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Can Borussia Dortmund turn Signal Iduna Park into a top-eight push, or will Inter land a late league-phase blow? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale▾
Dortmund have scored 19 goals in 7 European games, while Inter average 17.6 shots per match. Both teams exhibit a specific weakness in protecting leads, making a high-scoring exchange at Signal Iduna Park the most statistically likely outcome for this top-eight deciding clash.
Read Rationale▾
With Dortmund netting 19 times and Inter firing relentless shots, a high-scoring draw reflects the parity between 14th and 16th place. Neither side possesses the defensive stability to hold a clean sheet, particularly with Dortmund’s 15 goals conceded in the league phase so far.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Inter Milan Predictions and Best Bets
Dortmund vs Inter — William Hill Market Snapshot
Market snapshot featuring pricing from William Hill for this Champions League fixture.
William Hill pricing gives Inter Milan the edge at Signal Iduna Park, with Dortmund as the home underdogs.
- Dortmund score like entertainers, not survivors: They’ve hit 19 goals in 7 Champions League games, with only Arsenal, Bayern Munich and PSG scoring more in the league phase.
- Inter bring heavy-volume football: In the Champions League they’re firing 17.6 shots per game with 55.5% possession and 87.0% pass accuracy, built to squeeze opponents in their own half.
- The margins are tight in the table: Dortmund sit 16th on 11 points while Inter are 14th on 12, so one sharp spell could swing who finishes ahead.
Attacking Volume: Shot on Target Expectations
A look at the primary attacking threats for both clubs based on current technical data.
Serhou Guirassy remains the central focus for the German side’s offensive output.
Lautaro Martinez leads the line for the Italian giants with high expected involvement.
Signal Iduna Park gets the final-matchday tension it loves. Borussia Dortmund are still swinging for a top-eight finish in the league phase, and they host an Inter side sitting one point ahead in the table. Both have taken knocks recently — Dortmund were beaten 2-0 away at Tottenham, while Inter lost 1-3 to Arsenal — but neither arrives in panic.
This feels more like a duel for position than survival. Dortmund can go at it, backed by a home Champions League run that’s been stubbornly hard to crack, and a league-phase attack that’s lit up the competition. Kick-off is at 20:00, and the question is simple: who controls the terms when the knockout places are finally decided?
Team News & Lineups
Borussia Dortmund absences
- M. Sabitzer (calf problems).
- E. Can (adductor pain).
- P. Drewes (no eligibility, until 29.01.2026).
- S. Özcan (no eligibility, until 29.01.2026).
Inter Milan absences
- No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Borussia Dortmund:
Kobel; Anton, (Emre Can), Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Bensebaini; Adeyemi, Brandt; Guirassy
Inter Milan:
Sommer; Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni; Henrique, Zielinski, Barella, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez
What it means on the pitch
- If Emre Can can’t go, Dortmund’s build-up and leadership in the middle of that back line takes a hit — and it could stress their “protecting the lead” weakness.
- Inter’s XI screams chance creation: Dimarco supplying, Çalhanoglu not listed in the XI but still a key squad figure, and the forward pair of Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram built to convert pressure into goals.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Champions League) | Borussia Dortmund | Inter Milan |
|---|---|---|
| League phase rank / points | 16th / 11 | 14th / 12 |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-2 | 4-0-3 |
| Goals (GF-GA) | 19-15 | 13-7 |
| Shots per game | 12.1 | 17.6 |
| Possession % | 56.0% | 55.5% |
| Pass % | 85.6% | 87.0% |
| Aerials won | 10.6 | 14.9 |
Dortmund bring the goals and a control-based style, but Inter arrive with a higher shot volume and a tighter goals-against record in Europe. Expect long spells of structured possession — and a match that swings on who finishes the better chances when the tempo spikes.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Dortmund’s approach: central control, quick combinations, and feeding Guirassy
Niko Kovač’s Dortmund want to control the game in the opposition’s half, using short passes and an attack-through-the-middle identity. That suits the home crowd and fits their league-phase output: 19 goals tells you they’re not passing for the sake of it.
The danger? Dortmund’s own profile flags protecting the lead as a weakness. When they get in front, the job isn’t automatically done — and against an Inter side that can keep creating, game management matters as much as the opener. In attack, it’s about speed around the box: Julian Brandt knitting play, Karim Adeyemi punching into space, and Serhou Guirassy offering a focal point (and 3.2 aerials won in the league, a handy platform for direct moments).
Inter’s approach: sustained pressure, wide supply, and finishing power
Inter’s strengths read like a warning label. They’re very strong at creating chances, finishing, attacking set pieces, and creating chances through individual skill. Add through balls and an ability to win aerial duels, and you get a side that can attack in multiple ways without changing shape.
With 59% possession in their broader numbers and 55.5% in the Champions League, Inter are comfortable squeezing opponents. Federico Dimarco (5 goals, 7 assists, 7.50 rating) is a constant threat from the left, while Lautaro Martínez (12 goals, 4 assists) brings the ruthlessness.
The key mismatch: Dortmund’s entertainers vs Inter’s shot machine
Dortmund’s shots in Europe (12.1 per game) are healthy, but Inter’s are relentless (17.6). If Dortmund can keep the ball and turn transitions into quick entries, Inter’s “protecting the lead” weakness can be poked. If Inter pin Dortmund back, the home side’s finishing needs to be sharp — because chances might come in bursts, not a steady stream.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces: Inter are very strong attacking set pieces and very strong defending them too — Dortmund must make dead balls count when they get them.
- Wide supply vs central lanes: Dortmund want to hurt through the middle; Inter can attack down the wings and also thread through balls. Whoever blocks the “easy” route forces the other into risk.
- Discipline and game rhythm: Dortmund show 3 red cards in the broader disciplinary totals, Inter 0 — if the match turns fractious, keeping 11 on the pitch matters.
- Early momentum: Inter’s average first-goal event time shows 32′, Dortmund’s 42′ — the first big swing could arrive before half-time.
What could go wrong?
For Dortmund, chasing the top-eight dream too aggressively can leave gaps — and Inter have the individual quality to punish one broken line. For Inter, high control doesn’t automatically mean safety: Dortmund have scored freely in this league phase, and if the visitors switch off after taking a lead, they’ve got their own issues protecting it.
Best Bet for Borussia Dortmund vs Inter Milan
Champions League Final Matchday: Who Secures the Top Eight?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | BVB 19 goals; Inter 17.6 shots/gm | BTTS & Over 2.5 |
| Defense | BVB 15 GA; Inter 7 GA | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Rank | 16th (11pts) vs 14th (12pts) | Back the Draw |
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
The tactical reality at Signal Iduna Park points to a high-scoring encounter where defensive discipline takes a backseat to offensive necessity. Borussia Dortmund are the competition’s primary entertainers, having secured 19 goals in just seven Champions League fixtures. Only the absolute elite of European football—Arsenal, Bayern, and PSG—have outscored them in this phase. This means the home side possesses a prolific scoring rate that is difficult for any visiting defense to suppress over ninety minutes.
Inter Milan counter this with a relentless shot-heavy system. They average 17.6 shots per game and maintain 55.5% possession in Europe. This high-volume approach puts immense pressure on a Dortmund backline that has already conceded 15 goals. With Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram operating in front of a creative supply line featuring Federico Dimarco, Inter have the individual skill and through-ball capability to exploit the gaps in Dortmund’s defensive structure.
The shared weakness between these two giants is the inability to protect a lead. Both squads find it difficult to consolidate their position once they go ahead, often inviting immediate pressure. Because both sides are chasing a top-eight finish and are separated by just a single point, neither can afford to sit back. The data confirms a high-scoring environment where both attacks are significantly more reliable than their respective defenses.
What could go wrong?
Dortmund might suffer from the absence of Emre Can or Sabitzer, leading to a loss of central control that stalls their transition play. If Inter chooses to leverage their 14.9 aerials won per game to purely defend deep and play for a point, the match could potentially stay under the goal threshold, though their high shot volume makes a scoreless outcome highly improbable.
Correct Score Lean
Dortmund 2-2 Inter Milan
This scoreline is the logical conclusion of two high-shot-volume teams meeting with everything to play for. Dortmund’s scoring rate of nearly three goals per game at home is met by Inter’s 17.6 shots per game. Since both teams are flagged for their inability to protect a lead, a seesaw battle is expected. The one-point difference in the table suggests a level of parity that often results in a draw, while the combined attacking stats make a 0-0 or 1-1 less likely than a high-scoring 2-2 deadlock.
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