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Can Stuttgart’s shot-heavy rhythm overpower Freiburg’s away-day grit at the MHPArena? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Stuttgart’s high-volume attacking style (16.33 shots per game) meets a Freiburg side that consistently scores in this fixture. Given that all six recent meetings went over 2.5 goals, Stuttgart’s dominance should secure the win, but their defensive lapses make BTTS highly likely.
Read Rationale ▾
This scoreline reflects Stuttgart’s superior shot production and Freiburg’s efficiency on set pieces. With Stuttgart averaging their first goal at 47 minutes and Freiburg at 42, a tight contest with a late Stuttgart winner fits the tactical pattern observed in both domestic and European play.
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Stuttgart vs Freiburg Predictions and Best Bets
Stuttgart vs Freiburg — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Pricing suggests Stuttgart’s home dominance at the MHPArena makes them strong favourites to secure the three points.
Analysis of scoring patterns points towards a competitive clash where the 2-1 outcome is a high-probability factor.
With both sides showing consistent goal-scoring form, the markets lean towards an action-packed encounter.
- Shot volume warning: Stuttgart just posted 28 shots with 10 on target in Europe, and they average 16.33 shots per game overall — that’s relentless pressure by design.
- Goals in clusters: Stuttgart have scored 11 goals in their last six outings, while Freiburg have scored 7 in their last six — both sides know how to swing a match quickly.
- This fixture rarely stays quiet: In the last six Stuttgart–Freiburg meetings across all competitions, every single one went over 2.5 goals, and neither side tends to park it.
Attacking Intensity: Shots per Overall Match
Stuttgart’s high-volume shooting rhythm creates constant pressure, while Freiburg rely on a more structured approach.
Their recent European fixture saw them post 28 shots, highlighting an aggressive shot-first mentality.
Freiburg maintain a solid baseline of output, though they mustered only 4 shots in their recent European defeat.
Territorial Control: Average Possession
A comparison of how much of the ball each side expects to see during Bundesliga fixtures.
Stuttgart’s obsession with breaking lines involves maintaining high levels of possession and short-passing.
Freiburg are comfortable without the ball, focusing on duels and set-piece opportunities.
Stuttgart come into Sunday with the crowd already warmed up. A wild 3-2 Europa League win over Young Boys showcased their appetite for chaos — 61% possession, 28 shots, and a late punch to finish it. Sebastian Hoeneß has his side playing fast and brave, and they’ve hit 11 goals across the last six matches.
Freiburg arrive with a very different mood. A 1-0 Europa League defeat to Lille saw them muster 35% possession and four shots, with none on target — a blunt night that Julian Schuster will want to bin quickly. In the Bundesliga, Stuttgart sit on 36 points and Freiburg on 27, but this fixture has a habit of catching fire. Kick-off is 14:30 at the MHPArena.
Team News & Lineups
Team News (injuries/absences)
- Stuttgart: Tiago Tomás (muscle injury)
- Stuttgart: Dan-Axel Zagadou (muscle injury)
- Stuttgart: Lazar Jovanović (back problems)
- Freiburg: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Stuttgart (4-2-3-1):
Alexander Nübel; Josha Vagnoman, Finn Jeltsch, Jeff Chabot, Maximilian Mittelstädt; Atakan Karazor, Angelo Stiller; Chris Führich, Bilal El Khannouss, Jamie Leweling; Deniz Undav
Freiburg (4-2-3-1):
Noah Atubolu; Philipp Treu, Matthias Ginter, Max Rosenfelder, Christian Günter; Maximilian Eggestein, Johan Manzambi; Jan-Niklas Beste, Yuito Suzuki, Derry Scherhant; Igor Matanovic
What it means
Stuttgart’s absentees are attacking options, so the spotlight lands even harder on Deniz Undav (11 league goals, 4.1 shots per game) and the creators behind him. Freiburg’s likely XI leans on structure and set-piece threat, with Ginter (3 assists) and Eggestein (ever-present) central to keeping order when Stuttgart start flooding the final third.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Stuttgart | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th (36 pts) | 7th (27 pts) |
| Bundesliga goals scored | 36 | 31 |
| Bundesliga shots per game | 15.4 | 12.9 |
| Overall shots per game | 16.33 | 13.7 |
| Possession | 58% | 51% |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 82% |
| Clean sheets (all comps listed) | 11 (30 games) | 10 (30 games) |
| Corners per game | 5.7 | 4.5 |
Stuttgart want the ball and the territory — higher possession, more passes, more shots, more corners. Freiburg can play, but their edge comes from moments: winning duels, nicking it, and turning broken play into danger.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Stuttgart’s plan: drown Freiburg in shots
Hoeneß’s Stuttgart are possession-first, short-pass heavy, and obsessed with breaking lines. They love the middle of the pitch and they’re strong at creating through-ball chances, which screams one thing: Undav attacking spaces early while El Khannouss and Leweling feed him.
Expect Stuttgart to funnel play down the left as well. Mittelstädt isn’t just a full-back here — he’s production, with 3 goals and 3 assists in the league and a team-leading 7.21 rating. When Stuttgart pin you back, he becomes an extra attacker, and the box fills quickly.
The flip side is the risk. Stuttgart are weak against counter attacks and weak at stopping opponents creating chances. If they over-commit, they can get stretched into sprints they don’t want.
Freiburg’s response: ride the duels, then strike
Freiburg are comfortable playing with width and crossing, but they also attack through the middle and can hurt teams that switch off for a second. Their strengths lean into battle: aerial duels strong, stealing the ball strong, and attacking set pieces strong.
That lines up neatly with Igor Matanovic (5 league goals) and Vincenzo Grifo (6 league goals). Freiburg don’t need twenty attacks — they need the right three. And if Stuttgart’s defensive focus slips after big European minutes, Freiburg’s knack for coming back from losing positions can keep them alive.
One big danger for Freiburg is self-inflicted wounds. They’re very weak at avoiding individual errors and weak at protecting the lead. At the MHPArena, those little moments get punished fast.
Game flow forecast
Stuttgart should control the pitch position and stack shots. Freiburg’s best spells should come when they survive the first wave, win second balls, and turn it into set-piece pressure or quick deliveries into the box.
Key Moments to Watch
- First-half tone: Stuttgart average their first goal at 47’, Freiburg at 42’ — both can land an early swing if the other starts sloppy.
- Set pieces vs set-piece defending: Freiburg are strong attacking set pieces, while Stuttgart are very strong defending set pieces — classic “something’s got to give” moment.
- Corners and repeat pressure: Stuttgart average 5.7 corners per game; if that stacks up early, Freiburg’s back line will spend the afternoon heading and clearing.
What could go wrong?
For Stuttgart: one loose pass in the build-up, a counter they can’t halt, and suddenly all that dominance turns into panic defending. For Freiburg: a single error while playing out, and Stuttgart’s shot volume becomes a landslide — the kind that’s hard to stop once it starts.
Best Bet for Stuttgart vs Freiburg
Can Stuttgart’s shot-heavy rhythm overpower Freiburg’s away-day grit at the MHPArena?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Shot Volume | Stuttgart 16.33/gm; Freiburg 13.7 | Over 2.5 Goals |
| H2H History | Last 6 mtgs all > 2.5 goals | Back BTTS |
| Attack | Stuttgart 11 in 6; Freiburg 7 in 6 | Stuttgart & BTTS |
Stuttgart to Win & Both Teams to Score
Stuttgart arrive at the MHPArena possessing one of the most relentless attacking systems in the Bundesliga. Sebastian Hoeneß has implemented a high-possession model that focuses on breaking lines through short, intricate passing. This approach resulted in an staggering 28 shots during their recent European outing. With an average of 15.4 league shots per game and 58% possession, Stuttgart consistently pin opponents into their own defensive third.
Deniz Undav remains the focal point of this assault. With 11 league goals and 4.1 shots per game, he is perfectly placed to exploit a Freiburg defence that is weak at avoiding individual errors. Stuttgart’s tendency to funnel play through Maximilian Mittelstädt adds a secondary layer of danger. Mittelstädt’s 7.21 rating and his ability to contribute both goals and assists from the left flank often overwhelm opposition full-backs.
However, this aggressive positioning creates direct vulnerability. Stuttgart are frequently caught out on the counter-attack. Freiburg are highly proficient in aerial duels and set-piece scenarios, with Matthias Ginter providing a constant threat from dead-ball deliveries. Because Freiburg are comfortable attacking through the middle and exploit teams that switch off, they are highly likely to find a breakthrough.
The historical data confirms this pattern. Every single one of the last six meetings between these clubs has seen over 2.5 goals. Stuttgart’s superior pass accuracy and territorial control should see them outscore the visitors, but their inability to maintain clean sheets—coupled with Freiburg’s knack for coming back from losing positions—points directly to a home win where both sides find the net.
What could go wrong?
Stuttgart’s weakness against the counter-attack could be their undoing if Freiburg land a sucker punch early and retreat into a low block. If Stuttgart fail to convert their high shot volume into goals due to individual brilliance from Noah Atubolu, they may leave themselves open to a set-piece equaliser late in the match.
Correct Score Lean
Stuttgart 2-1 Freiburg
A 2-1 victory for the hosts is the most logical outcome based on current form and tactical trends. Stuttgart have scored 11 goals in their last six matches, indicating they have the firepower to breach Freiburg’s structure at least twice. Freiburg, while blunt in their last European match, generally find ways to score in the Bundesliga through high-quality moments rather than volume. Stuttgart’s average first goal at 47 minutes suggests they grow into games, while Freiburg’s proficiency at 42 minutes means we could see a competitive first half before Stuttgart’s shot volume tells.
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