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Can the Super Eagles’ heavy artillery silence the Atlas Lions in Morocco?
The Africa Cup of Nations returns to the calendar on Sunday, December 21, bringing with it the unique brand of vibrant chaos and high-stakes drama that defines the tournament. This year, the 35th edition descends upon Morocco, a nation that has waited nearly 50 years to reclaim the continental crown.
Boxing betting tips: AFCON Outright Predictions
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Joshua’s size, reach and knockout-heavy record point towards a finish, yet a 14-month lay-off leaves room for a steadier start. Targeting rounds 3–4 leans into the expectation of a stoppage without demanding an instant blowout, while still respecting Paul’s activity and ambition. It’s a view, not a promise, stake carefully.
- Morocco are currently ranked 11th in the world, the highest of any African nation.
- Nigeria are eight-time finalists in the history of the Africa Cup of Nations.
- Twelve nations have successfully won the tournament when hosting it.
AFCON 2025 — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key outright markets with probabilities implied from the listed odds.
The outright pricing makes Morocco the clear market leader, with Egypt next in and Nigeria a notable price in double figures. Probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds (not a model).
These prices reflect the perceived route strength: Morocco are expected to be there late, while Nigeria sit in the chasing group. Probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
The goalscorer market is headed by elite finishers. Probabilities shown are implied from listed odds.
The hosts, currently ranked 11th in the world, enter the competition with the weight of history on their shoulders and a squad teeming with elite talent, but the pressure of delivering on home soil can often be a suffocating burden.
History provides a glimmer of hope for the Atlas Lions, with 12 previous host nations managing to lift the trophy on their own turf, including the Ivory Coast in the previous edition.
Tournament Context
Host advantage and historical patterns heading into AFCON 2025.
Home advantage has converted into titles more often than not.
The highest-ranked African nation entering the tournament.
Nigeria Pedigree
Experience and attacking emphasis shape expectations.
A nation accustomed to deep tournament runs.
A clear tilt toward firepower over defensive balance.
However, the path to glory in 2025 is complicated by scheduling constraints. With European clubs only releasing players less than a week before the opening fixtures, national team coaches face a race against time to forge cohesion. This lack of preparation time often acts as a leveller, reducing the gap between the star-studded favourites and the more disciplined, drilled tactical units.
As the continent prepares for a month of footballing theatre, the outright market suggests a tight tussle at the top, but the real value may lie in looking past the obvious frontrunners.
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Best Bet
We provide just one primary selection for the outright winner market to maintain accountability and clarity in our analysis. While the unpredictable nature of knockout football means guarantees are impossible, the evidence points towards one nation offering a significant discrepancy between their price and their potential ceiling.
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Nigeria to win AFCON
The outright market for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations has largely focused on the solidity of Morocco and the star power of Egypt, leaving Nigeria drifting to a tantalising 9/1. While the Super Eagles have had their issues in qualification, the raw attacking output available to them suggests they are being undervalued compared to their rivals.
The narrative surrounding Nigeria leading into this tournament has been dominated by scepticism regarding their defensive stability, and rightfully so. The omission of Nottingham Forest defender Ola Aina and Udinese goalkeeper Maduka Okoye are significant gambles by Eric Chelle. However, the betting market appears to have overreacted to these defensive concerns, pushing the Super Eagles’ price out to nearly double figures. This creates a value opportunity for bettors willing to back attacking brilliance over defensive pragmatism.
When comparing Nigeria to the other market leaders, the flaws in the opposition become apparent. The favourites, Morocco, are priced incredibly short at around 11/4. While they have a squad featuring Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz, the pressure on the hosts is immense. Playing in front of expectant home crowds can turn toxic if an early goal is not scored, and the value in backing a team at such short odds in a volatile tournament is minimal.
Egypt, the second favourites at 6/1, are heavily reliant on Mohamed Salah. The Liverpool forward has faced intense scrutiny regarding his club form recently, and there are valid questions about whether he can carry a nation if he is not firing on all cylinders. Without a peak Salah, Egypt lack the supporting cast to terrify defences in the same way Nigeria can.
Then there is Senegal, the champions of 2021. Their golden generation, led by Sadio Mane, Idrissa Gueye, and Kalidou Koulibaly, is undeniably talented but aging. Tournament football in the heat of Morocco is physically demanding, and there is a sense that the Lions of Teranga may have already seen their best days.
In contrast, Nigeria’s attack is in its prime. Victor Osimhen is one of the world’s most feared strikers, and his partnership with Lookman offers a blend of physicality and technical guile. The “attack is the best form of defence” philosophy is risky, but it is a strategy that raises the team’s ceiling. If Nigeria concede two, they have the personnel to score three. In a field where every top team has question marks—be it age, form, or administrative chaos like the situation in Cameroon with Samuel Eto’o and the dual-manager confusion—Nigeria’s specific flaw (defence) seems the most manageable when offset by their overwhelming strength (attack).
What could go wrong? The obvious risk is that the defensive gamble backfires spectacularly. By leaving out experienced defensive operators like Aina, Nigeria are vulnerable to counter-attacks, particularly against organised sides like Tunisia or South Africa who could exploit spaces left by a top-heavy formation. Additionally, a reliance on simply outscoring opponents leaves little margin for error; if Osimhen or Lookman have an off-day in a knockout game, the team lacks the defensive structure to grind out a 1-0 win.
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