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Can Egypt’s clean-sheet platform handle Benin’s aerial threat in the last 16? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Egypt has built their tournament success on a solid defensive foundation, keeping clean sheets in their last two matches and conceding only once in the group stage. Benin has found goals very difficult to come by, scoring just once in three games and posting a tournament-low shot conversion rate. While Egypt possesses elite attacking talent in Salah and Marmoush, their overall approach has been workmanlike and controlled rather than expansive. This suggests a match where Egypt controls the play and secures a win without the scoreline becoming particularly high.
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This scoreline aligns with Egypt's defensive dominance and Benin's lack of clinical finishing. Egypt has shown they can stifle opposition attacks, while their own forward line generates a high volume of shots (15.3 per game). Benin conceded three goals in their final group game against Senegal, showing vulnerability when facing top-tier North African or West African sides. A 2-0 win allows Egypt to utilize their superior possession and technical skill to find the net twice while relying on their settled back four to secure a third consecutive clean sheet.
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Egypt vs Benin Predictions and Best Bets
Egypt vs Benin — William Hill Market Snapshot
Key markets and sample William Hill odds based on current tournament performance and disciplinary stats.
Egypt’s unbeaten run and high possession stats position them as strong leaders in the match result market.
Low scoring trends for both teams highlight narrow margins as the primary outcome for this knockout fixture.
- Egypt’s group-stage efficiency stands out: three AFCON matches, three goals scored and only one conceded, with consecutive clean sheets helping set a controlled tone for knockout football.
- Shot pressure from the star names: Mohamed Salah has two goals in two AFCON appearances with 2.5 shots per game, while Omar Marmoush averages 4.5 shots per game and has one goal.
- Benin’s tournament challenge in numbers: one goal scored across three AFCON matches and 9.7 shots per game suggests they’ve had to work hard for chances, making set patterns and duels crucial.
Technical Control: Tournament Pass Accuracy
Both teams have displayed a high level of technical discipline in possession during the group stages.
The Pharaohs’ ability to retain the ball supports their patient build-up play and defensive structure.
Despite lower possession, Benin’s high accuracy suggests they are careful with the ball when they have it.
Attacking Pressure: Average Shots per Match
A significant gap in shot volume exists between these two sides, indicating who likely controls the final third.
Led by Marmoush and Salah, Egypt constantly asks questions of opposition goalkeepers.
Benin averages fewer than 10 attempts per game, relying heavily on direct play and set-piece headers.
Egypt come into the Africa Cup of Nations knockout rounds with a very specific itch to scratch. Group B winners now face Benin at Adrar Stadium on Monday, with a quarter-final place on the line — and with the added edge of trying to avoid another round-of-16 exit.
The group stage offered a clear narrative. Egypt opened with a hard-fought, comeback win over Zimbabwe and followed it by keeping consecutive clean sheets, including a 1-0 win over South Africa and a 0-0 draw with Angola. It’s not been a free-scoring romp; it’s been workmanlike, controlled, and increasingly secure.
Benin arrive carrying a different kind of milestone. Their first-ever 90-minute win at this event came in this edition’s group stage, a 1-0 victory over Botswana. That sits alongside a tougher line in the same section: a 1-0 defeat to DR Congo and a 3-0 loss to Senegal. Put it together and you get a team that has already learned, the hard way, how unforgiving this phase of the tournament can be.
Knockout football doesn’t ask whether your story is poetic, just whether it’s true for one more night. Egypt will look to keep theirs simple. Benin will look to make it complicated.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Egypt’s possible starting lineup reads like a familiar back four with a strong attacking trio behind the striker: El Shenawy; Hany, Ibrahim, Rabia, Hamdi; Attia, Fathy, Zizo; Salah, Marmoush, Trezeguet.
That configuration suggests a side built to control the middle and still spring quality in the final third. Two central midfielders in Attia and Fathy hints at stability: protection for the back line and a platform to recycle possession quickly. In front of them, Zizo looks like the link — the player who can connect the patient phases with the sharp ones.
Then there’s the headline edge: Salah, Marmoush and Trezeguet in the same front line. Even without needing to invent roles, the basic implication is obvious — Egypt have multiple ways to threaten, with attackers who can shoot and carry the ball into dangerous areas. With that trio operating ahead of a double pivot, Egypt can attack while still keeping their structure intact.
Benin’s possible lineup suggests a 4-2-3-1 of their own: Dandjinou; Ouorou, Verdon, Tijani, Roche; Imourane, Attidjikou; Tosin, Dodo, Olaitan; Mounie.
On paper it’s a neat match-up: two banks of four and a line of three behind a central forward, aiming to keep the game compact and decide it in the spaces between. Benin’s front six, though, hints at a slightly different emphasis. With Mounie up top and Olaitan in the line behind, there’s a natural route for direct play and second-ball contests — especially when the opposition are trying to press and squeeze the pitch.
How the Match Could Be Played
Egypt’s recent clean sheets point towards a team that’s growing into control without becoming passive. A back four anchored by Ibrahim and Rabia, protected by Attia and Fathy, is a set-up that can defend in layers: one line to delay, another to challenge, and enough bodies behind the ball to prevent the match turning into a track meet.
That matters against Benin because of where their attacking threat is most likely to live. With Mounie leading the line and listed as an aerial presence in the tournament, Benin have a route that doesn’t require long spells of possession: get the ball forward, compete, and try to create chaos around the second ball. If Egypt’s centre-backs and midfield screen are switched on, they can turn that into a cycle of regains and resets. If they’re half a step late, it becomes a match of scrambles and uncomfortable clearances.
In possession, Egypt’s likely shape gives them obvious triangles. The full-backs can support the wide attackers; Zizo can offer a central option between the lines; and the double pivot can keep the ball moving until the right lane opens. The key question is tempo. Egypt can afford to be patient — especially when they’ve shown they can keep the door shut — but there’s also a risk in letting Benin stay comfortable in their block for too long.
Benin’s set-up suggests they will try to keep Egypt in front of them. Verdon and Tijani at centre-back reads like a pairing that can defend the box and deal with crosses, while the double pivot of Imourane and Attidjikou can sit close to the defence to protect the central channel. The wide players, Tosin and Dodo, can help narrow the pitch when Egypt are building, then become outlets when Benin win it.
That transition moment is Benin’s opportunity to make this feel like a cup tie rather than a technical exercise. Egypt’s defenders may dominate possession phases, but Benin can still threaten if they can turn regains into quick entries — especially into Mounie’s zones, where he can bring others into play. Olaitan’s role becomes important here: a runner who can arrive around the striker, rather than being stranded watching long balls sail past.
There’s also an aerial theme baked into this. Egypt’s tournament aerials won number is high, and individual tallies show multiple players competing well. Benin, for their part, have standout aerial output through Mounie and a decent team figure too. That combination suggests a match where the ball may spend meaningful time in the air, not just on the grass — and where the outcome of a handful of headers can shape the feel of entire phases.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Egypt’s group stage record tells its own tale: three matches, three goals scored, one conceded. It’s not flashy, but it’s efficient — and it aligns with the note about consecutive clean sheets. With 56.9% possession and 82.4% pass accuracy in the tournament, Egypt look like a side capable of having the ball without losing their defensive grip.
They’re also generating attempts. Egypt’s 15.3 shots per game in the tournament suggests they’re not simply protecting what they have; they’re creating a steady stream of moments. That matters because knockout matches can turn into tests of nerve: if you can keep producing chances, you keep giving yourself ways out of a tight scoreline.
Individually, the headline is Salah: two goals in two appearances with a 7.85 rating, plus 2.5 shots per game. That combination signals both productivity and volume — he’s not waiting for a single perfect chance; he’s repeatedly getting into positions to affect the match. Marmoush adds another layer, with a goal in his two tournament appearances and 4.5 shots per game, which hints at a player regularly pulling the trigger and keeping the opposition defence busy.
Benin’s tournament numbers are a different profile. They’ve scored once in three matches and conceded four, while averaging 9.7 shots per game. That gap in shot volume matters because it speaks to sustained threat — not just whether you can score, but whether you can keep asking questions. Still, Benin’s passing figure is strong at 83.9%, with 53.6% possession, which suggests they can keep the ball when they choose to. The challenge is what happens after the pass: whether possession becomes penetration.
Benin’s key outputs point towards how they might do it. Roche has their only tournament goal and is also listed with a strong rating, while Mounie has an assist and a huge aerials-won number per match. That suggests Benin’s most reliable “in” into the game might be set around duels and deliveries, trying to win territory and make Egypt defend the box rather than simply shepherding play in midfield.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is the early tone-setter: does Egypt turn their control into an early run of chances, or does Benin’s block slow everything down? Egypt’s shot volume in the tournament suggests they can produce opportunities, but Benin’s best spells might come from turning the match into a series of stops, starts, and contested seconds.
The second moment is any phase where the ball starts arriving into Mounie. His aerial output and assist point to a forward who can turn “nothing” into “something” — a flick, a lay-off, a free-kick won, a corner forced. If Benin can make those moments repeat, they can make Egypt defend emotionally as well as tactically.
The third is how Egypt’s front line manages its decision-making. With Salah and Marmoush both posting strong shot numbers, Egypt have two attackers who can keep the goalkeeper busy. But there’s always a balance in knockout football between shooting early and building the cleaner chance. If Egypt choose well, they can combine patience with punch. If they don’t, the game can drift into frustration.
What could go wrong with this read? A lot of knockout matches ignore logic. A single defensive lapse can overturn long spells of control; a team that’s created less can still strike first; and once the scoreline tilts, the match becomes about emotion, urgency and reaction rather than the original plan. Even a side carrying clean sheets into the tie can find itself dealing with the kind of scrappy, bouncing-ball moment that doesn’t care about trends.
Best Bet for Egypt vs Benin
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Egypt to Win and Under 2.5 Goals
Egypt enters the knockout stage having established a clear identity of defensive resilience and efficiency. After opening the tournament with a 2-1 victory over Zimbabwe, they secured a 1-0 win against South Africa and a goalless draw with Angola. These consecutive clean sheets demonstrate a back line that has grown increasingly secure under pressure. Egypt’s statistical profile supports this disciplined approach, as they have conceded just one goal across three group matches. While they maintain a significant share of possession at 56.9% and an impressive pass accuracy of 82.4%, they have not engaged in high-scoring affairs, preferring to control the tempo and minimize risks.
Benin’s path to the Round of 16 has been characterized by a struggle to find the net. They have scored only once in their three matches—a 1-0 victory over Botswana—and failed to score in their other fixtures against DR Congo and Senegal. Their offensive output is further hampered by a shot conversion rate of just 4%, the second lowest in the tournament. Defensively, Benin has shown they can be breached, conceding four goals in the group stage. However, their likely tactical setup of a 4-2-3-1 suggests they will attempt to remain compact and frustrate Egypt’s attacking trio.
Given that Egypt has shown the ability to dominate matches without needing a high volume of goals, and considering Benin’s documented difficulty in creating clear-cut chances against top-tier opposition, a low-scoring victory for the Pharaohs is the most logical outcome. Egypt’s experience in navigating these tight tournament structures, combined with a defense that has kept back-to-back clean sheets, points toward a controlled performance where one or two goals will be enough to progress.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this selection is a momentary lapse in concentration from an Egyptian defense that has otherwise been reliable. Benin possesses a significant aerial threat in Steve Mounie, who has recorded high aerial-win numbers and a tournament assist. If Benin can manufacture a goal from a set-piece or a direct second-ball situation, Egypt would be forced to abandon their patient approach, potentially opening the game up and pushing the total goals over the 2.5 threshold.
Correct score lean: Egypt 2-0 Benin
The 2-0 scoreline reflects the significant gap in quality and current form between these two sides while staying consistent with the tournament’s scoring trends. Egypt has averaged one goal per game in the group stage but possesses high-volume shooters like Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, who average 2.5 and 4.5 shots per game respectively. Against a Benin side that conceded three goals to Senegal and has struggled for offensive rhythm, Egypt has the tools to find the net twice. Defensively, Egypt’s recent record of consecutive clean sheets makes it unlikely that a goal-shy Benin will break through.
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