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Anfield under the lights provides the setting for a classic David versus Goliath clash this Monday, as League One Barnsley travel to face Premier League giants Liverpool in the FA Cup third round. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Liverpool vs Barnsley, which has been placed with Bet365:
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Why this pick
Manchester City’s relentless attack (2.14 goals per game) meets a United defence conceding 1.52 goals per 90. Crucially, United’s "open style" and high shot volume (16.7 per game) create a chaotic tactical profile that invites end-to-end action. With United likely to start fast at home and City lethal on the counter as the game stretches, the conditions are perfect for goals to fall in both periods.
Why this pick
Cunha has committed 12 fouls this season and wins just 43.6% of his duels. In a match where City dominate possession (59%), he will be forced into persistent defensive chasing. United’s exposed midfield structure leaves him vulnerable to mistimed challenges when trying to disrupt City’s passing rhythm, making him a strong candidate for a booking in a heated derby atmosphere.
Why this pick
Cherki is a defensive liability, contributing to defensive phases at a rate of just 10% compared to other wingers. He wins less than half his duels (46.9%). Facing a United side that attacks wide with energetic full-backs, Cherki will be forced into uncomfortable defensive positions. His lack of tackling instinct significantly increases the chance of a cynical or clumsy foul when tracking back.
This 175/1 longshot is built on the expectation of an explosive, open derby. We back United’s high shot volume and City’s elite finishing to deliver goals in both halves, while targeting Cunha and Cherki—two attack-minded players with poor duel success rates—to fall foul of the referee in the heat of the midfield battle.
While the 57-place gap in the football pyramid suggests a routine home win, Arne Slot’s side enters the fixture with a point to prove. Despite a 10-match unbeaten run, the Reds have drawn their last three games, struggling to find that killer instinct. With key stars like Mohamed Salah on international duty and heavy rotation confirmed, the door is slightly ajar for a Barnsley side that thrives on chaos. However, the Tykes concede heavily on their travels, setting the stage for Liverpool’s fringe stars—and emerging talents—to seize the spotlight.
Liverpool vs Barnsley Bet Builder Tip
Federico Chiesa: 2+ Shots on Target
The narrative surrounding Liverpool’s attack for this fixture begins and ends with the absence of Mohamed Salah. With the Egyptian talisman away on international duty and Dominik Szoboszlai listed as unavailable due to an ankle injury, the burden of creative output and finishing falls squarely on Federico Chiesa. The Italian winger is the most senior attacker available in the expected starting lineup, and his statistical profile suggests he will relish the responsibility against League One opposition.
Chiesa has played 228 minutes of Premier League football in the 2025/2026 campaign, and despite the limited game time, his volume is undeniable. He has unleashed 12 shots in that short window. To put that into perspective, he is averaging a shot roughly every 19 minutes of play. In a match where Liverpool are expected to dominate 60% of the possession and pin Barnsley deep into their own defensive third, Chiesa’s trigger-happy approach is exactly what the game state demands.
Barnsley’s defensive metrics are alarming for a team visiting Anfield. They have conceded an average of 1.83 goals per game over their last 30 matches. They give up chances, and against a Liverpool side that averages 15.1 shots per game, the goalkeeper will be busy. Chiesa, operating from the right or drifting centrally, naturally finds himself in high-value positions. His shot map confirms he is not afraid to fire from outside the box—registering three shots from range this season—but he does his best work inside the area, where he has taken nine shots.
Furthermore, Chiesa has already found the net twice this season in the league, with an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 1.23. His xG on Target (xGOT) is even higher at 1.63, indicating that when he hits the target, he hits it with quality. Against a lower-league defence that struggles to track runners and block passing lanes, Chiesa will have the time and space to shift the ball onto his preferred right foot and test the keeper repeatedly. He is the focal point of this rotated attack, and everything will go through him.
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Trey Nyoni: 2+ Shots on Target
With the senior midfield rotated, 18-year-old Trey Nyoni is lined up to start in the engine room alongside Alexis Mac Allister. While primarily a midfielder, Nyoni’s profile is far more attacking than a traditional holding player. His player data lists “Attacking Midfielder” among his positions, and his record at youth level proves he has an eye for goal.
Nyoni has scored four goals in 35 appearances for Liverpool’s U21 side, showing he knows how to time his runs into the box. In this specific matchup, the tactical landscape heavily favours Liverpool’s midfielders getting shots away. Barnsley will likely defend with a low block, packing the penalty area with bodies to deny space to the forwards. This dynamic typically forces the ball back to the edge of the box, where midfielders like Nyoni can step onto it and shoot.
Liverpool average 15.1 shots per match, and in a game where they will enjoy the lion’s share of territory, the midfielders will essentially operate as auxiliary attackers. Nyoni will be eager to make a mark in his first major start at Anfield. He faces a Barnsley side that is weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas, potentially leading to free-kick scrambles where shots fly in from all angles. Given the massive gap in quality and Barnsley’s leaky defence—shipping nearly two goals a game—Nyoni will have opportunities to pull the trigger.
Rio Ngumoha: 2+ Shots on Target
Completing this ambitious trio is 17-year-old sensation Rio Ngumoha, who is tipped to start on the left wing. Despite his tender age, Ngumoha has already shown a ruthless efficiency that betrays his lack of experience. In his fleeting Premier League minutes (48 minutes total), he has taken one shot and scored one goal. That represents a 100% conversion rate and a 100% shot-on-target rate. He doesn’t waste time.
Ngumoha has also netted twice in nine games for the U21s since January, proving his goal-scoring form is current. He faces a Barnsley defence that is statistically vulnerable to pace and direct running. The visitors concede goals in bunches and have lost four of their last six away games. For a direct winger like Ngumoha, this is the perfect environment.
The youngster’s primary position is Left Winger, allowing him to cut inside onto his right foot—a classic route to goal for modern forwards. With Chiesa occupying the defence on the right and Barnsley likely overwhelmed by Liverpool’s passing tempo (86.7% accuracy), isolation moments will occur on the flank. Ngumoha has the technical ability to beat his full-back and shoot. Liverpool need goals to break their draw streak, and the youngsters know that shooting on sight is the quickest way to impress the manager. Against a League One defence leaking 1.83 goals a game, Ngumoha will have ample opportunity to test the gloves.
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