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Morocco vs Comoros Predictions All eyes will be on Rabat on Sunday as Morocco begin their Africa Cup of Nations campaign with a Group A opener against Comoros — and they do so carrying the kind of expectation that can feel like a backpack full of bricks. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Milan enter this fixture in exceptional form, currently riding a 17-match unbeaten streak in Serie A. Their offensive efficiency, led by Pulisic and Leão, contrasts sharply with a Fiorentina defense that has conceded 30 goals and ranks among the worst in the league for preventing chances. While Fiorentina can be dangerous from set pieces, their inability to see out games—highlighted by their "very weak" rating at protecting leads—suggests Milan will eventually find a way through. Given the 26-point gap in the standings, an away win offers the most justified path.
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Both teams possess enough attacking threat to suggest goals at both ends, particularly with Fiorentina’s strength in direct free kicks and Milan’s clinical finishing. However, the visitors' defensive record is significantly more robust, conceding just 0.71 goals per game on average. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Milan’s ability to outscore their opponents while acknowledging that Fiorentina often find the net at home. This result remains consistent with Milan's status as favorites and their tactical advantage in creating through-ball opportunities against a porous Viola backline.
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Morocco vs Comoros Predictions and Best Bets
Morocco vs Comoros — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Exchange prices suggest a relatively balanced contest, but Morocco’s home strength still gives them a slight edge over Comoros and the draw in the 1X2 market.
Pricing points towards a cagey clash where single-goal margins and the 1–1 stalemate are the most realistic outcomes in Rabat.
Markets lean slightly towards a lower-scoring contest, but there remains a realistic chance of both sides contributing in a tight tactical battle.
Diaz and En-Nesyri headline Morocco’s attacking threat, while Said and Selemani carry Comoros’ forward spark and transition pace.
- Opening-night pressure, elite returns: Morocco are 9 wins and 1 draw from their last 10 fixtures, underlining why Sunday’s Rabat opener arrives with serious expectation.
- Defensive platform first: Morocco have 8 clean sheets in 10 and have conceded only 3 goals across 10 World Cup matches, a reminder of how hard they are to break down.
- Shot volume gap hints at control: Morocco average 16.4 shots per match (5.7 on target), while Comoros average 6.29 shots per match (2.57 on target), shaping the likely territory battle.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per Game
The underlying goal environment looks very different across the two teams’ recent competition profiles, shaping the likely rhythm of this Group A opener.
Their matches have averaged 2.1 total goals, which fits a side that combines control with a strong defensive base.
Comoros games have averaged 3.3 total goals, hinting at matches that can open up quickly once transitions arrive.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets and Conceded per Match
One side arrive with a record of shutting teams out, while the other’s recent numbers suggest they often have to survive long spells without the ball.
An 80% clean-sheet rate pairs with 0.3 conceded per match, reinforcing how rarely Morocco allow opponents sustained momentum.
Conceding 1.8 per match points to a defence that can be forced into repeated actions, especially against high shot volumes.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Shot volume is a quick way to sense who tends to spend more time in the final third — and how frequently goalkeepers may be called into action.
At 16.4 shots per game, Morocco tend to build long spells around the opposition box — useful for wearing down a deep block.
Comoros average 6.29 shots, suggesting they may need to be clinical with the chances they do create, especially on the break.
Can Morocco turn early tournament pressure into the perfect opening-night statement against Comoros?
There’s a neat bit of tournament history hanging over this one too: there have been 19 host-nation wins to open the continental showpiece, and the Atlas Lions are aiming to make it 20. On paper, it looks like the sort of occasion Morocco would love — a big stage, a big crowd, and a chance to lay down an early marker in the group. Comoros, though, aren’t turning up simply to admire the scenery. Their potential to land an upset is acknowledged even in the build-up, and that’s the uncomfortable edge for the hosts: the pressure to start well, mixed with the knowledge that the opposition won’t be overawed. This is the first step in Morocco’s quest for a second Africa Cup of Nations title. The opener can be a funny game — not always the cleanest, sometimes more about handling the moment than showcasing the football — but with the line-ups on offer, it also has the ingredients for a proper contest of styles and control.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Morocco’s possible starting XI reads: Bono; Mazraoui, Aguerd, El Yamiq, Salah-Eddine; Ben Seghir, El Aynaoui, Saibari; Diaz, En-Nesyri, Ezzalzouli.
That shape points strongly towards a back four with a three-man midfield and a front three. It’s a line-up built to dominate the ball and ask questions in wide areas, with Mazraoui and Salah-Eddine either asked to give natural width themselves or to support it as Morocco’s front line narrows to attack the box. With Diaz, En-Nesyri and Ezzalzouli ahead, Morocco have clear reference points: a central striker presence in En-Nesyri, flanked by attackers who can shift defenders, carry the ball into dangerous spaces, and combine quickly around the area.
Comoros’ possible XI is: Anzimati-Aboudou; B. Youssouf, M’Dahoma, Soilihi, Toibibou, Boura; M’Changama, Z. Youssouf, Bourhane; Said, Selemani.
The personnel list suggests a more defensive-minded structure — five across the back, a compact midfield three, and two players left higher to stretch the pitch and offer an outlet. The big implication is clear: Comoros are likely to prioritise defensive security first, then try to make their moments count when transitions appear.
Put those two approaches together and you get the early tension of this game: Morocco seeking to play in Comoros territory, Comoros trying to make Morocco work for every entry into the box.
How the Match Could Be Played
The likely picture is Morocco with the initiative, looking to establish territory and rhythm through their midfield three of Ben Seghir, El Aynaoui and Saibari. In matches like this, the first task is often to get the ball moving fast enough to shift a deep defensive line, but cleanly enough to avoid gifting cheap transitions.
Morocco’s front three gives them different ways to do that. En-Nesyri offers a clear central target — a striker who can occupy centre-backs and give Morocco a direct option if the build-up is slowed. Around him, Diaz and Ezzalzouli can create problems by dropping into pockets or driving at defenders, especially if Comoros’ wing-backs are pinned back and forced into constant 1v1 defending.
A key theme could be Morocco’s ability to create overloads on the flanks. Against a back five, the obvious route is to pull one of the outside centre-backs into a wide channel and then attack the space that opens behind or between defenders. If Morocco can repeatedly isolate a wide defender, they can turn “safe possession” into shots and cutbacks. If they can’t, the match risks becoming a cycle of crosses and clearances — territory without incision.
Without the ball, Morocco may look to squeeze Comoros high up the pitch and win it back quickly. A back five with two forwards can sometimes leave the lone midfield options starved of support when the outlet pass arrives; if Morocco’s midfield can step in and contest second balls, Comoros may struggle to keep the ball long enough to reset.
For Comoros, the tactical story is about timing their breaks. With M’Changama, Z. Youssouf and Bourhane in midfield, the mission is to stay compact, block central lanes, and then release Said and Selemani quickly when turnovers happen. If Comoros can get those two running into space early, they can force Morocco’s defenders into uncomfortable sprints back towards their own goal — the kind that can turn a controlled game into a messy one in a heartbeat.
Set-piece themes naturally loom in games where one side is expected to defend a lot. A deep block tends to concede corners and wide free-kicks, and Morocco’s centre-backs — Aguerd and El Yamiq — hint at the sort of physical profile you want attacking deliveries. For Comoros, surviving those phases without conceding cheap second balls could be as important as anything they do in open play.
And then there’s psychology. An opener can feel tight if the favourite doesn’t score early, especially with the weight of expectation and the sense of “don’t be the headline.” Morocco’s job is to keep their patience without losing their edge.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Morocco’s recent results underline why the burden is so heavy. Across their last 10 fixtures, they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, and in a World Cup table line they’ve taken 28 points from 10 matches, with 18 goals scored and only 3 conceded. That isn’t just winning; it’s winning with authority, and it supports the idea that Morocco should be able to control games through both territory and defensive stability.
The defensive base is especially striking. Morocco’s clean sheet rate is listed at 80%, with 8 clean sheets in 10, and they’ve conceded 0.3 goals per match. That matters here because it suggests Comoros won’t get many “second chances” — if they do break out, they’ll likely need to make the first big moment count.
Morocco’s shot volume also fits the picture of a side that sustains pressure. They’re taking 16.4 shots per match, with 5.7 on target, and their xG for is listed at 1.82 per match. In plain terms: they get the ball into shooting positions regularly, and often enough to test goalkeepers. For a Comoros back line that may spend long spells defending, that’s a warning signal.
Comoros’ profile points in a different direction. Over 10 fixtures, they’ve scored 15 goals but conceded 18, with an average match goals figure of 3.3. That combination suggests games that can swing — they do contribute going forward, but they also allow opponents plenty of opportunities. Their shot numbers reinforce that contrast: 6.29 shots per match with 2.57 on target, and an xG for of 0.87 per match. If Comoros are to spring an upset, they may need a ruthless version of their attacking moments rather than a steady stream of them.
One more number nudges the expectation towards Morocco establishing early rhythm: their average possession is 59% (and 61% at home in that same set of matches). That aligns with the likely game state — Morocco building, probing, and trying to turn patient pressure into a lead that settles the occasion.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first genuine wave of Morocco pressure is a moment in itself. If the Atlas Lions can turn that opening control into clear chances — especially through wide combinations involving Mazraoui and Salah-Eddine — the match could quickly settle into Morocco’s preferred pattern. If Comoros hold firm, grow into their defensive timing, and start forcing Morocco into rushed crosses, the game could take on a more edgy feel.
Watch how Comoros handle the spaces either side of their midfield three. If Diaz or Ezzalzouli can receive between the lines and turn, Morocco’s attacks become more varied and harder to predict. If Comoros can keep those pockets locked, Morocco may need to rely more on deliveries into En-Nesyri and second-ball pressure around the box.
Transitions will be Comoros’ clearest route to creating drama. Said and Selemani are the names to track when Comoros regain the ball: do they get quick support from M’Changama or Bourhane, or are they left chasing long clearances? Those details decide whether Comoros can turn rare possessions into real threats, or whether they simply invite the next Morocco wave.
Another swing factor is Morocco’s finishing relative to their shot volume. When a side generates plenty of attempts, the match can look comfortable — until it isn’t. If Morocco’s chances don’t become goals, the tension inevitably creeps in, and Comoros only need one big moment to change the emotional temperature.
What could go wrong with this read? Opener dynamics can scramble logic. A single mistake in build-up, a scruffy deflection, or one well-timed Comoros break could flip the script. Fine margins are still margins — and they still count.
Best Bet for Morocco vs Comoros
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Morocco to win to nil
The case for Morocco securing a victory without conceding rests on a remarkable defensive foundation that has defined their play leading into this home tournament. Statistically, the Atlas Lions have been nearly impenetrable at the back, maintaining a clean sheet rate of 80% across their last 10 fixtures. During this span, they have conceded a total of only three goals, averaging a measly 0.3 goals against per match. This defensive discipline is particularly pronounced when playing on home soil, where Morocco have won each of their last eight fixtures without conceding a single goal. With a backline expected to feature established names like Aguerd and El Yamiq protected by a defensively diligent midfield, the hosts possess the structural integrity to neutralize an underdog attack.
Furthermore, the stylistic matchup heavily favors a Moroccan shutout. Comoros are expected to deploy a defensive five-man backline, a formation designed to sit deep and absorb pressure. This tactical choice, while aimed at frustration, often results in the attacking outlets being isolated; Comoros average just 6.29 shots per match and 2.57 on target. Morocco’s territorial dominance, evidenced by an average of 59% possession (rising to 61% at home), suggests the game will be played almost entirely in the Comoros half. When Comoros do manage to break, they face a Moroccan defense that excels in recovery and transition prevention, as shown by their ability to limit opponents to fragments of chances. Historically, Morocco have a strong record in this fixture, having won three of the four previous meetings, including a 2-0 victory in the 2021 edition of this tournament. Given the hosts haven’t lost a competitive international on home turf since 2009, they are well-positioned to begin their campaign with a clean, professional victory.
What could go wrong The primary risk to a “win to nil” selection is the unpredictability of tournament openers, which can often be “scruffy” or decided by set-pieces. Comoros’ Youssouf M’Changama is noted as a specialist from dead-ball situations, and a single well-delivered corner or a lapse in concentration during a rare Moroccan defensive transition could spoil the clean sheet. Additionally, the immense pressure of being the host nation can sometimes lead to uncharacteristic individual errors in the early stages of a high-stakes curtain-raiser.
Correct score lean
Morocco 2-0
This scoreline is consistent with the established defensive and offensive patterns of both teams. Morocco average 1.8 goals per game and possess an expected goals (xG) of 1.82 per match, suggesting they consistently create high-quality chances. A 2-0 result matches their most recent AFCON meeting with Comoros in 2022 and reflects a game where the hosts find a breakthrough early and add a second to kill the game, rather than seeking a high-scoring rout. Given Comoros’ likely compact low block, a professional two-goal margin allows Morocco to secure the win without overextending themselves defensively.
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