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Can Bayer Leverkusen seize their BayArena lifeline, or do Villarreal have one last twist left in Europe? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Leverkusen are technical favorites but struggle with clean sheets, conceding 14 goals in 7 UCL games. Villarreal take 14.9 shots per game and are lethal on counters. With both teams showing defensive weaknesses and a combined 29 goals conceded in the league phase, both should score in a home win.
Read Rationale ▾
Leverkusen have superior passing (86.9%) and home advantage, making them likely victors. However, their weakness in defending counter-attacks suggests Villarreal will find the net. Given Villarreal’s 35th-place ranking and Leverkusen’s consistent attacking output, a narrow 2-1 home victory is the most statistically likely scoreline.
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Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal Predictions and Best Bets
Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Based on the 1/2 home price, Leverkusen have a significant statistical advantage as they look to secure their knockout spot at the BayArena.
Both Teams to Score is priced as a likely outcome (4/7), reflecting both teams’ attacking shot volume and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Leverkusen’s margin for error is thin: They sit 20th on 9 points with a Champions League record of 2-3-2, and a -4 goal difference after conceding 14 in seven games.
- Villarreal’s European campaign has sunk fast: The Yellow Submarine are 35th on 1 point with 0 wins in 7, and they’ve lost their last five Champions League matches.
- This could be a shot-heavy night: Leverkusen average 11.9 shots per game in the Champions League, while Villarreal average 14.9 — plenty of pressure, plenty of moments.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
BayArena gets a Champions League tie with proper bite. Bayer Leverkusen host Villarreal needing a positive result to keep knockout hopes alive, still within touching distance but with no room for another flat night. That urgency has been sharpened by the league-phase table: Leverkusen are 20th, Villarreal are 35th and staring at elimination after a torrid European run.
Leverkusen do arrive with a steadier heartbeat. A 1-0 home win over Werder Bremen has lifted the mood after a difficult spell, and it sets the tone for a decisive evening. Kick-off is at 20:00, and the pattern looks clear: Leverkusen will want control and territory, Villarreal will want chaos and counter-attacks.
Team News & Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen absences
- Edmond Tapsoba (muscle injury).
- Eliesse Ben Seghir (ankle injury).
- Nathan Tella (foot injury).
- Martin Terrier (no eligibility, until 29.01.2026).
Villarreal absences
- No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen:
Blaswich; Quansah, Andrich, Badé; Vázquez, Fernández, García, Grimaldo; Maza, Poku; Schick
Villarreal:
Tenas; Cardona, Veiga, Marín, Navarro; Moleiro, Gueye, Parejo, Pépé; Oluwaseyi, Moreno
What it means on the pitch
- Tapsoba missing removes a proven presence at the back, and Leverkusen already show vulnerabilities in stopping opponents from creating chances and protecting the lead.
- Villarreal’s shape points to a midfield that can spring counters through Parejo and runners like Moleiro and Pépé, but their “avoid individual errors” weakness is a real red flag in a high-pressure away fixture.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| League phase rank / points | 20th / 9 | 35th / 1 |
| UCL record (W-D-L) | 2-3-2 | 0-1-6 |
| UCL goals (GF-GA) | 10-14 | 5-15 |
| Shots per game (UCL) | 11.9 | 14.9 |
| Possession % (UCL) | 50.1% | 43.0% |
| Pass % (UCL) | 86.9% | 83.3% |
| Aerials won (UCL) | 9.7 | 8.1 |
This sets up as a game of control versus punch. Leverkusen have the cleaner passing and more of the ball, while Villarreal take lots of shots despite struggling to turn them into Champions League goals. If Leverkusen dominate territory, Villarreal’s counters will have to be ruthless — because they’ve conceded 15 in the league phase and errors have hurt them.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Leverkusen’s plan: central control, through balls, and Grimaldo’s edge
Under Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen lean into possession football, short passes, and an attack through the middle, with a willingness to take long shots and attempt through balls often. That’s a direct invitation to play in Villarreal’s half and keep the visitors’ back line making decisions for 90 minutes.
The names in this XI fit the blueprint. Aleix García brings security (and 93.3% pass accuracy in the league), Ibrahim Maza offers incision between the lines, and Patrik Schick is the finisher who can turn one clean chance into the net. The wide balance matters too: Alejandro Grimaldo is both supply and threat — 5 goals and 4 assists in the league, plus a 7.35 rating.
But there’s a sting in the tail. Leverkusen are weak defending counter attacks and weak protecting the lead. If they commit bodies forward and get sloppy in rest-defence, this can flip quickly.
Villarreal’s plan: sit in, spring out, and shoot early
Villarreal’s identity screams counter. They’re very strong on counter attacks, and their style points to playing in their own half, then breaking through through balls and right-sided thrust. Even in a poor Champions League campaign, they average 14.9 shots per game — they’ll back themselves to create moments.
The route is clear: win it, release it. Dani Parejo as the organiser, Alberto Moleiro (8 league goals) as the carrier, and Gerard Moreno (5 league goals, 7.19 rating) as the man to finish or link.
Where it’s won
Leverkusen want to pin Villarreal back and force mistakes. Villarreal want to bait pressure and strike into the space behind. If the first 20 minutes are all Leverkusen territory, Villarreal’s discipline under pressure becomes the swing factor — because they’re very weak avoiding individual errors and very weak in aerial duels.
Key Moments to Watch
- Direct free kicks: Leverkusen are very strong shooting from direct free kicks, and in tight games that’s a shortcut to danger.
- Transitions after turnovers: Both teams rate counter attacks as a strength — the first team to lose structure after losing the ball could pay instantly.
- Second-half game state: Leverkusen’s weakness protecting a lead makes the final half-hour volatile if they’re in front. Villarreal’s weakness protecting a lead makes it chaotic if they somehow grab the first goal.
- Goal threat timelines: Villarreal’s “scored” event time shows 45′, Leverkusen’s first-goal event time also shows 45′ — this could be one that boils until the edge of half-time.
What could go wrong?
For Leverkusen, domination without a finish is the danger: one missed chance, one loose pass, and Villarreal’s counter can bite. For Villarreal, the risk is even sharper — a bad error under pressure, or losing key duels in the box, and the game can run away from them before they even settle.
Best Bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal
Can Bayer Leverkusen seize their BayArena lifeline, or do Villarreal have one last twist left in Europe?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| UCL Form | Lev. 9 pts (20th); Villarr. 1 pt (35th) | Leverkusen Win |
| Defense | Lev. 14 GA; Villarr. 15 GA | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Shot Volume | Lev. 11.9/gm; Villarr. 14.9/gm | Back BTTS |
Both Teams to Score & Leverkusen to Win
Leverkusen approach this critical fixture with a clear tactical objective: dominate central territory and exploit the incision of Alejandro Grimaldo and Patrik Schick. The German side averages 11.9 shots per game and maintains a high passing accuracy of 86.9%. These metrics mean Leverkusen will likely control the tempo at the BayArena, pinning a Villarreal defense that is statistically prone to individual errors.
Villarreal are currently 35th in the league phase with only one point, yet their offensive intent remains a factor. They average 14.9 shots per Champions League game, a higher volume than their hosts. This means they are capable of generating threat despite their poor results. Villarreal are strong on counter-attacks, which directly exploits Leverkusen’s established weakness in defending transitions.
The defensive records for both clubs suggest a clean sheet is improbable for either. Leverkusen have conceded 14 goals in seven European outings, while Villarreal have allowed 15. Leverkusen are statistically weak at protecting leads and defending against quick breaks. Villarreal’s counter-attacking strength, led by runners like Pépé and Moleiro, will test a Leverkusen backline missing the presence of Edmond Tapsoba.
Leverkusen’s technical superiority and home advantage should be enough to secure three points. However, the high shot volumes from both sides and their mutual defensive frailties point toward a result where both find the net. Villarreal’s desperation to avoid elimination will force them to attack, further opening the game for Leverkusen’s creative midfield.
What could go wrong? Leverkusen’s inability to protect leads could see a 2-1 advantage turn into a 2-2 draw late in the game. Alternatively, if Villarreal fail to capitalize on their high shot volume due to poor finishing, Leverkusen could secure a comfortable win without conceding.
Correct Score Lean
Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Villarreal
Leverkusen are the superior technical side, evidenced by their 20th-place ranking and 86.9% pass completion. Villarreal have lost five consecutive matches in this competition, indicating a lack of defensive resilience under pressure. Leverkusen’s attacking through-balls will likely penetrate a Villarreal defense that struggles in aerial duels and avoiding errors. However, Villarreal’s average of 14.9 shots per game and Leverkusen’s record of 14 goals conceded mean the visitors are highly likely to score at least once, making 2-1 the most realistic outcome.
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