or recklessness, depending on your mood – is part of what makes this tie so intriguing for bettors.
Emotionally, you have a cold, ruthless Inter machine against a Liverpool side who look brilliant for thirty minutes, then self-destruct, then complain about the fireworks. It is a match-up of a team who are quietly furious they missed out on a double last season and are now chasing everything again, against a side who won the Premier League under Slot but now look like they forgot how to do the basics. If you enjoy drama, this is your kind of game.
Best Bet for Inter Milan vs Liverpool Predictions
Here at BettingTips4You we go against the trend of drowning readers in countless markets. For every match, including this blockbuster at San Siro, we select a single, standout prediction that we judge to be the strongest value play after weighing all the numbers, the tactical angles and the psychological context. We prefer quality over quantity: one clear line, not a confusing shopping list. That approach makes it easier for you to focus, avoids “tip paralysis” and keeps us accountable, because our profitability can be assessed on a simple, event-by-event basis.
For Inter Milan vs Liverpool, our ultimate selection is…
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Inter to win
The logic behind backing Inter outright starts with their outrageous home profile in this competition. Eighteen Champions League matches at San Siro without defeat, with fifteen wins and three draws, is not just a purple patch – it is a sample that screams sustainability. Crucially, they have taken ten wins from their last eleven home league-phase fixtures, conceding a mere seven goals in that whole sequence. When you pair that defensive resolve with an attack averaging three goals per match this season, with 2.4 scored and just 0.6 conceded, the balance is heavily tilted towards the Nerazzurri.
Lautaro Martínez’s output gives this bet an extra layer of confidence. Seventeen shots and eight on target across four Champions League games show relentless involvement rather than streaky finishing. He has found the net in each of his last five Champions League home appearances, scoring eight times. That level of consistent shot volume, combined with the creative supply from Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Zieliński, Dimarco and Augusto, makes it far more likely that Inter maintain their scoring rate than suddenly fall quiet.
Liverpool’s numbers and their internal situation point the other way. They concede 1.6 goals per Champions League match and 1.89 across all competitions in their recent run, and they have let in at least one goal in every away fixture in this European campaign. Their form line of four wins, two draws and nine defeats in all competitions is the profile of a side who oscillate between exhilarating and catastrophic. The chaotic 3-3 draw at Leeds, where they surrendered a 3-0 lead and still failed to close the game out after going 3-2 up again, underlines how fragile their game-management is.
Add the Salah-Slot saga, with the Egyptian accusing the club of throwing him under the bus and effectively declaring his relationship with the head coach dead, and you have a squad walking into one of the most intimidating stadiums in Europe while carrying a political time bomb. Even if Liverpool raise their level in Europe – as they often do – Inter’s cohesion, home record and momentum give them the edge.
BettingTips4You.com expert quote – “When you line up Inter’s home metrics against Liverpool’s defensive and dressing-room chaos, the value sits on a straightforward outcome: Inter are simply more reliable over 90 minutes.”
In short, Inter combine elite underlying numbers, a ruthless attacking leader in Martínez, a disciplined structure and a serene camp. Liverpool carry threat, but they also bring volatility, leaks at the back and a manager under siege. Over one night at San Siro, we want our money on stability rather than drama, and that means Inter to win.
Likely Correct Score: Inter Milan 3–1 Liverpool
While recent head-to-head clashes between these sides have been low-scoring, with all four previous meetings ending under three goals and at least one team failing to score, current profiles tell a different story. Inter are averaging three goals per Champions League game and Liverpool’s matches sit at 3.6, with the Reds scoring two but conceding 1.6 on average. Inter have scored in seventeen of their last eighteen home league-phase matches, whereas Liverpool have conceded in every away Champions League tie this season.
Putting those strands together, we expect Inter’s front line, powered by Martínez and Thuram, to create enough high-quality chances to score multiple times, while Liverpool’s attacking unit still has enough talent in Ekitiké, Gakpo, Szoboszlai and Wirtz to threaten at least once, even under pressure. The most plausible balance between Inter’s control and Liverpool’s volatility points us towards a 3–1 home win, with the hosts pulling clear in the second half as the visitors’ defensive lapses resurface.
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