bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo predictions for Thursday’s Brasileiro. The Classico Majestoso rarely tiptoes quietly through the calendar, and this edition at Neo Química Arena on 20 November arrives with nerves shredded on both sides of São Paulo. Corinthians and Sao Paulo step into the closing stretch of the Brasileiro with continental football on the line, local bragging rights at stake and, if we are honest, a fair bit of mutual resentment simmering under the surface. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Get Premium Tips before kick-off
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Corinthians carry strong home momentum, with Yuri Alberto and Memphis Depay supported by energetic runners, so chances should flow. Sao Paulo remain dangerous through Luciano, Ferreira and Lucas Moura, yet defend erratically. Derby intensity, recent goal-laden meetings and fragile back lines all scream goals from both sides again tonight.
▾
Match pattern points towards a narrow home success. Corinthians usually lift their level at Corinthians Arena and possess enough creation for two goals. Sao Paulo’s forwards, particularly Luciano, still threaten a reply, but their away frailties and injury list make a single consolation strike more realistic.
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Predictions and Best Bets
- Derby goals trend
- Across ten recent meetings since 2023, Corinthians and Sao Paulo produced around three goals per game on average, with only a couple of clashes failing to land both sides on the scoresheet.
- Sao Paulo’s away vulnerability
- Sao Paulo have won just four of their sixteen league away fixtures this season, losing seven, and in several of those defeats they failed to score, highlighting their fragile travelling mentality.
- Corinthians’ mixed but crucial home record
- Corinthians have collected seven league victories in sixteen home matches, including three wins in their last four at Neo Química Arena, underlining why they still lean on this venue when results elsewhere wobble.
Will Corinthians’ Home Strength Be Enough to Halt Sao Paulo’s Derby Dominance at Neo Química Arena?
Corinthians are hovering around the Copa Sudamericana spots, still trying to work out if this season represents progress, stagnation or a missed opportunity. Sao Paulo, sitting higher in ninth, are pushing for security in that same continental bracket while quietly keeping one eye on the possibility of sneaking towards the Copa Libertadores qualification stage. When both clubs are measuring themselves against regional and continental benchmarks, every point in a derby feels worth double.
This is not just another league fixture; it is an argument between two heavyweights about who actually owns the city’s current football narrative. Corinthians are desperate to use the backing of Neo Química Arena to drag themselves level on points with their rivals. Sao Paulo arrive knowing they have enjoyed the upper hand in most recent head-to-head clashes and, in private at least, may feel they are the more modern, upwardly mobile project. Derby matches love this kind of arrogance.
Corinthians’ home edge and fractured momentum
With five league matches remaining, Corinthians are exactly where no ambitious club wants to be: on the edge of relevance. They hover on the border of the Sudamericana zone, close enough to dream, but fragile enough that another short losing run could dump them back into mid-table anonymity. For a seven-time Brazilian champion, that is a slightly embarrassing neighbourhood.
It has not all been bleak. This campaign has already delivered the club’s 31st Paulista crown, a tangible piece of silverware that matters emotionally and historically. Dorival Junior, who stepped into the job in April, has stabilised the ship to a point, overseeing 34 matches with 15 wins and a 44% success rate. That is respectable, if not exactly revolutionary. The People’s Team are still working out whether they love him or merely tolerate him.
Recently, Corinthians combined defensive solidity with results, putting together three straight league victories without conceding. That kind of streak had not appeared since May, and it briefly felt like the foundations were finally set. Then, just as optimism grew louder, Bragantino and Ceara arrived to bring reality back with two successive defeats. Suddenly, the mood in the stands turned from hopeful to irritated.
Even in that frustration, the home record remains a key card. Corinthians have won three of their last four matches at Neo Química Arena and have taken maximum points in seven of their 16 league games there this season. With Felipe Longo in goal, a back line built around André Ramalho Silva, Gustavo Henrique and Matheus Bidu, plus a midfield of Matheuzinho, Breno Bidon, Maycon de Andrade Barberan and Dieguinho, they have enough structure to feel secure at home. Up front, the combination of Yuri Alberto, Rodrigo Garro and Memphis Depay gives them technical quality and goals.
However, Dorival Junior must juggle significant absences. Vitinho, Raniele, Hugo Souza and the teenager Andre are all sidelined through various injuries, while Garro is suspended after accumulating too many bookings. Even more delicately, several players – including Depay – are walking a disciplinary tightrope, risking suspension if they go into challenges with too much emotion. At least Andre Carrillo returns from a ban to provide another option.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
Sao Paulo’s away anxiety and head-to-head confidence
Across the city, Sao Paulo approach this derby in that strange state where confidence and doubt coexist. On the one hand, they have dominated the majority of recent encounters, winning six of the last seven head-to-heads and taking the last three meetings by an 8–2 aggregate scoreline. If you just read that, you might think this is a mismatch.
The table also flatters them. Currently ninth, Sao Paulo can lock in their Sudamericana place with a win and, with five games left, still entertain ideas of edging towards the Libertadores qualifiers. They also carry a lingering sense of injustice after Corinthians ended their five-year grip on the Paulista title earlier in the season. Emotional revenge is absolutely in play here; if they could win this derby 4–0 and bring their old trophy back at the same time, they would probably volunteer to play twice in one night.
Yet there is a less flattering side to the story. Away from home, Sao Paulo have been unreliable. They have only won four of their 16 league games on the road this campaign, losing seven of those (44%), and across their last ten away matches in all competitions, they have picked up just two victories. Worryingly for Hernan Crespo, they lost five of those ten without even scoring, which suggests that once the crowd turns against them, their attacking patterns sometimes crumble.
The injury list is brutal. Oscar is sidelined following heart-related concerns detected in physical testing, while Pablo Maia, Marcos Anotnia, Rodriguinho, Juan Dinenno, Wendell and Luan Santos all remain out with various issues. Further back in the season, Jonathan Calleri, Ryan Francisco, André Silva, Leandro Mathias and Juan Dinenno again have all been mentioned among those struggling with long-term problems. Crespo’s squad looks like a medical conference at times.
Even so, there is real quality in the expected line-up. Rafael anchors things in goal behind a defence of Alan Franco, Robert Arboleda and Sabino. The midfield could include Maik, Lucas Moura, Damián Bobadilla, Luiz Gustavo and Enzo Díaz, with Ferreira and Luciano da Rocha Neves leading the line. Luciano in particular remains central to their hopes, with 15 goals in 52 appearances and three direct goal contributions across his last three matches.
Why we focus on one standout prediction
At BettingTips4You, our approach to a match like Corinthians vs Sao Paulo is intentionally ruthless. We look at form, numbers, tactical shapes, injuries, psychology and even the emotional temperature, and then we choose one main prediction rather than flood you with half a dozen possibilities.
We do this for three reasons. First, we genuinely believe that quality beats quantity: your staking plan does not benefit from ten overlapping ideas when one carefully selected angle captures the game’s most likely pattern. Second, it simplifies your decision-making; instead of debating which of our own tips to follow, you see the single selection we would take ourselves. Third, it makes us accountable. If we consistently pick one best bet per match, our long-term performance is easy to track, and there is nowhere to hide.
For this Classico Majestoso, we have explored options from match result to correct scores, team totals, cards and both teams to score. Taking all the data and context together, one angle in particular stands out as the clearest reflection of how this derby is likely to unfold.
Best Bet for This Match
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Best Bet for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
Why our Best Bet for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo makes sense
From a technical perspective, combining Both Teams to Score with Over 2.5 Goals complements almost every major trend surrounding this fixture. Recent head-to-head meetings have produced, on average, around three goals per game, and only two of the last ten clashes have ended without both sides finding the net. This is not historically a careful, cagey rivalry; it is more like an argument that starts in midfield and ends inside both penalty areas.
Corinthians’ recent pattern under Dorival Junior fits that profile. Their three-game streak of clean sheets showed they can defend when everything clicks, but the more recent defeats against Bragantino and Ceara indicate that rigidity does not last forever. Over their last cluster of fixtures, they have both shown fragility at the back and maintained enough threat through Yuri Alberto, Depay and the supporting cast to trouble most defences, especially at Neo Química Arena.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, are almost the definition of “dangerous but flaky”. Their away record is inconsistent, yet they still carry enough attacking quality through players like Luciano, Ferreira and Lucas Moura to create chances even when the performance is uneven. The fact they have only won four of sixteen away league games, but have dominated recent head-to-heads, suggests a side that raises their level emotionally for this particular opponent while still leaving gaps. Their habit of losing without scoring in some away matches is a concern, but the derby context and Corinthians’ own defensive wobble tilt the balance towards both teams finding the net.
The injury situation also quietly supports a goal-heavy script. Corinthians are missing key options like Vitinho, Raniele, Hugo Souza and Andre, and must adjust again without Rodrigo Garro due to suspension. Sao Paulo’s list of absentees, featuring Oscar, Pablo Maia, Marcos Anotnia, Rodriguinho, Juan Dinenno, Wendell and Luan Santos, weakens their defensive and midfield stability. When both managers are forced into reshuffles, continuity in defensive partnerships often suffers more than attacking improvisation.
BettingTips4You.com expert quote: “This derby screams emotion over control. Corinthians are strong enough at home to score, Sao Paulo are too talented to stay quiet, and both back lines look patchwork. For us, Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals is the most natural way to ride the chaos rather than pretend it will be a cautious chess match.”
In short, we expect Corinthians’ home pressure and Sao Paulo’s attacking weapons to combine for an open game, with neither defence looking trustworthy enough to keep a clean sheet for 90 minutes.
Likely correct score: Corinthians 2–1 Sao Paulo
Translating that broader view into a specific correct score, a 2–1 victory for Corinthians feels like the most coherent outcome. The hosts have shown they can defend in spells and have turned Neo Química Arena into a relatively reliable base, winning three of their last four league matches there and seven of sixteen in the competition overall. With Longo at the back, a settled core in front of him and the energy of players like Matheuzinho, Maycon and Dieguinho, they can control territory for stretches.
At the same time, Sao Paulo’s away issues cannot be ignored. With only four wins in sixteen road fixtures and seven defeats, their record on travels is simply not strong enough to inspire complete trust, even if they usually stay competitive. Their long injury list strips away some depth, and over ninety minutes in a hostile derby environment, that often shows in the final twenty minutes.
However, their head-to-head confidence, recent attacking contributions from Luciano and the presence of creators like Lucas Moura and Bobadilla give them enough ammunition to at least break through once. A 2–1 home win fits the idea that Corinthians start aggressively, ride the energy of the crowd, concede at some stage to Sao Paulo’s quality, but ultimately edge the contest thanks to their home resilience and slightly better late-game balance. It also sits comfortably within our main angle of both teams scoring in a game that crosses the 2.5-goal line.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
