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Saturday cards at Sandown and Wetherby always attract serious punters, and today’s programme looks ideal for those who enjoy mixing top level quality with shrewd value angles. Below you will find four carefully argued selections built around proven form, clear tactical reasoning and realistic expectations about ground, pace and fitness.
We start with a championship chase at Sandown, move through a fascinating novice contest, tackle a key handicap hurdle, then finish with an improving chaser at Wetherby who could still be ahead of the assessor. Each section explains the context of the race, why the chosen horse is preferred and how the betting angle fits into a wider staking plan.
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Rationale: A progressive two mile chaser who has already produced a dominant course and distance success over Jonbon. Prepared with this Tingle Creek in mind, he brings Grade 1 winning form, sharp jumping and tactical pace. The signs suggest he now holds the strongest claims in a high class renewal.
Summary: Sharper, less exposed and already dominant over course and distance → Il Etait Temps to win.
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Rationale: Made an outstanding start to his chasing career at Uttoxeter, jumping fluently and winning by a wide margin. The runner up has strongly franked the form. Sandown’s sharp test should suit his efficient style, and he looks better tuned than main rival Lulamba for this particular trip and scenario.
Summary: Slick first time over fences and rock solid collateral form → Lump Sum to win.
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Rationale: Last year’s winner returns to the same race with fresh legs and a proven love for Sandown. Form from that victory has aged very well. He handles soft conditions, tends to run big races off a break and looks fairly treated to mount a serious defence of his crown.
Summary: Proven winner of this race who thrives fresh and handles soft ground → Knickerbockerglory to win.
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Rationale: An improving chaser who has found his stride since joining Paul Robson and switching to fences. His latest second at Newcastle, in a stronger contest, reads well in this weaker field. With a refitted tongue tie and a fair mark, he has every chance of gaining a deserved win.
Summary: Upward curve over fences and strong recent second in a better race → Athair Mor to win.
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Combining Il Etait Temps and Lump Sum pairs a proven Grade 1 chaser with a novice who looks tailor made for Sandown’s fences. Both have already advertised their suitability to today’s tasks, and their form lines are trending upwards. Together they create a focused, aggressive double built on clear evidence.
- Il Etait Temps has already beaten Jonbon over this very course and distance, pulling clear without being fully extended.
- Lump Sum’s Uttoxeter chase form has been emphatically boosted by wide margin wins from Jax Junior.
- Knickerbockerglory returns to the exact race he dominated last year, with the form working out strongly.
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15:00 Sandown – Il Etait Temps
Race: 15:00 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase, Grade 1 (Il Etait Temps vs Jonbon and others)
Rationale:
The Tingle Creek is one of the most prestigious two mile chases in the calendar, historically dominated by top class specialists who jump fast, travel sweetly and handle Sandown’s stiff finish. This year much of the conversation understandably revolves around Jonbon’s attempt at a famous hat trick, yet a hard headed assessment of recent evidence suggests that Il Etait Temps may now hold the stronger winning claims.
Jonbon’s record on paper is superb, but patterns in his recent performances hint that he might be edging away from his absolute peak. The Shloer Chase run was notably flat, with his usual zest missing at a crucial stage. When a horse who has been so reliable suddenly drops below his normal level, you want to see a clear reason and a strong bounce back. Instead, we have a combination of wind surgery and the addition of cheekpieces, which can feel like connections searching for solutions rather than polishing a finished product.
By contrast, Il Etait Temps looks very much like a horse whose best days over fences could still be ahead. As a novice he racked up a string of high class victories, including multiple Grade 1s at flagship Irish festivals. Those wins were not flukes; they showcased a potent blend of sharp jumping, high cruising speed and the ability to quicken from a strong pace. That exact skill set is tailor made for a race like the Tingle Creek where errors are punished and rhythm is everything.
His return to Sandown in April for the Celebration Chase is particularly significant. Over the same course and distance, and on similarly demanding ground, he produced a performance full of authority, travelling like the best horse throughout before pulling away from Jonbon by a decisive margin. Importantly, he did so without Townend needing to empty the tank, which hints there was more in reserve if required. When you have hard evidence that a horse thoroughly enjoys a track and has already beaten the supposed favourite there, it demands respect.
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Another factor in his favour is the way Willie Mullins places his top chasers. Powerful Irish yards do not treat a Tingle Creek tilt as an afterthought. The quiet spin at Clonmel looks very much like a fitness builder, designed to bring him to Sandown match sharp without exposing him to a brutal race beforehand. That kind of campaign planning often proves decisive when margins are fine.
Tactically, Il Etait Temps should get a race shape to suit. Others may feel obliged to force the issue, which allows him to stalk the leaders, pop his fences and deliver his challenge late when Sandown’s hill turns this into a proper test. He has already shown he can sustain a strong pace and still find extra at the death, and that closing kick is exactly what Jonbon appeared to lack on his latest start.
In summary, we have a progressive seven year old with fresh legs, proven Grade 1 class, a clear liking for the track and a preparation aimed squarely at this target. Jonbon will have his supporters out of loyalty and sentiment, but on balance of evidence, Il Etait Temps looks the most likely winner of this year’s Tingle Creek.
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Lump Sum (1.50 Sandown)
Race: 13:50 Sandown – Novices’ Chase (Lump Sum vs Lulamba and others)
Rationale:
This novices’ chase brings together smart up and comers, but Lump Sum stands out as the runner with the most immediate chasing profile. His Uttoxeter debut over fences was not merely a win, it was the sort of decisive success that signals a horse has found his true discipline. He jumped with precision, travelled strongly and then powered clear to win by a wide margin without being fully extended.
The form of that race has received a hefty boost. The runner up, Jax Junior, subsequently went on to defeat Jeriko Du Reponet by a substantial distance at Kempton, turning what looked a routine novice chase into a standout piece of collateral evidence. When the horses you have dismissed comfortably start racking up impressive wins in decent company, you can be confident your own performance should be marked up.
Lulamba is clearly a high quality horse on his own achievements, particularly over hurdles, and plenty will naturally gravitate towards him. However, he looks a type who will enjoy a stronger stamina test over longer trips as the season unfolds. Sandown’s two mile trip with attacking fences might feel just a little sharp for him at this stage of his chasing education, whereas Lump Sum already appears comfortable operating at pace.
Another plus for Lump Sum is his compact, athletic build, which allows him to adjust at a fence quickly, shorten when required and still maintain speed away from his obstacles. Novice chases at Sandown are often decided by which horses can keep their shapes when the pressure comes on down the back straight and into the Railway fences. On what we have seen so far, Lump Sum looks very likely to cope with that examination.
Given his fluent transition to the larger obstacles, the strength of his recent form line and the suspicion that his main rival may be better suited by longer distances later in the campaign, Lump Sum appeals as the one to side with in this key novice event.
KNICKERBOCKERGLORY – 14:25 Sandown
Race: 14:25 Sandown – Handicap Hurdle (Knickerbockerglory and rivals)
Rationale:
Some horses simply come alive when fresh, and Knickerbockerglory is a prime example. He landed this very race twelve months ago in resounding fashion, travelling close to the pace, jumping neatly and asserting with a burst of speed that left a good field struggling to lay a glove on him.
That victory has aged extremely well. The runner up, Nemean Lion, has since developed into a high class performer, which automatically upgrades the quality of the form. Subsequent runs from Knickerbockerglory in strong handicaps were solid rather than spectacular, but he was rarely beaten far and often shaped a little better than finishing positions suggested. Returning to this track, in a race he already knows how to win, is therefore a major positive.
Conditions should also play into his hands. Sandown’s softened ground can catch out quicker, speedier types who prefer a sounder surface, yet Knickerbockerglory has shown he can operate effectively when the mud is flying. His previous success on heavy underlines that a further ease in the going is unlikely to inconvenience him. Indeed, it may increase his chances of bossing the race from a prominent position, grinding the finish out of less resolute opponents.
Dan Skelton’s stable tends to have its horses very ready when targeting specific handicaps, and the fact they are coming back to the same contest with the same horse suggests this has been pencilled in as a major early season objective. A small rise in the weights compared with last year looks entirely manageable given his proven course form and suitability to the conditions.
ATHAIR MOR – 11:40 Wetherby
Race: 11:40 Wetherby – Handicap Chase (Athair Mor and rivals)
Rationale:
Athair Mor is an interesting type because his pedigree leans towards the Flat, yet he is starting to look more at home over fences with each outing. That blend of natural pace and newly discovered jumping efficiency often leads to a horse progressing quickly through lower grade chases.
Last season he was a lightly raced maiden hurdler, still learning his craft and lacking the physical maturity to fully capitalise on his ability. Since joining Paul Robson and switching to fences, he has looked a more focused and effective performer. His latest second at Newcastle was a clear step forward.
On that occasion he chased home a progressive front runner who dictated throughout, leaving the rest to scramble for minor money. Athair Mor, wearing a refitted tongue tie, travelled kindly, kept finding under pressure and pulled well clear of the remaining runners despite never quite getting to the winner. That sort of effort in defeat often points to an imminent breakthrough success.
This Wetherby race does not appear as deep, and a marginal rise in the weights should not prevent further improvement. The track’s layout, with its fair fences and long straights, should suit his economical jumping style and allow his cruising speed to be used to maximum effect. With a bit of natural progression and a similar level of application, he can easily go one better.
🧪 Daily Super Double
For today’s Daily Super Double, we combine:
- Il Etait Temps to win the 15:00 Sandown Tingle Creek Chase and Lump Sum to win the 13:50 Sandown novices’ chase.
This pair links a progressive handicap hurdler with a highly promising novice, giving a blend of solidity and upside in a compact two leg bet.
Super Double rationale:
Combining Il Etait Temps and Lump Sum pairs a proven Grade 1 chaser with a novice who looks tailor made for Sandown’s fences. Both have already advertised their suitability to today’s tasks, and their form lines are trending upwards. Together they create a focused, aggressive double built on clear evidence.
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