bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Mozambique’s back three hold firm against the defending champions’ wing-back squeeze? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
▾
Bayern Munich are heavy favorites with 13 wins from 15 games and a record-breaking 55 goals scored. Their attacking metrics are peerless, but they have shown defensive vulnerability, including a recent 2-2 home draw against Mainz. Wolfsburg have a specific knack for scoring in this fixture, having done so in eight consecutive meetings. Given Bayern’s weakness in aerial duels and Wolfsburg’s strength in set pieces and through balls, the visitors are well-placed to score even in defeat. This market offers far better value than the outright home win.
▾
A 3-1 scoreline reflects Bayern’s average of 3.67 goals per game while accounting for their recent lack of clean sheets at the Allianz Arena. Wolfsburg have conceded 28 goals this season and are especially weak at defending the wings where Bayern's Olise and Díaz excel. However, Wolfsburg’s ability to create chances through individual skill and direct free kicks should see them beat a Bayern defense that is prone to individual errors. This scoreline captures the expected territorial dominance of the hosts and the visitors' historical scoring trend.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Ivory Coast vs Mozambique Predictions and Best Bets
Ivory Coast vs Mozambique — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Ivory Coast enter as significant favorites following their AFCON title win, with Mozambique’s high price reflecting their underdog status.
Low scores in favor of the Elephants lead the way, following their elite defensive record in the qualification stages.
With Ivory Coast conceding just twice in their last 10 games, the markets heavily favor one team failing to find the net.
- Ivory Coast’s defensive platform is eye-catching: 2 goals conceded in 10 WC Qualification Africa matches, with 8 clean sheets in 10, shaping a match where Mozambique may need rare, high-quality moments.
- The shot and possession gap hints at contrasting game plans: Ivory Coast average 56% possession and 10 shots per match in WC Qualification Africa, while Mozambique average 49% possession and 6.2 shots.
- Chance quality points the same way: Ivory Coast post 1.27 xG For and 0.49 xG Against per match in WC Qualification Africa, compared with Mozambique’s 0.91 xG For and 1.25 xG Against.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets in Qualifying
A comparison of how often each side prevented their opponents from scoring during their recent qualification journeys.
With only 2 goals conceded in 10 games, the champions have built their success on an incredibly solid defensive foundation.
Mozambique’s defense has been more generous, highlighted by their recent 4-1 friendly loss to Angola.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
This metric highlights the difference in offensive pressure generated by both sides in recent competitive fixtures.
The Elephants consistently dominate territory and generate significant shooting volume in the opponent’s third.
The Mambas rely on efficiency over volume, taking significantly fewer attempts on goal than their upcoming opponents.
Defending champions Ivory Coast begin the defence of their AFCON title with a meeting against Mozambique at the Marrakesh Stadium in Morocco. It’s an opener that pitches the reigning kings of the continent against a Mozambique side described as average — and one arriving with a few dents to the confidence.
Ivory Coast’s most recent AFCON success came at the 2023 CAF Africa Cup of Nations in early 2024, when they ended a spell in the wilderness by lifting the trophy on home soil. A mid-tournament managerial change proved decisive, with Emerse Fae appointed during the competition and steering Les Éléphants to the title.
There’s also a sense the squad has evolved again since then. Ousmane Diomande and Yan Diomande are cited as having come through, adding to what’s already framed as one of the strongest groups on the continent.
Mozambique, by contrast, come into this one after a bruising 4-1 friendly defeat to Angola last week. That result feeds into a run where they’ve managed two wins in their last eight matches — steady, competitive at times, but not exactly roaring into the tournament. Still, there’s experience and structure in the group, with Chiquinho Conde’s “Mambas” also noted as being reasonably competitive in 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification, and placed 102nd in the world by FIFA.
So it’s a familiar tournament storyline: the champions with depth and momentum, and the underdogs needing to be clever, stubborn, and opportunistic. The first 20 minutes could tell us plenty.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Ivory Coast have had a late disruption up front. Sebastian Haller has withdrawn due to injury, with versatile Aston Villa forward Evann Guessand called in as his replacement. That change nudges the focus towards how Ivory Coast build their front line without a like-for-like reference point — and whether the emphasis becomes more on movement, combinations and runs beyond, rather than a fixed target.
The predicted Ivory Coast XI is a 3-5-2: Lafont; Diomande, Kossounou, Ndicka; Doue, Kessie, Seri, Sangare, Diallo; Diomande, Krasso. With three centre-backs and a five across midfield, it reads like a side built to control central zones, protect against counter-attacks, and still produce width through wing-backs.
Mozambique are reported as fully fit and available, and they’re also predicted to line up 3-5-2: Siluane; Dove, Mexer, Reinildo; Diogo Calila, Domingues, Guima, Kambala, Langa; Catamo, Witi. Reinildo is highlighted as the “star of the show”, and in a back three that could matter: when you’re facing the champions, you want your best defender involved in as many defensive actions as possible, not stranded out wide in a back four.
With both teams sharing the same base shape on paper, the details become everything: who dares to press, who drops off, and whose wing-backs end up looking like wingers rather than auxiliary full-backs.
How the Match Could Be Played
A mirrored 3-5-2 often produces a match of small advantages rather than sweeping dominance. You get plenty of “man-for-man” reference points: each striker can lock onto a centre-back, each central midfielder can be tracked, and the wing-backs can stare each other down all afternoon. The problem for the underdog is that those duels tend to favour the side with the better individuals — and Ivory Coast are explicitly framed as having one of the strongest squads on the continent.
Ivory Coast’s likely route is to establish territory through the wing-backs. With Doue and Diallo named as part of the five, the width can pin Mozambique’s wing-backs deep, and that has a knock-on effect: it reduces Mozambique’s ability to release Catamo and Witi early, forcing them to receive closer to their own half. If Mozambique’s front two are spending their time chasing, it becomes a long evening.
In central areas, Kessie, Seri and Sangare suggest a midfield that can mix control with physicality. Against Mozambique’s Domingues, Guima and Kambala, that’s where the champions can try to tilt the pitch: win second balls, lock Mozambique into their own third, and recycle pressure until the gaps appear.
Mozambique’s best hope structurally is to keep their back three narrow and compact, inviting crosses rather than allowing straight-line passes into the channel. With Reinildo alongside Mexer and Dove, the aim would be to protect the box first and ask Ivory Coast to beat them with final-ball precision. A 3-5-2 can quickly become a 5-3-2 without the ball, and that kind of low block is designed to frustrate — especially early, when champions can sometimes play with the weight of expectation rather than freedom.
The key chess match is the space just outside Mozambique’s wing-backs. If Ivory Coast’s wide players push high, Mozambique can target the space behind them in transition. The danger is obvious: if you lose the ball with wing-backs advanced, there’s grass to attack. That’s where Ivory Coast’s back three — Diomande, Kossounou and Ndicka — must be proactive. Step in early, win the first duel, and stop the counter before it breathes.
In the final third, Ivory Coast’s forward pairing of Diomande and Krasso looks set up for combination play: one dropping into pockets, the other running beyond, and both trying to drag Mozambique’s centre-backs out of their ideal positions. Mozambique’s response will likely be to keep distances tight, concede low-risk areas, and try to nick moments rather than control phases.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
If Ivory Coast want to lean into control, their recent qualification numbers underline why they’d trust that approach. In WC Qualification Africa 2025, they average 56% possession and take 10 shots per match, which points to a team comfortable playing in the opponent’s half and generating volume. The chance quality also supports that: their xG For per match is 1.27, while their xG Against per match is 0.49 — a combination that suggests they create more and give up less, which is exactly the profile you want when you’re expected to dictate.
Defensively, the picture is even starker. Ivory Coast have conceded 2 goals in 10 WC Qualification Africa matches, averaging 0.2 conceded per match, and keeping 8 clean sheets in 10. That doesn’t guarantee anything in a one-off match, but it does support a tactical read in which Mozambique may struggle to find sustained attacking sequences, especially if Ivory Coast’s midfield screen can control transitions.
Mozambique’s qualification numbers show why they might choose caution. They average 49% possession and just 6.2 shots per match, and their chance creation is lower with an xG For of 0.91. At the other end, their xG Against is 1.25 and they concede 1.4 goals per match in the same qualification context. That combination suggests the Mambas can end up spending long spells absorbing pressure — and if you’re doing that against a side with Ivory Coast’s defensive record, your margin for error shrinks quickly.
Even the scoring rhythm points towards patience being a virtue for the champions. Ivory Coast score a goal every 60 minutes in WC Qualification Africa, while Mozambique score every 113 minutes. Over a match, that difference often shows up not as constant fireworks, but as one team needing fewer good moments to make the game state change.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is psychological as much as tactical: how Mozambique handle the opening spell after that 4-1 friendly defeat to Angola. Do they try to settle the match by keeping the ball, or do they default quickly to a compact shape and clear their lines? If Ivory Coast sense nerves, the wing-backs can turn the screw fast, forcing Mozambique to defend facing their own goal.
Next, watch the wing-back corridors. In a 3-5-2 v 3-5-2, the touchline often becomes the only “free” space, because the middle is crowded. If Ivory Coast can pin Mozambique’s wing-backs, the game tilts into Mozambique’s third; if Mozambique can force Ivory Coast’s wing-backs to retreat, Catamo and Witi become outlets and the match turns into a series of sprints rather than a siege.
Then there’s the centre of the pitch. With Kessie, Seri and Sangare named together, Ivory Coast can use that trio to control tempo: slow it down when they need calm, speed it up when Mozambique’s lines are stretched. Mozambique’s midfield three will need to be disciplined about distances — too deep and they invite pressure; too high and they risk leaving space between the lines.
Finally, keep an eye on the finishing phase without Haller. With Guessand in the squad and Krasso named in the predicted XI, Ivory Coast may lean more on movement and combinations rather than a single focal point. That can be harder to defend because it’s less predictable — but it can also require sharper timing, particularly against a back five that wants to keep everything in front.
What could go wrong with this read? Football doesn’t always reward the side with the cleaner numbers or the stronger paper shape. A mirrored system can become a game of isolated duels, where one miscontrol, one deflection, or one poorly defended transition flips the match on its head. And when you’re facing a team expected to dominate, surviving the early storm can change the emotional temperature of the whole stadium.
Best Bet for Ivory Coast vs Mozambique
[bt4y_article_veil]
Ivory Coast to win to nil
The defensive record of Ivory Coast coming into this tournament suggests a team that is exceptionally difficult to break down. During their recent qualification cycle, the reigning champions conceded only two goals across 10 matches, maintaining a remarkable sequence of eight clean sheets. This defensive stability is built on a high-performing back three featuring Ousmane Diomande and Odilon Kossounou, protected by a physically dominant midfield of Franck Kessie and Ibrahim Sangare.
The tactical setup further reinforces the likelihood of a shutout. By deploying a 3-5-2 with wing-backs like Doue and Diallo, Ivory Coast are expected to pin Mozambique’s wide players deep into their own half. This structural dominance limits the opposition’s ability to transition into attack, often leaving their forwards isolated. Furthermore, the champions have shown they can control the tempo of matches, averaging 56% possession and allowing an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.49 per match.
Mozambique, by contrast, enter this fixture following a 4-1 loss to Angola and have struggled for offensive output against elite opposition. They average just 6.2 shots per match and fail to create high-quality chances, evidenced by an xG for of 0.91. Given that Ivory Coast have kept clean sheets in 80% of their recent competitive fixtures and Mozambique face a significant step up in quality from their recent friendly opponents, the most logical outcome is a victory for the favorites accompanied by a clean sheet.
What could go wrong
A mirrored 3-5-2 system can occasionally lead to a stalemate if the underdog’s defensive block remains disciplined. If Mozambique, led by Atletico Madrid’s Reinildo, can frustrate the Ivorian attack for the first hour, the pressure of being defending champions could lead to rushed decisions or defensive lapses on the counter-attack. Additionally, the absence of a fixed target man like Sebastian Haller may initially disrupt the rhythm of the Ivorian frontline.
Correct score lean
Ivory Coast 2-0 Mozambique
A 2-0 scoreline aligns with the statistical trends and tactical profiles of both nations. Ivory Coast’s qualification data shows a team that is patient rather than explosive, scoring a goal every 60 minutes on average. Defensively, they are nearly impenetrable, having conceded just 0.2 goals per match recently. Mozambique’s recent 4-1 defeat to Angola suggests defensive vulnerabilities that a strike force featuring Jean-Philippe Krasso and the emerging Yan Diomande can exploit. A two-goal margin reflects the champions’ superior squad depth while acknowledging Mozambique’s likely compact 5-3-2 defensive shape designed to limit a total blowout.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
