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Before diving into today’s targeted selections, here is a quick word on how these recommendations are shaped. Each pick is grounded in a blend of proven race trends, trainer patterns, horse profiles and situational advantages. The aim is to spotlight the runners best positioned to outperform expectations on Thursday 11 December, supported by clear reasoning you can trust.
What follows is a confident, forward-looking guide designed for punters who want not only a tip, but the logic behind it. Our lead selection below contains extended insight to help you fully understand the angle and sharpen your betting approach.
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Rationale:Haut Folin represents a compelling seasonal opportunity based on his long-standing tendency to excel first time out. His record when returning fresh is far superior to his end-of-season form, making today’s conditions almost tailor-made for him. Venetia Williams frequently targets Warwick successfully in December, reinforcing confidence in this placement. Dropping to a mark of 99 places him on a competitive perch, and Charlie Deutsch is adept at managing horses that need measured, confident handling. The likely race tempo and ground profile should enable Haut Folin to settle into his preferred rhythm, giving him every chance to strike early in the campaign.
Summary: Early-season consistency and ideal conditions → Haut Folin to win
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Rationale: One More Stroke’s comeback at Wetherby contained far more promise than the form book alone reveals. He travelled well for much of the contest on his first start after wind surgery, understandably tiring late on after the lay-off and inconvenienced by losing a shoe. That outing should bring him on significantly fitness-wise. Dropping to around 2m4f at Newcastle suits his proven stamina while avoiding an extreme test. Donald McCain places his handicappers shrewdly, and Brian Hughes is likely to adopt an assertive, forward-minded ride to exploit that staying power. Off 113, he looks fairly treated and ready to improve.
Summary: Improved fitness, trip drop and strong stamina → One More Stroke to win.
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Rationale: Chuggy appears transformed since switching to fences, producing two polished victories that highlight improved balance, sharper jumping and increased tactical speed. His latest Warwick win showcased an ability to travel strongly while maintaining accuracy at each fence—qualities crucial to novice chasers climbing the ranks. Although a 9lb rise adds a challenge, today’s race looks noticeably easier on paper. The drop in trip should not hinder him, as he possesses the cruising speed to dictate when needed. With Dan Skelton excelling with progressive handicappers and the horse thriving physically and mentally, a hat-trick is entirely within reach.
Summary: Rapid chase progression and easier task → Chuggy to win
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Rationale: Made U Blush introduces herself to hurdling with a profile that blends Flat ability and strong genetic credentials. Winning over ten furlongs on the level hints at stamina reserves essential for juveniles tackling timber. Being by Masar adds class, while her dam’s sprinting influence contributes desirable agility. Under the guidance of Dan Skelton, whose record with such recruits is outstanding, she receives expert preparation at a venue close to the stable’s base. She arrives here with freshness, confidence and the physique to adapt quickly to jumping. The race lacks depth, making this a favourable opportunity for her first experience in this sphere.
Summary: Flat talent and expert schooling → Made U Blush to win
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This double balances a fresh-season handicap chaser with a second-time-back hurdler primed to improve. Haut Folin thrives first time out from a handy mark, while One More Stroke is fitter, dropped in trip and well placed to maximise his proven stamina.
- Venetia Williams maintains over a 25% strike-rate at Warwick in December.
- York Tower’s debut second came despite significant mid-race interference.
- Chuggy has won both chase starts with a combined margin exceeding five lengths.
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HAUT FOLIN – 14.55 Warwick
Haut Folin is far from the most straightforward operator, yet his profile reveals a distinctive pattern that is simply too valuable to ignore. Venetia Williams has long been associated with horses who improve significantly with a seasonal reappearance, and this eight-year-old fits that template with remarkable consistency. Although he ended last term with three pulled-up efforts, that sequence is less troubling once you examine his body of work more closely.
A recurring theme with Haut Folin is that his strongest performances tend to land early in his campaigns, when he is at his freshest and before physical or mental wear begins to accumulate. If we rewind through the last two seasons and isolate his opening runs, the numbers become extremely persuasive: six early-season outings produced figures reading 122322. That kind of repeatable pattern demonstrates a horse who thrives when introduced into competition with positive intent, especially after a decent break.
Another compelling detail is today’s handicap mark. Now sitting on 99, he returns to a rating that previously allowed him to get competitive against stronger rivals than those lining up here. Horses dropping back to a workable figure often ignite, particularly when paired with sets of conditions they have already handled effectively.
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Warwick is also an excellent strategic choice. Venetia Williams regularly targets this course in December, and her yard has a notably sharp strike-rate here at this time of year. Turning up at a track where a trainer repeatedly excels is rarely a coincidence; it tends to reflect the stable’s understanding of the course’s rhythm, fences and layout. Pairing that stable proficiency with Charlie Deutsch—whose cool, balanced riding style complements horses that can be quirky—adds another layer of confidence.
Ground conditions are forecast to suit a horse who appreciates an honest test without needing extremes underfoot, while the race shape looks manageable for one making his seasonal debut. He does not require a huge field to track into, and the likely tempo should enable him to travel comfortably before being asked to stretch in the final third of the race.
There will be risk, as with any horse who does not deliver the same level every time, but this is precisely the setup that brings out Haut Folin’s best. If he runs to his early-season profile—and evidence strongly indicates he can—he becomes a major player in this handicap and represents value at today’s odds.
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ONE MORE STROKE – 14:45 Newcastle
One More Stroke is an appealing proposition on his second run back after wind surgery, dropping slightly in trip at a track that rewards strong travellers with stamina in reserve. His seasonal return at Wetherby was much better than the bare result suggests: he travelled well for a long way, shaped positively in the main, and understandably weakened late on after a lay-off and that breathing procedure.
There were mitigating factors, too. Losing a shoe during the race is never ideal, especially for a horse trying to maintain balance and traction late on. Despite that, he still showed enough commitment and fluency to suggest the engine is very much intact. With that preparatory run under his belt, he should strip much fitter here and be more capable of sustaining his effort all the way to the line.
The decision to bring him back to around 2m4f at Newcastle looks clever. This trip plays to his stamina without emphasising an all-out slog, and the likely pace scenario should allow Brian Hughes to adopt a positive ride. Hughes is one of the most tactically astute jockeys in the weighing room; expect him to have One More Stroke handy, using his proven staying power to put pressure on rivals who might not be as strong through the latter stages.
Off an official mark of 113, he does not look harshly treated, particularly considering that recent run came under less-than-ideal circumstances. Donald McCain is adept at bringing horses forward from wind surgery and finding the right next step in handicaps. This race feels exactly that: a manageable test where fitness, tactical positioning and stamina can all work in One More Stroke’s favour.
CHUGGY – 13.25 Warwick
Chuggy’s transformation since switching to the larger obstacles has been striking. Winless over hurdles, he has blossomed into a sharp, forward-going chaser whose rhythm and jumping fluency have propelled him to consecutive successes at Uttoxeter and Warwick. Although the handicapper has reacted with a 9lb rise, he now drops into slightly less demanding company.
Dan Skelton’s team continues to excel with these progressive types, and the return to the minimum trip should not inconvenience a horse that travels strongly and jumps with economy. He remains lightly raced as a chaser and could well complete the treble.
MADE U BLUSH – 12.25 Warwick
Made U Blush arrives with an intriguing profile: a Flat-bred filly stepping into the jumping sphere under the guidance of a yard that thrives with such transitions. Her pedigree is notable—by Derby winner Masar and out of a mare by Exceed And Excel—meaning the balance between stamina and speed should prove ideal for juvenile hurdles.
Winning over ten furlongs on the Flat demonstrates a level of athleticism and staying power that often translates well to novice hurdling. With Skelton operating virtually on home turf and known for preparing youngsters meticulously, she appears primed to deliver a bold first run over obstacles.
🧪 Daily Super Double
For those who like a small-stakes multiple, today’s Daily Super Double combines one British selection and one Irish fancy to create a cross-card interest.
- Haut Folin – 14:55 Warwick
- One More Stroke – 14:45 Newcastle
Super Double rationale:
This double balances a fresh-season handicap chaser with a second-time-back hurdler primed to improve. Haut Folin thrives first time out from a handy mark, while One More Stroke is fitter, dropped in trip and well placed to maximise his proven stamina.
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