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The Premier League returns from the final international break of 2025 with a fascinating lunchtime clash in Lancashire as Burnley welcome Chelsea to Turf Moor. Scott Parker’s side are hovering just above the relegation places after a bruising run of results, while the visitors arrive in far healthier shape, sitting third and pushing to close the gap on Arsenal and Manchester City. Chelsea have enjoyed this time slot and this ground in recent seasons, yet Burnley still carry an attacking threat, particularly through Zian Flemming. With both managers under very different types of pressure, there are plenty of tactical angles to explore.
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Our Bet Builder for Burnley vs Chelsea focuses on team shooting and corner metrics, alongside a disciplined angle on cards. Rather than chasing a single result, we are combining several events that reflect how the match is likely to flow: Chelsea controlling territory, Burnley relying on direct attacks and the contest carrying a competitive edge. Below we break down each selection in detail.
Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Burnley vs Chelsea, which has been placed with Bet365:
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Why this pick
Leeds return home after heavy defeats at Brighton and Nottingham Forest, extending an eight-match run without a clean sheet. Their high-energy style creates chances but leaves defensive gaps, especially against top-half opposition. Aston Villa, revitalised under Unai Emery, have won five of their last six league games and smashed Bournemouth 4-0 to surge into the top six. The Lions dominate newly promoted sides and will attack Elland Road with confidence, yet their front-foot approach should also open spaces for Leeds’ forwards. With both clubs needing points and neither defence entirely reliable, goals at both ends look highly plausible.
Why this pick
Watkins leads an Aston Villa attack packed with creative support from Buendia, McGinn and Rogers. Kamara and Tielemans control midfield possession, allowing Emery’s side to build patiently around the Leeds penalty area. The Whites’ back line has struggled to deal with movement and crosses, conceding regularly and rarely looking settled. With service arriving from both flanks, Watkins should receive several chances to shoot, whether through cut-backs, low crosses or set-piece situations. Our selection requires two efforts on target rather than goals, so a mix of firm headers and driven strikes gives plenty of routes for this leg to win.
Why this pick
Calvert-Lewin functions as Everton’s central reference point whenever he starts, occupying defenders with his strength and aerial ability. His side continually look to deliver early crosses and direct passes into his path, knowing he can win first contact or capitalise on loose balls. That approach naturally generates repeated shooting opportunities: powerful headers, quick swivels from knock-downs and low attempts from inside the box. A requirement of just two shots on target suits his profile, as the bet settles on involvement rather than finishing quality. Provided he plays significant minutes, the volume of service he receives makes this a logical inclusion.
This Bet Builder leans on realistic game scripts and player roles. Leeds vs Aston Villa is backed to produce goals at both ends, with Watkins heavily involved for the visitors, while Calvert-Lewin’s central role for Everton adds a separate shots angle. Together, the legs combine into a sensible, attack-focused multiple.
Burnley vs Chelsea Bet Builder Tip
1. Burnley – Over 2.5 Shots on Target
Burnley’s league position looks grim, but their attacking play has not been entirely toothless. Parker’s men have been involved in a five-goal thriller against Wolves and a 3-2 defeat at West Ham in their last three outings, so they clearly know how to create chances even when results go against them. That willingness to commit players forward, plus an urgent need for points, makes a shots-on-target angle particularly appealing.
The Clarets’ defensive numbers are poor – third-worst in the division with 22 goals conceded – and that almost guarantees game states where they are chasing the match. When a side concedes frequently, they often spend long spells behind, increasing the likelihood of sustained attacking phases rather than simply sitting in a low block. If Chelsea score first, Burnley will have to respond, and that usually translates into more attempts on goal.
Personnel also support this view. Zian Flemming has three goals in four Premier League starts and looks increasingly comfortable as the main attacking reference. He is likely to be backed up by creative support from wide areas, with players such as Bruun Larsen and Anthony able to drive inside and strike from distance. Parker has hinted at using Lesley Ugochukwu in an advanced role behind the striker, which adds another player capable of testing the goalkeeper with efforts from the edge of the box.
Turf Moor itself remains an important factor. Burnley’s supporters understand the situation and will expect their team to show bravery rather than passivity. Early in the game, we can anticipate direct balls towards Flemming, quick switches of play and shots taken whenever Chelsea’s structure appears stretched. Even if Armando Broja only makes the bench after his international scare, his presence as an option gives Parker another forward who likes to shoot quickly when presented with openings.
Chelsea have tightened up away from home, winning their last two league trips without conceding, but that does not mean opponents fail to hit the target. Clean sheets can be secured with saves as well as blocks, and Robert Sanchez is likely to face moments of genuine work, especially if Burnley find joy from set pieces. Considering Burnley’s desperation, recent goal-heavy matches and the expected pattern of Chelsea leading and the hosts responding, three or more shots on target for the Clarets looks a realistic and attractive component of this Bet Builder.
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2. Chelsea – Over 6.5 Shots on Target
Chelsea approach this fixture with confidence after comfortable wins against Tottenham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Against Wolves, the Blues scored three times with Joao Pedro, Malo Gusto and Pedro Neto all on target, underscoring the variety in Enzo Maresca’s attacking options. When a side sits third in the table and carries that level of firepower, a generous shots-on-target line naturally comes under consideration.
Burnley’s defensive struggles are well documented. Only two teams have conceded more league goals this season, and the Clarets are shipping just over two per match on average. Seven goals conceded in their last three outings highlight how easily opponents are able to carve them open. When those structural weaknesses meet a Chelsea side that are finding their rhythm, we can expect Sanchez’s team-mates to be spending plenty of time in Burnley’s half.
Maresca’s system encourages constant movement from wide players and midfielders, creating multiple shooting threats beyond the central striker. Garnacho, Estevao and Pedro will look to cut inside and test the goalkeeper, while overlapping full-backs such as Gusto and Cucurella offer additional crossing and shooting angles. With Enzo Fernandez and Caicedo capable of efforts from range, Chelsea have numerous routes to putting Dubravka under pressure.
Given the lunchtime kick-off record – seven straight Premier League wins at 12:30pm – Chelsea are unlikely to approach this game timidly. A dominant display in terms of attempts on goal feels very plausible, making seven or more shots on target a logical piece of our puzzle.
3. Burnley – Over 2 Corners
Corners often reflect pressure rather than pure quality, and Burnley’s situation should produce enough attacking sequences to clear a modest line. Parker’s team may have defensive issues, but they are not known for parking the bus. Instead, they rely on wide attacks and crosses, a style that naturally leads to deflections, blocks and set pieces.
With Walker and Hartman likely to operate as full-backs, Burnley can utilise overlapping runs to overload Chelsea’s flanks. Bruun Larsen and Anthony prefer to receive the ball high and wide before driving towards the box, and those actions frequently end with low crosses cut out by defenders or shots deflected behind. Flemming’s presence as a penalty-area target increases the incentive to send early balls into dangerous zones, further raising the chance of corners.
Game state also supports this angle. Should Chelsea take control early, Burnley will need to advance lines and pin the visitors back whenever possible. Even short periods of pressure can be enough to generate three or more corners across 90 minutes, particularly if Burnley chase an equaliser or late consolation.
Given their urgent need for points, we should expect Parker’s men to keep attacking right to the final whistle. With a direct style, aerial focus and creative wide players, Burnley look well placed to force at least three corners.
4. Chelsea – Over 5 Corners
If Burnley are likely to have moments on the front foot, Chelsea should dominate territory for longer spells. Maresca’s philosophy revolves around controlled possession, quick switches of play and high full-backs, all of which contribute heavily to corner counts. At Stamford Bridge, his side have already shown an ability to overwhelm opponents with repeated attacks; a similar pattern can emerge in Lancashire against a side struggling defensively.
Burnley’s back line has leaked goals and often retreats toward their own area under pressure. When defenders drop deep, they tend to block crosses and shots rather than stepping out early, which in turn produces more balls behind for corners. With Gusto and Cucurella overlapping, and Garnacho plus Estevao cutting inside, Chelsea will be constantly looking to exploit the wide spaces and deliver into the penalty area.
Set-piece routines are also important for a team harbouring title aspirations. Training-ground moves often begin from corners, and Chelsea will not hesitate to force them whenever possible, especially if they sense vulnerability in Burnley’s marking. Over five corners therefore feels a fair expectation, particularly if the Blues spend long periods camped around the hosts’ box.
Given the combination of tactical approach, quality in wide areas and Burnley’s defensive posture, six or more corners for Chelsea form a strong statistical and stylistic fit within this Bet Builder.
5. Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards
Lunchtime fixtures following an international break can be surprisingly feisty. Players return with varying fitness levels, managers demand immediate intensity and referees are under instructions to clamp down on dissent and cynical fouls. Burnley versus Chelsea has all the ingredients for a card-heavy contest, which is why backing both sides to pick up at least two bookings each makes sense.
Burnley are battling against the drop, and teams in that situation tend to rely on aggression to disrupt technically superior opponents. Parker’s midfielders will need to press Enzo Fernandez and Caicedo aggressively, which can lead to late tackles or tactical fouls whenever Chelsea break lines. Full-backs tasked with stopping Garnacho and Estevao are also prime candidates for cautions, especially if they are beaten for pace.
On the other side, Chelsea will expect to control possession, but that does not exempt them from disciplinary trouble. When a high-pressing side lose the ball, they often resort to quick shirt pulls or blocks to prevent counter-attacks, and Burnley’s direct style gives them opportunities to draw those fouls. With emotions running high around the relegation zone and Chelsea pushing to maintain a title challenge, frustration and professional fouls feel almost inevitable.
The combined pressure, tactical demands and physical match-ups strongly support a scenario where both teams end the afternoon with multiple names in the referee’s book.
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