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Will Stuttgart’s pursuit of Champions League football prove too much for a FC Köln side struggling for results on the road? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Stuttgart boast the third-best home record in the Bundesliga, but their defensive vulnerability against counter-attacks aligns with Köln’s tactical strength in transitions. Given Köln’s aerial prowess and Stuttgart’s recent defensive slip-ups, the hosts should secure the points in a match where both sides find the net.
Read Rationale ▾
Stuttgart’s dominance at the MHP Arena is significant, yet Köln’s direct lanes and set-piece threat make a clean sheet unlikely for the home side. A 2-1 victory reflects Stuttgart’s superior shot volume and possession while acknowledging their established weakness in defending direct counters from Kwasniok’s side.
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Stuttgart look to bounce back immediately at the MHPArena following a setback in their top-four push, while Köln arrive desperate for points to move away from the danger zone.
Stuttgart vs FC Koln — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Stuttgart’s third-best home record in the league makes them heavy favourites at the MHP Arena against winless Köln on the road.
Stuttgart average 15.1 shots per match, and with Köln’s set-piece threat, the game points toward at least three total goals.
Stuttgart’s home strength and 13 clean sheets suggest a controlled win, while Köln’s aerial threat could snatch a goal.
Stuttgart’s high 57.8% possession average often leads to sustained pressure, with 13 clean sheets reflecting their defensive stability this term.
Match Preview
Saturday night at the MHP Arena has a clear edge to it. Stuttgart are back on the chase for Champions League qualification, but last weekend’s 2-1 defeat at St Pauli was a proper reality check. Sebastian Hoeneß’s side had won four of five in the league before that — the kind of form that puts you in the mix — and now the response has to be immediate.
FC Köln, meanwhile, arrive needing daylight between themselves and the danger zone. They’re 10th on 23 points, but recent results have swung hard, and their away run has been rough: no wins in the last six away league games. This is where Stuttgart want to turn possession into pressure and make Köln defend for long spells.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Match
Stuttgart’s offensive dominance is reflected in their high shot volume compared to Köln’s more direct approach.
Undav contributes significantly with 4.2 shots per game, part of a team averaging 16.12 across recent match totals.
Köln focus on quick strikes and counters, often utilizing direct service into the final third.
Defensive Shield: Clean Sheets Recorded
A formidable defensive record that has underpinned their top-four push this season.
A defensive struggle that contrasts sharply with Stuttgart’s ability to shut out opponents.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Stuttgart
Stuttgart absences/doubts:
- Luca Jaquez (ill)
- Lazar Jovanović (back problems)
- Jeff Chabot (ill)
- Tiago de Melo Tomás (muscle injury)
Stuttgart (possible XI):
Nübel; Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstädt; Karazor, Chema; Leweling, El Khannouss, Führich; Undav
FC Köln
FC Köln: No injuries or suspensions listed in the facts provided.
FC Köln (possible XI):
Schwäbe; Sebulonsen, Van den Berg, Özkacar; Thielmann, Martel, Krauß, Kaminski, Lund; Ache, Bülter
Tactical Analysis
If Chabot can’t go, Stuttgart lose a key aerial presence (he averages 4.3 aerials won), and that matters against a Köln side that are strong in aerial duels and love to launch crosses and long balls. Köln’s set-up looks built for quick strikes: wing-back width, runners from deep, and two forwards who can turn direct service into shots. Stuttgart will need their counter-press sharp, because their weakness includes defending counter attacks.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Stuttgart | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 10th |
| Points (GP) | 39 (21) | 23 (21) |
| Goals For | 38 | 30 |
| Goals Against | 28 | 34 |
| Shots per game | 15.1 | 13.4 |
| Possession | 57.8% | 47.4% |
| Pass accuracy | 84.6% | 81.0% |
| Clean sheets | 13 CLINICAL | 3 |
Stuttgart’s profile screams control: more of the ball, more shots, fewer goals conceded, and a huge edge in clean sheets. Köln are built differently — less possession, more direct play — and that can be awkward if Stuttgart get sloppy in transition. The first 20 minutes will tell you who dictates the rhythm.
Stuttgart vs Köln Tactical Battle
Stuttgart’s plan: squeeze the pitch, feed Undav early
Hoeneß’s Stuttgart want to live in the opposition half. Their style leans on short passes, through balls, and control through the middle, with a clear tilt to attacking down the left. The numbers back the idea: 59% possession in match totals, 531.58 passes per game at 85% accuracy, and 16.12 shots per game across recent totals.
The front-four shape is where this pops. Jamie Leweling (5 goals, 5 assists) gives them an outlet and a final ball, Bilal El Khannouss (3 goals, 3 assists) links play between the lines, and Chris Führich adds the dribble and delivery. Everything points towards Deniz Undav finishing the moves — and with 4.2 shots per game, Stuttgart don’t need many invitations to get him swinging.
The risk? Stuttgart are weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and defending counter attacks. If they push full-backs high and lose a duel in midfield, Köln will be off.
Köln’s plan: direct lanes, set pieces, and a fight in the air
Lukas Kwasniok’s Köln play with edge and intent. Their strengths include counter attacks, creating scoring chances, and shooting from direct free kicks. Add in long balls and crosses often, plus a strong aerial profile, and you get a clear approach: turn Stuttgart’s possession into a trap, then attack the space behind it.
Key pieces jump off the page. Saïd El Mala has 7 league goals, while Jakub Kaminski has 5 and is always available for quick strikes and early balls. Up top, Ragnar Ache (3 goals, 3 assists) and Marius Bülter (3 goals, 3 assists) can both run channels and fight for first contact.
But there’s a defensive worry Köln can’t hide from: they’re very weak defending set pieces and weak defending down the wings. That’s a dangerous cocktail against a Stuttgart side who are strong at creating long shot opportunities, strong on through balls, and who rack up 5.67 corners per game.
Key Zones & Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Köln are very weak defending set pieces, while Stuttgart are strong defending them — that contrast could decide key phases.
- The Ache/Bülter counter lane: Stuttgart’s weakness defending counter attacks meets Köln’s strength in counter attacks. One bad pass in midfield can turn into a sprint on goal.
- Undav’s shot volume: Deniz Undav averages 4.2 shots per game. If Köln can’t stop the supply, Schwäbe will have a busy evening.
- Aerial duels in the box: Köln are strong in the air, and Stuttgart’s defensive options are affected if Chabot can’t start.
What could go wrong?
For Stuttgart, it’s the classic possession trap: dominating the ball, pushing numbers forward, then getting split by one direct pass and a fast break. For Köln, it’s death by territory — if they concede too many corners and wide entries, that very weak set-piece defending becomes a constant threat, and the pressure never really leaves.
Quick Hits
- Stuttgart have the third-best home record in the Bundesliga, winning 7 of 10 at the MHP Arena.
- Köln have no wins in their last six away league games.
- Stuttgart are unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 home games in all competitions.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & BTTS
This market combines two outcomes: the final winner (Stuttgart) and whether both teams score (Yes). Both parts must be correct for the bet to win. It is often used to boost the price of a strong favourite when a clean sheet is in doubt.
Correct Score
The Correct Score market requires the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes. While harder to predict, it offers higher potential returns. It suits a tactical view of a match’s intensity and defensive reliability.
Other opportunities: Cautious players may look at Double Chance (Stuttgart or Draw) for higher probability but lower price. Higher-risk approaches might target “Anytime Goalscorer” for Undav alongside a match result to capitalise on specific player form.
🎯 Stuttgart vs FC Koln: Rationale for Stuttgart to Win & BTTS
Stuttgart’s home form is the defining factor in this selection. With seven wins from ten at the MHP Arena and a season-long record of 13 clean sheets, they are built on a foundation of control and territorial dominance. Averaging 15.1 shots per game and maintaining nearly 58% possession, Sebastian Hoeneß’s side dictates the rhythm of matches, particularly through the left flank where Führich and Mittelstädt overlap. However, the loss to St Pauli exposed defensive gaps that FC Köln are tactically prepared to exploit.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Stuttgart have the 3rd best home record in the Bundesliga.
- Köln rank highly for counter-attacking efficiency and direct strikes.
- Stuttgart average 1.33 goals conceded per game in recent outings.
Köln’s approach under Lukas Kwasniok relies on transitions and set pieces. They lead with physical forwards like Ache and Bülter who thrive on direct service. Given Stuttgart’s established weakness in defending counter-attacks and their potential loss of Jeff Chabot’s aerial presence, Köln are well-positioned to find the net. Despite this, Stuttgart’s superior shot volume and home unbeaten run make a home victory the most likely outcome, albeit without a clean sheet.
Risk Factor: If Stuttgart control the middle too effectively, Köln may fail to launch enough counters to break the home defence.
🎯 Stuttgart vs FC Koln: Rationale for 2-1 Correct Score
A 2-1 scoreline perfectly encapsulates the tactical mismatch between Stuttgart’s creative volume and Köln’s clinical breaks. Stuttgart score at a rate of 1.8 goals per match, supported by Deniz Undav’s 4.2 shots per game. Their ability to win corners (5.67 per match) and Köln’s specific weakness in defending set-plays creates a high probability of multiple home goals. Köln, while winless in six away, have managed to score 30 goals this season, showing they rarely remain silent for 90 minutes.
The risk for this specific scoreline lies in Stuttgart’s finishing efficiency. While they create 15.1 shots, Köln’s defensive setup involves playing deep, which could restrict Stuttgart to a single goal if the final ball is missing. Conversely, Köln’s vulnerability on the wings—a Stuttgart strength—means the hosts should find enough daylight to secure the win, while Köln’s aerial dominance ensures they remain a live threat for a consolation or a momentum-shifting goal.
Risk Factor: An early Stuttgart goal could force Köln to abandon their deep block, potentially leading to a higher-scoring game.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Attacking primarily down the left with high cross volume and through balls into the box.
Struggling to track runners and stop delivery from wide areas, especially against creative full-backs.
❓ Questions & Answers
⊕What does ‘Both Teams to Score’ mean?
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is a bet where you win if both competing sides score at least one goal each during the match. It does not matter what the final result is, provided neither team finishes with zero goals. This market is popular in games where both sides have strong attacking records but defensive vulnerabilities.
⊕Why is Stuttgart favoured to win this match?
Stuttgart are favoured due to having the third-best home record in the Bundesliga and a significant lead in league position. They have won 7 of 10 matches at the MHP Arena, while Köln are winless in their last six away league fixtures. The stats show a clear gap in shot volume and possession control in Stuttgart’s favour.
⊕What is a Correct Score bet?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final scoreline of a football match after regular time. Because the number of possible scorelines is high, these bets carry more risk but offer higher rewards compared to simple match result bets. It is a market that rewards detailed tactical and statistical analysis.
⊕How does Köln’s aerial strength affect the game?
Köln are noted for being strong in aerial duels and frequently using crosses and long balls to create chances. This creates a specific threat against Stuttgart, especially if key home defender Jeff Chabot—who averages 4.3 aerials won—is unable to play due to illness. This physical mismatch is a key path for Köln to find a goal.
⊕What are Stuttgart’s main tactical weaknesses?
Stuttgart are weak at defending counter-attacks and stopping opponents from creating high-quality chances. Because they play with high possession and push numbers forward, they often leave space behind their defence that direct teams can exploit. This vulnerability is the primary reason why both teams are expected to score.
⊕Who is the key player to watch for Stuttgart?
Deniz Undav is the focal point of Stuttgart’s attack, having already scored 11 Bundesliga goals this season. He averages 4.2 shots per game, meaning he is constantly involved in the final third. If Köln cannot restrict the supply from Stuttgart’s creative midfielders, Undav is the most likely to convert the pressure into goals.
⊕How often does Stuttgart keep a clean sheet?
Stuttgart have recorded 13 clean sheets so far this Bundesliga season, which is a very high defensive return. While this indicates strong defensive organization, they remain vulnerable to specific types of attacks, such as the direct counters and set-piece headers that Köln specialise in. This creates a fascinating tactical battle between stability and chaos.
⊕What is ‘Draw No Bet’?
Draw No Bet is a market that removes the option of a draw; you bet on either a home or away win. If the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned to you in full. It is a safer way to back a team when you believe they are unlikely to lose, but could be held to a stalemate.
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