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Mainz 05 vs St Pauli Predictions There’s no need to dress this one up: it’s a relegation scrap with sharp edges, played in a stadium that will feel smaller with every nervous breath. Mainz 05 host St. Pauli at the Mewa Arena on Sunday, with both sides tangled in the bottom three and every point carrying extra weight. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Sheffield United score 1.42 goals per game and are strong at set pieces, making them favorites at home. However, they are very weak at defending counter-attacks and protecting leads, conceding 1.54 goals per match on average. Mansfield score 1.33 per game and are strong on the wings, making them a major threat to score on the break.
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This scoreline reflects Sheffield United's status as favorites while accounting for their defensive vulnerabilities. They average over 1.4 goals per game but concede 1.54, making a clean sheet unlikely against a Mansfield side that averages 11.33 shots per match. A narrow home win represents the most logical outcome based on their respective scoring and conceding trends.
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Mainz 05 vs St Pauli Predictions and Best Bets
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- Same goals, different pressure points: After 14 matches, Mainz 05 and St. Pauli have identical totals of 13 scored and 26 conceded, underlining how one decisive moment could separate them.
- Mainz at home: the problem in one line: Mainz 05’s home league record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, which explains why this fixture carries such urgency at the Mewa Arena.
- Chance quality hints at the tactical swing: Mainz 05 average 1.25 xG for and 1.71 xG against per match, while St. Pauli post 1.29 xG for and 1.40 xG against, suggesting different defensive stability.
Match Tempo: Over 2.5 Goals Rate
A simple snapshot of how often each side’s league matches have tipped into higher-scoring territory across the season so far.
Plenty of Mainz games stay on a tight scoreboard, so the first goal can heavily shape the tempo and risk-taking.
St. Pauli’s numbers point to more matches breaking into chances at both ends, especially once the game stretches.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets Rate
Clean sheets are a blunt but useful indicator: how often a side keeps the door fully shut across the league campaign.
With no league clean sheets recorded, even small defensive lapses have tended to show up on the scoreboard.
A small clean-sheet rate, but it shows St. Pauli have at least managed to blank opponents on occasion.
Chance Volume: Shots Over 10.5 (Team)
This highlights how regularly each team reaches a useful baseline for shot volume, a proxy for sustained attacking presence.
Mainz have often found ways to get attempts away, which matters in a game where second balls and territory could dominate.
St. Pauli sit right in the same zone for shot volume, suggesting neither side will want a slow, passive afternoon.
Can Mainz turn the Mewa Arena into a lifeline against St. Pauli?
Mainz are last, 18th, on seven points from 14 matches. They’re six points and three places away from safety, and four points behind St. Pauli, who sit 16th in the relegation play-off spot with 11 points. The visitors arrive having beaten Heidenheim 2-1 on December 13, a timely reminder that even in a grim stretch, one big moment can flip the mood.
Both teams have the same goal record across the campaign so far: 13 scored and 26 conceded. That symmetry doesn’t make this comfortable for either side; it makes it tense. The margins are thin, and when you’re living on thin margins, small decisions start to feel enormous.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Mainz’s possible starting XI is listed as: Batz; Da Costa, Bell, Kohr; Nordin, Maloney, Sano, Veratschnig; Amiri, Lee; Hollerbach.
Read it top to bottom and it looks like a back three protected and supported by a bank of four, with Amiri and Lee playing close enough to Hollerbach to turn possession into something more than hopeful punts. Da Costa, Bell and Kohr would give Mainz a spine built for contact and clearances, while Nordin and Veratschnig shape up as the wide outlets who have to do double duty: stretch the pitch when Mainz have the ball, and then sprint back into shape the moment it’s lost.
St. Pauli’s possible starting XI is: Vasilj; Wahl, Mets, Dzwigala; Pyrka, Fujita, Sands, Irvine, Oppie; Kaars, Lage.
That also points towards a back three, with Pyrka and Oppie offering the width, and a busy central unit in Fujita, Sands and Irvine. With Kaars and Lage ahead, St. Pauli look set up to have two forward reference points rather than leaving one striker isolated. If Lage plays close to Kaars, it can become a front pair that presses together and attacks second balls; if he drops off, St. Pauli can still build through midfield without losing a body up top.
How the Match Could Be Played
With both sides seemingly shaped around a back three, the game can quickly turn into a battle of wing-backs and timing. If Mainz push Nordin and Veratschnig high early, they can try to pin Pyrka and Oppie deeper than St. Pauli would like, forcing the visitors’ wide players to defend first and attack later. That would also help Amiri and Lee find pockets between St. Pauli’s midfield line and their back three — the kind of spaces where one sharp turn can turn “safe possession” into “sudden chance”.
The risk, of course, is what happens when that first wave breaks down. Mainz’s possession average is 45% overall, and when you’re not a high-possession side, you have to be excellent at what you do in the moments you do have the ball. If Mainz commit numbers forward and lose it cheaply, St. Pauli have the structure to counter through two forwards and wide runners. The immediate outlet could be into Kaars or Lage, with one setting and the other spinning into the channels. The wing-backs then become the accelerators, arriving outside the ball and turning a turnover into a proper attack rather than a hopeful dribble into traffic.
St. Pauli, meanwhile, sit at 48% possession on average, so neither team is walking in with a “we’ll dominate the ball” identity baked in. That points to a match with shifting phases: spells where one side tries to build with patience, followed by spells where it becomes direct and scrappy because the opponent’s press is landing.
Pressing cues should matter. Mainz concede an average of 1.86 goals per match, and they concede a goal every 48 minutes on average. That doesn’t just hint at defensive vulnerability; it suggests periods in matches where concentration and spacing have slipped at costly moments. St. Pauli will fancy that if they can force uncomfortable decisions in early build-up — especially if Mainz’s wide players are caught halfway between “go” and “hold”.
For Mainz, the attacking challenge is making their shots count. They average 10.64 shots per match, but only 2.57 are on target, and their shots conversion rate is listed at 9%. That picture fits a team that can get into shooting positions without consistently creating clean ones. If Amiri and Lee can receive on the half-turn and slide Hollerbach in early, it changes the quality of those efforts — fewer hopeful hits, more shots with a keeper actually having to make a proper decision.
St. Pauli, by contrast, average 10.93 shots per match with 3.57 on target, but their conversion rate is still only 8%. So this may not be about who shoots more; it may be about who creates the clearer sights of goal, and who stays calm when the chance finally arrives in a match that could feel like it’s being played with a weight vest.
There’s also a subtle timing angle. St. Pauli’s scoring average is 0.36 in the first half and 0.57 in the second; Mainz sit at 0.43 in the first half and 0.50 in the second. That leans towards a game that might open up as it goes on, whether through fatigue, urgency, or simply the reality that two teams under pressure rarely keep the lid on for 90 minutes.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table, because it frames everything. Mainz are 18th with seven points from 14 matches; St. Pauli are 16th with 11. Mainz have one win, four draws and nine losses, which works out at 0.50 points per game. Their home record is particularly stark: no wins, two draws and five defeats. Put simply, the Mewa Arena hasn’t been a refuge; it’s been another place where hard days have followed them.
St. Pauli have three wins, two draws and nine losses, and average 0.79 points per game. Their away record reads one win, one draw and five defeats. So while they arrive higher in the table, they’re not travelling with a roaring away platform — more a sense that they’ve found a way to scrap out results in the right moments, like that 2-1 win over Heidenheim on December 13.
Both sides have scored 13 and conceded 26, averaging 0.93 scored and 1.86 conceded per match. That symmetry matters because it suggests neither side has separated themselves through consistent control of either box. It can make the tactical question feel brutally simple: which team can be slightly less wasteful at the top end, and slightly less chaotic at the other?
The expected goals figures add a bit of texture. Mainz are listed at 1.25 xG for per match and 1.71 xG against, which points to a team giving up better chances than they create on average. St. Pauli sit at 1.29 xG for and 1.40 xG against, implying they’ve been closer to balance in the quality of chances — still conceding, still struggling, but not consistently getting cut open in the same way the numbers suggest Mainz have.
And then there’s discipline and disruption. Dominik Kohr stands out in the Mainz card numbers with a high total, while St. Pauli have several players on three cards. In a match that could swing on transitions and broken play, the ability to stay composed in duels — and avoid giving away soft set-piece situations — can quietly decide the tone.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is the wing-back battle: Nordin and Veratschnig for Mainz against Pyrka and Oppie for St. Pauli. If Mainz win territory out wide, they give Amiri and Lee a platform to play closer to Hollerbach. If St. Pauli win those duels, they can turn Mainz’s width into a trap and counter into the space that’s left behind.
Then there’s the central tempo-setters. Mainz’s likely midfield includes Maloney and Sano, with Amiri ahead; St. Pauli’s includes Fujita, Sands and Irvine. If St. Pauli can clog the lanes into Amiri and Lee, Mainz may be forced into earlier balls towards Hollerbach, which turns the match into second balls and contact — a style that can suit either side, depending on whose positioning is sharper.
The finishing moment is unavoidable. Mainz’s 9% shot conversion and St. Pauli’s 8% both point to sides who have needed a lot of attempts for each goal. In a relegation battle, you might not get many clean chances, so the team that turns one half-chance into a real shot on target could be the one that changes the emotional weather inside the ground.
Finally, watch the late-game mood. Both teams average more goals in second halves than first halves, and both concede regularly across matches. If it’s level late on, the game state can tilt quickly — urgency can create openings, and openings can create panic.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A match like this can ignore structure if one early goal forces a team to chase. It can also be decided by a single mistake, a deflection, or one moment of sharpness that doesn’t reflect the broader run of play. When teams are this close in record and output, the story can turn on something as small as one misjudged header or one rushed pass.
Best Bet for Mainz vs St. Pauli
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Mainz to win
The justification for a Mainz victory rests on a remarkable historical dominance over St. Pauli and a recent upturn in performance that belies their league position. Despite sitting bottom of the Bundesliga, Mainz enter this fixture undefeated in their last three matches, a run that notably includes a gritty 2-2 draw against league leaders Bayern München. This recent resilience is bolstered by an overwhelming head-to-head record; Mainz have won their last four consecutive matches against St. Pauli across all competitions. Even more compelling is their home record in this fixture, where the “05ers” have scored at least two goals in each of their last four home encounters with the Hamburg-based side.
While Mainz’s home form this season has been undeniably poor—failing to win at the Mewa Arena in seven league attempts—the historical data suggests St. Pauli are the ideal opponent to break that duck. St. Pauli arrive having lost nine of their last thirteen league matches and are currently on a six-game winless streak on the road. Furthermore, the visitors have struggled significantly in front of goal away from home, managing only five goals in seven Bundesliga road trips, an average of just 0.71 per game.
Mainz also benefit from the return of Nadiem Amiri, who has served a yellow-card suspension and remains their primary creative outlet with three goals and a high shot-assist volume. St. Pauli’s defensive fragility is equally glaring; they have failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 of their last 20 Bundesliga matches, a vulnerability that aligns with Mainz’s tendency to score multiple goals in this specific matchup. Given that Mainz have historically handled the pressure of “bottom-five” clashes—winning 75% of such encounters—the hosts are well-positioned to leverage their psychological edge and secure their first home win of the campaign.
What could go wrong Mainz have failed to win any of their last 10 Bundesliga matches, a psychological weight that can lead to late-game panic. Additionally, St. Pauli’s recent 2-1 win over Heidenheim showed they can scrap for results against fellow strugglers, and should Mainz’s conversion rate (currently only 9%) fail to improve, a clinical moment from Martijn Kaars could see the hosts frustrated once again.
Correct score lean
2-0
Rationale
A 2-0 scoreline is strongly supported by the specific history of this fixture. Mainz beat St. Pauli 2-0 at home as recently as February 2025, and they have scored at least twice in their last four home games against them. Given that St. Pauli average less than a goal per game on the road and have already suffered two 2-0 defeats this season, they are unlikely to breach a Mainz defense that just recorded a confidence-boosting shutout in European competition. Mainz’s expected goals (xG) of 1.25 versus St. Pauli’s 1.29 suggests a tight game where the hosts’ historical superiority in this pairing provides the two-goal margin.
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